NBA 2018-2019

[Knicks411]

Kind of a weak sauce statistical model. At least one team, and often one or two more, wins more than 60. Look at how bunched up those records are. This model skews to the mean.

Yeah but that's how every model is gonna end up, the mean is quite the bitch. Here's a fun one though, the 1976-77 season, no one won more than 50 games or fewer than 30. How about that for parity!

Here is my take on the Siakam for Russ/PG thing; I don't buy it was a realistic offer for a second.

 

[Day2]

Here is my take on the Siakam for Russ/PG thing; I don't buy it was a realistic offer for a second.

How does that work exactly? Presti really made the offer and Ujiri really turned him down.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Yeah but that's how every model is gonna end up, the mean is quite the bitch. Here's a fun one though, the 1976-77 season, no one won more than 50 games or fewer than 30. How about that for parity!

Here is my take on the Siakam for Russ/PG thing; I don't buy it was a realistic offer for a second.

Not every model has to go that way.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Deadspin | Kawhi Leonard Is The NBA's Executive Of The Year

Deadspin | Kawhi Leonard Is The NBA's Executive Of The Year

deadspin.com

Maybe it’s obvious at this point, but it needs to be said: the Lakers were his third choice. We live in a world where the Nets and Clips are winning bidding wars against the Knicks and Lakers, respectively.

Broken ownership in both locations. Relentless TMZ-type nonsense surrounds these franchises. It's like the Lakers are owned by Paris Hilton, and the Knicks are owned by Joey Buttafuco.

 

[IthacaMatt]

The Clippers don’t really have any issues depth wise.

They could use a center. But they are set at guard and forward.

 

[Day2]

They could use a center. But they are set at guard and forward.

I agree and they might be able to bring back Green for the MLE.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Clippers just made one of the worst trades ever. Of course I have never been a huge PG 13 fan. We will see how he does with Kawhi. The west is just sick. I'm still feeling pretty good about the Jazz but lots of teams have improved.

Well, how would you feel about it if they won a title or two? Still the worst trade ever?

The people in Toronto are pretty happy about that "bird in the hand" right now, even if Kawhi did leave. They will have that championship forever.

 

[cuseattle]

The West has 11 quality teams and the East has 4.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Well, how would you feel about it if they won a title or two? Still the worst trade ever?

The people in Toronto are pretty happy about that "bird in the hand" right now, even if Kawhi did leave. They will have that championship forever.

We'll see. Ball don't lie. What will be interesting is do teams go full throttle to get a top seed or do they rest guys to be more fresh for the playoffs.

 

[Newhouser]

LeBron looks bad here in terms of influence. If you don't share his agent he can't recruit. Also wonder how George feels about being Kawhi's second choice, and how great would it have been if KD said yes and went to the Clippers?

 

[Alsacs]

It’s not tampering because Leonard was doing the “tampering” and he was a FA.

Tampering FAQ: How will NBA respond to Pacers' charges against Lakers?

The Indiana Pacers charged the Los Angeles Lakers with tampering over Paul George, but what will the NBA do about it? How has the NBA handled tampering recently?

www.espn.com

Under NBA tampering rules, no player, coach or management person may entice or induce a player under contract with another team to play for another team.

Kawhi was a FA. George was under OKC contract. It’s not a big deal because the players run the league but their was obvious tampering to get to George to LA.

 

[Alsacs]

LeBron looks bad here in terms of influence. If you don't share his agent he can't recruit. Also wonder how George feels about being Kawhi's second choice, and how great would it have been if KD said yes and went to the Clippers?

LeBron has always been passive aggressive. His influence is real with anyone not on his level but don’t forget he went to Wade’s team as a follower not as the leader.
That was part of the reason he went back to Cleveland. Everyone has said for years Klutch does LeBron’s work for him just like any successful person has underlings do stuff above them.

George has wanted to play in LA for years.
He resigned in OKC because he didn’t like the Lakers management’s vision and he liked playing with Westbrook that first year.

He won’t be upset at all that Leonard went to KD first. KD was a FA so it makes sense. George is happy he is in LA now. He just had shoulder surgery and likely won’t be ready for the start of the season.

 

[rrlbees]

Tampering FAQ: How will NBA respond to Pacers' charges against Lakers?

The Indiana Pacers charged the Los Angeles Lakers with tampering over Paul George, but what will the NBA do about it? How has the NBA handled tampering recently?

www.espn.com

Under NBA tampering rules, no player, coach or management person may entice or induce a player under contract with another team to play for another team.

Kawhi was a FA. George was under OKC contract. It’s not a big deal because the players run the league but their was obvious tampering to get to George to LA.

The article has nothing to do with this situation. The FA approaches and was enticing the other player. George wasn’t doing the tampering.

 

[Alsacs]

The article has nothing to do with this situation. The FA approaches and was enticing the other player. George wasn’t doing the tampering.

George wasn’t tampering it was Kawhi.

The league isn’t going to do anything about that but the rules state nobody can entice a player under contract with another team to play with them.
The NBA doesn’t care about tampering we knew a lot of contracts before FA signed last week. Boston obviously tampered with Kemba, Brooklyn obviously tampered with Kyrie, Butler with Miami etc.

 

[jordville]

 

[Knicks411]

How does that work exactly? Presti really made the offer and Ujiri really turned him down.

Well that couldn't have been a legit offer as reported; it doesn't work with the cap. So there would've had to have been a lot more salaries thrown in to match, it would've been really complicated.

Woj kinda reported as such

Had Presti been able to strike a deal for George with the Raptors -- and Leonard was willing to stay -- George was believed to be willing to join the Raptors too, sources said. Presti had been willing to pursue a package of Russell Westbrookand George to the Raptors, but no talks ever gained traction, sources said. Ujiri and Raptors GM Bobby Webster had no ability, nor inclination, to counter the Clippers' offer with a multitude of first-round picks into the middle of next decade, league sources said.

Who reported Toronto turned it down?

Not every model has to go that way.

I guess you could do something where you'd randomly give a few teams their 75% projection and some others their 25% or whatever?

 

[OrangeDW]

Kawhi = “The guy?”

 

[Melancer46]

Well that couldn't have been a legit offer as reported; it doesn't work with the cap. So there would've had to have been a lot more salaries thrown in to match, it would've been really complicated.

Woj kinda reported as such




Who reported Toronto turned it down?



I guess you could do something where you'd randomly give a few teams their 75% projection and some others their 25% or whatever?

Yeah it just logically doesn’t seem likely that Toronto would have been the one turning it down considering OKC ended up with a far stronger offer from the Clippers.

Possible OKC offered something to Toronto, got rejected, and then lucked out with a much better offer coming their way but seems unlikely.

Going to be very interesting to see where Toronto goes now. This was always the interesting part about the Kawhi trade. I always viewed getting away from DeRozan to be a good thing anyways due to the cap flexibility that they have now but they’re in danger of REALLY bottoming out if things don’t break their way the next two years.

I don’t see Giannis as a realistic option in 2021. I’m not naive enough to think he’ll never leave Milwaukee despite what he’s said publicly, but I think he’ll accept the supermax when offered before potentially leaving when it comes time to give him another supermax.

I’m curious to see how Toronto plays it in 2020. Just sign a bunch of one year deals and likely drop out of the playoffs to maintain cap flexibility for 2021? Idk.

 

[chugg21]

Yeah it just logically doesn’t seem likely that Toronto would have been the one turning it down considering OKC ended up with a far stronger offer from the Clippers.

Possible OKC offered something to Toronto, got rejected, and then lucked out with a much better offer coming their way but seems unlikely.

Going to be very interesting to see where Toronto goes now. This was always the interesting part about the Kawhi trade. I always viewed getting away from DeRozan to be a good thing anyways due to the cap flexibility that they have now but they’re in danger of REALLY bottoming out if things don’t break their way the next two years.

I don’t see Giannis as a realistic option in 2021. I’m not naive enough to think he’ll never leave Milwaukee despite what he’s said publicly, but I think he’ll accept the supermax when offered before potentially leaving when it comes time to give him another supermax.

I’m curious to see how Toronto plays it in 2020. Just sign a bunch of one year deals and likely drop out of the playoffs to maintain cap flexibility for 2021? Idk.

I think they need to bail out now and get whatever they can for their expirings to accelerate the process but that would be unheard of off of a championship without Wayne Huizenga making the order.

 

[Day2]

Well that couldn't have been a legit offer as reported; it doesn't work with the cap. So there would've had to have been a lot more salaries thrown in to match, it would've been really complicated.

Woj kinda reported as such




Who reported Toronto turned it down?



I guess you could do something where you'd randomly give a few teams their 75% projection and some others their 25% or whatever?

According to Ujiri’s own spin, he rejected the offer because he still wasn’t confident Leonard would re-sign.

The deal probably would have included Lowry. Gasol or Ibaka plus another player or two would have worked as well. Or a third team gets involved and takes Westbrook.

 

[Alsacs]

By the way does Vogel get to the SuperBowl with Boogie and Rondo now on the Lakers?
That is a serious tough job for the guy.

 

[Day2]

Alsacs Read the first three graphs:

At Summer League, remade Lakers and Clippers size each other up

For the second straight night, James and Anthony Davis sat in the same spot near one of the stanchions.

www.ocregister.com

 

[Knicks411]

Yeah it just logically doesn’t seem likely that Toronto would have been the one turning it down considering OKC ended up with a far stronger offer from the Clippers.

Possible OKC offered something to Toronto, got rejected, and then lucked out with a much better offer coming their way but seems unlikely.

Going to be very interesting to see where Toronto goes now. This was always the interesting part about the Kawhi trade. I always viewed getting away from DeRozan to be a good thing anyways due to the cap flexibility that they have now but they’re in danger of REALLY bottoming out if things don’t break their way the next two years.

I don’t see Giannis as a realistic option in 2021. I’m not naive enough to think he’ll never leave Milwaukee despite what he’s said publicly, but I think he’ll accept the supermax when offered before potentially leaving when it comes time to give him another supermax.

I’m curious to see how Toronto plays it in 2020. Just sign a bunch of one year deals and likely drop out of the playoffs to maintain cap flexibility for 2021? Idk.

Yeah the Toronto situation is real interesting. I guess for this year they just kinda run it back with Lowry/Gasol/Ibaka all expiring? The East looks pretty weak, that's still likely a playoff team, maybe even a top 4 team.

But then you get to next year; the FA group is so bad, (they could bring DeRozan back!!) so I do think they do something like what the Knicks did, just sign a bunch of guys to 1+1 deals and keep yourself open for 21.

Things will get reallllly interesting if Giannis turns down the extension next summer. I'm not saying he will. I'm just saying, if he does, hoo boy. I will again have something to get my hopes up for.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Well that couldn't have been a legit offer as reported; it doesn't work with the cap. So there would've had to have been a lot more salaries thrown in to match, it would've been really complicated.

Woj kinda reported as such




Who reported Toronto turned it down?



I guess you could do something where you'd randomly give a few teams their 75% projection and some others their 25% or whatever?

There are more sophisticated ways of doing it. Unfortunately, I haven't really done anything that meaty with statistical models in like 8+ years, so I don't exactly remember what. I want to say though that you could look at historical spread of all records and "fit" your projections to match up with that.

Maybe that one did, but just eyeballing I doubt it because the highs aren't high enough and the lows aren't low enough.

 

[Day2]

Yeah it just logically doesn’t seem likely that Toronto would have been the one turning it down considering OKC ended up with a far stronger offer from the Clippers.

Possible OKC offered something to Toronto, got rejected, and then lucked out with a much better offer coming their way but seems unlikely.

The Clippers were panicked. They didn’t want to blow it.