Hey Guys, basketball fan from Montana here. I have to admit, while I would love to see us pull of the David vs Goliath, I just don't think it will happen. Here's a few thoughts:
- You guys are known for your solid, long 2/3 zone, and even though we shoot the three well, we don't shoot it consistently well enough to "shoot you out" of your zone.
- The only way we keep the game close is by driving to the bucket, and converting free-throws - Even then, it may not be all that close. We tried to do that against Wisconsin last year, and went stone cold from the outside, and couldn't convert when driving to the bucket - the Big Sky is way more whistle happy down low on any kind of contact, and we got our butts handed to us by expecting contact/whistle, then no whistle.
- We don't really have much of a low post game - we have a junior 6-9 guy who is okay...but not solid, and a 7-0 true freshman, who just doesn't have the weight/body type to compete down low yet.
- I know many are surprised that we are a 13 seed, but I'm not too surprised. The only conference game we lost was to Weber State, who is probably the better all around team in our conference. The NCAA tends to reward the small-midmajors that have "become regulars" in the tourney, as well as "showing well" in the tourney. Had say some other team in the Big Sky won besides us or Weber, they'd probably be looking at a 15/16 seed or even a play in. In 2005 when we beat Nevada, we got a 12 seed - coming off the heels of the previous year being a 15 or 16(?) seed and losing to Washington by 10/12 points, and during the regular season, we beat Colorado State, Stanford (who was #17 at the time), and I think a team somewhere in the #25-30 range...I don't really remember though.
- I believe you guys will pull away and end up winning by 15 or so. That being said, I do expect us to keep it "close" until then, but probably the closest we'll end up being to you through the game is between 5/8 points. I say that because our recent tourney history we've stayed close, with the exception being Wisconsin (who played way better than us, but also got crazy hot from 3 land):
--- 2005: 88-77 loss to Washington
--- 2006: 87-79 WIN vs Nevada, 69-56 loss vs Boston College
--- 2010: 62-57 loss to New Mexico - note that we were down by 17 at the start of the 2nd half
--- 2012: 73-49 loss to Wisconsin
-So, sorry for the long winded post. That's what I've got, and if you have any questions, feel free to ask!
Go Griz!