My Current Take - 12 Teams, 4 Spots

[jncuse]

EDITED with Providence Win over Xavier = 11 Team's , 3 Spots.

To a certain degree I am relying on the matrix, as I have never seen any team miss that has over 95% of the in-side entering Selection Sunday (SMU came very close one year). And I think Alabama locked up their bid with a win today and will move above 95%. Providence is at 97%, but would likely fall below with a loss.

11 teams, 3 Spots
St. Mary's
Louisville
Arizona St
Middle Tennessee St
Baylor
Oklahoma St
Syracuse
Marquette
Mississippi St (if they win today vs Tennessee)
Notre Dame
Nebraska (added just to be careful)

There are 2 bubble busters that can swipe a spot away:
A-10 : It's Rhode Island / St. Bonaventure vs the field.
MWC: Nevada

Also if Georgia wins today and tomorrow, they are a very real contender for an at-large spot.

 

[jncuse]

To me that is a really non-impressive group. Including us. I can't really make the case that we should be one of the 4, but I don't think we can make one for others either.

At this point all those teams are done for the season (except for Miss St and Providence)

It won't be picking out of the hat, and I don't think the committee can necessarily make a wrong call (as long as it's not Marquette or Notre Dame). I know we will scream inconsistency if Syracuse doesn't make it. but remember there are a number of different things they weigh and not everyone can be the same.

We are about the equals to most of the teams and now we are at the hands of committee judgment.

But the committee has a much more difficult job this year than last. Last year by Sunday they only had to legitimately eliminate 2 teams from the discussion. And it was relatively easy -- Illinois St beat nobody, and Syracuse had historically bad road wins (added to # of losses, RPI, NC SOS). We just had the worst of everything last year except for wins so we were knocked out.

 

[Marty McFly]

committee chair with Andy Katz said they were having very informative and long discussions about ND, Utah, and Oklahoma State... FWIW.

 

[Alsacs]

I would knock out Nebraska, Middle Tennessee, and Mississippi State.

I would put Providence and Arizona State in.

By your analysis and I trust it.
2 bids for
Baylor
St. Mary’s
Louisville
Oklahoma State
Syracuse
Notre Dame
Marquette

 

[Alsacs]

Are NC State and Florida State locks?

 

[NineOneSeven]

I think they go Providence, St Marys, Arizona State, and Ok State.

 

[jncuse]

Are NC State and Florida State locks?

To keep the list "small" I am using the 95% test on the matrix, as those teams always get in the past. But it's an assumption that may not hold this year.

 

[JeremyCuse]

To me that is a really non-impressive group. Including us. I can't really make the case that we should be one of the 4, but I don't think we can make one for others either.

At this point all those teams are done for the season (except for Miss St and Providence)

It won't be picking out of the hat, and I don't think the committee can necessarily make a wrong call (as long as it's not Marquette or Notre Dame). I know we will scream inconsistency if Syracuse doesn't make it. but remember there are a number of different things they weigh and not everyone can be the same.

We are about the equals to most of the teams and now we are at the hands of committee judgment.

But the committee has a much more difficult job this year than last. Last year by Sunday they only had to legitimately eliminate 2 teams from the discussion. And it was relatively easy -- Illinois St beat nobody, and Syracuse had historically bad road wins (added to # of losses, RPI, NC SOS). We just had the worst of everything last year except for wins so we were knocked out.

Your doing yeomans work Jncuse, the board definitely appreciates it. I think your pretty much spot on and unfortunately had SU just won that ND game I think were in, such a devestating loss that I think anyone who follows this program closely knew just knew would haunt us. At this point I am under the impression were 100 % not going to get in. MTSU and Alabama outcomes definitely hurt but honestly based on our history with the committe I have zero faith we are getting in even if those games had gone our way. Besides 2016 when SU is in doubt it gets left out. I wouldn't be shocked if we weren't even listed as on of the first 4 out Sunday after the bracket is announced.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Are NC State and Florida State locks?

NC State is a lock. Wins over UNC and Duke are gold to the Committe unless your Syracuse in 2017 of course

 

[Orangezoo]

I have to wonder then if SOS becomes a factor given the lack of separation. Who went out and challenged themselves vs who got fat during the holidays. This is where I could see us having a feather in our cap. Not saying that makes or breaks but could certainly provide separation. Also, besides recency bias, I am still lost how Louisville is even on this list let alone a risk to jump us. It is a major head scratcher.

 

[rrlbees]

To a certain degree I am relying on the matrix, as I have never seen any team miss that has over 95% of the in-side entering Selection Sunday (SMU came very close one year). And I think Alabama locked up their bid with a win today and will move above 95%. Providence is at 97%, but would likely fall below with a loss.

12 teams, 4 Spots
Providence (if they lose today)
St. Mary's
Louisville
Arizona St
Middle Tennessee St
Baylor
Oklahoma St
Syracuse
Marquette
Mississippi St (if they win today vs Tennessee)
Notre Dame
Nebraska (added just to be careful)

There are 2 bubble busters that can swipe a spot away:
A-10 : It's Rhode Island / St. Bonaventure vs the field.
MWC: Nevada

Also if Georgia wins today and tomorrow, they are a very real contender for an at-large spot.

Not a team on that list with a better resume than SU. Comparable? Yep, several of them. But none clearly better.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Great work as always jncuse. I’m still sticking to my guns with ND/SU/UL all out.

Ok St is the issue of low RPI (does it really matter that much) VS their really good wins.

Alabama is definitely locked in. No need for a play in game, IMO. I’m excited since I want to keep watching Sexton ball. Been following him all year.

I think Tennessee still is in. I’ll throw in Providence, St Mary’s, and Okie St.

 

[cuseincincy]

I have to wonder then if SOS becomes a factor given the lack of separation. Who went out and challenged themselves vs who got fat during the holidays. This is where I could see us having a feather in our cap. Not saying that makes or breaks but could certainly provide separation. Also, besides recency bias, I am still lost how Louisville is even on this list let alone a risk to jump us. It is a major head scratcher.

The problem with this is I think they pay more attention to non-conference SOS than overall SOS. Not saying its right but it seems what they do. Just like they don't give near as much credit for top 10 home wins as they do road wins. I'm not expecting to get in but it appears we have as good a shot as anyone else.

 

[raf4488]

Great work as always jncuse. I’m still sticking to my guns with ND/SU/UL all out.

Ok St is the issue of low RPI (does it really matter that much) VS their really good wins.

Alabama is definitely locked in. No need for a play in game, IMO. I’m excited since I want to keep watching s e xton ball. Been following him all year.

I think Tennessee still is in. I’ll throw in Providence, St Mary’s, and Okie St.

Ok St. sounds a lot like us last year. Really good wins, but also bad losses and poor computer metrics.

 

[Alsacs]

Ok St. sounds a lot like us last year. Really good wins, but also bad losses and poor computer metrics.

They are in.
They beat Florida State in Miami.
Kansas at Kansas.

They are frauds and will be 1 and done but they are getting in.

I think the Big XII is overrated and they just beat each other and because they have good computer numbers they are all high.

 

[upperdeck]

has any league done a better job of getting a team in than the SEC.. every year some team that has no reason to get in runs the table it seems.

 

[Madbiker]

I think they go Providence, St Marys, Arizona State, and Ok State.

St. Mary's has 1 win against likely teams in the field (Gonzaga). SU has 6. No way they should get in. They played no games vs RPI top 25. They played only 3 games all season vs RPI top 50 (2-1) and just 7 vs RPI top 100 (4-3). I just don't see a case for them.

 

[jncuse]

I would knock out Nebraska, Middle Tennessee, and Mississippi State.

I would put Providence and Arizona State in.

By your analysis and I trust it.
2 bids for
Baylor
St. Mary’s
Louisville
Oklahoma State
Syracuse
Notre Dame
Marquette

Agreed on Nebraska and probably Providence as well. Not sure on the others, but as I said I have no idea who to pick in this group.

 

[jncuse]

Georgia losing to Kentucky thankfully. I know they were off everybody's radar, but if they had beat Kentucky, they would have had 6 quad 1 wins, and had a record of 10-12 (q1+q2). Equating q1+q2 with the old top 50, top 100 that is really good. They had also beat St. Mary's and won at Marquette, and had a fake elite win against Tennessee.

I think the SEC this year may be as fake as the Pac12 in 2016. Not to say they are bad teams. But they all boosted each other.

 

[NineOneSeven]

St. Mary's has 1 win against likely teams in the field (Gonzaga). SU has 6. No way they should get in. They played no games vs RPI top 25. They played only 3 games all season vs RPI top 50 (2-1) and just 7 vs RPI top 100 (4-3). I just don't see a case for them.

"Should"

 

[UnknownOrange]

ND has ties to 3 committee members.

Just in case you're a connect-the-dots guy

 

[jncuse]

St. Mary's has 1 win against likely teams in the field (Gonzaga). SU has 6. No way they should get in. They played no games vs RPI top 25. They played only 3 games all season vs RPI top 50 (2-1) and just 7 vs RPI top 100 (4-3). I just don't see a case for them.

Their case is they did relatively well in those games and had limited opportunities. I don't think it is necessarily fair when we eliminate smaller schools on metrics intended to evaluate big conference schools.

Those type of teams do deserve the benefit of the doubt, with one caveat ... they need to try stretch themselves, at least reasonably, out of conference. And St. Mary's did not do that.

Their 291 OOC SOS is probably the reason they are on the list.

 

[SoBeCuse]

ND has ties to 3 committee members.

Just in case you're a connect-the-dots guy

Didn’t know that. Would be freaking criminal for them to get in. I think they could be the least deserving of ALL those teams. That Colson argument is bunk since they lost to IU and Ball St. with him.

 

[Marty McFly]

Didn’t know that. Would be freaking criminal for them to get in. I think they could be the least deserving of ALL those teams. That Colson argument is bunk since they lost to IU and Ball St. with him.

It would but the committee chair seemed like they were being actively discussed today, after watching that Andy Katz clip

 

[20Plus]

Agreed on Nebraska and probably Providence as well. Not sure on the others, but as I said I have no idea who to pick in this group.

Disagree strongly on Providence only team with quad four losses seriously