My Current Take - 12 Teams, 4 Spots

[jncuse]

Ok St. sounds a lot like us last year. Really good wins, but also bad losses and poor computer metrics.

Except they had have 6 road or neutral wins. We only had 2 (amazing that we were able to overcome that to even get close to the bubble line last year)

This year all the bubble teams by my quick scan, have at least 6 road/neutral wins with only 1 exception.
Baylor - 4

Good day Baylor -- you are going to the NIT.

 

[jncuse]

Disagree strongly on Providence only team with quad four losses seriously

Didn't see they now were up to 2 quad 4 losses... that UMass game straddles the line between q3/q4.

So yes, I agree with your disagreement.

 

[jncuse]

committee chair with Andy Katz said they were having very informative and long discussions about ND, Utah, and Oklahoma State... FWIW.

Utah? Interesting. I suppose their resume is not that far off the rest of the teams, but I am surprised they are getting serious discussion.

They must have a really vocal member of the committee pushing for them. I sometimes feel on these tight discussions you are only as strong as your strongest supporter.

 

[Sherman20]

To me that is a really non-impressive group. Including us. I can't really make the case that we should be one of the 4, but I don't think we can make one for others either.

At this point all those teams are done for the season (except for Miss St and Providence)

It won't be picking out of the hat, and I don't think the committee can necessarily make a wrong call (as long as it's not Marquette or Notre Dame). I know we will scream inconsistency if Syracuse doesn't make it. but remember there are a number of different things they weigh and not everyone can be the same.

We are about the equals to most of the teams and now we are at the hands of committee judgment.

But the committee has a much more difficult job this year than last. Last year by Sunday they only had to legitimately eliminate 2 teams from the discussion. And it was relatively easy -- Illinois St beat nobody, and Syracuse had historically bad road wins (added to # of losses, RPI, NC SOS). We just had the worst of everything last year except for wins so we were knocked out.

Agree with your last paragraph.

 

[Sherman20]

ASU completely collapsed since early January. They don’t deserve to be in, other than their two excellent wins in december. Not enough anymore.

 

[jncuse]

We are the team with nothing overly good, but nothing overly bad either. There are a few others like that. But let's hope they knock the teams out with the biggest warts.

Baylor - Road Wins
Arizona St - Even though it is not supposed to matter, they are really struggling.
Middle Tennessee - Mid major bias.
Oklahoma St - RPI
Louisville - Do a favour to the NCAA.

 

[Chris02M]

my bubble came down to 3 spots for 8 teams as baylor was the first most easily eliminated from consideration

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Didn’t know that. Would be freaking criminal for them to get in. I think they could be the least deserving of ALL those teams. That Colson argument is bunk since they lost to IU and Ball St. with him.

If they get in the time would be right for me to remind everyone that Brian Kelly killed a kid.

 

[Briancuse]

From those 12 I would go cuse nd marq and asu.

 

[CaptainJ]

If they get in the time would be right for me to remind everyone that Brian Kelly killed a kid.

I need the OIG decoder ring. I thought SoBe was using an idiom or some non literal expression when he wrote "would be freaking criminal"? I didnt know a literal killing was involved.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I need the OIG decoder ring. I thought SoBe was using an idiom or some non literal expression when he wrote "would be freaking criminal"? I didnt know a literal killing was involved.

Notre Dame's Brian Kelly Addresses Student's Death

 

[orangenirvana]

To a certain degree I am relying on the matrix, as I have never seen any team miss that has over 95% of the in-side entering Selection Sunday (SMU came very close one year). And I think Alabama locked up their bid with a win today and will move above 95%. Providence is at 97%, but would likely fall below with a loss.

12 teams, 4 Spots
Providence (if they lose today)
St. Mary's
Louisville
Arizona St
Middle Tennessee St
Baylor
Oklahoma St
Syracuse
Marquette
Mississippi St (if they win today vs Tennessee)
Notre Dame
Nebraska (added just to be careful)

There are 2 bubble busters that can swipe a spot away:
A-10 : It's Rhode Island / St. Bonaventure vs the field.
MWC: Nevada

Also if Georgia wins today and tomorrow, they are a very real contender for an at-large spot.

UCLA?

 

[CaptainJ]

Notre Dame's Brian Kelly Addresses Student's Death

Wow...that was a indeed a sad story. It makes the the HW injury discussion earlier pale in comparison(although no obvious Act Of G*d(tm) caused the latter). Thanks for sharing that.

 

[jdubs30]

We are the team with nothing overly good, but nothing overly bad either. There are a few others like that. But let's hope they knock the teams out with the biggest warts.

Baylor - Road Wins
Arizona St - Even though it is not supposed to matter, they are really struggling.
Middle Tennessee - Mid major bias.
Oklahoma St - RPI
Louisville - Do a favour to the NCAA.

Underrated point about Louisville. The NCAA has no choice but to deal with MSU (for which I think they will get a very tough road). But now every time Louisville has a game, the "Scandal" will be front and center and discussed. Louisville gave the NCAA an easy out by not playing their way in with a convincing resume. it is really hard to imagine the committee going out of their way to do Louisville any favors - especially with the potential that MSU makes a run. You can just picture the articles on CNN and Yahoo if Louisville AND MSU win 2 or 3 games and keep advancing.

No Bueno for the NCAA. No Bueno for Louisville's chances.

 

[jdubs30]

UCLA?

UCLA is probably in after last night.

 

[orangenirvana]

UCLA is probably in after last night.

With just three Quad 3 wins. Hmm.

 

[jncuse]

UCLA?

Possibly not safe. I made a simple assumption based on Matrix History to keep the list manageable, as no team has missed at that level. This could be the year.

To tired to think for myself as well.

 

[Orangezoo]

Providence... *Pop*

 

[Chris02M]

With just three Quad 3 wins. Hmm.

5 quad 2 wins also and played a good enough non conference schedule to squeeze in

 

[sugrad68]

The team I think does NOT deserve a bid is Oklahoma. They haven't won a road game this calendar year. 3-9 in their last 12 games. 18-13 overall. They haven't had a win against an RPI 1-50 team in about 6 weeks, with 5 losses during that time. Oklahoma State is 19-13 with a RPI of 83. Very soft OOC teams. Alabama is in now. Arizona State lost 5 of their last 6 and lost in the first round of their tournament to Colorado. Notre Dame got very lucky when Virginia Tech decided to stop playing with about 10 minutes to go in the game. Colson throws in a banked 3-pointer with ND trailing and the shot clock running out. This was after barely beating Pitt, Pitt's closest loss in the league.

Joe Lunardi is but one prognosticator on the scene. It will be a crap shoot for all the teams on the bubble. I could make a case for all teams on the bubble and against all teams on the bubble. Syracuse is 20-13 and plays in the ACC which has more good teams than any other conference. On the other hand SU played one of the weaker ACC conference schedules with 2 games against Pitt, BC, and Wake. And UVA. SU has beaten Iona, Miami, Virginia Tech, and Clemson which will be in the tournament, and several others like Louisville, Texas Southern, and Toledo which still may make the tournament. But SU lost to GT, WF, and BC, but all on the road. SU played other good teams ridiculously close before losing -- St. Bonaventure, ND, FSU, GT, WF on the road, NC State, and the 1st game against UNC.

So to me it all depends on which factors the selection committee focuses the most. Will the committee look at Colson missing so many games for ND and let their 20-14 record slide? Will the committee look at Big 12 teams with bias since it is the highest ranked conference? There are going to be a lot of unhappy teams on Sunday.

The loss by Middle Tennessee certainly did not help SU's chances.

 

[Dinkyspond]

I am sick and tired of these threads and the speculation that goes on and on for days. This is the third year in a row of this nonsense. We used to worry about seedings and where we would be sent. I appreciate all the work by everybody who does this analyses but I can't take anymore. Wake me up on Sunday night at approximately 6:20pm. I hope I don't have to watch the NIT selection show again.

 

[jdubs30]

EDITED with Providence Win over Xavier = 11 Team's , 3 Spots.

To a certain degree I am relying on the matrix, as I have never seen any team miss that has over 95% of the in-side entering Selection Sunday (SMU came very close one year). And I think Alabama locked up their bid with a win today and will move above 95%. Providence is at 97%, but would likely fall below with a loss.

11 teams, 3 Spots
St. Mary's
Louisville
Arizona St
Middle Tennessee St
Baylor
Oklahoma St
Syracuse
Marquette
Mississippi St (if they win today vs Tennessee)
Notre Dame
Nebraska (added just to be careful)

There are 2 bubble busters that can swipe a spot away:
A-10 : It's Rhode Island / St. Bonaventure vs the field.
MWC: Nevada

Also if Georgia wins today and tomorrow, they are a very real contender for an at-large spot.

Good job taking away PC so quick.

I think Mississippi State, MTSU, St. Mary's and Nebraska are non-threats

That makes 7 teams for 3 spots.

Nevada is getting spanked - that could mean 7 teams for 2 spots.

Davidson is as hot as anyone, but they'll have to beat both URI and SBU. Also need WSU/Houston/Cincy to win the AAC.

 

[jdubs30]

The team I think does NOT deserve a bid is Oklahoma. They haven't won a road game this calendar year. This doesn't matter. 3-9 in their last 12 games. This doesn't matter 18-13 overall. They haven't had a win against an RPI 1-50 team in about 6 weeks, with 5 losses during that time. This doesn't matter. Oklahoma State is 19-13 with a RPI of 83. Very soft OOC teams. Alabama is in now. Arizona State lost 5 of their last 6 and lost in the first round of their tournament to Colorado. This doesn't matter. Notre Dame got very lucky when Virginia Tech decided to stop playing with about 10 minutes to go in the game. This doesn't matter. Colson throws in a banked 3-pointer with ND trailing and the shot clock running out. This doesn't matter. This was after barely beating Pitt, Pitt's closest loss in the league. This doesn't matter.

Joe Lunardi is but one prognosticator on the scene. It will be a crap shoot for all the teams on the bubble. I could make a case for all teams on the bubble and against all teams on the bubble. Syracuse is 20-13 and plays in the ACC which has more good teams than any other conference. On the other hand SU played one of the weaker ACC conference schedules with 2 games against Pitt, BC, and Wake. And UVA. SU has beaten Iona, Miami, Virginia Tech, and Clemson which will be in the tournament, and several others like Louisville, Texas Southern, and Toledo which still may make the tournament. But SU lost to GT, WF, and BC, but all on the road. SU played other good teams ridiculously close before losing -- St. Bonaventure, ND, FSU, GT, WF on the road, NC State, and the 1st game against UNC.

So to me it all depends on which factors the selection committee focuses the most. Will the committee look at Colson missing so many games for ND and let their 20-14 record slide? Will the committee look at Big 12 teams with bias since it is the highest ranked conference? There are going to be a lot of unhappy teams on Sunday.

The loss by Middle Tennessee certainly did not help SU's chances.

 

[Nicknack]

I am sick and tired of these threads and the speculation that goes on and on for days. This is the third year in a row of this nonsense. We used to worry about seedings and where we would be sent. I appreciate all the work by everybody who does this analyses but I can't take anymore. Wake me up on Sunday night at approximately 6:20pm. I hope I don't have to watch the NIT selection show again.

None of us like being a bubble team, obviously. However, we are what we are right now. Perhaps you should pick another sport for now if this is too sickening to you.

 

[20Plus]

I am sick and tired of these threads and the speculation that goes on and on for days. This is the third year in a row of this nonsense. We used to worry about seedings and where we would be sent. I appreciate all the work by everybody who does this analyses but I can't take anymore. Wake me up on Sunday night at approximately 6:20pm. I hope I don't have to watch the NIT selection show again.

Without forcing you to read them so why are you complaining about people doing it