mcw and the nba

[IthacaMatt]

No, but I think the idea is that the longer you play and the more tape teams have on you, the easier it is to find flaws (because everyone, save for the Lebrons of the world, have significant flaws.

That's obviously not a universal thing, guys can stay in school and improve their draft stock, or even stay in school and maintain it. But I think once you have proven yourself as a lottery talent, it seems that more often than not the guys who stick around for that extra year end up having their draft stock hurt more often than helped. Especially because there is always a new class of raw freshmen who have lots of potential who are ready to be drafted.

While this is somewhat true, most players do improve by staying in college, at least for that 2nd or 3rd year. People may say that you don't have limited practice time when you are a pro, but when you are a pro, during the season the travel demands don't lead to a lot of quality practices as opposed to walk-thru's and game planning the next opponent.

In college, the player gets the benefit of learning how to be "the man" against quality opposition. While some guys like MCW may flash some skills, there is no doubt that he needs to improve as a shooter. and his decision making, which looked great earlier in the season, has become a bit more suspect, as he drives the lane more often than he used to instead of moving the ball to open teammates.

Compare him to Jonny Flynn, who was much more polished and "in control" of his team and the game. Jonny's game wasn't going to get any better by coming back - we were just hoping for a deeper run than the Sweet 16 he and Harris and Devendoft delivered.

The question with MCW, especially if we don't make it past the Sweet 16 AGAIN, is will he be better off going in the 10-15 range in the first round, or taking a gamble and coming back to play on a potentially great team. No offense to this year's squad, but I think our bigs are going to be much better next year, Fair & Grant at forward, Cooney hopefully over the jitters, and we are getting a real influx of talent with 5 new guys coming in, and another Top 40 kind of player coming off a red shirt year. Although Ennis would be surprised and pissed, we would be a dynamite team next year with MCW back.

 

[Knicks411]

I think, and this might say something about the draft and how it works more than anything else, but improving your play doesn't always equal improving your draft stock. As has been mentioned tons of times here and other places, NBA teams often draft on potential, so you might improve your game, but it might not be as much as a team has projected you to, so even though you are going forward you end up moving backward in the draft.

Basically, this is kinda how i look at it. Consider a basic 1-10 rating scale for players. I'm making these numbers up right now, but let's say NBA teams see MCW as a 4 right now, who has the chance to become an 8. He might come back next year, and improve his jumper a little, his decision making a tad, so he improves to a 5. But now there is more tape on him, another year against high level competition, and while overall he is better, teams might see enough flaws in his game to where the ultimate upside has dropped to a 7, and maybe they'd rather take the chance on the new big thing who is still only a 3.5 or 4 but they think they can turn him into an 8.5.

 

[Tobias Funke]

Moving up from Late lottery pick to early lottery pick may mean some more money, but it is another year that he cannot make money if he were to stay. Also it is another year off of his careeer. I have always been in the camp that if you can go pro and get guranteed money you take it. Couple that with the fact that it is a weak draft and the timing is perfect.

 

[Francis03]

Because he played with Trevor and Rak on his AAU team, and they were among the best in the country. He probably thought he would play a bit more as a frosh, but he saw that Scoop was only going to be here 1 more year, and all players do benefit from learning from more experienced guys around them as they step up a level, even those who think they are going to be pros shortly.

Dion played with Rak and Trevor on Team Final not MCW. MCW played for the Boston based BABC program with Noel. MCW and Rak only played together in the burger/Jordan game.

 

[Oakland]

I think, and this might say something about the draft and how it works more than anything else, but improving your play doesn't always equal improving your draft stock. As has been mentioned tons of times here and other places, NBA teams often draft on potential, so you might improve your game, but it might not be as much as a team has projected you to, so even though you are going forward you end up moving backward in the draft.

Basically, this is kinda how i look at it. Consider a basic 1-10 rating scale for players. I'm making these numbers up right now, but let's say NBA teams see MCW as a 4 right now, who has the chance to become an 8. He might come back next year, and improve his jumper a little, his decision making a tad, so he improves to a 5. But now there is more tape on him, another year against high level competition, and while overall he is better, teams might see enough flaws in his game to where the ultimate upside has dropped to a 7, and maybe they'd rather take the chance on the new big thing who is still only a 3.5 or 4 but they think they can turn him into an 8.5.

I don't disagree with what you have stated. But there is another issue - the second contract. Lets say that you have to be a 7 to stay in the league for a second contract. MCW going to the league as 5 with another year of maturity may be the difference of getting to 7 by the time his second contract comes up. Whereas, it is harder to go from a 4 to a 7 in the league where they don't practice as much, and he would be on the bench a lot, and he would have one less year of college ball.

 

[Knicks411]

That's true to an extent, but I think you underestimate how much you can improve in the NBA. You have access to better coaching, better players, and more time (though there isn't always as much full practice time with the team, you can work out with the coaches).

Obviously it's a balancing act; but I also think a lot of guys want to get to that second contract ASAP

 

[realorange]

That's true to an extent, but I think you underestimate how much you can improve in the NBA. You have access to better coaching, better players, and more time (though there isn't always as much full practice time with the team, you can work out with the coaches).

Obviously it's a balancing act; but I also think a lot of guys want to get to that second contract ASAP

This is why there is a D League. If they aren't going to play at the NBA level and sit on the bench, they'll get there experience in D League. Personally, I don't see MCW being drafted so high that they'll want him anywhere but D League.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Moving up from Late lottery pick to early lottery pick may mean some more money, but it is another year that he cannot make money if he were to stay. Also it is another year off of his careeer. I have always been in the camp that if you can go pro and get guranteed money you take it. Couple that with the fact that it is a weak draft and the timing is perfect.

Yeah, but if a player is really good - clearly first round talent - what you really want is to be good enough, and ready enough, to get your SECOND contract. Look at Donte Greene. His first contract is up, and he wasn't ready when he got drafted, took him until his 3rd year to learn how to rebound and play defense, and now he may never get that 2nd contract.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Dion played with Rak and Trevor on Team Final not MCW. MCW played for the Boston based BABC program with Noel. MCW and Rak only played together in the burger/Jordan game.

My bad. Thanks.

 

[Tobias Funke]

Yeah, but if a player is really good - clearly first round talent - what you really want is to be good enough, and ready enough, to get your SECOND contract. Look at Donte Greene. His first contract is up, and he wasn't ready when he got drafted, took him until his 3rd year to learn how to rebound and play defense, and now he may never get that 2nd contract.

I understand that point, but you do not take a risk of dropping in the draft, specifically when you have the opportunity to go top ten. You can develop as well in the D League as you can in Div 1. Donte was looking at his second contract before his injury with the Nets. Extenuating circumstances kept him from that contract. I would rather miss out on my second contract due to injury or diminished value, than my first.

 

[Knicks411]

Donte has made $5 million in the NBA, so he's probably doing ok.

But he's also an example of a guy who had a chance to come back to school and improve his stock. He went 28th overall, not like he as a lottery guy.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Different sport, but Matt Barkley played himself out of a top 10 pick.

Sent from my Vortex using Tapatalk 2

My point is that a player is either a lottery level talent or he isn't. If he is, then that will shine through in the 50th game tape just as much as the first. If he isn't, then it will show the second he reports to camp and/or his first half season in the league. That second class of players have a choice: fool the GMs into somehow wasting a high pick on you, get the garaunteed first contract and then tank, losing any hope of longevity in the NBA, or try to turn the potential you showed into maybe a lower pick but greater prospects of a longer career.

It is MCW's dream to play in the NBA. Is it really his dream to disappoint everyone in the world by being over picked and to be completely discredited as a pro basketball player at the end of that first contract? We know for a fact that locking up the million dollar paycheck one year earlier only means he will be one year younger when he goes completely broke so the money isn't a compelling argument.

 

[Knicks411]

The money is clearly a compelling argument because it's the main reason most guys go pro. And while a lot of players go broke, it's not like it's a fact that they all do.

I don't think the thought process is "I'm not that good but some GM's do, so I'm going to go pro and get paid and then fail out of the league in 4 years" it's something like "I've dreamed of playing in the NBA my whole life, I can go in the lottery, become a millionaire right away and play with the best players in the world. Maybe I'm not quite ready to be a star (though I'm sure a lot of guys think they are, and have people convincing them they are) but I'd rather be learning in the NBA and getting paid than starring in college"

And look, for a lot of them, it doesn't work out. I don't think anyone is denying that. I'm actually not even sure if I disagree with you so I'll probably just stop talking now

 

[LetMeIn]

That second class of players have a choice: fool the GMs into somehow wasting a high pick on you, get the garaunteed first contract and then tank, losing any hope of longevity in the NBA, or try to turn the potential you showed into maybe a lower pick but greater prospects of a longer career.

You keep implying that some of these players are trying to trick or fool a GM into taking them, but I don't think that is the case. I look at it more as optimizing their market value. Its sort of like selling a stock. You could have sold Apple in Oct for 700 dollars, now its down to 400. Fundamentally it's still the same company and it's still a lot of money, but it could have been more if you sold it sooner.

MCW's draft value, which at this point is his only known value, will never be any higher, so why take the chance it may go down. Sure maybe by playing for Syracuse for another year, he increases his draft stock falls but he increases his chances of a second contract. But regardless of he leaves this year or next, his ceiling as a basketball player is still ultimately the same (e.g. playing one more year in Syracuse won't make him 7'0 tall or increase his footspeed) and whether or not he achieves his full potential is ultimately up to him.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Letmein, I see your point. I think MCW is one of those cases though where I can see specifically how another year will help him improve in ways I think will be much harder riding an NBA bench. Dion? No, he wasn't going to develop more here than Cleveland, but MCW is so clearly a work in progress. I hate the risk he'd be taking by leaving.

 

[moqui]

Letmein, I see your point. I think MCW is one of those cases though where I can see specifically how another year will help him improve in ways I think will be much harder riding an NBA bench. Dion? No, he wasn't going to develop more here than Cleveland, but MCW is so clearly a work in progress. I hate the risk he'd be taking by leaving.

the flaw in your argument is your assertion that he is going to be "riding an NBA bench." If MCW is selected in the lottery, most likely it will be by a team that has a PG hole on its depth chart, and MCW will get either starter or solid backup minutes from the jump. Even if he's the backup, he'll probably get 500 to 1000 more minutes on the floor in the 82 game NBA season than he would in a typical 35-38 game NCAA year.

Plus, it appears from what I have read that it is pretty much a given in NBA circles that most players stop improving by the time they are 24 or 25, which is why there is such resistance to take kids who are going to be 23 when the season begins, giving them only 1 year to learn and develop under NBA coaching.

 

[Knicks411]

Plus, it appears from what I have read that it is pretty much a given in NBA circles that most players stop improving by the time they are 24 or 25, which is why there is such resistance to take kids who are going to be 23 when the season begins, giving them only 1 year to learn and develop under NBA coaching.

wonder if this might go double for a kid who has been playing zone D his entire college career

 

[IthacaMatt]

Donte has made $5 million in the NBA, so he's probably doing ok.

But he's also an example of a guy who had a chance to come back to school and improve his stock. He went 28th overall, not like he as a lottery guy.

He thought he was a lottery pick but he got bad advice & listened to the wrong people.

 

[kirbivore]

But I will give you a list of people who hurt themselves staying in college
2. Paul Harris - cost him a lot

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree about Paul Harris. I think he would have gotten laughed out of NBA pre draft workouts.

 

[RF2044]

He thought he was a lottery pick but he got bad advice & listened to the wrong people.

Yup. And he also had some pressure to jump given his family situation, the timing with the birth of his kid, etc.

Greene would have been much better off returning, and probably would have had a big impact here as a soph that would have pushed him much earlier into the first round had he come back.

 

[CusefanATL]

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree about Paul Harris. I think he would have gotten laughed out of NBA pre draft workouts.

but at 19 he still has bounds of potential.

at 22, he doesn't get drafted.

rest my case.

keep in mind... MCW isnt a 19 yr old soph. He is 21 and 4 or 5 months.

 

[LetMeIn]

Letmein, I see your point. I think MCW is one of those cases though where I can see specifically how another year will help him improve in ways I think will be much harder riding an NBA bench. Dion? No, he wasn't going to develop more here than Cleveland, but MCW is so clearly a work in progress. I hate the risk he'd be taking by leaving.

I also see your points about MCW. In his specific case, his long term career may benefit with an extra year here because his two biggest issues are his lack of playing experience (He has only started 26 games) and his maturity. Those are both things that can only be improved with more playing time.

However, I think this is an excellent illustration, of what I was trying to say and of the the dilemma a lot of the one and done guys face. Do you take a one time maximum payout, or do you risk a lower payout with a chance for a longer career?

I think you and I are recognizing the same issues and just coming down on different sides of it.

 

[BostonOrange]

Yup. And he also had some pressure to jump given his family situation, the timing with the birth of his kid, etc.

Greene would have been much better off returning, and probably would have had a big impact here as a soph that would have pushed him much earlier into the first round had he come back.

A lot of good points in this thread...but to me it's really pretty simple: 1. If you are good, in the long run it doesn't matter when you come out. Yeah you might go a little higher if you stay and blow up, or lower as your flaws are exposed, but as long as you can play you are going to end up getting paid. Hell for some guys it ended up being BETTER to go in round 2 and not have the guaranteed contract (Boozer and Agent Zero come to mind) Tim Duncan stayed 4 years and he's done ok. KG and Kobe went straight to the NBA and they've done just fine too. 2. If you aren't good, but you are 'projectable', then you should come out as soon as you possibly can and get that contract. The longer you stay the better the chance that people will figure out you can't play. To me Donte fit in this category. Do you really think that if he stayed longer he'd be a better player today? I don't.

 

[RF2044]

A lot of good points in this thread...but to me it's really pretty simple: 1. If you are good, in the long run it doesn't matter when you come out. Yeah you might go a little higher if you stay and blow up, or lower as your flaws are exposed, but as long as you can play you are going to end up getting paid. Hell for some guys it ended up being BETTER to go in round 2 and not have the guaranteed contract (Boozer and Agent Zero come to mind) Tim Duncan stayed 4 years and he's done ok. KG and Kobe went straight to the NBA and they've done just fine too. 2. If you aren't good, but you are 'projectable', then you should come out as soon as you possibly can and get that contract. The longer you stay the better the chance that people will figure out you can't play. To me Donte fit in this category. Do you really think that if he stayed longer he'd be a better player today? I don't.

I do. Don't underestimate the importance of getting additional game experience under your belt. NBA players don't have the same type of practice schedules that college players do. Yes, they can work with assistant coaches without restriction [unlike college], but many days where they are traveling, have back-to-back games, etc. they might not even practice beyond walk throughs / shoot arounds. I also remember reading an article several years ago where a backup center [might have been Tree Rollins, but I can't recall--like I said, this was a long time ago] talked about how important it was for him to do extra cardio to stay in game shape, because he wasn't playing enough minutes in games to maintain peak physical condition.

In my mind the question becomes whether Donte would have improved his draft position by adding a year of physical maturity and game development and playing a figural role as a starter on a team that might have been capable of making a deep run [made the BET finals without him], versus sitting as a rookie. If he's shown better shot selection as a more experienced player, better rebounding [he averaged 7+ as a skinny frosh], etc. then his draft position would have probably improved, meaning that he would have made more $$$ as a function of where he was drafted.

And even if he wasn't a good player with long-term NBA longevity, at the very least making the additional money over one contract would have been better than making less money as the #28 pick, for the same number of years.

 

[kirbivore]

but at 19 he still has bounds of potential.

at 22, he doesn't get drafted.

rest my case.

keep in mind... MCW isnt a 19 yr old soph. He is 21 and 4 or 5 months.

I don't disagree with the overall point that guys can hurt their stock by staying. I just don't think Paul Harris fits. At age 19 he never gets drafted. His handle and shot never were NBA material. Also only being 6'4 didn't help. Any GM who wasted a 1st round pick on him wouldn't have a job very long.