Is Syracuse Football A Lost Cause?

[2B20Again]

The more important question for me is whether this is fun. It's sports. It's supposed to be fun. The more the discussion slants toward all the business crap and less about what happens on the field, the less fun it is for me. I know a lot of people like to play armchair gm, but I'm just not interested in all of that. It makes me care less and less.

 

[GoSU96]

Ability to win 10 games in a season one every ten years is not going to mean squat. There is going to be a financial commitment that SU and tons of others aren't going to be able to (or want to) meet. At that point we align with some suitable schools and keep going. Do fans follow, schools stay committed, etc...we shall see

How about every six years?

 

[2B20Again]

I would say it’s not fun, I personally no longer enjoy college sports. I continue to watch SU all sports men and women. Mostly out of habit and out of a misplaced loyalty. A little history. I was an usher at Archibald. Befitted that my dad brought to games. I was there for Jim Brown, foe the sizable seven and the fearsome foursome. I was there in 59 when the number one team in the country was SU starting O and D was number one and the second teams were number Two. I was on a plane coming back from a bowl game when Me Eggers said and I heard it paraphrase “ we want to hang around the top 20, and when our players get to be jr.’s and sr’s we have a shot at top 5 and if we get lucky….” That’s like a pro golfer saying I just want to make the cut. That doesn’t get it done. Simple truth is for SU to be successful the majority of the 20.5 needs to go to football an 10 million from NIL needs to go to Men’s hoops. And a significant $ for LAX and women’s hoops. In order for that to work NIL need to be in the range if 15 to 17.5 million. In addition, NCAA needs to cap NIL 20/25 Mill for ALL SSCHOOLS PERIOD. The still give the big money schools a 2,5 to 5 million advantage but at least a large number of schools could be competitive. Fat old man out.

 

[Newhouser]

How about every six years?

Great point you win. Doesn't change the point the ante to be at the table is not going to be easy for this University, it's donors or fan base.

 

[kcsu]

How about every six years?

If Steve hadnt been injured i think we could have made a great run. Fran knows what hes doing and SU football is in good shape. NIL helps us

 

[2B20Again]

If Steve hadnt been injured i think we could have made a great run. Fran knows what hes doing and SU football is in good shape. NIL helps us

 

[2B20Again]

100%

 

[JoeCollege]

I stopped at "corpulent woman has yet to croon" and gave you a like.

You, kind sir, are a gentleman and a scholar.

 

[Offthedome]

Who knows? Ten years ago the thought of college players getting paid over the table was a pipe dream. Ten years from now what other massive changes arise that impact our position positively or negatively? And money to pay players is only one factor in success. Culture, coaching, hell, even luck, can lead to a conference championship every four or five years, and other than the big time blue bloods, who wins every year? Even teams that still have the aura of being big time football programs really aren't in the national conversation much any more (Auburn, Michigan State, Nebraska, USC, for ex.).

If we make the playoffs every five years, hell, yes, sign me up. Is that feasible? I have absolutely no idea.

 

[sdhall01]

Honestly, I had the most fun when we tried to hire Chris Ash. Now it’s just sad.

 

[sweetpea]

Cuse should have made the playoff two seasons ago. No reason that can’t happen again.

Should have beat Stanford and probably BC. Very well could have lost to Georgia Tech, UNLV, Va Tech, and Miami. I think 10 - 3 was about the best you could hope for looking back at it.

 

[tipphill]

We dance around this question a lot on this forum, so I figured it was time to pose it explicitly. Here is what we know:

1. Each school may set aside $20.5 million in revenue to split among all athletes, with any additional coming from NIL.
2. They claim that NIL payments will now be regulated more strictly to ensure that it is a legitimate NIL deal.
3. These wealthy boosters are very likely able to get around increased enforcement via actually putting these kids in ads.
4. Therefore, while the $20.5 million will help us significantly, it will not bring us to parity with peer schools.
5. We will spend most, though not all, of the $20.5 million on football.

Just doing some quick googling, it appears the top 25 football programs had NIL budgets starting at around $10 million, with the top 10 and especially top 5 being way above that. With athletic departments now being allowed to infuse cash directly, NIL has become a supplementary way to pay players rather than primary. One of the major questions people have is how that will impact donor investment into NIL. This is speculation, but my belief is that NIL donor activity will increase as a result, especially at the "rich" schools. That being said, we are probably looking at having a budget anywhere from half to 75% of our top level peers, depending on our corporate support.

It doesn't seem to me that we can compete in such an environment, as our best players will always get poached. Why wouldn't a Clemson or Florida State type of program just buy our best players every year? People may point to Indiana or Vanderbilt as examples of why we can still win, but these schools have far more resources than we do and have only been able to sustain this level of football for 1 or 2 seasons so far. This seems like a situation where we have been rendered structurally incapable of competing at the highest level of college football.

That being said, if you take the $20.5 million and apply it 100% to men's basketball, suddenly you probably have about $25 million annually in player payment budget. It has been publicly reported that the "$10 million club" is the gold standard currently for college basketball program NIL spending. 9 of the 10 programs in that $10 million club play high level football, and of those only Duke will spend a bulk of those funds on basketball. If the athletic department makes a conscious decision to pivot to a basketball centric focus, the basketball program actually could sustain one of the highest NIL budgets in the nation on an annual basis. At that point you would have a program with one of the largest fanbases, one of the largest NIL budgets, in relatively close proximity to hotbeds like NYC & Philadelphia, you can see how it brings basketball back to being a potential powerhouse.

That being said, it's not so cut and dry even if the AD wanted to make the pivot I am suggesting. The ACC will insist that we maintain high level football, so doing this would functionally mean we are telling the ACC to kick us out. It may lead to a few seasons of putting a shell of a football team out there to get slaughtered every fall. We would also be banking on the Big East taking us back when an eventual ACC split happens, which I think is a fairly safe bet.

To be clear, none of this speculation is something I enjoy stating. I have been a Syracuse football fan since I went to my first game at home against Rutgers when I was 11 years old back in 2003. I was a fan through Perry Patterson, Greg Paulus, Ryan Nassib, Terrell Hunt, AJ Long, Rex Culpepper, Zack Mahoney, Eric Dungey, you name it. But at this point I am looking at two floundering programs, and on the football side I just can't convince myself that we have any hope of competing at the highest level going forward. That being said, I would rather go all in on basketball with the prayer that we can get the program back to where it was when I was a kid than keep pretending we have a chance at competing in football.

we need to go elsewhere fcs maybe.

 

[DocFlanders]

Should have beat Stanford and probably BC. Very well could have lost to Georgia Tech, UNLV, Va Tech, and Miami. I think 10 - 3 was about the best you could hope for looking back at it.

My gut had no worries in beating all of them, other than UNLV. For the first time in a long time it didn’t matter the down or distance, it just felt so comfortable and confident that McCord and the receivers would get it done. But losing to the two worst ACC teams on the schedule was a killer.. oh what could have been…not saying we would have won it all but I bet we would have caused some serious anxiety for our next matchups….

 

[llandz]

Do we have any billionaire boosters?

Yes, we do have billionaire SU donors. But idk if they donate to sports or not.

 

[GoSU96]

we need to go elsewhere fcs maybe.

Of course we do. It’s SO obvious.

 

[GoSU96]

If Steve hadnt been injured i think we could have made a great run. Fran knows what hes doing and SU football is in good shape. NIL helps us

Floor was six, ceiling eight (?)

 

[ECE '76]

It is not fun in the current form.

Which is why I would kinda prefer the Super League to happen and we can go back to playing collegiate sports. Having every conference game within driving distance and round robin BBall.

The rat race is a turn off. Especially when we have no chance in the system. Chasing every last dollar (even pro sports are less fun now because of this) will drive me completely away. I can go watch Army or a nearby FCS and actually see college football (saving a lot of time, money, stress). The traditions and pageantry are being phased out for commercialization. What makes college football unique should be embraced and not minimized.

Since all the rules have been blown up for college sports, it's time to blow up the silly rule that your football program has to be in a league with all your other sports. The P4 FB programs should be in football-only conferences. All other sports should be in regional leagues with 8 to 10 members each. It's time to stop the insanity of sending field hockey teams [and all the other sports] across the country to play their league games.

 

[ECE '76]

...
For me the worst case scenario would be SU in the B12. That means that both the B1G/SEC expanded and that the ACC is dead. We are chasing waterfalls by joining the B12 when at that point IMO it is better to pull back a bit and stay in an Northeastern centric ACC 2.0 instead. Being in the B12 would end SU FB for me.

I don't see SU going to the Big XII. And I sure hope they don't go.

There are too many ACC teams for the Big 2 and Big XII to take all of them. Most of the current ACC schools will be stuck with each other in the long haul, and also that will be what is their best option. I'm pretty sure the first 6 listed below will be always together, and really the first 15 likely aren't going anywhere either. And with SU, that makes a 16 team league.

Teams SU football will be playing in 2036 and beyond, in order of likelihood, IMHO:

BC
Wake Forest
UConn
Duke
GaTech
WVU

Pitt
Louisville
VaTech
NC State
SMU
UVa
Cal
Stanford
Cincinnati

UCF
USF
ND
UNC
FSU
Miami
Clemson

 

[PhatOrange]

Not compared to Iowa State or Buttgers

 

[Dinkyspond]

If Steve hadnt been injured i think we could have made a great run. Fran knows what hes doing and SU football is in good shape. NIL helps us

I can't believe anybody can say the program is in good shape after watching 8 consecutive blowouts, the worst team in major college football since September 28. It's more than just losing Angeli. The Oline and defense were a mess. Again the injuries with no depth which seems to happen most years no matter who the head coach or strength and conditioning coach are. Good programs find ways to be competitive when a starting QB goes down. This program failed miserably. 6 wins next year, anything less and end this risky HCFB experiment.

 

[Hawknate144]

I can't believe anybody can say the program is in good shape after watching 8 consecutive blowouts, the worst team in major college football since September 28. It's more than just losing Angeli. The Oline and defense were a mess. Again the injuries with no depth which seems to happen most years no matter who the head coach or strength and conditioning coach are. Good programs find ways to be competitive when a starting QB goes down. This program failed miserably. 6 wins next year, anything less and end this risky Brown experiment.

Umass was worse.

 

[Dinkyspond]

Umass was worse.

UMass is not major college, P4 football

 

[Hawknate144]

UMass is not major college, P4 football

Ok, when I heard Major I thought FBS, not P4, then you are correct.

 

[baggerbob]

Did you watch those last 8 games? All it takes is one bad loss for a coach to lose a percentage of the fan base. Duke was a stinker in all facets of the game, Pitt featured a major head coach error that tilted the game, and we essentially tried to lose UNC/ND/BC. Miami, Georgia Tech, and SMU were the only games where it seemed like we had some oomph out of the gate... three road games. I always felt like GRob was incompetent... not that he was trying to lose. I have never seen a coach burn through goodwill faster without a scandal. Can he get it back? Sure. But we are back to needing proof...

I still think Nixon should have been fired after doing nothing for 8 games.

 

[Fat tire 13]

The problem with the NIL funding is people getting burned. Portnoy gave a couple hundred grand specifically for one kid and the kid got injured never played a down and announced he’s transferring. Quinn Ewars made millions at Ohio state and people were furious he left for Texas and they didn’t get their money out of the investment. You have to know this is a possibility going into it, but I think it makes certain companies hesitant

This is an important point

The entire landscape is fast moving and dynamic. People are extrapolating current trends and that may be the wrong way to look at it

I believe we will see discipline in NIL in the next few years. The money is huge but not infinite. It’s very difficult to predict exactly how it will shake out in terms of future realignment, peak NIL, etc.

As a fan it sucks having a completely new roster each year

As a program all we can do is hire people to adapt and thrive in the ever changing landscape. I think Fran has many good qualities for this challenge even with his inexperience in other areas

It feels silly to give up because of the massive disruption. All it takes is a couple smart moves and you’re back in the mix.