It's nice to finally be proud about some offensive stats...

[cuse309]

Did anyone else notice the importance of picking up at least 3-4 yards on first down? I know that's generally important no matter what offense you run, but it seems doubly important in this scheme with this team. I can't seem to find play by play stats, but I'm willing to bet that on the 4 td's, we began our first drive with positive yardage, allowing them to get into the tempo and rhythm, that put Louisville on their heels. When we started our drives going no-where, the rest of the drive looked stagnant.

 

[Chip]

I do agree that Dungey needs to not leap and hit in the air anymore this year. That was crazy.

Once Jackson did it, I knew Dungey would at some point.

Hey, that's my move!

Not anymore.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Wrong? Numbers don't lie. They just are. Points per game is a false narrative if you don't account for pace of play.

It doesn't take an statistics degree to understand you will score more points if you run 25 more plays per game. Additionally, you will give up more points per game. It's simple math.

Pretty sure Millhouse understands.

He does, and he did a pretty good analysis a while ago that showed a stronger correlation with winning for teams that score more (have better offenses) than defend well (have better defenses).

People want to believe that all things being equal it doesn't matter what you do so long as have the talent to execute it well.

Thing is, all things aren't equal. We're not in a recruiting hot bed. We're not in a region of the country where the football programs offer much innovation in terms of style. We're the only program that plays home games in a Dome. Traditional football has lead us to being a major conference door mat for the past 15 years.

Add up our reality, and you (should) come to certain conclusions, and thankfully we're on a road that takes our unique circumstances and gives us a chance to be much more competitive. And, that will allow the fans to have more fun along the way. If it takes some time to get there, so be it. We certainly let a pro-style, defense first mentality run the clock out for a good long while.

Change is uncomfortable, but the familiar was getting us nowhere. It was decent at providing the illusion of competitiveness though.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

All of these people who think football is only based on offense have that understanding because they play video game football or have a fantasy team where that is the case .

Or, they intentionally go to the extreme in their stance on offense because they're really ready for something different.

 

[CousCuse]

Or, they intentionally go to the extreme in their stance on offense because they're really ready for something different.

I believe that SS was showing progress and it was going to take more time . Maybe , Dino will be successful and that is going to take time . He has a good chance of things working out , if people are patient .

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I believe that SS was showing progress and it was going to take more time . Maybe , Dino will be successful and that is going to take time . He has a good chance of things working out , if people are patient .

I can understand why people thought SS was showing progress. I hate to say it, but they were wrong. The best we were ever going to do under him was eke out wins and scrape into bowl games. If we were just like every other bottom third P5 program maybe that's not a bad dream. But we are different because we have a Dome.

 

[CousCuse]

I can understand why people thought SS was showing progress. I hate to say it, but they were wrong. The best we were ever going to do under him was eke out wins and scrape into bowl games. If we were just like every other bottom third P5 program maybe that's not a bad dream. But we are different because we have a Dome.

He lost all of his quarterbacks 2 years in a row . If Babers were to lose Dungey , Mahoney and Culpepper , how good do you think the offense would look ? It was some bad luck which I hope Dino doesn't encounter . If injuries do occur , that will have to be taken into consideration to the progress being made .

 

[donniesyracuse]

Wrong. Its points per game that count not yards.

What really matters is the percentage of possessions in which you score touchdowns.

 

[donniesyracuse]

No doubt that the rate could and should be higher. But more chances means more time to recover from mistakes. That's huge.

If you're down 21 in the first half and you have 9 more possessions it's a lot more hopeful than 5.

I don't need to be sold on the merits of the system. I was pointing out that the offense did not perform very well, which is fine. I didn't expect the offense to be fantastic early in the season.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

He lost all of his quarterbacks 2 years in a row . If Babers were to lose Dungey , Mahoney and Culpepper , how good do you think the offense would look ? It was some bad luck which I hope Dino doesn't encounter . If injuries do occur , that will have to be taken into consideration to the progress being made .

The injuries obviously didn't help. But the bigger issue to me is that the staff's mentality lowered the ceiling of what our program was capable of.

 

[CousCuse]

What really matters is the percentage of possessions in which you score touchdowns.

Not points per possession ?

 

[donniesyracuse]

Not points per possession ?

Points per possession is what matters, you're right.

I just usually focus on touchdowns, because most of the time when ones subtracts points scored by other means from the final score, the team that scored the most touchdowns still wins.

 

[CousCuse]

Points per possession is what matters, you're right.

I just usually focus on touchdowns, because most of the time when you eliminate the points scored by other means from the final score, the team that scored the most touchdowns still wins.

I am thinking that possibly a TD is worth more that the extra 4 points as compared to a FG in this metric . It has to do with realizing full offensive potential , and there are a number of variables . Out of the blue I would give a TD the value of 10 and make the FG 3.333 . This only pertains to fast offenses , not conventional .

 

[cuse309]

I am thinking that possibly a TD is worth more that the extra 4 points as compared to a FG in this metric . It has to do with realizing full offensive potential , and there are a number of variables . Out of the blue I would give a TD the value of 10 and make the FG 3.333 . This only pertains to fast offenses , not conventional .

3.333? I came up with 3.334. You must not have carried a 1 or something.

 

[GoSU96]

Irony here is that people who gripped about epic beatdowns and meathead punters are dismissive of an epic beatdown and a team that is 10th in punts per game with 7 per.

Not going to get hung up on it, Lville was an excellent defense last year and returned most of those guys.

While the defense is a real problem the more immediate issue is the offense.

If you are going to play this style you need to be better than 5.56 yds per play, you need to be better than 43% on 3rd down, and you need to score more than 30pts per game, because otherwise all you are doing is what Shafer tried to avoid, giving the opponent the opportunity to blow you out early.

One encouraging thing is the low number of TO's given the number of plays.

They get to 6.5 per play and 49% things will be radically different. Total yards will be there, 3 and outs will be cut way down, and the points will be there.

 

[dasher]

Irony here is that people who gripped about epic beatdowns and meathead punters are dismissive of an epic beatdown and a team that is 10th in punts per game with 7 per.

Not going to get hung up on it, Lville was an excellent defense last year and returned most of those guys.

While the defense is a real problem the more immediate issue is the offense.

If you are going to play this style you need to be better than 5.56 yds per play, you need to be better than 43% on 3rd down, and you need to score more than 30pts per game, because otherwise all you are doing is what Shafer tried to avoid, giving the opponent the opportunity to blow you out early.

One encouraging thing is the low number of TO's given the number of plays.

They get to 6.5 per play and 49% things will be radically different. Total yards will be there, 3 and outs will be cut way down, and the points will be there.

I think what the people are happy about is that we have an offense that is willing to take chances. There is no question that we have to get better.

 

[CousCuse]

3.333? I came up with 3.334. You must not have carried a 1 or something.

Math

 

[TheCusian]

I don't need to be sold on the merits of the system. I was pointing out that the offense did not perform very well, which is fine. I didn't expect the offense to be fantastic early in the season.

Right. My point was they didn't perform very well, but because of the amount of possessions they had more time to make up for it. (So I wasn't disagreeing, but adding to your point)

 

[TheCusian]

Irony here is that people who gripped about epic beatdowns and meathead punters are dismissive of an epic beatdown and a team that is 10th in punts per game with 7 per. Not going to get hung up on it, Lville was an excellent defense last year and returned most of those guys. While the defense is a real problem the more immediate issue is the offense. If you are going to play this style you need to be better than 5.56 yds per play, you need to be better than 43% on 3rd down, and you need to score more than 30pts per game, because otherwise all you are doing is what Shafer tried to avoid, giving the opponent the opportunity to blow you out early. One encouraging thing is the low number of TO's given the number of plays. They get to 6.5 per play and 49% things will be radically different. Total yards will be there, 3 and outs will be cut way down, and the points will be there.

100% right on it needing the O be better.

Even if you're giving up a lot points early, you've given yourself a chance to comeback due to increase in possessions. You can absorb poor performances early, more easily.

 

[SWC75]

Numbers are certainly interesting and revealing. I use them all the time. But games are won by total points, not rates. If you gain 400 yards and score 28 points on a defense with several NFL prospects on it, that's a good game no matter how you did it.

 

[GoSU96]

I think what the people are happy about is that we have an offense that is willing to take chances. There is no question that we have to get better.

There's two parts of the risk reward equation, and without reward, bad things result.

Good defense is a risk migrator for taking extra risk on offense, bad defense is a multiplier.

Playing fast in and of itself isn't an offense.

I have no problem taking lumps, but then I wasn't expecting to beat Lville coming off a win against Colgate either.

 

[SWC75]

Irony here is that people who gripped about epic beatdowns and meathead punters are dismissive of an epic beatdown and a team that is 10th in punts per game with 7 per.

Not going to get hung up on it, Lville was an excellent defense last year and returned most of those guys.

While the defense is a real problem the more immediate issue is the offense.

If you are going to play this style you need to be better than 5.56 yds per play, you need to be better than 43% on 3rd down, and you need to score more than 30pts per game, because otherwise all you are doing is what Shafer tried to avoid, giving the opponent the opportunity to blow you out early.

One encouraging thing is the low number of TO's given the number of plays.

They get to 6.5 per play and 49% things will be radically different. Total yards will be there, 3 and outs will be cut way down, and the points will be there.

I'll toss you another one: Last year Shafer was pilloried for having Dungey in the Louisville game long after it had been decided. Why aren't people talking about that now?

 

[donniesyracuse]

If you gain 400 yards and score 28 points on a defense with several NFL prospects on it, that's a good game no matter how you did it.

I don't agree at all.

It's like a basketball player scoring 20 points because he took a lot of shots. Did he still have a good game if he shot 20% from the field?

 

[TheCusian]

I'll toss you another one: Last year Shafer was pilloried for having Dungey in the Louisville game long after it had been decided. Why aren't people talking about that now?

They did in the game thread. I thought about it once they put in their #2.

The difference is Shafer said he thought we could comeback and it was impossible. Babers says it and we've already seen them score two TD in 5 min.

 

[SWC75]

I don't agree at all.

It's like a basketball player scoring 20 points because he took a lot of shots. Did he still have a good game if he shot 20% from the field?

When they announce today's scores, do they announce the points per possession? Contributory stats can show where you need improvement, (and we certainly do), but they don't decide games. If you gain a lot of yards and score a lot, you gained a lot of yards and scored a lot.