There are plenty of examples of career AC's getting their chance and failing, succeeding, or having mediocre careers. I don't draw any conclusions from a few cherry picked examples. I just believe that our chances of the program not dropping off would be higher bringing in a Jay Wright, a Sean Miller, a Gregg Marshall, and yes--a Shaka Smart than it would bringing in a generally unproven commodity with 9 games of coaching experience that didn't go well under his belt.
It is probably a moot point--as Jake / Dasher have said, Wildhack probably will honor the deal.
1st Point I would make is hiring a coach is an
extremely uncertain endeavor. No matter which route we take there are no guarantees that we (i) make a great decision (because the decision is likely going to be a group decision to some degree - doubt it would be 100% Wildhack's decision to make) or (ii) that the candidate selected no matter how great a decision it seems at the time, actually works out. Every time someone hires a new head coach at any level the people doing the hiring believe they are making a good decision for the program/franchise they are hiring for and they expect that coach to have success. However, the nature of the beast is that the majority of these hires will not be as successful as the people hiring them intend for them to be. I mean everyone that is competing at a major level expects to win...and inherently everyone can't.
2nd Point - what makes you think that SU would invest the money in its basketball coach to bring the caliber of coach that you have suggested as example good candidates. They are all making big money, none have ties to SU and none would come cheap. Given what the reality of the situation is, this course would be doubly costly because we'd also likely be paying some form of buyout/break up fee to Hop on top of whatever we were paying the new coach. While it may make sense to hire someone who is a proven winner; I don't think circumstances would allow us to get the caliber of guy that our fanbase would be satisfied with in place of Hop. Just as an idea here are
salaries that USA today published. I think these are a little stale, but it gives you the idea that most anyone that you are going to view as "proven" is going to be mucho $$$. You run out of proven candidates very quickly if you aren't willing/able to blow their socks off or they don't have a nature allegiance to your program.
Sean Miller AZ $4.5 million
Bob Huggins WV $3.325 million
Kevin Ollie UConn $3.1 million
Greg Marshall WSU $3 million
Lon Kruger OK $2.8 million
Smart TX $2.8 million
Beilein Mich. $2.76 million
Krystkowiak Utah $2.5 million
Matt Painter Purdue $2.4 million
Buzz Williams Va Tech $2.3 million
Mark Turgeon MD $2.3 million
JB SU $2.144 million
Tony Bennett UVA $2.1 million
Ed Cooley Prov. $1.6 million
3rd Point - To a degree JB may be the best person to know what it will take to succeed on a go forward as coach at SU. Certainly his opinion has to be given weight and he has backed Hopkins.
I would love it if Hopkins had 5-10 years of head coaching experience on his resume, but he doesn't. He does however have experiences that you won't get from other candidates. He has learned under one of the best. He understands SU (the school, the community, the administration, the basketball alumni and the fanbase), he has USA basketball experience.
There are no guarantees in life. Hop may not work out, but he is a reasonable hire.
