My Current Take - 12 Teams, 4 Spots

[Orangezoo]

Something else to take into consideration that I've been looking at as well. With all the other non RPI metrics out there, just a quick scan shows that aside from those teams in far weaker conferences, the biggest factor in rankings seems to be total point differential. We sat around + 100 for the year, where teams like UL or even Penn St , Oklahoma etc sit higher than us on BPI, Sagarin, Ken Pom with far bigger yearly point differentials ranging from 150 plus to over 200. If those are used with any conviction for bubble analysis it is a shame. I won't have the time but a sound analysis finding the most impactful variable should find point difference carrying a far too heavy weight. Which is straight out of the old BCS playbook.

I'm sure none of them intended this but when you try to build a model with smaller components of the same larger data set, it is often going to reflect the more basic, blended result. Better efficiency is subset of how much better than your opponents you are on the scoreboard which is not an indicator of overall quality. It's who, not how.

Also funny is that despite the rankings due to point differential, the quality win/Loss records don't change.

 

[CorduroyG]

6 of our 8 tier one losses are to UVA, UNC, Duke, Kansas
Those are 1-2 seeds.
That is unprecedented in the nation.

Our nonconference SOS is 15.
The committee is going to see this stuff.

The numbers are better for us this year than last year.

this is what gives me hope. just looking at the computer #s it looks like we should get in.

 

[Consigliere]

The good is that we any further bubble buster is less than likely.

Here is the 9 for 2

St. Mary's (in per Matrix)
Louisville (in per Matrix)
Arizona St
Baylor
Middle Tennessee St
Syracuse
Oklahoma St
Marquette
Notre Dame

This is not going to be an easy job for the committee.

I think that with as tight as the bubble is this year there needs to be real discussion about expanding the field again. I believe there are now over 350 schools playing Division I basketball and while none of the potential bubble teams is a serious national championship contender, it's not hard to visualize a scenario based on matchups where several, if not most, could conceivable advance to the Sweet 16. Seems like a no-brainer to make all of the 12 and 16 seeds subject to play-in games and go to 72. If Dayton remains the first site it would mean adding afternoon doubleheaders on Tuesday and Wednesday. Not sure what the magic is with Dayton, but why not have four regional play-in sites to cut down on travel and to have all eight games completed on Tuesday?

 

[Trueblue25]

Trying to save you from your impending misery

You realize you’re in a forum full of SU fans? We live off misery. Its our life blood.

 

[sugrad68]

It really doesn't matter to me if you think my comments do not matter. Just like with others, my comments are my opinion on the teams that are projected to make the final 68. I'm always interested in reading opinions of others on the subject.

 

[AZOrange]

I applaud jncuse efforts here but we are dead as the dead guy that couldn’t get any rebounds.

 

[sdcuseguy]

I applaud jncuse efforts here but we are dead as the dead guy that couldn’t get any rebounds.

If it is true we are one of first few teams out it really is a miracle we were that close. I can't stand Lunardi but I agree with him that our team isn't that good, specifically on offense. Too bad though as we can beat most teams not use to our style of defense and I think that the reality is we would be a better addition to the tournament than several teams ahead of us..

 

[IthacaMatt]

All it takes is 1 recruiting class. Next year could be that class.

We still need to add a big man, and we need Sidibe to be healthy next year.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

"I won't have the time but a sound analysis finding the most impactful variable should find point difference carrying a far too heavy weight."

I'm not sure about rankings, but point differential is historically a strong predictor of team strength. If you doubt this, go check betting lines and you'll see the lines much more closely reflect point differential than win / loss record.