Looking ahead to '19-'20

[Sherman20]

Dude. This is about the 83rd time I've seen this (not all you, but I think you have posted this before). I get this. I'm not arguing that your point isn't true. I'm not even arguing that I definitively know Buddy won't be better than Andy.

I'm simply saying senior year Rautins is a very, very high bar. I don't care if he was a team manager as a freshman, for Buddy to get there he needs to get quicker, and improve remarkably on the defensive end while emerging as an elite passer and an elite shooter. Or some other such combination that puts him in that discussion. And, to be clear, I'm rooting for this to happen.

But let's also not forget that vast improvement year-over-year is far from a guarantee. Ask Roberson ... or Lydon ... or Frank Howard ... or Oshae ... or any one of a number of guys. There are players like Gbinije, Rautins, Rak and CJ Fair who take some sort of path that leads to significant improvement. There are others that don't find that success.

Rautins also had the benefit of a 5th year to bulk up/mature/etc due to a torn ACL.

 

[kcsu]

As we have posted hundreds of times we need a center. Sid and Marek are not the answer. Assuming we find someone to play the middle we have a chance to be decent.
The point will be better than the year. Frank gave us nothing. No penetration at all and he regressed on D. The injury crushed his physical ability and more importantly his confidence was shaken.
Tyus isnt a PG. So we will be better. Im thinking that JC gets the start but doesn't keep it losing out to one of the frosh.
At the 2 we also improve. Lots of players for Jim to tinker with. Buddy, JG3, Hughes, we should be fine.
If OB sticks around which to me is the key for next year we will have the makings of a solid forward rotation. Hughes and the Canadian Frosh at the 3. OB Bras JAB and Marek at the 4. Nice talent for Jim to play with.
For me there are 2 keys. First we have to find some help in the middle. Second OB needs to return as he is our best rebounder and i think he is poised to become a star next year.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Dude. This is about the 83rd time I've seen this (not all you, but I think you have posted this before). I get this. I'm not arguing that your point isn't true. I'm not even arguing that I definitively know Buddy won't be better than Andy.

I'm simply saying senior year Rautins is a very, very high bar. I don't care if he was a team manager as a freshman, for Buddy to get there he needs to get quicker, and improve remarkably on the defensive end while emerging as an elite passer and an elite shooter. Or some other such combination that puts him in that discussion. And, to be clear, I'm rooting for this to happen.

But let's also not forget that vast improvement year-over-year is far from a guarantee. Ask Roberson ... or Lydon ... or Frank Howard ... or Oshae ... or any one of a number of guys. There are players like Gbinije, Rautins, Rak and CJ Fair who take some sort of path that leads to significant improvement. There are others that don't find that success.

Well I keep seeing people compare freshman year players to how they remember former players as seniors. Doesn’t make much sense really.

 

[Killdozer]

So we wrapped up this season and I don't think there's much of a need to put a bow on it -- or at least no need to belabor what happened. We ran into a team that was very well prepared for the zone and simply made everything they put up. Whether or not we should have gone man at some point will be debated until probably 10 years after JB retires but it's sort of immaterial in the sense that we didn't and we don't. The broader point is that the guys on the floor didn't get it done.

So with that, what do we want to see when this team takes the floor next November? I have a laundry list here so I don't think we'll see it all, but it's probably an interesting place to start the discussion.

We need to be able to play faster and function better in faster paced games.
I'll get into our offense a bit more later but I was watching the first 10 mins or so of the Iowa/Tennessee game and those teams are playing ball$ out, flying up and down the court and making plays in transition. I know it's not literally true but it felt like I saw more fast break and, probably equally as important, secondary break opportunities in those 10 minutes than we generated in a season.

Doubt we'll ever see the return of the late 80s style under JB and we're probably unlikely to see an offensive juggernaut like the 09-10 team, but teams are increasingly running five guys who can play offense out there so at times you're going to have to score. We were actually pretty significantly improved in this area this season over last (we lost I think five games when holding teams under 60 last year but we didn't lose a single game that way this season (perhaps b/c we weren't good enough defensively to slow teams down that much, but we did hold 13 teams under 60 and we were 13-0).

But the only shootout we won -- somehow -- was Duke. We were 2-11 in games where teams scored 70. The reality is teams are built to score and the rules and styles dictate that you're going to have a long day sometimes if the only way you win is holding teams 10-15 or 20 points below their averages.

One of the simplest fixes is getting the players we have that can makes some plays with their athleticism into the frontcourt faster. I see three key factors here: 1 -- Can't have our bigs wrestling off imaginary defenders like Chukwu did so often; 2 -- Can't have our guards getting an outlet, steal or long rebound and covering it up like their personal pot of gold and 3 -- and this one may be the most important -- We need to get people filling lanes and getting down the court instead of having four guys asking the one guy with the ball to pass it to them.

I honestly believe this is really basketball 101. Get the ball and go. Don't have to shoot in 10 seconds or less but early shotclock offense and the occasionally fast break or secondary break has to become a bigger part of our arsenal. It was better this season than last but it needs to be a good step or two better next season.

We need to run a better offense. Period.
Whatever we call our offense and however you'd explain it to someone, the bottom line is that it basically sucks. We don't have guys who break other teams down and we're unlikely to have that next year either. In fact, Frank and Tyus were probably our two 'best' players at this and they're gone. But we've had good offensive teams without that -- 09-10 featured Scoop, who was OK at best, Andy and Triche (no ability to blow by defenders), Johnson and Joseph (excellent in the open court and slashing in transition but not dribble-drive guys) and Arinze and RJ (excellent post offense but obviously not putting the ball on the floor).

Maybe Carey or Goodine bring a bit more of that element next season but we're likely to be in a spot where we need to create offense in the halfcourt without a ton of dribble drives. Maybe it's a matter of running Buddy and JGIII off more screens, running Marek/Oshae high-low action, a more effective version of the high ball screen if Carey/Goodine/Marek are a bit more explosive than the Chukwu/Frank/Tyus efforts this year. Maybe it's getting a bit more creative with Hughes so he's not just shooting threes from the wing.

I don't know exactly what the answer is, but watching us run that lame ball screen over and over again as Baylor was pulling away and we were just launching contested long jumpers was brutal. We have to be better and as much as I love JB, that falls at his feet.

We need to find an answer at the 5
I'm not entirely against Marek playing more and I love the idea of a healthy Sidibe ... but we saw Marek get abused in certain matchups defensively even late in the year and (sadly) I really wonder if we ever see the Sidibe we saw early last season. Hope I'm wrong, but I just don't know.

I don't know if we take a run at a kid like Smits or someone or if the staff just feels like after another offseason Marek can be pretty competent in there defensively, but man something has to change in there. We don't get a ton of rebounding from Hughes (more on that later) and Marek gets pushed around.

Some individual player thoughts
Lastly, we need to improve individually make sure we are using guys in such a way that we're accentuating what they do best. We've had a weird trend lately of guys showing promise early and then never really reaching a higher level -- Brissett and Lydon are both good players but look like fishes out of water offensively for some reason; Battle improved but we really probably needed him to do wayyyyy too much; Frank got better but never developed into the senior leader that helps make a 20-win season more like a 23-win season; Chukwu was stronger with the ball incredibly inconsistent; Sidibe is probably injured but obviously had a rough year; Dolezaj's jumper improved but his numbers went backwards; Roberson is another of these guys, Cooney struggled with any sort of consistency ... the list goes on.

I specifically didn't mention recruiting b/c I don't think you need Zion to win a bunch of basketball games, but you've got to help these guys improve (and put them in positions to excel with your game plans). Recruiting misses haven't helped, we all know this, but Tennessee has zero top 100 recruits. Same for Buffalo. You can win a lot of games with non-Zions or RJ Barretts -- in fact, anyone thing Cam Reddish (another guy we had our eyes on early in the process) would have actually helped us this year or would he have been yet another guy lingering outside shooting contested jumpers?

So, with that, some individual thoughts:

Oshae
A lot of talk of Oshae regressing this year, but I actually thought he improved. His counting numbers were down, but that had to be expected somewhat with the addition of Hughes and even Buddy knocking down some shots in the second half of the season. Though not necessarily impressive, his numbers on 2-point FGs improved and he spent far less time outside the arc in the second half of the season.

I'm actually fine with Oshae shooting some threes. Obviously 27% is not going to cut it, but he's a player who can make that shot and kids today shoot threes. They just do. I'm OK with it. What he needs to do is spend more time on his mid-range game and working on going straight up instead of constantly leaning side to side or forwards trying to draw contact. Get post position, take a power dribble and go up strong. Catch the ball at the elbow, square up and knock that jumper down if they give it to you.

He's also a guy who would benefit from running the floor and using his athleticism in transition or unsettled situations.

Marek
Gotta add weight, obviously, but he's never going to come back jacked and play at 225, so he is what he is in that way to a degree. Also needs to cut down on the silly fouls. But ultimately I just have him working all summer on that jumper. Make teams pay for playing you with heavier dudes. Step out and knock down some threes, cut across the lane and knock down the jumper. Get confident with that jumper and play aggressively offensively. I really think this is a kid who should be a double-figure scorer -- or at least it should be something that happens far more often than the three times we saw it this year.

By the way, not saying Marek needs to start playing like he's christian laettner but if he's going to be playing big minutes at the 5 and he's going to be giving up some buckets on one end b/c of his lack of heft, he needs to confidently make some teams pay on the offensive end for playing him with stronger dudes.

One plus with Marek is that he could theoretically help us cover those corner threes a bit better than Chukwu.

Carey
Handle, handle, handle. I would be living with him in the gym working on his handle. His shooting will be fine even if he's not great from outside (we shouldn't lack for shooting) but he's a very quick kid with a pretty nice feel for getting to the basket and finding teammates. If he's strong with the ball, that would be a nice help for this team that could have two guys playing at the 2 without great handles (Buddy, JGIII) and a team in desperate need of being able to play a guy who can up the tempo, which we've seen Jalen do.

Defensively his rotations in the zone aren't great, but that's not that unusual for a frosh. Hopefully those get better with reps b/c he's quick enough and long enough to be solid.

Hughes
Hughes had a pretty solid initial year but he's got to diversify his game a bit. He took 68% of his shots from three, which is probably OK b/c he's not settling for a ton of mid-range jumpers, but he's a guy who can finish those 15-footers and get shots in the paint and should be able to get to the line more (about 3 FTs a game). But ultimately what would really help is if he's a stronger rebounder (4.7 rpg in ACC play isn't getting it done) and he's rarely finding teammates (1.5 assists/game in ACC play).

That three spot is typically a guy who can do a bunch of things and right now Hughes is mostly a spot up shooter and not even a guy we get coming off screens very often. This is where a better offensive system might be able to help him. Right now, if he's shooting well he's a big player for us, but when he's not his game is limited to the occasional weak side block or a steal now and then. That's got to improve.

Buddy
There were lots of Buddy/Rautins comps during the season which was driving me crazy b/c while Buddy shot the ball very well and improved defensively, he's still at best an average defensive player (Rautins, at least as a senior was elite), adequate but not great or even good passer (Rautins was excellent), and he's still learning how to move enough without the ball to generate enogh open looks to be a consistent scorer (which is fine, he's a freshman). But one of the best compliments you can pay a player is to say they had a positive impact even when they were missing shots. Rautins was big this way. Buddy, not so much.

Love to see Buddy absolutely crush conditioning in the offseason. If he can get himself a half-step quicker it would make a huge difference on both ends of the floor. He has to take a big step forward defensively and he has to be able to catch-and-shoot quickly. If you watch Reddick play, he is wearing people out with his movement and he's gotten faster as a pro. He is in constant motion offensively and then he's working hard on the other end. Elite conditioning is the only way to sustain that.

Sidibe
Get healthy. If that's possible it would be a massive lift for this team. Hard to state just how important that is.

Braswell
No idea what his offseason should be since we saw so little of him, but he's an intriguing guy. Hard to imagine he's going to play a big role with Guerrier coming in and Oshae likely back in the fold, but I will say I thought he showed some nice feel for the game when he got opportunities.

Summary
Hard to imagine we'll be dramatically different next year than this. Should still be competitive and have some nice moments but would think it will still be a team with enough holes that it will be frustrating at times. The team goal, IMO, should be coming out ready to compete from game 1. Really a pretty brutal pre-conference season this year with two blowout losses to UConn and Oregon back-to-back (and UConn sucked), a loss to UB which hurts even if they are pretty good and a loss to a decent ODU team but one that we had a 12-point second-half lead on. That's not to mention some games against lesser teams that were far too close for comfort. Need to be better early.

It'll also be interesting to watch what we get from the new kids. But ultimately it's not the most exciting time to be a syracuse basketball fan these days.

Great write up! Agree with all that you said however, JB never changes so expect the same offense for the next 3-4 years.

 

[TinyManInside]

Shameless bump b/c I’m interested in what people think on this looking forward to next season.

I think I agree with all of your points, and next year's returning roster is one of the weaker set of returnees (given the number of players back) I've seen on a Boeheim coached team.

 

[AlaskaSU]

Concerned about Carey how? As a player or him transferring?

I get what you're saying about Rautins, though I'd argue he was a good passer from day 1. My biggest thing is Rautins made second-team all-BE. His name gets thrown around as basically a good shooter -- which he was -- but he made that team b/c people recognized how much impact he had defensively and offensively (pushing the tempo with long outlets and creatively finding people for easy buckets game after game). I realize this was not what Andy was as a frosh, per se, but rather my point is two-fold: 1) that's a really high bar and 2) a lot of projection. Buddy would need to get demonstrably quicker to be that kind of factor defensively and really round out his offensive game to be that kind of player overall. I'm not sure it's impossible, just think it's a tall ask and I feel like a lot of folks here view Rautins as a guy who was a really good shooter and that's about it.

Agree with you that Rautins evolved into a well rounded star player, borderline NBA skills. Some of his thread-the-needle passes have yet to be matched. They are etched in my mind. I was hard on him during his first 2 years, so maybe I am wrong about Carey. My concern with Carey is that he is a playground player; a slasher without an outside shot who is careless with the ball and not a good decision maker. The usual caveat - hope I'm wrong.

 

[CardiacCuse]

I think I’d be comfortable making the arguement that senior year Rautins was the best overall SU shooting guard since Moten.

waiters

 

[CardiacCuse]

i think (and hope) there will be 1 or 2 more players on next years team that are currently not on the roster - a grad transfer center would be a nice pick-up...a big with bulk would be huge.

but even if that doesn't happen...with all the depth, it would be awesome to play a pressing attack all game or a lot of the game and just shuffle players in an out...would be fun to watch.

 

[CardiacCuse]

I think I agree with all of your points, and next year's returning roster is one of the weaker set of returnees (given the number of players back) I've seen on a Boeheim coached team.

it happens a lot though - several times the returning players have been relatively weak - and bam out of nowhere the team is actually very good...

 

[billsin01]

Agree with you that Rautins evolved into a well rounded star player, borderline NBA skills. Some of his thread-the-needle passes have yet to be matched. They are etched in my mind. I was hard on him during his first 2 years, so maybe I am wrong about Carey. My concern with Carey is that he is a playground player; a slasher without an outside shot who is careless with the ball and not a good decision maker. The usual caveat - hope I'm wrong.

Concern about Carey as a player (or maybe even potential transfer) is warranted, just wasn't sure what you were referring to. What I like about him in a way, however, is that he does have that ability to potentially be an actual playmaker which we don't really have (and haven't really had) on the roster ... unless Goodine fits that bill. The fact that he wants to get out and run and make plays is a nice personality addition, but that kind of energy can be a negative if it's unchecked. So, a shorter way of saying this, would be that yes, I don't think anyone can count on any sort of production from him until we see him produce if he's handed the reins.

 

[OrangeDW]

Dude. This is about the 83rd time I've seen this (not all you, but I think you have posted this before). I get this. I'm not arguing that your point isn't true. I'm not even arguing that I definitively know Buddy won't be better than Andy.

I'm simply saying senior year Rautins is a very, very high bar. I don't care if he was a team manager as a freshman, for Buddy to get there he needs to get quicker, and improve remarkably on the defensive end while emerging as an elite passer and an elite shooter. Or some other such combination that puts him in that discussion. And, to be clear, I'm rooting for this to happen.

But let's also not forget that vast improvement year-over-year is far from a guarantee. Ask Roberson ... or Lydon ... or Frank Howard ... or Oshae ... or any one of a number of guys. There are players like Gbinije, Rautins, Rak and CJ Fair who take some sort of path that leads to significant improvement. There are others that don't find that success.

One thing about Rautins is his senior year was his 5th year.

Not that tearing an ACL is a positive, but if I recall correctly, he seemed to put on a lot of muscle by the time he was able to play again as a 3rd year sophomore.

And because he was able to improve so much over the years, by the time he was a 5th year senior - that extra time benefited him IMO.

 

[billsin01]

I think I agree with all of your points, and next year's returning roster is one of the weaker set of returnees (given the number of players back) I've seen on a Boeheim coached team.

I agree to the extent that there feels like a ton of variability in what is actually returning.

A healthy Sidibe would be a nice piece, IMO, but we have no idea if we'll ever see a truly healthy Sidibe. Brissett is athletic enough and a hard enough worker that he should take a step forward, but we thought we'd see more of that this year (I'd make the case he improved but not as much as we would have liked.

Howard Washington? Complete unknown. I like Marek's game but the numbers dipped this year and he needs to get stronger to handle longer stretches at the 5 at least against better and/or bigger teams. No idea if that happens. Carey? Wildcard. Braswell? Wildcard. Buddy? Should be better and maybe a bigger threat coming off screens and on the defensive end, but outside of his shooting there are still a lot of question marks.

Anyway, it's a huge question mark in general. That can work out fine some years but it certainly leaves a bit of an uneasy feeling.

 

[billsin01]

One thing about Rautins is his senior year was his 5th year.

Not that tearing an ACL is a positive, but if I recall correctly, he seemed to put on a lot of muscle by the time he was able to play again as a 3rd year sophomore.

And because he was able to improve so much over the years, by the time he was a 5th year senior - that extra time benefited him IMO.

Yup, definitely didn't hurt his development overall. I guess the issue is player comps are tough period b/c very few players are really super close in terms of skill set. I'd look at it more as a scale with Janulis on one end (Buddy is already probably close to where Janulis was as a senior save for some improvement defensively), Cooney in the middle (streaky, frustrating at times but a guy who contributed on both ends of the floor and had nice athleticism and production, by and large) and Rautins on the high end. Guys like Waiters and Devendorf probably end up on a different scale b/c they could create for themselves

Buddy could, theoretically exceed Rautins on that scale by the time he's a senior. That is a possibility. But I'm just not sure he has that much variety in his game. We will see. Certainly hope he does b/c that would be a big lift for us.

 

[billsin01]

Well I keep seeing people compare freshman year players to how they remember former players as seniors. Doesn’t make much sense really.

Fair, but it's not really how we remember Rautins -- he was actually voted second team all-Big East and he actually put up 5 assists a game on a team that went out and won basically every game they played in a tough conference. I mean, generally memories are fonder as we become more removed from players, but it's pretty well-documented that he was one of the best players in a really good league on a team that had title aspirations.

The bottom line, for me at least, on buddy is that as impressive as his debut was, he's going to either have to really diversify his game (obviously this is a possiblity) or become an absolute monster shooter who moves really, really well without the ball (again, there is a possibility of this) before we start making the Rautins comps b/c we're not talking about a guy was just 'pretty good', we're talking about a guy who was a huge piece of probably one of the three (?) best teams we've had in the past 25 or so years.

 

[PauliePeppas]

One thing about Rautins is his senior year was his 5th year.

Not that tearing an ACL is a positive, but if I recall correctly, he seemed to put on a lot of muscle by the time he was able to play again as a 3rd year sophomore.

And because he was able to improve so much over the years, by the time he was a 5th year senior - that extra time benefited him IMO.

Yup...him playing for Canadian national team coming off that tear was huge as wel

 

[walsh2012]

what i hope to see our lineup look like next season (assuming no Brissett):

PG: JG3 / Goodine / HW
SG: Carey / Boeheim / Goodine
SF: Hughes / QG / Brasswell
PF: Dolezaj / QG / Hughes / Brasswell
C: JBA / Sidibe / Edwards / (INSERT 5th YR HOPEFULLY)