Mike Hopkins is our next coach...

[PhatOrange]

He get's paid more than JB now.

More money than Villanova. I'd make him the highest paid coach in college. This is a big boy basketball program, they need to act like it and I believe the admin will.

 

[SU94]

We've seen numerous examples in recent years about how difficult it is to replace coaching icons in college basketball, and rarely does it go well for the successor. Sometimes, it takes shools two or three subsequent hires [UNC, Indiana, etc.] to eventually right the ship. We've also seen numerous examples of coaches hand picking their replacements [Georgetown with Esherick, Guthridge at UNC] and said replacement making things a lot worse.
.

BTW, Guthridge is not the best example.
Here is his head coaching record at UNC:

1997-98: 34-4 (13-3 ACC), #1 Seed: Final Four (lost to Utah)
1998-99: 24-10 (10-6 ACC), #3 Seed: First-Round Upset (Weber State)
1999-2000: 22-14 (10-6 ACC), #8 Seed: Final Four (lost to Florida)
Final Tally: 80-28 (.740), 33-15 ACC, 2 Final Fours

You could argue that a recruiting dip came from Guth's regime, but UNC did go 26-7 in Dougherty's first year.

 

[RF2044]

1st Point I would make is hiring a coach is an extremely uncertain endeavor. No matter which route we take there are no guarantees that we (i) make a great decision (because the decision is likely going to be a group decision to some degree - doubt it would be 100% Wildhack's decision to make) or (ii) that the candidate selected no matter how great a decision it seems at the time, actually works out. Every time someone hires a new head coach at any level the people doing the hiring believe they are making a good decision for the program/franchise they are hiring for and they expect that coach to have success. However, the nature of the beast is that the majority of these hires will not be as successful as the people hiring them intend for them to be. I mean everyone that is competing at a major level expects to win...and inherently everyone can't.

2nd Point - what makes you think that SU would invest the money in its basketball coach to bring the caliber of coach that you have suggested as example good candidates. They are all making big money, none have ties to SU and none would come cheap. Given what the reality of the situation is, this course would be doubly costly because we'd also likely be paying some form of buyout/break up fee to Hop on top of whatever we were paying the new coach. While it may make sense to hire someone who is a proven winner; I don't think circumstances would allow us to get the caliber of guy that our fanbase would be satisfied with in place of Hop. Just as an idea here are salaries that USA today published. I think these are a little stale, but it gives you the idea that most anyone that you are going to view as "proven" is going to be mucho $$$. You run out of proven candidates very quickly if you aren't willing/able to blow their socks off or they don't have a nature allegiance to your program.

Sean Miller AZ $4.5 million
Bob Huggins WV $3.325 million
Kevin Ollie UConn $3.1 million
Greg Marshall WSU $3 million
Lon Kruger OK $2.8 million
Smart TX $2.8 million
Beilein Mich. $2.76 million
Krystkowiak Utah $2.5 million
Matt Painter Purdue $2.4 million
Buzz Williams Va Tech $2.3 million
Mark Turgeon MD $2.3 million
JB SU $2.144 million
Tony Bennett UVA $2.1 million
Ed Cooley Prov. $1.6 million

3rd Point - To a degree JB may be the best person to know what it will take to succeed on a go forward as coach at SU. Certainly his opinion has to be given weight and he has backed Hopkins.

I would love it if Hopkins had 5-10 years of head coaching experience on his resume, but he doesn't. He does however have experiences that you won't get from other candidates. He has learned under one of the best. He understands SU (the school, the community, the administration, the basketball alumni and the fanbase), he has USA basketball experience.

There are no guarantees in life. Hop may not work out, but he is a reasonable hire.

Reasonable points. Re: the money -- you do realize that JB is low paid not because Syracuse can't or won't pay more, but rather because he's never sought to maximize his compensation? JB is a rarity in that regard, in that he gets a couple million in salary, a bit more from Nike, and he's cool with that given the cost of living in CNY. That is a choice that he's actively made, in an era of escalating salaries for top coaches.

His compensation is in no way reflective of what his value on the open market would be. Nor is it indicative of what SU capacity to pay him is.

To get a top notch coach is going to require us to open up the checkbooks a little more. Thankfully, ACC revenues will allow us to do that. A program the caliber of ours, with the ability to win the attendance title any given year, with the associated revenues that come from that, shouldn't be afraid to invest in the basketball program, or be capped by some artificial constraint on spending what should be a reasonable amount of money for a head coach. I don't get what "circumstances" you are referring to that would prevent us from doing so.

As for the rest of your post, I don't disagree with the two other points you make. JB SHOULD have some input on the hire. I just question whether that should be the entire evaluative criteria that is applied, versus a formulaic input.

Yes, there are no guarantees in life. Which is why I'd PREFER a more experienced head coach, who DOES have the head coaching experience on his resume that Hopkins lacks. That doesn't mean that I won't actively support Hop if / when he is hired. Nobody is arguing that he isn't a "reasonable" hire. All that I'm saying is that I don't believe going this route affords the highest probability of success -- which is different than suggesting that he won't or can't succeed.

 

[Cusefan0307]

More money than Villanova. I'd make him the highest paid coach in college. This is a big boy basketball program, they need to act like it and I believe the admin will.

If he went 13-19 like he did in 2012 people here would want him fired too.

 

[RF2044]

BTW, Guthridge is not the best example.
Here is his head coaching record at UNC:

1997-98: 34-4 (13-3 ACC), #1 Seed: Final Four (lost to Utah)
1998-99: 24-10 (10-6 ACC), #3 Seed: First-Round Upset (Weber State)
1999-2000: 22-14 (10-6 ACC), #8 Seed: Final Four (lost to Florida)
Final Tally: 80-28 (.740), 33-15 ACC, 2 Final Fours

You could argue that a recruiting dip came from Guth's regime, but UNC did go 26-7 in Dougherty's first year.

Gutheridge was a hand picked successor who ended up being an EXTREMELY short timer, didn't replenish the talent pool, and most importantly won with Dean Smith's players. It's not so much that he specifically was a bad hire, but what came next. Him being older than the hills when he was hired wasn't a viable long term strategy for UNC, and they replaced him with Matt Doherty who then proceeded to run things into the ground.

But I agree, he was qualitatively different than Craig Escherick, Mike Davis at Indiana, Steve Lappas at Villanova, etc.

 

[two3zone]

My only concern with Hop is who he has on his staff. Gmac has to go IMO.

 

[SoBeCuse]

I don't necessarily think that will happen, but to rule it out as a possibility is preposterous. There are zero absolutes in sports, especially when it comes to coaches and their contracts.

This. Especially some verbal agreement based on 'loyalty.' Unless the OP is some sort of shaman or buddies with both Wildhack/Sveryrud; it is just as preposterous to assume it is a done deal.

 

[Cusefan0307]

This. Especially some verbal agreement based on 'loyalty.' Unless the OP is some sort of shaman or buddies with both Wildhack/Sveryrud; it is just as preposterous to assume it is a done deal.

Personally I don't know anything. I do know that several well respected posters on this board who are right about a lot of things recruiting and otherwise have said there is little chance we will rip up the contract. There are even posts on it in other threads on this board that have been made recently. Not sure why people keep coming back to ripping up the contract, because I trust the posters that say it won't happen. That's not the point of this thread. The point of this thread is how does Mike Hopkins succeed here.

 

[RF2044]

Personally I don't know anything. I do know that several well respected posters on this board who are right about a lot of things recruiting and otherwise have said there is little chance we will rip up the contract. There are even posts on it in other threads on this board that have been made recently. Not sure why people keep coming back to ripping up the contract, because I trust the posters that say it won't happen. That's not the point of this thread. The point of this thread is how does Mike Hopkins succeed here.

1. Implement his systems on both sides of the ball, modernizing our defensive concepts and bringing some versatility back to our offensive approach. Don't be afraid to break with the old way of doing things, even though many of those things brought us a lot of success
2. Hire an ace, bulldog recruiter [our Book Richardson] to be his second in command
3. Make point guard skill the focus of recruiting, not just length / height for the zone; don't sacrifice skill for size at this crucial position
4. Make the transition from being the players' friend / confidant to being their head coach

 

[manleyzoo]

Anyone who's ever played any sport in college probably knows there's basically two types of coaches: 1) The prove-it kind where, with few exceptions, the player has to prove the coach wrong to get playing time; and 2) the I-believe-in-you kind who conveys confidence in the player even if he thinks otherwise, figuring in the long run that positive reinforcement conquers negative and getting everyone to buy in is better than putting some guys in the doghouse for whatever and challenging them to play their way out.

It seems to me that we've seen enough of Hopkins to believe that he'll be the second kind.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Personally I don't know anything. I do know that several well respected posters on this board who are right about a lot of things recruiting and otherwise have said there is little chance we will rip up the contract. There are even posts on it in other threads on this board that have been made recently. Not sure why people keep coming back to ripping up the contract, because I trust the posters that say it won't happen. That's not the point of this thread. The point of this thread is how does Mike Hopkins succeed here.

True. I would bet they aren't entirely sure. Wildhack and the Chancellor aren't stupid. Well, many chancellors are, frankly. This is a mammoth decision and I would be shocked if they didn't do their due diligence to explore every angle/option to come to the best decision however there is no decision yet, obviously. IF they decide on Hopkins then I'm all in and hope it works out. Personally, he's not my top choice but that doesn't matter. Nobody knows who it will be as of this moment.

 

[baggerbob]

Indiana had a HOF coach for 30 years, and since then they have had a few good years, but are not elite anymore. The possibility is there, that we may end up in the same place after JB is gone. Kansas, Kentucky, and North Carolina, because of location, and fans have been able to go from one coach to another, and have sustained success. Syracuse is not in that kind of situation.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Greg Gard was a great replacement for Bo Ryan.

 

[pfister1]

Reasonable points. Re: the money -- you do realize that JB is low paid not because Syracuse can't or won't pay more, but rather because he's never sought to maximize his compensation? JB is a rarity in that regard, in that he gets a couple million in salary, a bit more from Nike, and he's cool with that given the cost of living in CNY. That is a choice that he's actively made, in an era of escalating salaries for top coaches. His compensation is in no way reflective of what his value on the open market would be. Nor is it indicative of what SU capacity to pay him is.

I do understand why JB is below market. That doesn't mean that Syracuse is willing to pay market and by the way most (not all) of the coaches setting the market are at larger public institutions. But that said, do you believe that SU would pay a new basketball hire, regardless of pedigree, more than they are paying Babers? I don't know the answer to that question, but I kind of suspect the answer would be that they wouldn't.

Thankfully, ACC revenues will allow us to do that. A program the caliber of ours, with the ability to win the attendance title any given year, with the associated revenues that come from that, shouldn't be afraid to invest in the basketball program, or be capped by some artificial constraint on spending what should be a reasonable amount of money for a head coach. I don't get what "circumstances" you are referring to that would prevent us from doing so.

We do have additional revenues from the ACC, but it is not an endless source of revenue dedicated to the basketball program. How much of it is allocated to football vs. basketball? The circumstances I was referring to are (i) I don't believe SU would allocate that kind of money to its head basketball coach and (ii) because the question seemed to start from the perspective of a real life scenario, today's circumstances would include coming to terms with Hopkins who is contractually entitled to the position which would likely mean paying Hop the salary he would have gotten as the head coach had SU honored its agreement with him. Meaning for some time period you are incurring double the cost for your head coach. Which only serves to strengthen my belief in (i).

 

[SBU72]

Everything RF stated is spot on so I wont rehash what he said. Just open up the check book for Jay Wright.

Never happen.

 

[Madbiker]

Open the check book for Billy Donovan.
Pitino Jr. is being groomed for the Louisville job.
Donovan would be ideal.
Remember this saying from Bill Belichick. He didn't want to replace Bill Parcells.
"You don't want to be the guy that replaces THE GUY. You want to be the guy that replaces the guy after THE GUY"
This logic applies across sports all legends.

I'd love Donovan here. But people aren't being realistic about the $$$. Donovan was making 3x Boeheim's salary at Florida. $3.5M per. Even if he left the NBA he isn't going to a college job for less than that $3.5M and he'd have his pick of situations. SU is never paying anything close to that. Never will.

 

[RF2044]

I do understand why JB is below market. That doesn't mean that Syracuse is willing to pay market and by the way most (not all) of the coaches setting the market are at larger public institutions. But that said, do you believe that SU would pay a new basketball hire, regardless of pedigree, more than they are paying Babers? I don't know the answer to that question, but I kind of suspect the answer would be that they wouldn't.




We do have additional revenues from the ACC, but it is not an endless source of revenue dedicated to the basketball program. How much of it is allocated to football vs. basketball? The circumstances I was referring to are (i) I don't believe SU would allocate that kind of money to its head basketball coach and (ii) because the question seemed to start from the perspective of a real life scenario, today's circumstances would include coming to terms with Hopkins who is contractually entitled to the position which would likely mean paying Hop the salary he would have gotten as the head coach had SU honored its agreement with him. Meaning for some time period you are incurring double the cost for your head coach. Which only serves to strengthen my belief in (i).

Pfister, if your contention is that Syracuse can't afford paying a coach $4-$5M in salary because they haven't paid JB that, we're going to have to agree to disagree. I get that they wouldn't pay a "new" coach like Hopkins that salary, but if they pursued an established coach? They'd have to find the right spot along the salary curve to incentivize said candidate to come here, factoring in a number of other benefits that might drive the cost of that salary down. They might not HAVE to pay $4-$5M for all candidates, but they'd have to come up from what they're paying Boeheim for sure if they want to convince a top candidate to consider the job.

They are paying Babers what they are paying him because he was coming from a non-P5 school, making a fraction of what we increased his salary to. You'd better bet your bottom dollar that if Babers has success, that they're going to need to come up with a LOT more in salary than what they are currently paying him in order to retain him. His market value will be performance based, and a function of the relative success [or lack thereof] he has.

And sorry--I completely disagree that a program of our caliber should actively seek to pay less for a head coach, just to keep costs down. That is a losing strategy, IMO, and will get us what we pay for.

I do not contend that Hopkins will be passed over, nor even that he should. But if he is, and has to be "bought out," then I don't believe that it would be for the full cost of what was promised. Contracts are made to be broken, he hasn't been officially hired, and he has a new AD boss that didn't negotiate this deal. They'd settleit wouldn't be an exorbitantly high amount to walk away, if that's what the university chose to do -- certainly not the prohibitive factor that you're making it out to be. So they would only be paying the new coach's salary, plus a one time lump sum that would then go away.

Bottom line for me: if we want to have a big boy program, then we need to be prepared to spend like a big boy. That doesn't mean that we have to go out and spend an outlandish amount like $8M trying to entice Rick Pitino [just for example] to come here. But $4M for the right candidate? Absolutely, within reason money should be no object. And that is what being in the ACC enables us to do, unlike when we were making a fraction of what we are now from a shared revenue standpoint in the old Big East conference.

Also keep in mind that the salary we offer is partially a function of regional economic considerations, as well. In other words, not all salaries are created equal, even if they are the same amount. A $2M salary in CNY stretches a helluva lot farther than it would in NYC. The Chancellor and AD aren't stupid, and would surely use that as a negotiation bargaining chip with whomever they pursue, if they choose to conduct a broarder search.

 

[rrlbees]

This. Especially some verbal agreement based on 'loyalty.' Unless the OP is some sort of shaman or buddies with both Wildhack/Sveryrud; it is just as preposterous to assume it is a done deal.

I'm not friends with either. But I do know Severud made it public last summer that Hop was the next coach.

 

[RF2044]

I'd love Donovan here. But people aren't being realistic about the $$$. Donovan was making 3x Boeheim's salary at Florida. $3.5M per. Even if he left the NBA he isn't going to a college job for less than that $3.5M and he'd have his pick of situations. SU is never paying anything close to that. Never will.

What's the cost of living in Florida compared to CNY?

I have no idea if Donovan is / would be a realistic candidate, but let's consider this example at face value. Donovan has already made a ton of money, at both the collegiate level and the NBA. If his goal is to maximize every dollar he could get, then there are places he could go that might enable that, but some of it might be offset by cost of living considerations. For example, let's just say he would command a higher salary at UCLA compared to say, Kansas. In real dollars, he might be better off going to Kansas for a bit less money, because his money would stretch farther compared to the exorbitant cost of living in Los Angeles.

If--and I acknowledge that this is a hypothetical IF--Syracuse chooses to actively look outside of the program for the next head coach, then they have a couple of option:

• Hire a coach from a lower level
• Hire an AC and pay him less since he's unproven
• Pay market value for an established coach

If they want to go with the strategy from the third bullet, then they are going to have to pay some money. BUT it doesn't necessarily have to be the maximum salary--there are a lot of intrinsic benefits to coaching at SU that can also be used to entice prospective candidates, namely:

• The prestige of being a program in the top 5 for wins
• Our program is a high major "brand"
• A newly refurbished Dome [in the near future]
• ACC caliber competition
• Tremendous television exposure
• Dirt cheap cost of living

Based upon all of the above, we don't necessarily have to offer more than anybody else possibly can, just enough to make the total compensation sufficient, along with the intrinsic factors.

 

[Madbiker]

1. Implement his systems on both sides of the ball, modernizing our defensive concepts and bringing some versatility back to our offensive approach. Don't be afraid to break with the old way of doing things, even though many of those things brought us a lot of success
2. Hire an ace, bulldog recruiter [our Book Richardson] to be his second in command
3. Make point guard skill the focus of recruiting, not just length / height for the zone; don't sacrifice skill for size at this crucial position
4. Make the transition from being the players' friend / confidant to being their head coach

Why do some think Hop will change the style of play? I'm not saying he will or won't. I don't know. But I do know his entire basketball experience has been SU and under Boeheim. It's what he knows. It's ingrained in how he was raised and taught. Seems unlikely to me that he's going to make any substantial changes in philosophy.

 

[Cusefan0307]

What's the cost of living in Florida compared to CNY?

I have no idea if Donovan is / would be a realistic candidate, but let's consider this example at face value. Donovan has already made a ton of money, at both the collegiate level and the NBA. If his goal is to maximize every dollar he could get, then there are places he could go that might enable that, but some of it might be offset by cost of living considerations. For example, let's just say he would command a higher salary at UCLA compared to say, Kansas. In real dollars, he might be better off going to Kansas for a bit less money, because his money would stretch farther compared to the exorbitant cost of living in Los Angeles.

If--and I acknowledge that this is a hypothetical IF--Syracuse chooses to actively look outside of the program for the next head coach, then they have a couple of option:

• Hire a coach from a lower level
• Hire an AC and pay him less since he's unproven
• Pay market value for an established coach

If they want to go with the strategy from the third bullet, then they are going to have to pay some money. BUT it doesn't necessarily have to be the maximum salary--there are a lot of intrinsic benefits to coaching at SU that can also be used to entice prospective candidates, namely:

• The prestige of being a program in the top 5 for wins
• Our program is a high major "brand"
• A newly refurbished Dome [in the near future]
• ACC caliber competition
• Tremendous television exposure
• Dirt cheap cost of living

Based upon all of the above, we don't necessarily have to offer more than anybody else possibly can, just enough to make the total compensation sufficient, along with the intrinsic factors.

What legit P5 coach would we pay for to come here at market value not including Wright or Donovan because that's not happening?

 

[RF2044]

Why do some think Hop will change the style of play? I'm not saying he will or won't. I don't know. But I do know his entire basketball experience has been SU and under Boeheim. It's what he knows. It's ingrained in how he was raised and taught. Seems unlikely to me that he's going to make any substantial changes in philosophy.

Several differences have been suggested by posters in the know. I trust what they are saying, and wouldn't expect Hopkins to just try to be JB 2.0.

 

[RF2044]

What legit P5 coach would we pay for to come here at market value not including Wright or Donovan because that's not happening?

Wouldn't that depend on the AD and what they'd be looking for in prospective candidates?

I mean, we could compile a list easily, the same way we did when Shafer was fired from the football program, but it doesn't mean that our list would match up with the candidates that the AD would prioritize / seek to pursue, personal relationships that the AD might have, etc.

 

[rrlbees]

Why do some think Hop will change the style of play? I'm not saying he will or won't. I don't know. But I do know his entire basketball experience has been SU and under Boeheim. It's what he knows. It's ingrained in how he was raised and taught. Seems unlikely to me that he's going to make any substantial changes in philosophy.

He told me personally some things he'd do differently. Stay with the zone but mix in m2m. More pressure D. Try to get back to a fast break offense. Etc.

 

[KaiserUEO]

I'm not friends with either. But I do know Severud made it public last summer that Hop was the next coach.

the dreaded Public Vote of Confidence...