Justin Fuentes out at VT / Brent Pry in

[HRE Otto IV]

Agree with everything but marked improvement. Are we really all that improved from 2019? We can prove it these next 2 games. But 2 losses means more of the same. And you need to revisit years 1 and 2 now.

Year 1: only 2 ACC Ws which was worst in division and 3rd worst in conference. Dungey went down with us 4-5. Maybe we beat NC State if he is healthy. Going 4-8 is a failed season.

Year 2: lost to Middle Tennessee and only 2 ACC Ws. Which was worst record in division and 2nd worst in conference. Again Dungey went down with us 4-5. Maybe the BC game is different but our D was so bad those last 3 games, I doubt he makes a difference. Going 4-8 is a failed season.

Those 2 seasons should now be held against him.

Year 4: only 2 ACC Ws which was 6th in division and tied for 12th overall. The last placed team in the ACC beat us that year.

Year 5: only 1 W overall and in conference. Which was the worst record in the ACC since Duke beat us. Tommy went down with us 1-3. If he were healthy we maybe have a chance in 3 of those losses. Even if we somehow won those 3 games we are 4-7 which is a failed season.

Year 6: only 2 ACC Ws thus far. If we lose our last 2 then only one team will have less losses than us in conference. That will make 5 out of 6 years where we were 12th or worse in the ACC overall and 4 out of 5 years where we were 6th or last in division. Not making a bowl is a failed season.

2018 is great but it can't make up for 5 bad seasons.

Shafer deserved to be fired but with his backup QB he went 4-8 (2-6) the year he was fired. Even the year before he got an ACC W with his starting QB out. And Shafer's last year we lost a lot of close games. So Dino has improved us vs 2015 how exactly?

2015
24-17 in 4th Q vs LSU with Mahoney at QB
6 point OT loss at UVA with a true frosh Dungey
3 point loss on game ending FG to Pitt
34-27 in 4th Q vs Clemson with Mahoney as QB

I fail to see how Dino 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021 is an improvement over Shafer 2015 should we lose these next 2 games. The records are the same and the games aren't any closer. Both 2016 and 2017 were a huge improvement in O, but were equally a huge set back on D. It evened out. We cannot be blinded by 50 passes a game if the end result is no different.

These next 2 games are huge. Any other program would fire Dino if he goes 0-2.

Shafer took over a better program so his job was easier. But Dino has had 6 years to make improvements. Is our roster next season really all that different than the one he had his 1st season here?

Shafer vs Dino in the ACC

ACC Win %
S: .2917
D: .3125 current, .300 if we lose the next 2, .340 if we win the next 2, .320 if we split the next 2
Unless we win the next 2, that isn't much of an improvement.

Against teams we play yearly:

Clemson
S: .000
D: .1667
This is a big feather in Dino's cap

FSU
S: .000
D: .200
FSU has been significantly down the last 5 seasons. I would argue Dino has been poor against FSU.

Louisville
S: .000
D: .200
Louisville has been down the last 4 seasons so again not sure this reflects well on Dino.

Pitt
S: .000
D: .200 current, .1667 with a loss, .3333 with a win
If we lose to Pitt it will be a blemish for Dino

NC State
S: .3333
D: .200 current, .1667 with a loss, .3333 with a win
If we lose to NC State this will be a bad sign for Dino

BC
S: .6666
D: .500
These are about the same

Wake
S: 1.000
D: .3333
This is a big difference

Our peer schools (BC and Wake) Shafer was 5-1 against. Dino is 5-7. Both of those schools have passed us by. It is great that Dino beat Clemson but you can't also be under .500 against BC and Wake. Otherwise you have no progress overall.

 

[Cusefan69]

43-31 and 28-20 in the ACC isn't good enough for VT but Dino's record is good enough for Syracuse. We are serious about football right?

Who at Syracuse has said that is good enough?

 

[TheCusian]

Unfortunately their are many Dino fans because he has a great personality and have the uber big orange glasses on. Wins, losses and stats go out the window for those fans. They will continually make excuses for his bad record and mismanagement of games.

Naw. If you see any pushback in favor of Dino at all as “orange glasses” *you’re* the one lacking in objectivity.

Please show me any post you’ve made that points to a measured and thoughtful approach to this HC. It’s fine to be on the “I think he’s not done enough to retain his job” side of things but you have to acknowledge that it’s not a cut and dry case.

For example, I think he’s done enough this year to get next year BUT if he did go on to lose the next two, I can see Wildhack making the decision to can him. The case is mixed. I see that.

 

[TheCusian]

Shafer took over a better program so his job was easier. But Dino has had 6 years to make improvements. Is our roster next season really all that different than the one he had his 1st season here?

Shafer vs Dino in the ACC

ACC Win %
S: .2917
D: .3125 current, .300 if we lose the next 2, .340 if we win the next 2, .320 if we split the next 2
Unless we win the next 2, that isn't much of an improvement.

Against teams we play yearly:

Clemson
S: .000
D: .1667
This is a big feather in Dino's cap

FSU
S: .000
D: .200
FSU has been significantly down the last 5 seasons. I would argue Dino has been poor against FSU.

Louisville
S: .000
D: .200
Louisville has been down the last 4 seasons so again not sure this reflects well on Dino.

Pitt
S: .000
D: .200 current, .1667 with a loss, .3333 with a win
If we lose to Pitt it will be a blemish for Dino

NC State
S: .3333
D: .200 current, .1667 with a loss, .3333 with a win
If we lose to NC State this will be a bad sign for Dino

BC
S: .6666
D: .500
These are about the same

Wake
S: 1.000
D: .3333
This is a big difference

Our peer schools (BC and Wake) Shafer was 5-1 against. Dino is 5-7. Both of those schools have passed us by. It is great that Dino beat Clemson but you can't also be under .500 against BC and Wake. Otherwise you have no progress overall.

Replying to yourself - hope ya win the fight

 

[OburgOrange]

Damn , if I could just bluff my way into a football factory job. Lose and take my 25 million buy out. Settle in Maui . Maybe learn to surf.

This you Dino?

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Appreciate the thought - but you’d fire him in year 1 or 2?!

You don’t fire him then unless there’s a scandal.

My point is people like to use collective stats to make overarching points (he’s blank and blank in ACC play!) without really thinking through *when* you’d fire him. Or in this case, saying we have low expectations.

Also note me “we’ll see” at the end of my post. We have two games left - if we lose both, I’m not sure which way it will go.

No, year 1 and year 2 it shouldn't even be considered. My point was year 1 and year 2 are part of his overall body of work. Those years are in the negative column IMO.

IMO if at a minimum he has one close game in these final 2, he deserves one more shot to right the ship. I wouldn't want him fired or expect it to happen. If however we get blown out these last 2 games, I think at best it is a gray area. I can lean either way and IMO SU should as well.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Who’s available. No one. A crapshoot.
Bet on some young up and comer? An established unexciting guy?
Whoever it is their agent will negotiate some ridiculous buyout. And if the guy does really well he’ll be poached. And if he does poorly he’ll have the soft landing of a 7 to 8 figure buyout.
Man, we’re a long way from Floyd “Ben” Schwartzwalder.
I want Ara Parseghian to return, be cloned in abundance and coach all college teams.

Every coaching hire is a crap shoot. If you know you have a losing hand why not fold and play craps? At least there is a better chance of coming out on top.

I am not saying we are at that point yet with Dino, but the fear of folding a losing hand is a strange phenomenon.

 

[storange]

This you Dino?

Well Dino has an long successful resume, and coaches a school without a lot of spare change, so not exactly.

 

[hoopsupstate]

If you fire Dino you better have someone ready to take over. Top level coaches are not knocking down the door to come to SU.

 

[TheCusian]

No, year 1 and year 2 it shouldn't even be considered. My point was year 1 and year 2 are part of his overall body of work. Those years are in the negative column IMO.

IMO if at a minimum he has one close game in these final 2, he deserves one more shot to right the ship. I wouldn't want him fired or expect it to happen. If however we get blown out these last 2 games, I think at best it is a gray area. I can lean either way and IMO SU should as well.

Right. I was making the case that our standards/expectations are fine. Maybe Clemson or FSU would have fired him after year two.

The case for firing him after year 6 is more complicated and nuanced - and should be thought of collectively (body of work). And even then I don’t think it’s straightforward, but I see your points.

 

[OrangeinBoston]

a school without a lot of spare change, so not exactly.

Where do you, and others, get this stuff? Nobody on this board, except maybe CTO, has any clue re the financial situation. I might just point out that SU raised >$1 Billion so far during the pandemic.

 

[storange]

Where do you, and others, get this stuff? Nobody on this board, except maybe CTO, has any clue re the financial situation. I might just point out that SU raised >$1 Billion so far during the pandemic.

You are correct, I don't know how much the athletic dept. has. I would be willing to bet Its short of many programs but I don't know. Kind of rude tone, If your going to comment on every post where people speculate on this message board, you have a busy week in front of you.

 

[orangepassion]

Good measuring stick of our program versus a peer within the same conference. He was well over .500 and had significantly more wins and they removed immediately. Syracuse will likely bring back its current coach who could have 5 losing seasons in 6 years.

Losing to us has been the kiss of death to other ACC coaches.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

If you fire Dino you better have someone ready to take over. Top level coaches are not knocking down the door to come to SU.

There are plenty of candidates. UConn got a former NFL coach, yet we have to worry?

I think any of the below would be realistic:

Dan Mullen
Jim McElwain
Chuck Martin
Mike Houston
Joe Moorhead
Doug Marrone

 

[rrlbees]

Heard a coach, or maybe it was a former coach, on the Packer and Durham show a few weeks ago say that “recruiting always beats coaching”.

 

[orangeinohio]

I'm in the wrong business.

Too late for a career change? My pitch would be that I'm good at math and I'll never go for 2 before the 4th quarter. It's good for 2 wins, the talent has to do the rest.

But are you going to hire a special teams coach?

 

[Chip]

But are you going to hire a special teams coach?

Oh, I forgot. We're never punting.

So, no.

 

[storange]

Oh, I forgot. We're never punting.

So, no.

Most likely not kicking off a whole lot either. ( rim shots)

 

[kcsu]

No, year 1 and year 2 it shouldn't even be considered. My point was year 1 and year 2 are part of his overall body of work. Those years are in the negative column IMO.

IMO if at a minimum he has one close game in these final 2, he deserves one more shot to right the ship. I wouldn't want him fired or expect it to happen. If however we get blown out these last 2 games, I think at best it is a gray area. I can lean either way and IMO SU should as well.

How do you keep a coach that arguably lost 3 possibly 4 games because of horrible coaching and gets blown out the last three games?
Easy you decide to not eat the buyout.
Otherwise there isn't any reason for Dino to be retained.

 

[kcsu]

There are plenty of candidates. UConn got a former NFL coach, yet we have to worry?

I think any of the below would be realistic:

Dan Mullen
Jim McElwain
Chuck Martin
Mike Houston
Joe Moorhead
Doug Marrone

And a dozen more coordinators, MAC, or top level FCS head coaches.

 

[Chip]

Agree with everything but marked improvement. Are we really all that improved from 2019? We can prove it these next 2 games.

Thru 9 games, we were clearly better than 2019. Not just record, but we were much more competitive.

10th game in 2019 was the best game we played that year. 10th game in 2021 is the worst game we played this year (hard to imagine anything will be worse).

11th game might look similar in both years. Can't stop the opponent, but we'll be better on offense.

12th game might look similar too. A favored team with a good record loses a close game in the Dome on senior day.

I had said early on to forget improvement over 2020, that wasn't really a goal, but improvement over 2019 was an important goal. It was going so well until that no show Saturday.

 

[Orangello]

I'm in the wrong business.

Too late for a career change? My pitch would be that I'm good at math and I'll never go for 2 before the 4th quarter. It's good for 2 wins, the talent has to do the rest.

I like movies, can quote from Homer Smith's book and have a 3 ring binder with a master plan including Venn diagrams. I also attended multiple Fine Mess tailgates and can connect with the fanbase. That has to be enough for 3 wins a year. Hire me.

 

[Killdozer]

Naw. If you see any pushback in favor of Dino at all as “orange glasses” *you’re* the one lacking in objectivity.

Please show me any post you’ve made that points to a measured and thoughtful approach to this HC. It’s fine to be on the “I think he’s not done enough to retain his job” side of things but you have to acknowledge that it’s not a cut and dry case.

For example, I think he’s done enough this year to get next year BUT if he did go on to lose the next two, I can see Wildhack making the decision to can him. The case is mixed. I see that.

I don't need to post any stats as you already did that. I don't have any anything against DB as I don't know him. What I do know is that he has not won enough to keep his job. I'm a fan of SU not the head coach. I am not lacking "objectivity" I just go by facts. Stats don't lie and any college football fan that is impartial would say that DB is a failure.

 

[bcubs9497]

There are plenty of candidates. UConn got a former NFL coach, yet we have to worry?

I think any of the below would be realistic:

Dan Mullen
Jim McElwain
Chuck Martin
Mike Houston
Joe Moorhead
Doug Marrone

Don't want McElwain. At all.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Thru 9 games, we were clearly better than 2019. Not just record, but we were much more competitive.

10th game in 2019 was the best game we played that year. 10th game in 2021 is the worst game we played this year (hard to imagine anything will be worse).

11th game might look similar in both years. Can't stop the opponent, but we'll be better on offense.

12th game might look similar too. A favored team with a good record loses a close game in the Dome on senior day.

I had said early on to forget improvement over 2020, that wasn't really a goal, but improvement over 2019 was an important goal. It was going so well until that no show Saturday.

We need to see how the next two games play out. We likely will be improved but not by a whole lot.

2019 we gave up 269 points in conference. Thus far we have only given up 173. So as long as we don't give up 48 ppg these next 2, our D is better. 2019 we were 11th in conference in ppg. This year likely ends up in the 7th-9th range. Our D seems better which is expected given the change in DC.

2019 we scored 202 points in conference which was 11th. This year we have 146 which will likely end up in the 9th-11th range. We need to average 28 ppg to tie 2019. Our O hasn't been able to score as much, although 2019 was skewed by that one blowout W. We changed OCs and haven't scored more.

2019 our ppg difference was negative 8.375 ppg or minus 67 points overall. Right now we are minus 27 or 4.5 ppg. If we lose by 20 ppg these next 2 games, we will be the same as 2019. We need to have at least one close game these next 2 to prevent that from happening.

Both 2019 and 2021 (thus far) have seen only 2 ACC Ws. If we end up 2-6 again and lose by 10 ppg these next 2 games (which is relatively close), we will be minus 5.875 ppg for the year. For me a 2.5 ppg isn't a marked improvement. That is assuming we don't get blown out.