Kennesaw State Thoughts

[jordoo]

and final ? for the day, would you consider bball coach at SU too be a white collar or blue collar job?

Lol. Lucky for me General20 backed me up because you've blown holes in my theory. I actually vaugly recall him once saying he was a lawyer when someone asked if he was a writer.

 

[SoBristol]

I am going to strongly differ with you there . . . if this team is going to be as good as I hope, then Joseph & Cooney are going to be playing 32-35 mpg each. There should be no more than 15 mpg available and those will go to Gbinijie.

.....

Roberson will play another 25 mpg at the other forward, leaving around 28-30 forward minutes available. Gbinijie might get around 10 of those, but the bulk are going to BJ. That's going to be the core 7 guys who consistently get 20 or more mpg in the tough games

Lots of guess-work and speculation in your numbers -- which I filed under "maybe". Against Carleton (the only real opposition so far), Gbinije played 30-plus minutes of forward in the zone, though working quite a bit at guard of offense with Cooney & Patterson both in the game. If this team is as good as I hope, it will because Patterson is improving and seeing a lot of time, and Cooney is keeping his legs fresh at under 30 minutes a game. I expect McCullough and Gbinije to get the big minutes at forward, with Roberson & BJ also in the mix as they each get better. The rotation is a work in progress.

 

[capeorange]

Thanks for your insight and excellent post General20!

 

[mantonio]

Fantastic analysis !!!!

 

[moqui]

Lots of guess-work and speculation in your numbers

not really . . . we've all seen enough of JB to know that he leans on (a) talent and (b) experience and that by the time the "real" games roll around he almost always devolves to a rotation of 3 guards, 3 forwards and 2 centers . . . if one of those is a GF or an FC then its going to be a 7.5 man roto. I think my scenario is not a certainty, but it is a pretty high percentage likelihood given JB's history

 

[SoBristol]

not really . . . we've all seen enough of JB to know that he leans on (a) talent and (b) experience and that by the time the "real" games roll around he almost always devolves to a rotation of 3 guards, 3 forwards and 2 centers . . . if one of those is a GF or an FC then its going to be a 7.5 man roto. I think my scenario is not a certainty, but it is a pretty high percentage likelihood given JB's history

I know the history -- though the rotation has varied from a tight 7 (last year, for example) to 8.5 when the talent was set up differently.
JB has 8 players this season, plus Chino if needed due to foul trouble. Based on games so far, there is a lot that is unsettled in the rotations. More than many seasons. Against Hampton so far (14 minutes in), all 8 have played, & the coaches are experimenting with combinations. If they haven't figured it out, I doubt you or other posters can script out the minutes for each player.

 

[moqui]

I know the history -- though the rotation has varied from a tight 7 (last year, for example) to 8.5 when the talent was set up differently.
JB has 8 players this season, plus Chino if needed due to foul trouble. Based on games so far, there is a lot that is unsettled in the rotations. More than many seasons. Against Hampton so far (14 minutes in), all 8 have played, & the coaches are experimenting with combinations. If they haven't figured it out, I doubt you or other posters can script out the minutes for each player.

one of us is going to be surprised

 

[SoBristol]

one of us is going to be surprised

Well, not me so much because I see the situation as fluid, and won't write in minutes per player, or what position Gbinije will play, until I see the games this week. And even then, things may remain unsettled. By way of example, Gbinije played a lot of minutes at forward today -- not the rotation you predicted (but you were right, today, about the guards).

 

[moqui]

Well, not me so much because I see the situation as fluid, and won't write in minutes per player, or what position Gbinije will play, until I see the games this week. And even then, things may remain unsettled. By way of example, Gbinije played a lot of minutes at forward today -- not the rotation you predicted (but you were right, today, about the guards).

actually, if you check it, I said Joseph & Cooney would play 32-35 mpg each and G would get the remainder of the guard minutes, then he'd get the rest of his out of the frontcourt. Today C & J played 34 & 36, G got 6 in the backcourt & the rest in the frontcourt; I'd say I pretty much nailed it.

 

[SoBristol]

actually, if you check it, I said Joseph & Cooney would play 32-35 mpg each and G would get the remainder of the guard minutes, then he'd get the rest of his out of the frontcourt. Today C & J played 34 & 36, G got 6 in the backcourt & the rest in the frontcourt; I'd say I pretty much nailed it.

No -- but it is difficult to make such precise guesses when the rotation will change game to game, players are still trying to show their worth, foul troubles come into play, and the defenses will be different. I say no because G played more than Roberson at forward, and there was a rotation of 4 forwards, not 3 as you guessed. And, I am not faulting your guesses, just suggesting you are cutting your slices too fine.

 

[suttree]

Nevertheless I find myself with a few things I want to say.

You, sir, are crushing it. Please continue. With our deepest gratitude.

 

[Forza Azzurri]

The second take away from this game was how many good ball handlers Syracuse has. Gbinije did not play, and Joseph did not play much because of foul trouble, so Syracuse was forced to go without their only two primary ball handlers. It did not bother them at all. Imagine the disaster last year's team would have been without Gbinije and Ennis. This team showed that Patterson has become a great ball handler, Roberson can handle the ball just fine, Johnson can be a guard if he wants to, and McCullough can handle the ball. There is lots of ball handling to go around this year and having only one “true point guard” is not going to be an issue at all.


I purposely saved Patterson and Johnson for last because I want to compare the two. Its unlikely that both guys play when it matters. Either Gbinje is going to play a lot of guard, and Johnson will get minutes at forward, or Gbinije is going to play a lot at forward and Patterson is going to get minutes at guard. Patterson has a built in advantage here, because it suits Syracuse better to sit Roberson, than it does to sit either Joseph or Cooney.


Here are the two guys stat lines:


Patterson: 2-9 field goals, 5 points, 2 rebounds, 4 assists

Johnson: 7-11 field goals, 19 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists


It looks from the stats like Johnson had a much better game, and is definitely the guy you want playing, but I am here to tell you that sometimes stats lie. What the stats don't tell you is that Patterson was phenomenal defensively. Kennesaw hardly scored while he was in the game, and any time the ball came close to him, he disrupted their offense. The stats also don't tell that Patterson showed off his ball handling and passing skills by playing point guard while Joseph was in foul trouble and doing a better job of handling Kennesaw St.'s press than Joseph did. Finally, the stats don't tell you that all of Johnson's points came in situations that he's unlikely to see against a good team. The vast majority of his points came off offensive rebounds, which he will struggle to get in the ACC, and both of his threes came when he was unguarded because Kennesaw St. wanted to have two guys on Christmas.


Johnson probably has the best skill set of anybody on the team. He's tall, he can jump, he can handle the ball, pass, shoot, and drive to the basket and convert. I'd bet my last dollar that he will be a star before he leaves, but I don't think he's going to play a ton this year. Just something interesting things to keep in mind that you can't learn from the box score.


Patterson

What we want from him: To replace either starting guard, and give us about 20 minutes a game off the bench - hit shots, be a secondary ball handler, and play good defense.

What we got from him: Ball handling used to be a question mark for Patterson, but that's changed in a big way. In this game he showed he can be a primary ball handler and not just a secondary ball handler, which is great because you can never have too much ball handling. He was the best defensive player on the floor by a mile. It would have been nice if he made a few more shots, but, his shot looks good to me, so I am sure he will have his good days shooting this year.


Johnson

What we want from him: To be a microwave scorer off the bench when he's called upon.

What we got from him: Lots of points, rebounds, and assists. You've got to love seeing the first flashes of stardom in any player, and that is what we saw in this game.

For Patterson, are you drawing these ball handling conclusions from just the Kennesaw State game or is it a body of work (ie. pre-season practices, the exhibitions & the Kennesaw State game) conclusion?

And, if it is the former, why do you feel that you can project a ball-handling perforamce against a really bad team to how he will handle the ball against high D1 competition?

 

[General20]

For Patterson, are you drawing these ball handling conclusions from just the Kennesaw State game or is it a body of work (ie. pre-season practices, the exhibitions & the Kennesaw State game) conclusion?

And, if it is the former, why do you feel that you can project a ball-handling perforamce against a really bad team to how he will handle the ball against high D1 competition?

Ive seen all four games Syracuse has played this year and I think Patterson's handle looks pretty solid. Unless something goes wrong he's not going to be asked to bring the ball up alone against a press or anything like that. It seems pretty clear to me that he can do what we will ask him to do ball handling wise.

Also (and this is taking the discussion to a MUCH deeper level than it needs to be) but, lower level competition is not necessarily (or even usually) easier to handle the ball against. Most high level D1 teams go for size. How many teams in the ACC recruit small quick guards who are well suited to press? Louisville comes to mind. None of the other big players do. Hampton's point guard was as quick as any guard Syracuse will play all year. He was super short and had other deficiencies, but as far as pressure defense alone, he was as capable as anybody. Its my experience that most guards struggle with ball handling early in the year, when the speed of the game is new, these struggles come against both low and high major teams. With the exception of an outlier team like Louisville who presses often and effectively, have you ever seen a player handle the ball just fine early in the season, and then struggle late in the season when the competition gets better? I can't think of a single example of that.

 

[Forza Azzurri]

Ive seen all four games Syracuse has played this year and I think Patterson's handle looks pretty solid. Unless something goes wrong he's not going to be asked to bring the ball up alone against a press or anything like that. It seems pretty clear to me that he can do what we will ask him to do ball handling wise.

Also (and this is taking the discussion to a MUCH deeper level than it needs to be) but, lower level competition is not necessarily (or even usually) easier to handle the ball against. Most high level D1 teams go for size. How many teams in the ACC recruit small quick guards who are well suited to press? Louisville comes to mind. None of the other big players do. Hampton's point guard was as quick as any guard Syracuse will play all year. He was super short and had other deficiencies, but as far as pressure defense alone, he was as capable as anybody. Its my experience that most guards struggle with ball handling early in the year, when the speed of the game is new, these struggles come against both low and high major teams. With the exception of an outlier team like Louisville who presses often and effectively, have you ever seen a player handle the ball just fine early in the season, and then struggle late in the season when the competition gets better? I can't think of a single example of that.

Thanks for response.

Great point on ACC guards vs mid-major guards. Had not thought of that.