Judah Mintz to test NBA Draft waters

[jncuse]

General fyi, since there appears to be a misconception on draft position guarantees in the NBA when drafted in the second round. There is now guaranteed money in the 2nd round for guys taken on the higher end of that round. For instance, in the 2021 draft class more than 10 players received a 2 year or more guaranteed contract for salary at or above the league minimum (which is just over 1 million per year).

While I agree that he is better off getting drafted in the 1st round with slot money and a two year guarantee with 2 years of options, the reality is that the front end of the 2nd round is worth about 1.25 to 1.75 million per year for 2 years guaranteed at this point. Just a thought as I don't think he needs to hear a 1st round promise to stay in the draft.

Having said that, I believe the smarter longer-term economic play is to wait a year, go higher and increase his slot money which provides more economic benefit over the first four years of his career. It would also be much nicer if NIL could pony up a nice deal in order to reduce the short-term salary hit and the possible risks he will take on by staying another year.

The other advantage of getting drafted in the second round, is you if you become a good player, you hit some type of limited Free Agency after two years in the league -- first rounders have locked in contracts for 4 years. And if you suck as a first rounder, the team options for year 3 and year 4 are not picked up.

So you are not that worse off being an early second rounder with a guarantee than a 20-30 first round pick.

The only thing I don't fully agree with, is the assumption that you stick around as a soph, get better and then that will boost your draft status.. Just getting better as a sophomore or junior is not automatically going to boost your draft status. Growth is expected by the scouts. Sometimes its better for a sophomore's draft status, to really struggle as a freshman, and then have a massive leap as a soph -- it shows you have more upside left Mintz already established a fairly decent baseline.

 

[AngryOtto]

The other advantage of getting drafted in the second round, is you if you become a good player, you hit some type of limited Free Agency after two years in the league -- first rounders have locked in contracts for 4 years. And if you suck as a first rounder, the team options for year 3 and year 4 are not picked up.

So you are not that worse off being an early second rounder with a guarantee than a 20-30 first round pick.

The only thing I don't fully agree with, is the assumption that you stick around as a soph, get better and then that will boost your draft status.. Just getting better as a sophomore or junior is not automatically going to boost your draft status. Growth is expected by the scouts. Sometimes its better for a sophomore's draft status, to really struggle as a freshman, and then have a massive leap as a soph -- it shows you have more upside left Mintz already established a fairly decent baseline.

He has areas his game that needs to improve. Staying in college with nil allows him money and to show case his talent. Getting drafted in the second round means riding a bus all over to g league games with little to no crowd. Also playing with guys that may only want to highlight their own skills to get in the league.

 

[CardiacCuse]

The other advantage of getting drafted in the second round, is you if you become a good player, you hit some type of limited Free Agency after two years in the league -- first rounders have locked in contracts for 4 years. And if you suck as a first rounder, the team options for year 3 and year 4 are not picked up.

So you are not that worse off being an early second rounder with a guarantee than a 20-30 first round pick.

The only thing I don't fully agree with, is the assumption that you stick around as a soph, get better and then that will boost your draft status.. Just getting better as a sophomore or junior is not automatically going to boost your draft status. Growth is expected by the scouts. Sometimes its better for a sophomore's draft status, to really struggle as a freshman, and then have a massive leap as a soph -- it shows you have more upside left Mintz already established a fairly decent baseline.

well he's learning a new position - his individual stats might not take a huge leap - but that's not what PG play is all about ...and that's where he will (or wont) play in the NBA, most likely.

Mintz's baseline is pretty good...but if you really watched closely and didnt just box score or watch highlights...there is a ton of room for improvement left in his game. W-L record should matter for point guard...its like the quarterback of basketball...put up stats AND win! I guarantee if he does that his draft stock will soar.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

I would just like to take this time to point out that every guy in D1 thinks he’s going to play in the league. Just peel the 12th man off the bench and ask him

 

[Hopkins16]

I wish him well and hope he doesn't end up like Malachi, McCullough and Lydon, all first rounders who were not NBA ready and was out of the League for good when the rookie contract ended (possibly Ennis too). Seems like players with potential rush to get in the League and do not have enough respect for how difficult it is to stay in the NBA and have a long career. The League is quick to draft a guy with potential but also quick to kick you to the curb if that potential doesn't materialize quickly. Judah just started playing point guard his freshman year of college - he is no way ready to play the point in the NBA.

 

[Cuse181]

I wish him well and hope he doesn't end up like Malachi, McCullough and Lydon, all first rounders who were not NBA ready and was out of the League for good when the rookie contract ended (possibly Ennis too). Seems like players with potential rush to get in the League and do not have enough respect for how difficult it is to stay in the NBA and have a long career. The League is quick to draft a guy with potential but also quick to kick you to the curb if that potential doesn't materialize quickly. Judah just started playing point guard his freshman year of college - he is no way ready to play the point in the NBA.

I know, it’s so sad they became millionaires overnight

 

[Hopkins16]

I know, it’s so sad they became millionaires overnight

You're missing the point - while I'm sure those guys are all glad to have made a few million off their rookie contracts, they all desired to have a long NBA career and make a lot more than a one time rookie contract. Obviously a couple guaranteed million that comes with a rookie deal is nothing to sneeze at but Judah isn't even in their camp. He is seen as a 2nd rounder and unless he somehow gets bumped up to the first round, he won't even see the guaranteed millions that the guys I mentioned received.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I wish him well and hope he doesn't end up like Malachi, McCullough and Lydon, all first rounders who were not NBA ready and was out of the League for good when the rookie contract ended (possibly Ennis too). Seems like players with potential rush to get in the League and do not have enough respect for how difficult it is to stay in the NBA and have a long career. The League is quick to draft a guy with potential but also quick to kick you to the curb if that potential doesn't materialize quickly. Judah just started playing point guard his freshman year of college - he is no way ready to play the point in the NBA.

Why are you posting this when there’s a very real chance he does come back? Even so it’s not your place to be concerned about this.

 

[Newhouser]

If I'm Judah my only consideration in coming back is NIL. I am not part of the crowd that thinks his game will improve more by playing in college rather than trying the G-League or some other professional stint. Better coaching, better training, playing against much more talented people. No built in hype machine but NBA guys know who has game.

 

[Cuse181]

You're missing the point - while I'm sure those guys are all glad to have made a few million off their rookie contracts, they all desired to have a long NBA career and make a lot more than a one time rookie contract. Obviously a couple guaranteed million that comes with a rookie deal is nothing to sneeze at but Judah isn't even in their camp. He is seen as a 2nd rounder and unless he somehow gets bumped up to the first round, he won't even see the guaranteed millions that the guys I mentioned received.

I think you are missing the point. What would one more year of college training given them that NBA coaching wouldn't have? Its not like we are talking about guys who went undrafted and flew around the G League to fester forever, these were guys who got top flight coaching for a year, if not more after getting drafted in the first round. They didnt pan out because they were not NBA talents. Thats not bad, most players aren't, but at least they made their millions.

 

[OrangeDW]

I think you are missing the point. What would one more year of college training given them that NBA coaching wouldn't have? Its not like we are talking about guys who went undrafted and flew around the G League to fester forever, these were guys who got top flight coaching for a year, if not more after getting drafted in the first round. They didnt pan out because they were not NBA talents. Thats not bad, most players aren't, but at least they made their millions.

It wouldn’t but….

It could put him in better position going into the draft.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Sticking in the NBA is incredibly hard. Staying another year in college doesn't magically transform a marginal talent into an all-star with a ten-year career.

 

[Cusefan0307]

If I'm Judah my only consideration in coming back is NIL. I am not part of the crowd that thinks his game will improve more by playing in college rather than trying the G-League or some other professional stint. Better coaching, better training, playing against much more talented people. No built in hype machine but NBA guys know who has game.

Ehhhh. I get what you're saying, but it's more than that. The coaching is better and it's a professional job, but first round picks get a lot more chances to succeed then someone in the 2nd round or undrafted.

 

[Newhouser]

Ehhhh. I get what you're saying, but it's more than that. The coaching is better and it's a professional job, but first round picks get a lot more chances to succeed then someone in the 2nd round or undrafted.

I agree but there is no guarantee he will be a 1st round pick if he comes back. He is a good player who may have looked better than he is playing for our second worst team in the last 50 years. I posted earlier to my eye it looked like nearly every P5 and some non-P5 tourney teams had a PG who was his equal or better.

Competition is fierce and more often than not the timing and luck of these decisions is a major factor.

 

[Cuse181]

It wouldn’t but….

It could put him in better position going into the draft.

Perhaps, they also could've gotten injured and tanked, they could've struggled, the team could've been bad, there are numerous what ifs that were all eliminated by them taking the safest route

 

[Cusefan0307]

I agree but there is no guarantee he will be a 1st round pick if he comes back. He is a good player who may have looked better than he is playing for our second worst team in the last 50 years. I posted earlier to my eye it looked like nearly every P5 and some non-P5 tourney teams had a PG who was his equal or better.

Competition is fierce and more often than not the timing and luck of these decisions is a major factor.

I think he's a shoe in first round pick next year personally if he stays healthy. A lot of these guys you are speaking to are older or extremely undersized for the NBA. There's a few highly seeded teams that don't get upset if he's on their roster. Virginia, Purdue, and Arizona specifically come to mind.

 

[Sbucketball]

I agree but there is no guarantee he will be a 1st round pick if he comes back. He is a good player who may have looked better than he is playing for our second worst team in the last 50 years. I posted earlier to my eye it looked like nearly every P5 and some non-P5 tourney teams had a PG who was his equal or better.

Competition is fierce and more often than not the timing and luck of these decisions is a major factor.

He'll be one of the best guards if he comes back. He'll shoot the 3 much better, will make better decisions, and be more consistent. I don't see a world where he's not a top guard in college basketball next year.

 

[OrangeDW]

Perhaps, they also could've gotten injured and tanked, they could've struggled, the team could've been bad, there are numerous what ifs that were all eliminated by them taking the safest route

Trying to scrap onto a roster as a second round pick is risky too.

 

[HOFCeluck]

These arguments have been done to death around here for years and I'm not sure any new point is going to be made. I refuse to participate unless Briancuse comes back.

 

[Cuse181]

Trying to scrap onto a roster as a second round pick is risky too.

Except they were first rounders

 

[OrangeDW]

Except they were first rounders

…..who?

 

[Cuse181]

…..who?

Lydon, McCullough and Richardson

 

[Hopkins16]

Why are you posting this when there’s a very real chance he does come back? Even so it’s not your place to be concerned about this.

Strange response when this is a chat board where different opinions, some much stronger than mine are posted and discussed. You can disagree but to ask why I'm posting this or it's not my place to be concerned seems very odd.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Strange response when this is a chat board where different opinions, some much stronger than mine are posted and discussed. You can disagree but to ask why I'm posting this or it's not my place to be concerned seems very odd.

I don't care what your opinion is.

I do think it's crap that fans go after guys for leaving early or don't think they are good enough to leave early. So yes I ask why fan's are concerned what a player does because I don't really think it's about the player. It's about how their favorite college basketball team is affected year after year.

 

[OrangeDW]

Lydon, McCullough and Richardson

I thought we were talking about likely second rounders.

If a guy is a likely first rounder, that’s probably a much easier decision.

Likely second rounder - things get murkier IMO. There’s risks both ways.