It's the Offense, stupid!

[Crusty]

The whole key to our season lies with the Offense. (Hackett, are you listening?)

The anecdotal evidence seems to be pointing towards an improved defense this year. Comments have been floating around about how much better the DLine looks and our LB corp seems solid if not deep. While CB's are a major unknown, we expect to see solid play from the safeties. Shafer is an excellent DC and changes in the staff may help as well. All in all, enough optimism to forecast a reasonable improvement in the points against, especially as the season goes along.

The offense is another situation altogether. All you need to know is in the stats. We played dink and dunk last year and defenses stiffened as the field shortened. While the stats below are no mystery to any of us, they are worth reviewing.

1. Nassib had a 62.4% completion pct.
2. We had the second lowest yards per passing attempt in the conference.
3. 7th best total yards in the conference
4. 6th best total passing yards in the conference
5. 6th best total rushing yards in the conference
6. 7th total points in the conference
7. 7th points per game in the conference

Whether talent, scheme or both, these stats are miserable. As well advertised, the staff is trying to address the problems and are looking for ways to extend plays and to force defenses out of stacking the box on every play. The success of the season would seem to hinge on how successful these efforts are - period.

The OLine has to deliver at least an average performance. While it seemed that the OLine was going to be more experienced and hopefully somewhat better, the injury bug has just upset that apple cart. Perhaps, the most accurate assessment is we really have no idea what to expect. What we do know is that if the OLine play does not improve we will have a long season.

Assuming that Pugh gets healthy by the end of September and the OLine performs at a higher level, we are still without a proven 1,000 yard rusher. Nobody has a clue whether Smith will be that guy or if a running game by committee will do good things.

Nassib is Nassib. As mentioned above, he completed 62.4% of his passes last year with the second lowest yards per attempt in the conference. I don't see what is going to change to improve that stat this year. We all realize that he is not a good deep passer so, unless we have big time YAC, this number will be the same. The only player on the roster than seems capable of breaking plays is Broyld. However, while Broyld is certainly a welcomed bright spot, he is only a freshman and there is a limit to what can be expected.

Special teams cannot get worse. If this new kicker is really a touchback machine that could help somewhat and we probably have some redshirted players we have not seen in games before and they could be a real pleasant surprise.

This is the transitional year, If we can hold our own against a tough schedule, we will be much improved in the next few years and this long nightmare will finally come to an end. I plan to be hopeful and patient while retaining my right to bitch and moan.

 

[orange03]

Agree. At some point I hope we can get away from the tight end drag and open things up a bit. Obviously we don't have the playmakers on the outside like most of the elite teams do, but Hacket and/or Doug need to add some snap to the offense.

 

[SoBristol]

Many good points there.
You could say we are in better shape at CB with two returning starters, decent back-ups, and frosh -- and less so at safety where we don't know who will lead the way at FS and there is no obvious back up at SS. We could use interceptions -- Phillip Thomas led us in that department, and isn't back. Plus, the pass rush was mediocre last year, and the best guy (Chandler) is in the NFL. No pass rush = trouble for any secondary.
And, as we saw in 2010, a stellar defense can carry the team. It isn't only the offense that needs some juice.
For that offense, many project Jerome Smith as a tough runner between the tackles, and like the prospect of Gulley and Broyld providing supplemental running help as wing backs. Not many teams have a returning 1000 yd runner. Our issue won't be Smith, but getting others to carry a good share of the load. The missing ingredients: a deep threat; unknowns to complete the OL; and a creative head coach. Hackett, at least, has inspired 3 of our recruits (the 2 QBs and Provo) -- maybe this is the year when he adds pages to the Marrone playbook to take advantage of what Gulley and Broyld can do to supplement Smith.
I don't expect Nassib to Lemon & Sales to turn into something we haven't seen in a down-the-field passing attack. We might hope to see Gulley and some of the kids contribute yards-after-the-catch; a stat in which we have not been stellar. At a minimum, there is a greater variety of possible weapons and more in reserve than we had last year.