Let's Play the "What If" Game...

[swish7]

What if we lose to Nova, but win the rest of our OOC games. That puts us at 10-3.

What if we go 10-8 in the ACC (certainly not unrealistic).

What if we are then 20-11. Are we a bubble team? Are we locked in... would we be in trouble if we lost 1st rd ACC game? THis seems to be about where we will end up this year.

I think this would have us comfortably in, somewhere near a 7 seed.

Most definitely on the bubble.
Most definitely a 9+ loss season.
Most definitely a level of suckage.

 

[Dave85]

What if we lose to Nova, but win the rest of our OOC games. That puts us at 10-3.

What if we go 10-8 in the ACC (certainly not unrealistic).

What if we are then 20-11. Are we a bubble team? Are we locked in... would we be in trouble if we lost 1st rd ACC game? THis seems to be about where we will end up this year.

I think this would have us comfortably in, somewhere near a 7 seed.

I think we will have to have one good unexpected upset along the way.

 

[Full_Rebar]

Va Tech tried that one year by playing some horrible teams on the road. Didn't help

Was that the year Greenberg cried when they got left out, or the other year he cried? I thought they were at 17/18 wins both those years.

 

[Dave85]

I think we will slip up and lose one we shouldn't somewhere but I also feel we put some good games together against the better teams and steal one big scalp.

This is what I was thinking. This may be a bubble team but hopefully it doesn't come up in the conversation. I hope they stay solid all year long and don't have any major slumps. It's going to be close. As I said, this year's team's primary goal will be doing enough to make into the NCAA tournament.

 

[jncuse]

What if we lose to Nova, but win the rest of our OOC games. That puts us at 10-3.

What if we go 10-8 in the ACC (certainly not unrealistic).

What if we are then 20-11. Are we a bubble team? Are we locked in... would we be in trouble if we lost 1st rd ACC game? THis seems to be about where we will end up this year.

I think this would have us comfortably in, somewhere near a 7 seed.

In, but certainly not at the 7 line.

 

[jncuse]

This gives you an idea where a Syracuse team that ends up at 21-10 (entering the ACC tourney would stand). The RPI would come in around 22. We would have about 5 top 50 RPI wins.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

 

[moqui]

This gives you an idea where a Syracuse team that ends up at 21-10 (entering the ACC tourney would stand). The RPI would come in around 22. We would have about 5 top 50 RPI wins.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

nice find, that link is a keeper

 

[jncuse]

People worry too much about the RPI of our current opponents at this time and ignore what is probably more important.

And that is how your conference is doing in. That is a really important thing to watch from an RPI perspective at this time of year. Individual RPI by itself is a fairly meaningless metric. But if the ACC plays well in November and December (or plays poorly) it creates (or takes away) top 50 win opportunities. Top 50 wins is really important when you are on the bubble.

Furthermore, if the strength of your conference, can artificially inflate some of your mediocore teams above that critical 100 line in the RPI, you avoid the "bad loss" on your resume. And we are going to lose to some middle of the road team on the road this year (lets hope it is not teams)

As of right now, numbers wise the Big 12 is on track to be the best conference. 7 of 10 teams are tracking for top 50 RPI's. Since the B12 plays everybody twice, they should have some inflated top 50 wins totals.

 

[jncuse]

It will be different this year. We really were spoiled with 6 straight year's of POD seeds.

 

[jncuse]

What if we lose to Nova, but win the rest of our OOC games. That puts us at 10-3.

What if we go 10-8 in the ACC (certainly not unrealistic).

What if we are then 20-11. Are we a bubble team? Are we locked in... would we be in trouble if we lost 1st rd ACC game? THis seems to be about where we will end up this year.

I think this would have us comfortably in, somewhere near a 7 seed.

I also noticed that RPI forecast now has an RPI Wizard.

Putting in your exact parameters, going 20-11, and losing in round one of the ACC to a team like Pitt, our RPI would come in around 36.

 

[PoppyHart]

People worry too much about the RPI of our current opponents at this time and ignore what is probably more important.

And that is how your conference is doing in. That is a really important thing to watch from an RPI perspective at this time of year. Individual RPI by itself is a fairly meaningless metric. But if the ACC plays well in November and December (or plays poorly) it creates (or takes away) top 50 win opportunities. Top 50 wins is really important when you are on the bubble.

Furthermore, if the strength of your conference, can artificially inflate some of your mediocore teams above that critical 100 line in the RPI, you avoid the "bad loss" on your resume. And we are going to lose to some middle of the road team on the road this year (lets hope it is not teams)

As of right now, numbers wise the Big 12 is on track to be the best conference. 7 of 10 teams are tracking for top 50 RPI's. Since the B12 plays everybody twice, they should have some inflated top 50 wins totals.

But the Big 12 sucks I thought.

 

[Knicks411]

Was that the year Greenberg cried when they got left out, or the other year he cried? I thought they were at 17/18 wins both those years.

In 2011 they were 21-10 after the ACC tournament, and in 2010 they were 23-8.

 

[Full_Rebar]

In 2011 they were 21-10 after the ACC tournament, and in 2010 they were 23-8.

Didn't realize they had that many wins...and when you look at their OOC that year you can see why they got left out. RPI must have been around 50 at selection time.

 

[jordoo]

Didn't realize they had that many wins...and when you look at their OOC that year you can see why they got left out. RPI must have been around 50 at selection time.

Both seasons were about the OOC schedule and I clearly remember the second season the annalists balking at Greenberg's claim that he couldn't understand why they weren't in.

 

[Knicks411]

Just scanning through the 2011 FSu schedule, I think they won 3 games against NCAA teams; Florida State twice (home and neutral) and Duke (home). I also count 5 losses to teams who didn't make it, including BC and UVA at home.

 

[kirbivore]

Was that the year Greenberg cried when they got left out, or the other year he cried? I thought they were at 17/18 wins both those years.

there were so many seasons of Greenburg sobbing on ESPN they all run together.

 

[CaptainJ]

Well played, Omar.

That made me LOL, of course i wasnt sober so it was a little easier. Omar was a bad mother...