Joe's PER double Starling's , what does it say about offenses | Syracusefan.com

Joe's PER double Starling's , what does it say about offenses

Millhouse

Living Legend
Joined
Aug 16, 2011
Messages
29,201
Like
34,375
Why are mintz and starling taking 44% of our two point shots?

Hall and Girard are taking 20% of their 2 pt shots

I'm worried that Autry doesn't get it

Mintz and starling are not good shooters ok fine. That doesn't mean they have to take more bad two point shots. They could just shoot less.

Autry is from a different era and we have two guys who play like him

If starling was the best we could do, ok, we will see what he does with high school recruits he develops

But I think we will need fresh offensive eyes sooner or later
 
so who should be shooting our shots?

One center doesnt shoot
Brown shoots layups and an occasional 3
Taylor wont shoot
Bell cant stay on the floor
Copeland who knows
Bennie wants to shoot jumpers
The transfer wants to shoot 3s

where do throw the shoots to if you are the coach?

the 2 guys who actually get into the lane?

I dont think they are bad shooters, they take the tougher shots, but they also get the easier shots as well.
 
If these were pull-up jumpers we’re talking about, I’d be on board. But, for the most part, they’re contested layups. The offense is built around getting these guys to the rim. Other than changing that philosophy, I can’t think of a practical alternative to them shooting. They don’t have shooters to kick the ball out to and we don’t want guys clogging the paint when they’re driving.
 
Why are mintz and starling taking 44% of our two point shots?

Hall and Girard are taking 20% of their 2 pt shots

I'm worried that Autry doesn't get it

Mintz and starling are not good shooters ok fine. That doesn't mean they have to take more bad two point shots. They could just shoot less.

Autry is from a different era and we have two guys who play like him

If starling was the best we could do, ok, we will see what he does with high school recruits he develops

But I think we will need fresh offensive eyes sooner or later

It says more about the program and how it was run recently.

Why is Mintz taking 44% of our two point shots? Naheem and Bell and JT and JJ aren't playing well and can't be relied upon consistently.

That's it.
 
Mintz is good and shouldn’t be lumped in with Starling. Starling has the same win shares per 40 minutes as Chris Bell. I personally think Starling should get less minutes, but otherwise I’m not going to freak out over Red. He needs better shooters.
 
As others have said, attacking the rim is our only chance on offense, and those guys are the ones that do it best. Comparing our numbers to Clemson isn't helpful - they have a different team construction (a better one!). Using this as an indictment on Red's understanding of modern offense is quite the leap.
 
Last edited:
The offense isn't - and hasn't been - built to get guards open looks. It's ISO and putbacks. It's long been an issue except that our starters haven't typically transferred, especially a guard, to demonstrate it as starkly as JG3 has.

Joe's PER this season: 20.3. Syracuse in 2022: 15.6 (more or less average). Similar to BPR from Evan Miya.
 
When it became obvious that Starling had no perimeter game
and Taylor couldn't find his shot the offense was in trouble.
There just aren't a lot of RELIABLE alternatives against
opponents that play an average or better defense. It'll
be a challenge to get to 17-18 wins.
 
so who should be shooting our shots?

One center doesnt shoot
Brown shoots layups and an occasional 3
Taylor wont shoot
Bell cant stay on the floor
Copeland who knows
Bennie wants to shoot jumpers
The transfer wants to shoot 3s

where do throw the shoots to if you are the coach?

the 2 guys who actually get into the lane?

I dont think they are bad shooters, they take the tougher shots, but they also get the easier shots as well.
I am baffled at why Starling was the player we needed. This is no shot at him, he might be our best point guard. But it's not like autry has no control over the roster. In the future, he'll have even more control and we will know more then.
 
Mintz is good and shouldn’t be lumped in with Starling. Starling has the same win shares per 40 minutes as Chris Bell. I personally think Starling should get less minutes, but otherwise I’m not going to freak out over Red. He needs better shooters.
I would play cuffe more only not because he's a better player than starting but because he is a different player from mintz
 
The offense isn't - and hasn't been - built to get guards open looks. It's ISO and putbacks. It's long been an issue except that our starters haven't typically transferred, especially a guard, to demonstrate it as starkly as JG3 has.

Joe's PER this season: 20.3. Syracuse in 2022: 15.6 (more or less average). Similar to BPR from Evan Miya.
I hope that changes next year or the year after and if it doesn't, hire a coach who will change it
 
I am baffled at why Starling was the player we needed. This is no shot at him, he might be our best point guard. But it's not like autry has no control over the roster. In the future, he'll have even more control and we will know more then.

In Autry’s defense, the list of programs who wouldn’t have jumped at the chance to get Starling was very short, maybe even zero.
 
I think Red expected Starling to be a better 3 point shooter but likes the other stuff he’s capable of (still has a huge upside) so you roll w the potential and work to get him to max it

The tradeoff in better shooting (Bell and Taylor) to the driving slashing offense combined with better energy all around is what we’re dealing with

I don’t think this has anything to do with the offensive philosophy per the OP. Fears about Red looking for stats to back it up
 
Wait, Starling is 48% inside the arc and Mintz is 47%. Mintz’s TS% is 57%.

Those are good numbers. Guards aren’t usually expected to be above 50% inside the arc if that’s the measuring stick being used here. With this in mind, I have zero issue with their volume of 2pt shots.
 
Last edited:
I hope that changes next year or the year after and if it doesn't, hire a coach who will change it
I don't think it will. I'm also pretty nervous about the upcoming stretch of games after tomorrow night (which is no sure thing either). Going 5-12 down the stretch is a real possibility. Best case might be 10-7 which is a 20 win season.
 
Mintz percentage is deceiving. You need to factor in how often he gets fouled and gets to the line to see his overall effectiveness.
Works out to 57% which would be fine but every other player who shoots in the 50s would also see theirs go up if ft were included

Pj Hall would be at 67% if you counted FTs in his 2p%

(Dividing FTA and FTM by two and adding to 2pa and 2pm)
 
This is included in true shooting percentage I think.

It does.

Judah is at 57% TS% with the burden he bears. Joe is at 63% (and to be clear, kudos to him), but for what Judah is asked to do with our team, 57% is dang good and third highest on the team out of anyone that plays, including being behind Maliq (makes sense why he is the highest) and Naheem (who, let's be real, may have a high TS%, but is super limited elsewhere).

For reference (and this isn't a knock on Joe), but he had 50%, 48% and 56% leading up to this year where he jumped. Again, which is much more a commentary on the program prior than anything else.

Back to Judah -- this team needs to get points in this order: rim, FTs, threes and then whatever occasional jump shot occurs. He has to attack, attack, attack. I am sure Judah would shoot less of the shots he currently takes if he had guys that could reliably just hit a three, let alone dribble more than twice and make the defense really feel fear.

But that's not the case. We need to get other teams in foul trouble so we are shooting the penalty early and then we need to make our FTs.

BTW, Chris Bell's TS% this year is 49%. His career is 51%. He's started every single game. That is nuts. I can go on with others, but just using him as an example.

It's Judah, then Maliq, then a pool of, at best, inconsistent guys and, at worst, guys that shouldn't be in our rotation.
 
Last edited:
I am baffled at why Starling was the player we needed. This is no shot at him, he might be our best point guard. But it's not like autry has no control over the roster. In the future, he'll have even more control and we will know more then.
Red and JJ go back a long ways.
 
Back to Judah -- this team needs to get points in this order: rim, FTs, threes and then whatever occasional jump shot occurs. He has to attack, attack, attack. I am sure Judah would shoot less of the shots he currently takes if he had guys that could reliably just hit a three, let alone dribble more than twice and make the defense really feel fear.
Unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be the case. This for the starting lineup. Second graph: They attempt fewer layups and short 3s than average and take more mid-range jumpers and longer 3s. First graph: but they shoot a worse percentage from those mid-range and long distance threes and they're slightly less than average than D1 average for layups.

I can't control for what teams go into the D1 average, so consider that as well.

1704828367377.png
 
Unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be the case. This for the starting lineup. Second graph: They attempt fewer layups and short 3s than average and take more mid-range jumpers and longer 3s. First graph: but they shoot a worse percentage from those mid-range and long distance threes and they're slightly less than average than D1 average for layups.

I can't control for what teams go into the D1 average, so consider that as well.

View attachment 236317
Was looking at this yesterday. We take way too many shots in the mid range area and we are awful at them.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
167,408
Messages
4,701,872
Members
5,907
Latest member
Jojo123

Online statistics

Members online
59
Guests online
1,610
Total visitors
1,669


Top Bottom