Judah Mintz to test NBA Draft waters

[Orangezoo]

The air balls stick out for me.
It’s not 1/2 but 0/2 and hitting nothing in a close game.

Again, I like him. But team results and some late game giving up doesn’t bode well.

What a weird rabbit hole you are taking this thread down.

 

[kirbivore]

He’s not going to like what he hears

 

[CuseFaninVT]

Scouts tell 50-60 guys every year that they will be first round picks. That goes most of the way through the 2nd round. Unless you have a team that tells you that you are their pick at the 10th or 15th spot in the draft, it's a coin toss. There is no single "big board"; every team has their own.

I have a hard time believing scouts do. Agents, sure.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I have a hard time believing scouts do. Agents, sure.

There are 30 teams. Each has several people involved in draft decisions.

There are 30 separate "big boards" and multiple people with input into each of them.

No one's big boards match everyone else's - just like March Brackets.

If each team's board has just two players that aren't the same as the other teams' projected first round picks, that's 60 kids right there who could be "potential" first rounders, depending on the team.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

There are 30 teams. Each has several people involved in draft decisions.

There are 30 separate "big boards" and multiple people with input into each of them.

No one's big boards match everyone else's - just like March Brackets.

If each team's board has two players that aren't the same as the other teams' projected first round picks, that's 60 kids right there who could be "potential" first rounders.

But they won’t have other kids. They’re will be way more overlap than you’re accounting for

 

[IthacaMatt]

But they won’t have other kids. They’re will be way more overlap than you’re accounting for

I think most of the overlap is in the top 10-15 players. Most people agree on them, although I just took a quick look to compare NBA Draft Net, ESPN, Sports Illustrated and CBS's mock drafts.

For instance, Kyle Filipowski of Duke is #15 on ESPN and doesn't make SI's first round. NBA Draft Net has a couple players for Duke in the 20s that don't appear on a couple of the other lists.

NBA Draft Net has a couple mid-major guys from Pepperdine and UCF in their top 20, while EPSN doesn't have any; all their top 25 or so are from big programs (P5 + Big East, Gonzaga).

SI has a couple flyers the others don't - a New Zealand kid and another from Xavier that isn't in the other first round lists. Sensabaugh from Ohio State is anywhere from 11th in the CBS mock draft, to borderline end of the first round in a couple others.

On CBS, Jamie Jacquez of NC State slips into the end of the first round, along with Julian Phillips of Tennessee and Reece Beekman of UVA, who don't appear in the first rounds of most of the other 3 mock drafts.

So, while I appreciate your point that there will be overlap, having only 2 out of 30 picks differ from your peers gets you to a lot of overpromising to guys who won't actually make the first round. Those differences are going to be in the second half of the first round.

Of course agents do it more than scouts or GMs, but just like no brackets are the same, no draft boards are the same.

 

[hoopsupstate]

I think most of the overlap is in the top 10-15 players. Most people agree on them, although I just took a quick look to compare NBA Draft Net, ESPN, Sports Illustrated and CBS's mock drafts.

For instance, Kyle Filipowski of Duke is #15 on ESPN and doesn't make SI's first round. NBA Draft Net has a couple players for Duke in the 20s that don't appear on a couple of the other lists.

NBA Draft Net has a couple mid-major guys from Pepperdine and UCF in their top 20, while EPSN doesn't have any; all their top 25 or so are from big programs (P5 + Big East, Gonzaga).

SI has a couple flyers the others don't - a New Zealand kid and another from Xavier that isn't in the other first round lists. Sensabaugh from Ohio State is anywhere from 11th in the CBS mock draft, to borderline end of the first round in a couple others.

On CBS, Jamie Jacquez of NC State slips into the end of the first round, along with Julian Phillips of Tennessee and Reece Beekman of UVA, who don't appear in the first rounds of most of the other 3 mock drafts.

So, while I appreciate your point that there will be overlap, having only 2 out of 30 picks differ from your peers gets you to a lot of overpromising to guys who won't actually make the first round. Those differences are going to be in the second half of the first round.

Of course agents do it more than scouts or GMs, but just like no brackets are the same, no draft boards are the same.

It really doesn’t matter. Usually only 7-8 first rounders ever amount to much. They make some money the first 2-3 years and then are pretty much done. Very few ever make it big.

 

[CLMintz]

well he's learning a new position - his individual stats might not take a huge leap - but that's not what PG play is all about ...and that's where he will (or wont) play in the NBA, most likely.

Mintz's baseline is pretty good...but if you really watched closely and didnt just box score or watch highlights...there is a ton of room for improvement left in his game. W-L record should matter for point guard...its like the quarterback of basketball...put up stats AND win! I guarantee if he does that his draft stock will soar.

There’s a ton of room for development in the first round guys too. Brandon Miller, Keyonte George had awful NCAA games. Everybody needs to work on something.

 

[CLMintz]

Sticking in the NBA is incredibly hard. Staying another year in college doesn't magically transform a marginal talent into an all-star with a ten-year career.

Judah is not a marginal talent. Are you nuts?!

 

[orangenauburn]

He's going to be told he's somewhere between late first to mid to late second.

A big range.

If he gets the invite, I think he takes the leap that he can tighten that range up to late first early second.

That's a tough choice to make with the promise's he will be given

 

[atlanticuse]

What a weird rabbit hole you are taking this thread down.

Am I?
Performance under pressure has no bearing on his draft grades? Late free throws get washed out in overall stats, but if you watch the tape, it’s relevant. So does ripping a jersey before time runs out. And getting ejected.

How did he do in the NCAA or NIT games?
(Please don’t say “well neither did Wembanyama”)

 

[atlanticuse]

Judah is not a marginal talent. Are you nuts?!

I think there is a nuance here.

Is Judah better than [others] projected in the first round?
“Can he have a long career?” is different.

 

[Orangezoo]

Am I?
Performance under pressure has no bearing on his draft grades? Late free throws get washed out in overall stats, but if you watch the tape, it’s relevant. So does ripping a jersey before time runs out. And getting ejected.

How did he do in the NCAA or NIT games?
(Please don’t say “well neither did Wembanyama”)

All you are doing is setting your own standards and cherry picking a couple things and applying as though it adds up to something. It sounds like you have a problem with Judah which is just nutty. Nothing in your opinion carries water beyond your own PC.

 

[Orangezoo]

I think there is a nuance here.

Is Judah better than [others] projected in the first round?
“Can he have a long career?” is different.

Weird rabbit hole, island for one...

 

[atlanticuse]

All you are doing is setting your own standards and cherry picking a couple things and applying as though it adds up to something. It sounds like you have a problem with Judah which is just nutty. Nothing in your opinion carries water beyond your own PC.

we'll see how the draft plays out, and his career.

 

[kcsu]

He is young enough that another year in college isnt going to hurt him. There is no chance he is drafted in the first round unless a lot of kids decide to return to college. The draft is super deep this year. His best bet is to get good advice come back score NIL bucks and get better.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Judah is not a marginal talent. Are you nuts?!

Yes, relative to the NBA, he is a marginal prospect. Otherwise he would already be in the top ten. The number of players who “stick” in the NBA is a really small list relative to the number of players who get invited to the combine, play in the G league, NDFAs, drafted in the 2nd round, etc.

I’m not sure why people equate success as only playing a long career in the NBA.

 

[cusefan88]

If he gets a first-round promise he should stay in the draft. That simple.

 

[Orangezoo]

Yes, relative to the NBA, he is a marginal prospect. Otherwise he would already be in the top ten. The number of players who “stick” in the NBA is a really small list relative to the number of players who get invited to the combine, play in the G league, NDFAs, drafted in the 2nd round, etc.

I’m not sure why people equate success as only playing a long career in the NBA.

I would say prospect itself is where it ends. Marginal prospect vs top prospect is hard to really say as once he refines specific portions of his game he becomes an obvious earlier pick. Lots of guys get labeled a top prospect early and bust.

 

[atlanticuse]

It's impossible to compare him to Judah, but I'm surprised Jerami Grant has been one of the best Syracuse talents in the NBA. And his brother Jerian was drafted a lot higher than him.

I thought that Jerian was pretty good at ND. Back to facts: Jerian had about two more assists, but otherwise very similar raw stats to Judah, albeit against significantly better competition (SOS 7.02 vs. 4.16); looking at their final year, since Judah was only here one year:

Judah Mintz College Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Judah Mintz - Stats, Game Logs, Splits, and much more

www.sports-reference.com

versus

Jerian Grant College Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Jerian Grant - Stats, Game Logs, Splits, and much more

www.sports-reference.com

He's a bigger (30lb heavier, only an inch taller) dude, so that can wear on his body - and probably not as quick - but I wonder how a real scout (not me, as an internet scout), would compare the two.

 

[OrangeDW]

It's impossible to compare him to Judah, but I'm surprised Jerami Grant has been one of the best Syracuse talents in the NBA. And his brother Jerian was drafted a lot higher than him.

I thought that Jerian was pretty good at ND. Back to facts: Jerian had about two more assists, but otherwise very similar raw stats to Judah, albeit against significantly better competition (SOS 7.02 vs. 4.16); looking at their final year, since Judah was only here one year:

Judah Mintz College Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Judah Mintz - Stats, Game Logs, Splits, and much more

www.sports-reference.com

versus

Jerian Grant College Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Jerian Grant - Stats, Game Logs, Splits, and much more

www.sports-reference.com

He's a bigger (30lb heavier, only an inch taller) dude, so that can wear on his body - and probably not as quick - but I wonder how a real scout (not me, as an internet scout), would compare the two.

….you’re comparing a 5th year 22 year old senior’s stats to a freshman. Judah’s freshman season was better than Jerian’s.

 

[IthacaMatt]

It really doesn’t matter. Usually only 7-8 first rounders ever amount to much. They make some money the first 2-3 years and then are pretty much done. Very few ever make it big.

While that may be true, sometimes a future all star is picked in the teens in a particular draft.
And those guys who get the guaranteed contracts that fall outside of those 7 or 8 guys are going to be much happier that they got guaranteed money than the guys taken in the 2nd round who didn't.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

I wish him well and hope he doesn't end up like Malachi, McCullough and Lydon, all first rounders who were not NBA ready and was out of the League for good when the rookie contract ended (possibly Ennis too). Seems like players with potential rush to get in the League and do not have enough respect for how difficult it is to stay in the NBA and have a long career. The League is quick to draft a guy with potential but also quick to kick you to the curb if that potential doesn't materialize quickly. Judah just started playing point guard his freshman year of college - he is no way ready to play the point in the NBA.

If they had played longer, they might not have ever gotten 1st round money. NBA loves new and shiny prospects over longer term college guys. Also, outside of about 10-12 guys, no one is NBA ready their 1st year or 2

 

[atlanticuse]

….you’re comparing a 5th year 22 year old senior’s stats to a freshman. Judah’s freshman season was better than Jerian’s.

So now NBA executives are grading on a curve based on how old they are?
What does "5th year, 22 year old" have to do with SOS? Judah played a much weaker schedule.

 

[OrangeDW]

So now NBA executives are grading on a curve based on how old they are?
What does "5th year, 22 year old" have to do with SOS? Judah played a much weaker schedule.

See….stuff like this is why I asked you if you follow the NBA.

Have you paid attention to any NBA drafts the last 15+ years and how freshmen/seniors are viewed?