KenPom Rankings

[Surfan06001]

30 in defensive efficiency

108 offense

 

[Sbucketball]

Syracuse after beating Tenn: 71 —> 63

 

[Orangezoo]

Syracuse after beating Tenn: 71 —> 63

A few blowouts the next several games and we will be in the 40s or better

 

[blust2i3d4]

Syracuse after beating Tenn: 71 —> 63

This really sucks. I thought we could be 50 or at least 50ish.

 

[DomeHolmes]

I think JN has been pretty consistent: its about margin. If you blow people out you move up, if you get blown out or play close games against inferior competition you get dropped. No one to blame but themselves for this. They shouldn't have quit on the Iowa state game and shouldn't have missed 14 Fts versus Monmouth.

That was my point about asking these questions. None of the teams mentioned have impressive margins at all.

 

[DomeHolmes]

Look at our resume versus St. John’s. Our win vs Tennessee (q1)is better than their win against Baylor (q2). We both lost to 3 good top 25 teams. How are they 22 and we are now 63?

I thought that they were not releasing the rankings until December to weed out all of the garbage from last year that is irrelevant.

 

[phsyra]

we need to run the table to have a chance...its not fair

 

[GoSU96]

we need to run the table to have a chance...its not fair

Run the table?

 

[Knicks411]

Look at our resume versus St. John’s. Our win vs Tennessee (q1)is better than their win against Baylor (q2). We both lost to 3 good top 25 teams. How are they 22 and we are now 63?

I thought that they were not releasing the rankings until December to weed out all of the garbage from last year that is irrelevant.

If you're talking about the KP ranking, Baylor is 25 at Ken Pom, Tennessee is 16. St Johns beat them by 15 on a neutral court, we beat Tenn by 2 at home. Baylor is a Q1 win, and it's pretty obviously a more impressive win.

I believe there's also still a preseason component, which maybe there shouldn't be, but I don't see how you could argue home Tenn is a better win than neutral Baylor at this moment. (especially considering the margin of the games)

 

[Cusefan0307]

If you're talking about the KP ranking, Baylor is 25 at Ken Pom, Tennessee is 16. St Johns beat them by 15 on a neutral court, we beat Tenn by 2 at home. Baylor is a Q1 win, and it's pretty obviously a more impressive win.

I believe there's also still a preseason component, which maybe there shouldn't be, but I don't see how you could argue home Tenn is a better win than neutral Baylor at this moment. (especially considering the margin of the games)

Correct. The preseason component will go away in the next 5 games.

 

[RedtheGOB]

we need UNC to win but also they do not look that unbeatable.

 

[jncuse]

Looking at the net. A couple questions for you.

Belmont: their NET is 33. all of their wins are either quad three or quad four. The toughest game they will play non conference will be Richmond. They are not even beating the type of teams that the mountain West usually beats to inflate their NET. Any thoughts on why they is so high?

Yale: NET of 25. has only beaten two quad three/four teams by 20 or more. Has five wins of less than 11 points, and lost to the only team with a pulse they have played. (Rhode Island). Any thoughts. 25 seems crazy

St John’s. NET 22: like us, they lost all of their quad 1 games. (0-3). The only difference in their resume is that they beat Baylor in a quad two game. But that (plus the Iowa st margin) makes them 69 spots ahead of us? By that logic, we should be ahead of them if we beat Quad 1 Tennessee tonight. With such similar resumes how could they be so far ahead?

USC: Net 23. Looking at their schedule, they played a few Good teams. Arizona State, Seton Hall, Boise, and have close wins, but nobody near the top 25, and that’s all there is to their non conference schedule.

I feel like if we scheduled like USC and won them all, there would be more talk like “North Carolina coming to Syracuse” and beating “quad one Syracuse” gives the conference more credibility, and thus gives us more credibility. Perception of our ranking would outweigh the “Syracuse hasn’t really played anybody” that might keep us out of the tournament. If USC goes 10-10 in the BIG and makes the tournament, It will show that we way over scheduled by playing in Vegas. Playing in Hawaii would have been better.

I'll try my best to answer these tomorrow. I try to usually answer these within the realm of KP (as a related measure to NET) as I can manipulate the ADJEM to come up with numbers. The NET has a few moving parts that are not quite the same as KP so its not perfect way to analyze but it usually works.

 

[jncuse]

Looking at the net. A couple questions for you.

Belmont: their NET is 33. all of their wins are either quad three or quad four. The toughest game they will play non conference will be Richmond. They are not even beating the type of teams that the mountain West usually beats to inflate their NET. Any thoughts on why they is so high?

Yale: NET of 25. has only beaten two quad three/four teams by 20 or more. Has five wins of less than 11 points, and lost to the only team with a pulse they have played. (Rhode Island). Any thoughts. 25 seems crazy

St John’s. NET 22: like us, they lost all of their quad 1 games. (0-3). The only difference in their resume is that they beat Baylor in a quad two game. But that (plus the Iowa st margin) makes them 69 spots ahead of us? By that logic, we should be ahead of them if we beat Quad 1 Tennessee tonight. With such similar resumes how could they be so far ahead?

USC: Net 23. Looking at their schedule, they played a few Good teams. Arizona State, Seton Hall, Boise, and have close wins, but nobody near the top 25, and that’s all there is to their non conference schedule.

I feel like if we scheduled like USC and won them all, there would be more talk like “North Carolina coming to Syracuse” and beating “quad one Syracuse” gives the conference more credibility, and thus gives us more credibility. Perception of our ranking would outweigh the “Syracuse hasn’t really played anybody” that might keep us out of the tournament. If USC goes 10-10 in the BIG and makes the tournament, It will show that we way over scheduled by playing in Vegas. Playing in Hawaii would have been better.

He's an important point to consider.

Belmont has played - 2 road games, 2 neutral, 3 home
Yale has played - 3 road games, 3 neutral, 2 home.

Its only 2 or 3 games but its over a sample of 8.

NET kind of double counts the impact of road games, and alternatively would diminish home games. Yale beating NET #146 on the road by 37 points, is a big positive outlier that will skew their NET.

I'll explain it further tomorrow or in a few days.

 

[CuseFan]

Cuse only moved up to 63 after beating Tenn? The math is mysterious on this

 

[Ragman2000]

From 91 up to 73 in NET.

 

[syrBossHogg]

30 in defensive efficiency

108 offense

We're so back haha

 

[690West]

30 in defensive efficiency

108 offense

I’m naive on this. I wonder if “defensive efficiency” takes into account that we just played 3 teams that could win the national championship. Or is it just blind metric based? I guess our Iowa st debacle could be an outlier. Paging jncuse

Cuz I’ll tell you right now, there aren’t 29 teams better on defense than us right now. Hell naw

 

[Surfan06001]

I’m naive on this. I wonder if “defensive efficiency” takes into account that we just played 3 teams that could win the national championship. Or is it just blind metric based? I guess our Iowa st debacle could be an outlier. Paging jncuse

Cuz I’ll tell you right now, there aren’t 29 teams better on defense than us right now. Hell naw

It takes that into account…but it also takes into account the teams we played before that (who were terrible) We also gave up sixty points in a half…which doesn’t help either

There’s also still some carryover from 2024 possibly

 

[Orangezoo]

From 91 up to 73 in NET.

Average a win over 20/25 pts+ until Clemson and we will walk into the Clemson game in the 40s or 30s.

We would probably be in the 50s if not for that awful second half vs Iowa St

 

[Knicks411]

I’m naive on this. I wonder if “defensive efficiency” takes into account that we just played 3 teams that could win the national championship. Or is it just blind metric based? I guess our Iowa st debacle could be an outlier. Paging jncuse

Cuz I’ll tell you right now, there aren’t 29 teams better on defense than us right now. Hell naw

It does take that into account, but Houston and Kansas aren’t elite offensively. Houston is 31st in offensive Efficiency and Kansas is 57th. Iowa state is better (14th) and they torched us.

To do a little cherry picking here, Kansas scored 109 per 100 against us; they scored fewer than that against Princeton, Texas a&m Corpus Christi, and Notre Dame.
But my larger point is Kansas and Houston are as good as they are mainly for their defense

 

[EnviroSciGuy]

It takes that into account…but it also takes into account the teams we played before that (who were terrible) We also gave up sixty points in a half…which doesn’t help either

Yep... the ISU game obliterated a lot of the nice-looking stats that SU had accrued.

Vegas was an absolute nightmare scenario with no Freeman, opening with Houston, and ending with an excellent and very angry team on extremely short notice with very little rest. I don't think most of the board recognizes how tough of a situation that was.

The energy that Red gets these kids to expend on D is a testament to him, but it can be a weakness when they are playing three equally or even more rugged teams in less than three days... even with good depth. That's why I was trying to avoid taking too much away from Vegas heading into last night and was still fairly positive.

 

[Orangezoo]

Yep... the ISU game obliterated a lot of the nice-looking stats that SU had accrued.

Vegas was an absolute nightmare scenario with no Freeman, opening with Houston, and ending with an excellent and very angry team on extremely short notice with very little rest. I don't think most of the board recognizes how tough of a situation that was.

The energy that Red gets these kids to expend on D is a testament to him, but it can be a weakness when they are playing three equally or even more rugged teams in less than three days... even with good depth. That's why I was trying to avoid taking too much away from Vegas heading into last night and was still fairly positive.

I didn’t get to watch that Iowa State game and tortured myself with the replay of both Kansas and Iowa State.

I also then watched Houston vs Tennessee.

That game vs Houston may be the most intense non tourney game I’ve seen in a long time and it was in large part that way because of missed FTs and bad calls. The impact of how intense affected both us vs Kansas and Houston vs Tennessee.

Houston then got to go play Notre Dame as a reprieve in game 3 and we got an Iowa State team that had an easier game against a less physical Creighton team before us while we had to deal with a Kansas team a bit desperate for wins after struggling coming in.

This reminded me a lot of playing in AAU tournaments when I played soccer many years back where we ran out of gas in the final round robin game due to the intensity of the first 3 games. It’s not all that far from the second half of the BE championship against the Ville after the 6OT game and then OT again vs WVU.

Not one single team played the same slate as we did not even the team that won it- Michigan who may want to play all their games in Vegas given how they shot it there after only beating Wake by a point earlier in the year.

 

[Surfan06001]

Yep... the ISU game obliterated a lot of the nice-looking stats that SU had accrued.

Vegas was an absolute nightmare scenario with no Freeman, opening with Houston, and ending with an excellent and very angry team on extremely short notice with very little rest. I don't think most of the board recognizes how tough of a situation that was.

The energy that Red gets these kids to expend on D is a testament to him, but it can be a weakness when they are playing three equally or even more rugged teams in less than three days... even with good depth. That's why I was trying to avoid taking too much away from Vegas heading into last night and was still fairly positive.

There’s a lesson I think in being a prisoner of the moment. A couple free throws against Houston changes the narrative entirely. And maybe it shouldn’t be a surprise that they fell apart in the second half against Iowa State in what was their third game against a ranked team in three days.

I will probably not learn that lesson fwiw

 

[SUFaninNJ]

Look at our resume versus St. John’s. Our win vs Tennessee (q1)is better than their win against Baylor (q2). We both lost to 3 good top 25 teams. How are they 22 and we are now 63?

I thought that they were not releasing the rankings until December to weed out all of the garbage from last year that is irrelevant.

Psst, look at a calendar.

 

[Chip]

Run the table?

I'd like to run the table in December and January based on the matchups and locations.

Is that bad?

Then February - yikes.