Lunardi

[Garbs]

Bottom line is whoever advances farther in their conference tourney (assuming we both win our final game) will be the #1 overall seed. If we both run the table then its a coin flip.

UK has 2 games left

 

[Marsh01]

UK has 2 games left

Right, florida and Georgia. Forgot about the georgia game

 

[CorduroyG]

Kentucky is gonna have their hands full with florida, that will not be an easy game, despite how they destroyed them at rupp. People seem to think kentucky has been killing every team. Just in the last couple weeks they were tied late in the 1st half at home against ole miss, they were losing almost the entire game against mississippi st, and were just in a dogfight at home against vandy.

 

[Knicks411]

Kentucky is gonna have their hands full with florida, that will not be an easy game, despite how they destroyed them at rupp. People seem to think kentucky has been killing every team. Just in the last couple weeks they were tied late in the 1st half at home against ole miss, they were losing almost the entire game against mississippi st, and were just in a dogfight at home against vandy.

Kentucky has kind of been the opposite of us; they end up the game with nice margins, though they are often close prior.

On the whole, they have a crazy point differential in SEC play though.

Both teams are deserving, its too close to call right now, but i GUARANTEE if the tables were reversed and anthony davis was out for the indiana game and kentucky got blown out, that game would get thrown out the window.

I think also if ND was considered good before the game we played them, we would've gotten some more slack.

 

[jncuse]

Margin of victory shouldnt come into play, this aint college football. We were not mentally ready for that game, its the ONLY game all year we werent, you dont think missing fab had anything to do with that?

Both teams are deserving, its too close to call right now, but i GUARANTEE if the tables were reversed and anthony davis was out for the indiana game and kentucky got blown out, that game would get thrown out the window.

"This ain't college football" and yet you support the committee guessing what the results of games would have been in order to rank teams - totally subjective. Sounds alot like a polling system -- this ain't college football.

I never said that Melo did not have any impact on the game. But what is the threshold? Does Michael Eric at Temple have an impact for the games he missed? My suspicion has always been that the committee has a very high threshold for considering results or assessing the impact of imjuries (only one I remember is Kenyon Martin and he was player of the year) . It is way too subjective, for a process that tries to be as objective as possible.

And if they are acting as I suspect, I totally support it. I don't want the committee playing god with results. Take the W's and L's and go from there. Although I guess its easier to do, when the two teams debated are so visible and well known.

 

[CorduroyG]

"This ain't college football" and yet you support the committee guessing what the results of games would have been in order to rank teams - totally subjective. Sounds alot like a polling system -- this ain't college football.

I never said that Melo did not have any impact on the game. But what is the threshold? Does Michael Eric at Temple have an impact for the games he missed? My suspicion has always been that the committee has a very high threshold for considering results or assessing the impact of imjuries. It is way too subjective, for a process that tries to be as objective as possible.

The committee takes injuries into consideration, i assume they do the same for suspensions. Im not saying i support it or not, im just stating a fact. They DO NOT take into consideration margin of victory, so whether syracuse lost by 20 or 1 to notre dame is irrelevant when the committee looks at that game.

If syracuse and kentucky both win out, you wouldnt give syracuse the benefit of the doubt for losing their only game without fab?

 

[Knicks411]

The committee takes injuries into consideration, i assume they do the same for suspensions. Im not saying i support it or not, im just stating a fact. They DO NOT take into consideration margin of victory, so whether syracuse lost by 20 or 1 to notre dame is irrelevant when the committee looks at that game.

If syracuse and kentucky both win out, you wouldnt give syracuse the benefit of the doubt for losing their only game without fab?

I think they do take margin into account; at least some of them do. They have access to the Pomeroy, Sagarin, etc ratings.

If SU and UK win out, I would probably end up with SU getting the #1 seed, I think. SU would add in all probability 4 wins against NCAA tournament teams (or at least 3 and a bubble team), where as UK would probably win @ Florida, plus maybe 2 NCAA teams in the SEC tourny?

 

[jncuse]

The committee takes injuries into consideration, i assume they do the same for suspensions. Im not saying i support it or not, im just stating a fact. They DO NOT take into consideration margin of victory, so whether syracuse lost by 20 or 1 to notre dame is irrelevant when the committee looks at that game.

If syracuse and kentucky both win out, you wouldnt give syracuse the benefit of the doubt for losing their only game without fab?

Yes the committee can consider injuries and suspensions, that is indeed a fact. But the threshold for the level of players they are using is unknown. Personally, I don't believe Syracuse should get benefit of doubt for that game. I don't want the committee guessing on things, because where do you stop? What if Ryan Kelly was hurt against UNC - is that game not considered? Take the W and L and select from there.

It has been reported by some sources (and I have read) that the committee does consider margin of victory (via an adjusted scoring marging metric) in the seeding process only, and in particular to help seed mid major teams. I'm not going to say its 100% fact, but I am not discounting it either.

It is not part of the nitty gritty metrics, and from what I understand is not used to select the teams that get into the tournament.

 

[jncuse]

Anyway good counter points CorduroyG - I think we both agree its close. I don't think the committee will give credit for Melo, but maybe they will since its easy to do in comparing two highly visible teams in SU and UK. I still lean towards UK getting it, but the counter arguments re. Melo have changed it from say 80-20 to 60-40

I just see that some would be outraged if UK got the #1 overall, and its close enough to avoid any rage. Its not like when Duke overtook us on the one line in 2010. That made me very upset -- maybe its the Duke hate factors which is even higher for me then UK.

 

[Garbs]

Yes the committee can consider injuries and suspensions, that is indeed a fact. But the threshold for the level of players they are using is unknown. Personally, I don't believe Syracuse should get benefit of doubt for that game. I don't want the committee guessing on things, because where do you stop? What if Ryan Kelly was hurt against UNC - is that game not considered? Take the W and L and select from there.

It has been reported by some sources (and I have read) that the committee does consider margin of victory (via an adjusted scoring marging metric) in the seeding process only, and in particular to help seed mid major teams. I'm not going to say its 100% fact, but I am not discounting it either.

It is not part of the nitty gritty metrics, and from what I understand is not used to select the teams that get into the tournament.

you are reading too much into this, the premise of my post was if we are exactly even(one loss or 2 each) then I think they would absolutely consider it, no one is saying they should examine every teams and who missed what game and start adjusting teams W/L, but if 2 teams are even you start digging deeper

 

[jncuse]

you are reading too much into this, the premise of my post was if we are exactly even(one loss or 2 each) then I think they would absolutely consider it, no one is saying they should examine every teams and who missed what game and start adjusting teams W/L, but if 2 teams are even you start digging deeper

Perhaps. I am a person that used to prepare brackets for the Bracket Project, and I have spent way too much time observing, analyzing, trying to interpret over the years. Its like doing a puzzle for me, and I am certainly not always right, but I think I have some decent insights that I like to share. I stopped doing the bracket project largely due to time, but I thought the premise of being "tested" on the year end bracket was always a little silly That assumes the committee has all the right answers -- which is totally absurd. I enjoy the discussion and analysis throughout the entire year.
As I mentioned in the post above, the discussion we had moved me from 80-20 for UK to 60-40 for SU. Your right in that it is alot easier to argue the injury impact for two highly visible teams, and that is the main reason for my changing assessment.

 

[Orangemen]

Yes the committee can consider injuries and suspensions, that is indeed a fact. But the threshold for the level of players they are using is unknown. Personally, I don't believe Syracuse should get benefit of doubt for that game. I don't want the committee guessing on things, because where do you stop? What if Ryan Kelly was hurt against UNC - is that game not considered? Take the W and L and select from there.

It has been reported by some sources (and I have read) that the committee does consider margin of victory (via an adjusted scoring marging metric) in the seeding process only, and in particular to help seed mid major teams. I'm not going to say its 100% fact, but I am not discounting it either.

It is not part of the nitty gritty metrics, and from what I understand is not used to select the teams that get into the tournament.

When a team only has 1 loss, and the only loss came without their starting center, it's hard to argue that the loss of the player was not impactful.

I don't know that the loss even matters for us. We're competing with Kentucky for the #1 overall, so it will come down to wins. If the loss enters into the discussion, I assume it will be very quickly eliminated as a factor.