Let's Play the "What If" Game...

[TBCuse11]

What if we lose to Nova, but win the rest of our OOC games. That puts us at 10-3.

What if we go 10-8 in the ACC (certainly not unrealistic).

What if we are then 20-11. Are we a bubble team? Are we locked in... would we be in trouble if we lost 1st rd ACC game? THis seems to be about where we will end up this year.

I think this would have us comfortably in, somewhere near a 7 seed.

 

[JeremyCuse]

If you know the history of Syracuse and the NCAA tourney committe then this question is an obvious Yes. A 20-11 Syracuse team would definitely be on the bubble even if in reality it shouldnt be. After 08 nothing would surprise me.

 

[jordoo]

It would depend on the wins we had in the ACC IMO. IF none of those wins are against other ACC NCAAT teams then it could be a tight squeeze. But hey Pitt was comfortably in last season with a seriously horrid OOC slate and only beating teams they should have in conference. So its doable and depends on the landscape of some of the good mid-major conferences + the over all strength of the P5's and how many each gets. This year the PAC and SEC look to be scrounging to get 4 teams in.

 

[Knicks411]

If you know the history of Syracuse and the NCAA tourney committe then this question is an obvious Yes. A 20-11 Syracuse team would definitely be on the bubble even if in reality it shouldnt be. After 08 nothing would surprise me.

Probably you mean 07, but let's also not forget there are 3 additional at large spots compared to 2007.

 

[TBCuse11]

we havent had to sweat out Selection Sunday in ages...

 

[alphaorange]

No. You win 20 games in the ACC and you're in. I don't know the answer to this, but when was the last time an ACC team with 20 wins was left out?

 

[Alsacs]

The bubble has become soft. With 68 slots at 20-11 we are getting in as long as we beat St. John's and 2-3 ACC teams that are tournament bound.

 

[jordoo]

The bubble has become soft. With 68 slots at 20-11 we are getting in as long as we beat St. John's and 2-3 ACC teams that are tournament bound.

And with Miami, ND, UNC and Pitt all looking very beatable and having good chances to make the NCAAT that should be doable plus any Lville, VA, Duke win is a major scalp and probably worth any 3 other wins in the committee's eyes. Truthfully if we beat the Johnies and Nova and get at least 11 wins in the ACC we will have a pretty damn good seed IMO.

 

[Knicks411]

No. You win 20 games in the ACC and you're in. I don't know the answer to this, but when was the last time an ACC team with 20 wins was left out?

You need to go all the way back to last season; Clemson went 20-12 before the NIT, didn't make it.
In 2013, UVA went 21-11 and didn't make it. Maryland went 22-11 the same year and didn't make it.
2011, Virginia tech was 21-11, BC 20-12; both missed.
In 2011, Va Tech won 23 games, no luck.

20 wins is not really a thing anymore.

 

[Brooky03]

It depends on how many of those 10 ACC wins are against the top dawgs (if any) and if we're coming in hot or fizzling near the end of the schedule.

Given our stronger than average nonconference schedule, and nonconference games away from home, I'd say the NCAA gets us in. We'd be a bubble team but at the top of the bubble. One win in the ACC Tourney would seal it.

 

[jordoo]

It depends on how many of those 10 ACC wins are against the top dawgs (if any) and if we're coming in hot or fizzling near the end of the schedule.

Given our stronger than average nonconference schedule, and nonconference games away from home, I'd say the NCAA gets us in. We'd be a bubble team but at the top of the bubble. One win in the ACC Tourney would seal it.

Even though we lost @ Michigan it was still away to a top 25 tourney team and we had a good showing. I know it doesn't make sense but the committee gives you credit for that. Add in Cal neutral site loss, Iowa neutral site win, St. John's home win and @ Nova win or loose and the OOC is strong. If we lose to St. John's and Nova its not as impressive but win either of those its pretty good.

 

[Brooky03]

Even though we lost @ Michigan it was still away to a top 25 tourney team and we had a good showing. I know it doesn't make sense but the committee gives you credit for that. Add in Cal neutral site loss, Iowa neutral site win, St. John's home win and @ Nova win or loose and the OOC is strong. If we lose to St. John's and Nova its not as impressive but win either of those its pretty good.

Exactly. We got screwed by the committee once for having a weak nonconference schedule. They can't pull that crap this year.

 

[Full_Rebar]

I'm not a fan of the metric, but SU's RPI should remain strong all year. The Michigan and Nova games will provide a nice boost as true road games.

 

[dasher]

No. You win 20 games in the ACC and you're in. I don't know the answer to this, but when was the last time an ACC team with 20 wins was left out?

the same time that a 20 win big east team doesn't get in. Us.

 

[jordoo]

I'm not a fan of the metric, but SU's RPI should remain strong all year. The Michigan and Nova games will provide a nice boost as true road games.

Which always drove me nutz when it helps the team that losses but win or lose we will benefit from it this year. Next year we will have @ Gtown, @ St Johns, BiG team @ home, Nova @ Home plus a stacked preseason tourney. Leaving the BE and rescheduling old rivals is going to give us very good SOS/RPI & true road tests year in and year out while also providing the fans a much more interesting and competitive OOC slate.

 

[Full_Rebar]

Which always drove me nutz when it helps the team that losses but win or lose we will benefit from it this year. Next year we will have @ Gtown, @ St Johns, BiG team @ home, Nova @ Home plus a stacked preseason tourney. Leaving the BE and rescheduling old rivals is going to give us very good SOS/RPI & true road tests year in and year out while also providing the fans a much more interesting and competitive OOC slate.

I always felt like SU should have played a road game against Colgate or Binghamton, etc each year just to inflate the RPI. A road win against a good team should count more, but just playing a road game shouldn't be a positive.

 

[Alsacs]

Which always drove me nutz when it helps the team that losses but win or lose we will benefit from it this year. Next year we will have @ Gtown, @ St Johns, BiG team @ home, Nova @ Home plus a stacked preseason tourney. Leaving the BE and rescheduling old rivals is going to give us very good SOS/RPI & true road tests year in and year out while also providing the fans a much more interesting and competitive OOC slate.

We likely won't be playing @ SJU next year.
JB has intimated that we will two of Villanova, Georgetown, St. John's every year 1H/1A and will rotate one of them on and off.
We are definitely playing @Gtown, Battle 4 Atlantis, and likely one of Nova/SJU, and an ACC/B1G TBA could be home or away but likely home.

 

[jordoo]

We likely won't be playing @ SJU next year.
JB has intimated that we will two of Villanova, Georgetown, St. John's every year 1H/1A and will rotate one of them on and off.
We are definitely playing @Gtown, Battle 4 Atlantis, and likely one of Nova/SJU, and an ACC/B1G TBA could be home or away but likely home.

Dang! I wish we would play all 3 every year. I think the year you have a home game with the Big you play 2 of Nova/Gtown/St. Johns on the road. The year you go on the road with the BIG you play 1 of those 3 on the road. That would give us 2 good road games and 2 good home games per season for the foreseeable future unless the BE totally bottoms out as a league or something. Its still an over all improvement in OOC scheduling which I think has been needed. I'm willing to take losses at this point OOC to see better competition.

 

[Cusefan0307]

We likely won't be playing @ SJU next year.
JB has intimated that we will two of Villanova, Georgetown, St. John's every year 1H/1A and will rotate one of them on and off.
We are definitely playing @Gtown, Battle 4 Atlantis, and likely one of Nova/SJU, and an ACC/B1G TBA could be home or away but likely home.

UConn is going to be added to the list of Nova, Georgetown, and St. Johns. We will end up playing them as well, the agreement just is not finalized yet.

 

[Alsacs]

Dang! I wish we would play all 3 every year. I think the year you have a home game with the Big you play 2 of Nova/Gtown/St. Johns on the road. The year you go on the road with the BIG you play 1 of those 3 on the road. That would give us 2 good road games and 2 good home games per season for the foreseeable future unless the BE totally bottoms out as a league or something. Its still an over all improvement in OOC scheduling which I think has been needed. I'm willing to take losses at this point OOC to see better competition.

JB is not going to want 4 tough OOC games each year, and honestly if the ACC stays as stacked as it I don't blame him. Fans would love it.
2 of GTown, Nova, SJU, 1H/1A
1 B1G/ACC game(Honestly this challenge may go away if the B1G signs with FOX in 2016)
1 tournament for 4 games with atleast 2 tough games
Colgate
Cornell
2 TBA tomato cans

That is going to be our OOC for the next few years.

 

[jordoo]

UConn is going to be added to the list of Nova, Georgetown, and St. Johns. We will end up playing them as well, the agreement just is not finalized yet.

Yuck! I have no real desire to play them honestly. At least that would get us to the 2 n 2 home and away like I was suggesting.

 

[Eric15]

20 wins is not really a thing anymore.

Agreed - with all the extra preseason tournament games that teams play now, 20 wins just isn't a benchmark that is that significant. In my opinion, the 27-28 win mark represents a great year. That means that if you lost 1 game in the NCAA tourney and potentially 1 game in your conference tourney, you probably only lost another 5 or so games the rest of the entire season, which is very good.

 

[Alsacs]

UConn is going to be added to the list of Nova, Georgetown, and St. Johns. We will end up playing them as well, the agreement just is not finalized yet.

As much as UConn fans want to play Syracuse it is very doubtful we will play in a true home/home.
Those other 3 teams bring a lot of value which UConn does not.
1. Georgetown-historically our biggest rival and access to Maryland/DC kids recruiting
2. St. John's- access to games at MSG aka our Carrier Dome South
3. Villanova-historic rival w/class coach and access to Philadelphia recruits.

UConn unless they will play their games at MSG does none of these things. Thus I doubt we will play them and all these conservations are just out curiosity.

 

[jordoo]

As much as UConn fans want to play Syracuse it is very doubtful we will play in a true home/home.
Those other 3 teams bring a lot of value which UConn does not.
1. Georgetown-historically our biggest rival and access to Maryland/DC kids recruiting
2. St. John's- access to games at MSG aka our Carrier Dome South
3. Villanova-historic rival w/class coach and access to Philadelphia recruits.

UConn unless they will play their games at MSG does none of these things. Thus I doubt we will play them and all these conservations are just out curiosity.

Plus playing UConn at MSG is a neutral site game while St. John's can still be an official away game. So even if they agreed to that it doesn't necessarily help us as much.

 

[Alsacs]

Plus playing UConn at MSG is a neutral site game while St. John's can still be an official away game. So even if they agreed to that it doesn't necessarily help us as much.

If UConn would play their games at MSG I think atleast the game makes some sense. I just see no reason to ever play a game @ UConn again unless they are in the same conference or the B1G-ACC challenge.

Playing at UConn is a no-win proposition. Playing @ Gtown, Nova, SJU make a lot more sense.