NBA Asst GM: The value of staying in school another year

[IthacaMatt]

just like you don't automatically get better staying in school

Yes, but college offers something the pros don't - game time opportunity on a big stage. Even the D League (or Triple A baseball) doesn't offer the media scrutiny of NCAA basketball and March Madness. That is a great crucible for improving as a player. Good players become great by playing in big games, and coming through at "winning time".

 

[IthacaMatt]

Did anyone else assume that Troy Weaver was the unnamed asst GM? Maybe JB asked him to help convince Grant to stick around with these "quotes"?

It was Mike Waters. I don't know that JB would have "suggested" to Mike that he speak to Troy. Mike didn't need JB's suggestion to make the call.

 

[timkay99]

I would agree with the athleticism comment if he also had can't miss size for his position, but he doesn't. MCW had his athleticism matched with uncommon size for a PG. Grant is a very athletic and grossly undersized power forward or he is an athletic, but not nearly as remarkably so, small forward that is lacking much more than shooting for that position. At this point, he's lacking, or at the very least hasn't yet demonstrated, all of the perimeter skills needed to be a 3 in the NBA. He has shown no ability to handle the ball, he hasn't shown passing ability, and, as we've both mentioned, he hasn't shown the ability to shoot. If he was lacking only one of those, he'd certainly be in better shape, but he's lacking all three.

We only need to look at Donte Greene to see how far off draft projections can be. Chad Ford had him at 15 as of May 20 in 2008, and he went 28. Would Grant drop 13 spots? Maybe not, but he wouldn't have to to drop out of the first round since he's projected lower than Greene was.

He isn't a lock for the first round, and, therefore, isn't assured a guaranteed contract. Why throw away the college experience, with an education and the opportunity to work with a HOF coach that has coached the best players in the world at the Olympics, so that you may or may not get as much of an opportunity to develop your game with a coach nobody has ever heard of that may or may not be good at developing talent. If he was a lottery pick, then make the jump, but he's not.

I agree he is the classic tweener. But, the NBA has proven they will pay for athleticism above any other tool (which is one reason its hard for me to watch). Every year, there seem to be guys taken mid to late 1st where the commentary is, he is an explosive athlete who just need to learn a jumper. I think Jerami is prolly hearing that range and that is why it is taking him awhile to make a decision (b/c it is a tough decision in that range with his tools).

A lot of this depends on what Jerami is hearing. If he is hearing he is a first round guy, I think looking at making the jump has to be considered.

But remember, that no name coach is part of an organization indebted to developing you. Even Donte, for as much as we talk about him struggling in the NBA, got 4 years in before they parted ways. Level of competition will be higher in the D-League as well.

BTW, for as much as we talk about the D League in regards to Grant, I really don't think he ends up there. He can help a lot of teams as a rebounder and weakside shot blocker. Think he, like MCW, may benefit from the wide open NBA as well.

 

[timkay99]

D League guys make like $25-30,000 a year, unless they are on an NBA contract. If players were paid $100K, it would be a very good league, and not so many guys would be looking for jobs in 2nd rate foreign leagues like The Phillippenes or New Zealand.

Very true. NBA focused way too much on developing abroad and forgot to secure the salaries for their domestic minor league.

 

[moqui]

D League guys make like $25-30,000 a year, unless they are on an NBA contract. If players were paid $100K, it would be a very good league, and not so many guys would be looking for jobs in 2nd rate foreign leagues like The Phillippenes or New Zealand.

FWIW, Filipino ball is very entertaining

 

[teamco]

I think the Grant family has a little bit of insight into what going to the NBA now vs later means.
I say pops and uncle will counsel Grant to work on his game next year at school.

 

[sufandu]

I agree he is the classic tweener. But, the NBA has proven they will pay for athleticism above any other tool (which is one reason its hard for me to watch). Every year, there seem to be guys taken mid to late 1st where the commentary is, he is an explosive athlete who just need to learn a jumper. I think Jerami is prolly hearing that range and that is why it is taking him awhile to make a decision (b/c it is a tough decision in that range with his tools).

A lot of this depends on what Jerami is hearing. If he is hearing he is a first round guy, I think looking at making the jump has to be considered.

But remember, that no name coach is part of an organization indebted to developing you. Even Donte, for as much as we talk about him struggling in the NBA, got 4 years in before they parted ways. Level of competition will be higher in the D-League as well.

BTW, for as much as we talk about the D League in regards to Grant, I really don't think he ends up there. He can help a lot of teams as a rebounder and weakside shot blocker. Think he, like MCW, may benefit from the wide open NBA as well.

I agree he needs to base things on what he's hearing, I don't think that was ever the debate. From what has been reported, he's hearing late first round, which is too close to take a chance on because of how easily it can become early second round.

I don't agree he would help a team right away. I don't think he would see much time on the court, he's too offensively challenged. When Warrick was in the league (a similar player athletically and in body type), he could at least keep defenders honest with a midrange jump shot to go with a very good post game. Grant has neither. A team isn't going to put him on the floor for a fast break here and there. His other skills aren't good enough to make up for his lack of offensive skills at this point.

People talk about jumping to the NBA with it's guarantees versus the uncertainty of staying in college. What about the guarantees of being a starter, getting 35+ minutes per game, being a focal point of the offense, and playing for a coach he knows is respected in the basketball community, if he stays in college? This is in contrast with getting drafted late in the first round not knowing if he'll get any playing time in the NBA or go to the D-league and play for a coach he knows nothing about.

The assistant GM in the article knows more than either one of us about how all of this works, and thinks it wold be better for him to stay.

 

[Czar]

McAdoo is selling low, IMO. Yes, he would have been higher a year ago, but now he's at his low point. Carolina was disappointing this season and could be much better next year. He could work his way back into the top 10 if he bounced back.

McAdoo could drop 30/10 next year and still not make the top 10.

 

[timkay99]

People talk about jumping to the NBA with it's guarantees versus the uncertainty of staying in college. What about the guarantees of being a starter, getting 35+ minutes per game, being a focal point of the offense, and playing for a coach he knows is respected in the basketball community, if he stays in college? This is in contrast with getting drafted late in the first round not knowing if he'll get any playing time in the NBA or go to the D-league and play for a coach he knows nothing about.

The assistant GM in the article knows more than either one of us about how all of this works, and thinks it wold be better for him to stay.

Per the first paragraph, if he gets 35+ minutes a game in college and truly needs to play in the D League, he is probably getting 35+ minutes a game against better competition.

Not to put this too bluntly, but there is always a reason for an Assistant GM or someone to put this stuff out without their name linked to it. Maybe he is a A GM of a team picking in the mid 1st and doesn't want to have to make a decision on him.

But remember, it only takes one team to fall in love with him and pop him in the 1st.

 

[MonsterGame]

I think Grant has more room for improvement than C.J., don't you think?

To be Fair (pun slightly intended), one would have to compare CJ and Grant both at the end of their respective sophomore years, in terms of room for improvement. When one does that, I think the answer is, it's very difficult to say which one has larger upside. Here's the problem, how good a basketball player one becomes is not solely determined by one's athleticism. Sure, elite athleticism is real eye candy and gives one a potential higher ceiling, but basketball IQ and mental toughness/desire are just as important and difficult to gauge. Jason Kidd was never an elite athlete, but his BB IQ and mental toughness/desire are off the charts. Hence, great player. Hard to say after CJ's softomore year if CJ's BB IQ and mental toughness/desire had reached their ceilings. Sure, now it's much easier to say CJ has topped out, not then though.

Bottom line is, I do not begrudge a kid for taking the money if it's being waved at them, even if the kid ends up out of the league in 2 or 3 years. (My opinion then is they just didn't have what it takes to stick and almost certainly never would have even if they had stayed in college more years. And if they hadn't taken the money then, maybe they would have lost the chance or lost having as much of it as they could have if jumping ship earlier.) Every kid has to decide what is best for them and I'm fine with that. Hell, a couple million isn't going to last forever but it's a way better start then most college grads or drop outs are going to get in their first couple years post-college. So if they choose to take it, I wish them well.

Probably most on the board posting about it being best to stay in school do not have the kid's best interest at heart but rather their own desire to see SU have a better team next year. So be it. I'd rather see the kid do what is best for them and just wish them well. If they do well it reflects well on the SU program. In 15 years, when Donte Greene has long since hung them up, when asked if he made the right decision about leaving school after his freshman year he'll probably say, "I did what I did and I'm fine with that." So be it.

One of the interesting cases when considering this staying or going thing is Roy Hibbert. He ended up staying 4 years at Georgetown and now he's probably a top 5 center in the NBA, certainly no worse then a top 10 center. One could say, it was because he stayed 4 years in school and honed his skills that he became successful at the next level. Problem is, he was drafted only at #17 and really wasn't that good his first two or three years in the NBA. Somehow, he managed to actually improve not only his skills, but changed his entire body type while sitting on an NBA roster. Who would say that Hibbert had elite athleticism when he left college? (Come on, he was pear-shaped back then.) Apparently Hibbert has what it takes to get better physical and stick in the NBA. (Quite frankly, when he was drafted I thought he would be out of the NBA in two to three years. So much for thinking.) That said, who knows, maybe the 4 years of college did help Hibbert become mentally more mature and prepared him to take the next step when he finally did get to the NBA. Impossible to know what the real truth is.

 

[sufandu]

Per the first paragraph, if he gets 35+ minutes a game in college and truly needs to play in the D League, he is probably getting 35+ minutes a game against better competition.

Not to put this too bluntly, but there is always a reason for an Assistant GM or someone to put this stuff out without their name linked to it. Maybe he is a A GM of a team picking in the mid 1st and doesn't want to have to make a decision on him.

But remember, it only takes one team to fall in love with him and pop him in the 1st.

Do you think that's his goal, to play in the D-league? Nobody enters the draft with the goal of playing in the d-league. The assistant GM and the other scouts in the article can't put their name to any comments about him because he hasn't declared, so it's against the rules. That is stated in the article. You're correct in that it only takes one team to like him, but is that the kind of assurance you want of a guaranteed contract? That's the type of hopeful comment someone might say about CJ, not a guy that has options. It sounds as if you're arguing that he should leave because he has a good chance to go in the first round. I'm saying he should only leave if he is guaranteed to go in the first round, and that's not the case.

 

[timkay99]

Do you think that's his goal, to play in the D-league? Nobody enters the draft with the goal of playing in the d-league. The assistant GM and the other scouts in the article can't put their name to any comments about him because he hasn't declared, so it's against the rules. That is stated in the article. You're correct in that it only takes one team to like him, but is that the kind of assurance you want of a guaranteed contract? That's the type of hopeful comment someone might say about CJ, not a guy that has options. It sounds as if you're arguing that he should leave because he has a good chance to go in the first round. I'm saying he should only leave if he is guaranteed to go in the first round, and that's not the case.

I am saying the D League can develop him just as much if not more then college.

I am saying that if he has a chance to go in the first round (and I don't see a scenario he doesn't), it is extremely difficult to walk away from.

I hope he comes back. Cuse needs him to win a ship. But, coming back MAY not be in his best interest. Just like declaring MAY not be in his best interest.

 

[sufandu]

I am saying the D League can develop him just as much if not more then college.

I am saying that if he has a chance to go in the first round (and I don't see a scenario he doesn't), it is extremely difficult to walk away from.

I hope he comes back. Cuse needs him to win a ship. But, coming back MAY not be in his best interest. Just like declaring MAY not be in his best interest.

The first two points are where we differ.

I don't know that the d-league can develop him any better. I would put it at a maybe. You mentioned he would see better competition in the d-league. That's not a given. I'd say he'd face more consistent competition but not always better. The best teams in college that he plays against will have future lottery pick players that will play in the NBA, some starting, from day one. The d-league will have none of those. Who in the d-league is as good as Jabari Parker?

I don't think you leave for a CHANCE at the first round. You leave if the first round is a CERTAINTY. His projections, by NBA personnel people, don't make it a certainty. I'm not referring to syracusefan.com experts, I'm referring to people paid by NBA franchises to assess these players. They think he'd be better off waiting, at this point.

 

[timkay99]

The first two points are where we differ.

I don't know that the d-league can develop him any better. I would put it at a maybe. You mentioned he would see better competition in the d-league. That's not a given. I'd say he'd face more consistent competition but not always better. The best teams in college that he plays against will have future lottery pick players that will play in the NBA, some starting, from day one. The d-league will have none of those. Who in the d-league is as good as Jabari Parker?

I don't think you leave for a CHANCE at the first round. You leave if the first round is a CERTAINTY. His projections, by NBA personnel people, don't make it a certainty. I'm not referring to syracusefan.com experts, I'm referring to people paid by NBA franchises to assess these players. They think he'd be better off waiting, at this point.

Do you think 5-10 games of playing against a single NBA player at his position is better for his development then playing every day against NBA caliber athletes or someone with at least one NBA level tool at his position?

The other key thing for basketball development in the D League? No classes. Devote all time to development.

20-25 is a projected first rounder isn't it? I haven't seen a NBA guy saying he is a second rounder, so I am confused by that statement at the end. If Grant reinjures his back playing for Cuse and not for their NBA squad, they just saved a lot of money.

Any NBA prospect with a question, NBA teams would prefer he stays in school so they can evaluate that question further. Doesn't always work out for the kid.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I am saying the D League can develop him just as much if not more then college.

I am saying that if he has a chance to go in the first round (and I don't see a scenario he doesn't), it is extremely difficult to walk away from.

I hope he comes back. Cuse needs him to win a ship. But, coming back MAY not be in his best interest. Just like declaring MAY not be in his best interest.

I agree 90% with this. The only thing that the D League can't reproduce is the spotlight that shines on elite college players. Being on TV and being able to produce in the face of media scrutiny is what separates some players from the rest. You don't get that in the D League. Nobody cares if the Maine Red Claws beat the Iowa Buzzcutts.

 

[timkay99]

I agree 90% with this. The only thing that the D League can't reproduce is the spotlight that shines on elite college players. Being on TV and being able to produce in the face of media scrutiny is what separates some players from the rest. You don't get that in the D League. Nobody cares if the Maine Red Claws beat the Iowa Buzzcutts.

Oh, I agree 100% with this. But, I don't think that really impacts the player from a development perspective.

Grant has played in the spotlight for a year plus in that category.

It definitely makes his basketball life more fun playing in front of the Cuse faithful

 

[sufandu]

Do you think 5-10 games of playing against a single NBA player at his position is better for his development then playing every day against NBA caliber athletes or someone with at least one NBA level tool at his position?

The other key thing for basketball development in the D League? No classes. Devote all time to development.

20-25 is a projected first rounder isn't it? I haven't seen a NBA guy saying he is a second rounder, so I am confused by that statement at the end. If Grant reinjures his back playing for Cuse and not for their NBA squad, they just saved a lot of money.

Any NBA prospect with a question, NBA teams would prefer he stays in school so they can evaluate that question further. Doesn't always work out for the kid.

1. I'm saying I don't know that there is much of a difference. This is in contrast to you speaking as if it a certainty the d-league is better. The fact is there is not data that strongly supports one over the other.

2. Yes, this is a valid point. I haven't ever denied this.

3. I don't know why this is so hard for you to understand. 20-25 is a projected 1st rounder. It does not guarantee it. Some players drop. Some move up. Donte Greene dropped 13 spots. No body knows whether or not this would happen to Grant, including you and me. However, if it did, the idea of him developing in the d-league with a guaranteed million in his pocket is gone. If Grant reinjures his back as a second round draft pick, he's worse off than he would be in college. He hurts it as a second round pick, he's cut with no contract. He hurts it in college, he gets treatment and can still play next year. While he rehabs, he works toward a degree.

The scouts in the article didn't specifically say he's a second rounder. I'm saying that projections aren't certainties. A projection of 20-25 is too close to the second round for a guy that already has a good situation to take a chance that he could drop. That's my opinion. You keep saying you don't think he would drop. Did you think Greene would drop? I keep mentioning Greene, but surely he's not the only guy that didn't get drafted where he thought he would. What if there are a number of european prospects the draft guys are unaware of? What if he aggravates his back in pre-draft workouts (not unlikely given how recent his injury was)?

There is no more uncertainty with him coming back than there is with him leaving. I'll say it again, if he was projected in the lottery, I'd say go. Even if he dropped, he'd still be in the first round. He isn't projected there, so I wouldn't want to take that gamble.

 

[timkay99]

1. I'm saying I don't know that there is much of a difference. This is in contrast to you speaking as if it a certainty the d-league is better. The fact is there is not data that strongly supports one over the other.

2. Yes, this is a valid point. I haven't ever denied this.

3. I don't know why this is so hard for you to understand. 20-25 is a projected 1st rounder. It does not guarantee it. Some players drop. Some move up. Donte Greene dropped 13 spots. No body knows whether or not this would happen to Grant, including you and me. However, if it did, the idea of him developing in the d-league with a guaranteed million in his pocket is gone. If Grant reinjures his back as a second round draft pick, he's worse off than he would be in college. He hurts it as a second round pick, he's cut with no contract. He hurts it in college, he gets treatment and can still play next year. While he rehabs, he works toward a degree.

The scouts in the article didn't specifically say he's a second rounder. I'm saying that projections aren't certainties. A projection of 20-25 is too close to the second round for a guy that already has a good situation to take a chance that he could drop. That's my opinion. You keep saying you don't think he would drop. Did you think Greene would drop? I keep mentioning Greene, but surely he's not the only guy that didn't get drafted where he thought he would. What if there are a number of european prospects the draft guys are unaware of? What if he aggravates his back in pre-draft workouts (not unlikely given how recent his injury was)?

There is no more uncertainty with him coming back than there is with him leaving. I'll say it again, if he was projected in the lottery, I'd say go. Even if he dropped, he'd still be in the first round. He isn't projected there, so I wouldn't want to take that gamble.

Here is some D-League info on alumni (Terrence Jones is prolly best comp of those):

http://www.nba.com/dleague/tracker/

D-League has seen a drastic increase from what it used to be (and the D-League I think you are thinking of)

You keep bringing up Donte Greene. He was a first rounder and got guaranteed money. Chad Ford isn't a NBA scout, so a better comparison would be to where NBA Assistant GM's had him, since that is the projection you are working on for Grant. I would say they saw Greene more in the 20-25 range like Grant.

There are no European draft prospects that NBA teams don't know about at this stage (though surely there are some we don't know about).

If he hurts his back in draft workouts, that hurts his stock. But, if he aggravates in draft workouts or aggravates it during the college season, not sure there is much of a difference. Plus, the player has a lot of control over workouts and when they compete.

If Grant is truly hearing 20-25, he has a hard decision. I am not saying he should choose one way or the other or what I would do in the situation. I am merely trying to get you to see that the NBDL is much improved and isn't the death knell it used to be.

 

[Melancer46]

There is NO WAY that Grant is not still a first round pick next year. Did Smart, the PG from Oklahoma State drop out of the first round this year, in your opinion? A year can't go much worse than it did for him, and he's still a lottery pick. Maybe not #5 this year like he was projected last year, but he won't be on the board by the end of the lottery. I would still clearly take him over Ennis, for instance, and almost everyone else at that position.

Smart was likely going to be the #2 pick and is now likely a 6-10 pick. And there's literally no comparison between Grant and Smart lol. Smart could have been suspended the entire year and he'd still have been drafted high because of what he did as a freshman. Grant hasn't proven himself nearly as much as Smart has. Grant is being drafted almost purely on potential, so if he comes back another year and doesn't show that he's tapped into that potential much, teams will start to question if he ever will and he will slide in the draft. If he falls even 8 picks like Smart might, that could be enough to take him out of the 1st round.

 

[sufandu]

Here is some D-League info on alumni (Terrence Jones is prolly best comp of those):

http://www.nba.com/dleague/tracker/

D-League has seen a drastic increase from what it used to be (and the D-League I think you are thinking of)

You keep bringing up Donte Greene. He was a first rounder and got guaranteed money. Chad Ford isn't a NBA scout, so a better comparison would be to where NBA Assistant GM's had him, since that is the projection you are working on for Grant. I would say they saw Greene more in the 20-25 range like Grant.

There are no European draft prospects that NBA teams don't know about at this stage (though surely there are some we don't know about).

If he hurts his back in draft workouts, that hurts his stock. But, if he aggravates in draft workouts or aggravates it during the college season, not sure there is much of a difference. Plus, the player has a lot of control over workouts and when they compete.

If Grant is truly hearing 20-25, he has a hard decision. I am not saying he should choose one way or the other or what I would do in the situation. I am merely trying to get you to see that the NBDL is much improved and isn't the death knell it used to be.

What are you basing your opinion for the bolded text on? Anything other than your opinion? Even though Chad Ford isn't a scout, I would guess he bases his predictions on what he hears from his contacts within the NBA. That's more than you or I have.

The difference between hurting his back in draft workouts and hurting it in college is that he still has all of his options if he's in college. If he hurts it during draft workouts and drops, he no longer has the option to return to college. Having control over his workouts has no control over whether or not he hurts his back, so I'm not sure what you're getting at with that comment. From what I've read in the past, the workout schedule for anyone that's not a lock to be at the top of the first round can be pretty grueling. That wouldn't be good for someone with an ailing back. If his back condition isn't major, he could put it behind him with a good rehab/strengthening program over the course of the next year. That would be difficult to do between now and the draft.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Has CJ Fair improved his draft stock by staying in school?

There are no guarantees about whether staying will help one or not. None. Period. None. Plenty of examples of guys who've lost money by staying.

Is it possible it could help and/or lengthen Grant's NBA career? It's possible. That's all I got out of what that GM assistant said, it's possible it could help him. It's also possible it could hurt him. Course, they didn't ask the GM that question.

So what in all of this is guaranteed? The money one can get from the NBA right now is, in fact, guaranteed, if one knows they will be a 1st round pick. Hmmm.

This is the logic that drives me batty. My thinking is this: if CJ was good enough to be an NBA player then he would have shown it this year. If one extra year of college ball is enough to lower your draft stock substantialy, then you probably aren't an NBA caliber talent. I mean if you lowered your draft stock in that extra year, what would you have done in the NBA during that year? You woul be just one year closer to being unemployed. If you get drafted you likely aren't going to play and you will be out of the league in 2 years or so.

So it all gets down to what the goals are. Is the goal just the thrill of hearing your name called at the draft and devil may care if I fail in the NBA or is the goal to have a career in the NBA? You get a year maybe two to prove yourself in that league, then you go on the trash pile and younger players are brought in to replace you. Forget playing skills, what about maturity and the understanding of work ethic, leadership, team concept, etc that people learn in college? Most of us here went to college, don't tell me you learned how to give a presentation to the board of directors of your company in college. You learned how to be prepared, what it took to tly have your bases covered, how to handle defeat, success, struggle, etc. Maybe a guy with some skills is good enough to get drafted but hasn't matured enough yet to keep himself in the league or to do the necessary things to improve enough to get more minutes, etc.

 

[timkay99]

What are you basing your opinion for the bolded text on? Anything other than your opinion? Even though Chad Ford isn't a scout, I would guess he bases his predictions on what he hears from his contacts within the NBA. That's more than you or I have.

The difference between hurting his back in draft workouts and hurting it in college is that he still has all of his options if he's still in college. If he hurts it during draft workouts and drops, he no longer has the option to return to college. Having control over his workouts has no control over whether or not he hurts his back, so I'm not sure what you're getting at with that comment. From what I've read in the past, the workout schedule for anyone that's not a lock to be at the top of the first round can be pretty grueling. That wouldn't be good for someone with an ailing back. If his back condition isn't major, he could put it behind him with a good rehab/strengthening program over the course of the next year. That would be difficult to do between now and the draft.

To use Ford for Greene (I can't find any scouting talk about him but couldn't look to hard):

http://www.sactownroyalty.com/2008/6/25/558688/donte-greene-has-one-of-t

"[Donte] Greene has one of the widest ranges of any player in the draft. Some scouts see the second coming of Rashard Lewis. Others see an inexperienced, one-dimensional jump shooter. I hear the Kings are high on him and the Rockets are trying to move up to get him."

Grant can very easily hurt the back in workouts and be in a predicament. But, I am saying he is a 2nd rounder anyways if he hurts his back again in the view of teams, whether in college or pros (and if a team really loves him in the 1st, then the back issue prolly isn't a big deal when it occurs). Player will control his workouts (him and his agent). If his back isn't feeling up to snuff, he can very easily back out of a workout and use another thing as an excuse (which players have tended to do).

 

[sufandu]

To use Ford for Greene (I can't find any scouting talk about him but couldn't look to hard):

http://www.sactownroyalty.com/2008/6/25/558688/donte-greene-has-one-of-t

"[Donte] Greene has one of the widest ranges of any player in the draft. Some scouts see the second coming of Rashard Lewis. Others see an inexperienced, one-dimensional jump shooter. I hear the Kings are high on him and the Rockets are trying to move up to get him."

Grant can very easily hurt the back in workouts and be in a predicament. But, I am saying he is a 2nd rounder anyways if he hurts his back again in the view of teams, whether in college or pros (and if a team really loves him in the 1st, then the back issue prolly isn't a big deal when it occurs). Player will control his workouts (him and his agent). If his back isn't feeling up to snuff, he can very easily back out of a workout and use another thing as an excuse (which players have tended to do).

I don't think a potential late first rounder has as much wiggle room to move or cancel workouts the way a lottery pick can. Do it too much and teams take notice.

Overall theme. He is not a can't miss first rounder. He just isn't. If you are not guaranteed the to be in the first round you shouldn't go. It's that simple. What makes it easier for him, is that his family is already rich, so money isn't as much of a consideration.

 

[timkay99]

I don't think a potential late first rounder has as much wiggle room to move or cancel workouts the way a lottery pick can. Do it too much and teams take notice.

Overall theme. He is not a can't miss first rounder. He just isn't. If you are not guaranteed the to be in the first round you shouldn't go. It's that simple. What makes it easier for him, is that his family is already rich, so money isn't as much of a consideration.

IMO, he is a can't miss first rounder (just will be in the back of the round). If he declares, I don't see him falling to the 2nd.

But, hopefully he comes back.

 

[SaltLakeOrange]

This is the logic that drives me batty. My thinking is this: if CJ was good enough to be an NBA player then he would have shown it this year. If one extra year of college ball is enough to lower your draft stock substantialy, then you probably aren't an NBA caliber talent. I mean if you lowered your draft stock in that extra year, what would you have done in the NBA during that year? You woul be just one year closer to being unemployed. If you get drafted you likely aren't going to play and you will be out of the league in 2 years or so.

So it all gets down to what the goals are. Is the goal just the thrill of hearing your name called at the draft and devil may care if I fail in the NBA or is the goal to have a career in the NBA? You get a year maybe two to prove yourself in that league, then you go on the trash pile and younger players are brought in to replace you. Forget playing skills, what about maturity and the understanding of work ethic, leadership, team concept, etc that people learn in college? Most of us here went to college, don't tell me you learned how to give a presentation to the board of directors of your company in college. You learned how to be prepared, what it took to tly have your bases covered, how to handle defeat, success, struggle, etc. Maybe a guy with some skills is good enough to get drafted but hasn't matured enough yet to keep himself in the league or to do the necessary things to improve enough to get more minutes, etc.

So so right! Great post! If immediate gratification is your goal, then by all means go for it. But don't be surprised if it doesn't work out as you expected.