NBA draft

[SBU72]

Today on a sports talk show on Rochester radio, the host was trying to make a point how good teams find good players in the draft no matter where they draft. As "proof" he pointed to this years MVP voting showing how the top 10 vote getters were drafted at many different spots. It came out that about only 2 of the 10 were top 3 picks and many were past the 10th spot. He gave each vote getters year of draft, spot in the draft and the # of years of college. What caught my ear was that only 2 players left before 2 years of college. (Labron out of hs and Durrant after freshman year) The rest stayed at least 2 years and a couple 3 and even 1 had 4 (I think) The point here is that it is not necessary to get there real early to succeed.

 

[djcon57]

Today on a sports talk show on Rochester radio, the host was trying to make a point how good teams find good players in the draft no matter where they draft. As "proof" he pointed to this years MVP voting showing how the top 10 vote getters were drafted at many different spots. It came out that about only 2 of the 10 were top 3 picks and many were past the 10th spot. He gave each vote getters year of draft, spot in the draft and the # of years of college. What caught my ear was that only 2 players left before 2 years of college. (Labron out of hs and Durrant after freshman year) The rest stayed at least 2 years and a couple 3 and even 1 had 4 (I think) The point here is that it is not necessary to get there real early to succeed.

Ehhh, you need to dig a little deeper on the 4 year guys. The guys that stayed 4 went to Davidson and Weber State (and Green at MSU as the outlier). Curry and Lillard couldn't go early. Wasnt an option. The rest are 1 and 2s

1) Curry - 4 year player at DAVIDSON
2) Leonard - 2 year player at SD State
3) Lebron - HS
4) Westbrook - 2 year at UCLA
5) Durant - 1 year at Texas
6) Paul - 2 year at WF
7) Green - 4 year at Michigan State
8) Lillard - 4 year at WEBER STATE
9) Harden - 2 year at ASU
10) Lowry - 2 year at Nova

 

[djcon57]

Ehhh, you need to dig a little deeper on the 4 year guys. The guys that stayed 4 went to Davidson and Weber State (and Green at MSU as the outlier). Curry and Lillard couldn't go early. Wasnt an option. The rest are 1 and 2s

1) Curry - 4 year player at DAVIDSON
2) Leonard - 2 year player at SD State
3) Lebron - HS
4) Westbrook - 2 year at UCLA
5) Durant - 1 year at Texas
6) Paul - 2 year at WF
7) Green - 4 year at Michigan State
8) Lillard - 4 year at WEBER STATE
9) Harden - 2 year at ASU
10) Lowry - 2 year at Nova

Also, I only count 3 out of 10 picked after 10 (Leonard, Green, Lowry)

 

[cuseattle]

I think Steph only stayed 3 years at Davidson. Or did he redshirt Freshman year?

 

[MSOrange]

I think Steph only stayed 3 years at Davidson. Or did he redshirt Freshman year?

You are correct sir.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Curry#Junior_season

 

[djcon57]

Oops my bad I thought he had an injury redshirt like Lillard had

 

[cuseattle]

You are correct sir.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Curry#Junior_season

Good read. Va. Tech didn't offer a scholarship, wanted him to walk on.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

Today on a sports talk show on Rochester radio, the host was trying to make a point how good teams find good players in the draft no matter where they draft. As "proof" he pointed to this years MVP voting showing how the top 10 vote getters were drafted at many different spots. It came out that about only 2 of the 10 were top 3 picks and many were past the 10th spot. He gave each vote getters year of draft, spot in the draft and the # of years of college. What caught my ear was that only 2 players left before 2 years of college. (Labron out of hs and Durrant after freshman year) The rest stayed at least 2 years and a couple 3 and even 1 had 4 (I think) The point here is that it is not necessary to get there real early to succeed.

There are very few "sure things" available in the draft. There isn't much evidence any particular teams are good at evaluating draft talent. You're best bet in the draft is to do it a lot. The more picks you make the better chance you have of hitting.

 

[HOFCeluck]

There are very few "sure things" available in the draft. There isn't much evidence any particular teams are good at evaluating draft talent. You're best bet in the draft is to do it a lot. The more picks you make the better chance you have of hitting.

Glavin

 

[NYCorange]

Today on a sports talk show on Rochester radio, the host was trying to make a point how good teams find good players in the draft no matter where they draft. As "proof" he pointed to this years MVP voting showing how the top 10 vote getters were drafted at many different spots. It came out that about only 2 of the 10 were top 3 picks and many were past the 10th spot. He gave each vote getters year of draft, spot in the draft and the # of years of college. What caught my ear was that only 2 players left before 2 years of college. (Labron out of hs and Durrant after freshman year) The rest stayed at least 2 years and a couple 3 and even 1 had 4 (I think) The point here is that it is not necessary to get there real early to succeed.

It's a good point and certainly true, although higher draft picks certainly do better over a full sample size. fivethirtyeight has an article that talks a bit about it. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-is-winning-the-nba-draft-lottery-really-worth/

Regarding when they left, you could just as easily say it the other way. "Only 3 of the ten stayed longer than 2 years."

 

[NYCorange]

Ehhh, you need to dig a little deeper on the 4 year guys. The guys that stayed 4 went to Davidson and Weber State (and Green at MSU as the outlier). Curry and Lillard couldn't go early. Wasnt an option. The rest are 1 and 2s

1) Curry - 4 year player at DAVIDSON
2) Leonard - 2 year player at SD State
3) Lebron - HS
4) Westbrook - 2 year at UCLA
5) Durant - 1 year at Texas
6) Paul - 2 year at WF
7) Green - 4 year at Michigan State
8) Lillard - 4 year at WEBER STATE
9) Harden - 2 year at ASU
10) Lowry - 2 year at Nova

Going to a small school doesn't prevent you from leaving early. Just look at Hasan Whiteside. But it may make it harder.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

There are very few "sure things" available in the draft. There isn't much evidence any particular teams are good at evaluating draft talent. You're best bet in the draft is to do it a lot. The more picks you make the better chance you have of hitting.

The Jazz get a lot of value out of their draft picks.

 

[SBU72]

It's a good point and certainly true, although higher draft picks certainly do better over a full sample size. fivethirtyeight has an article that talks a bit about it. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-is-winning-the-nba-draft-lottery-really-worth/

Regarding when they left, you could just as easily say it the other way. "Only 3 of the ten stayed longer than 2 years."

I realize that the sample size the guy used was small but I thought it was interesting. As for staying 3 years or longer, I think the point is that many people say that for aguy to stay after his freshmen year doesn't help him and I think that that isn't true. And this shows that staying 2 years didn't hurt them.

 

[djcon57]

Going to a small school doesn't prevent you from leaving early. Just look at Hasan Whiteside. But it may make it harder.

True, but my point wasn't that small school guys can't go early. It was that guys from big school can't stay 4 years without a stigma

 

[Knicks411]

I guess it also depends on how you look at it, look at the All NBA teams from last year
first team-
Lebron- HS
Anthony Davis- 1 year
Marc Gasol- Foreign
James Harden- 2 years
Steph Curry- 3 years (i'm an idiot, had 4 here before)

Second team
LaMarcus Aldridge- 2 years
Pau Gasol- Foreign
DeMarcus Cousins- 1 year
Russell Westbrook- 2 years
Chris Paul- 2 years

Third team
Blake Griffin- 2 years
Tim Duncan (!)- 4 years
Deandre Jordan- 1 year
Klay Thompson- 3 years
Kyrie Irving-2 years

 

[Cusefan0307]

Steph played three years at Davidson FWIW.

 

[MikeSU02]

I guess it also depends on how you look at it, look at the All NBA teams from last year
first team-
Lebron- HS
Anthony Davis- 1 year
Marc Gasol- Foreign
James Harden- 2 years
Steph Curry- 3 years (i'm an idiot, had 4 here before)

Second team
LaMarcus Aldridge- 2 years
Pau Gasol- Foreign
DeMarcus Cousins- 1 year
Russell Westbrook- 2 years
Chris Paul- 2 years

Third team
Blake Griffin- 2 years
Tim Duncan (!)- 4 years
Deandre Jordan- 1 year
Klay Thompson- 3 years
Kyrie Irving-2 years

And remember with Duncan, he only started playing bball in 9th grade. Makes his four year stint at WF a little more understandable.

 

[Alsacs]

I guess it also depends on how you look at it, look at the All NBA teams from last year
first team-
Lebron- HS
Anthony Davis- 1 year
Marc Gasol- Foreign
James Harden- 2 years
Steph Curry- 3 years (i'm an idiot, had 4 here before)

Second team
LaMarcus Aldridge- 2 years
Pau Gasol- Foreign
DeMarcus Cousins- 1 year
Russell Westbrook- 2 years
Chris Paul- 2 years

Third team
Blake Griffin- 2 years
Tim Duncan (!)- 4 years
Deandre Jordan- 1 year
Klay Thompson- 3 years
Kyrie Irving-2 years

Whoever Tim Duncan's college coach is has to be the most underachieving college coach of alltime.

How you had one of the top 10 NBA players of all time for 4 years and couldn't even reach 1 Final Four is just terrible.

It is just unfathomable to me to not be able to construct a college roster to fill in behind Duncan when you had him 4 years.

I mean Ewing went to 3 Final Fours, Akeem went to 2 Final Fours.
Shaq was in college for 3 years so maybe his college coach is 2nd behind Duncan's.

 

[Knicks411]

Whoever Tim Duncan's college coach is has to be the most underachieving college coach of alltime.

How you had one of the top 10 NBA players of all time for 4 years and couldn't even reach 1 Final Four is just terrible.

It is just unfathomable to me to not be able to construct a college roster to fill in behind Duncan when you had him 4 years.

I mean Ewing went to 3 Final Fours, Akeem went to 2 Final Fours.
Shaq was in college for 3 years so maybe his college coach is 2nd behind Duncan's.

Dale Brown I think is generally considered a pretty big underachiever? Shaq's freshmen year they had him, Chris Jackson (Mahmoud abdul Rauf), and Stanley Roberts. They couldn't even win their league! they were tied for second, and Kentucky was down because of the sanctions. They lost in the second round to the Ga Tech team with Anderson/Scott/Oliver, which i guess is at least somewhat acceptable, but I don't know how you lead those 3 players to a 5 seed. I also remember looking at Shaq's stats a few months ago, as a soph dude went for 28-15-5(blocks) per game and came back to school for another year!! Madness. LSU never won the SEC regular season once with Shaq, and this was in a period where like I said, UK was generally down a little.

To me, Duncan is a little more understandable. Duncan wasn't really Duncan until later in his Soph year, they did have Randolph Childress who was a senior that year, and they tied for the conference title that year. The ACC was generally loaded in that period, even with Duke down a little (UNC and Maryland were pretty stacked, plus Marbury was at Ga Tech for a year, UVA was pretty good, etc) They were an elite team for Duncan's final 3 years (1, 2, and 3 seed) but the tournament is single elimination and anything can happen.

I'm rambling here, but the Wake Forest supporting cast after Childress graduated was brutal. Tony Rutland, Ricky Peral, Rusty Larue???

 

[Tom K.]

I also remember looking at Shaq's stats a few months ago, as a soph dude went for 28-15-5(blocks) per game and came back to school for another year!! Madness.

I did the exact same thing a few weeks ago and my jaw dropped at his sophomore stats and that he came back.

He averaged 14 pts, 12 rbs, 4 blks his Freshman year. If this were 2016 he'd be leaving and be the overall #1 by far. But Shaq is a generational talent. He'd go #1 in almost any year.

 

[Knicks411]

I did the exact same thing a few weeks ago and my jaw dropped at his sophomore stats and that he came back.

He averaged 14 pts, 12 rbs, 4 blks his Freshman year. If this were 2016 he'd be leaving and be the overall #1 by far.

I know, how ridiculous is that?? Even more so when you remember what a 19 year old Shaq looked like, 7-1 310 or whatever he weighed and he could MOVE.

I vaguely remember (i was like 11 at the time) there being buzz that if Duncan had left after his soph year he would have been the top pick. He had a hell of a year, 17-12-4 blocks and 59% shooting, but that still pales in comparison to what Shaq was doing. It boggles the mind.

Checking the 95 draft, that was the year Joe Smith went first overall. So I am pretty sure that Duncan would have gone ahead of him. And if draft form held, 4 of the top 5 picks would have been ACC guys (add in Sheed and Stackhouse). So yes, the ACC was indeed loaded as I said before. (Cherokee Parks was also a lotto pick)

 

[RF2044]

I know, how ridiculous is that?? Even more so when you remember what a 19 year old Shaq looked like, 7-1 310 or whatever he weighed and he could MOVE.

I vaguely remember (i was like 11 at the time) there being buzz that if Duncan had left after his soph year he would have been the top pick. He had a hell of a year, 17-12-4 blocks and 59% shooting, but that still pales in comparison to what Shaq was doing. It boggles the mind.

Checking the 95 draft, that was the year Joe Smith went first overall. So I am pretty sure that Duncan would have gone ahead of him. And if draft form held, 4 of the top 5 picks would have been ACC guys (add in Sheed and Stackhouse). So yes, the ACC was indeed loaded as I said before. (Cherokee Parks was also a lotto pick)

Re: Duncan--actually, it was the logo himself, Jerry West, who was the Lakers' GM at the time, who caused a buzz Duncan's freshman year when he declared that he was the top prospect in college basketball and that he'd take him #1.

Duncan stayed in college all four years, but obviously West has an eye for talent.

 

[chugg21]

Dale Brown I think is generally considered a pretty big underachiever? Shaq's freshmen year they had him, Chris Jackson (Mahmoud abdul Rauf), and Stanley Roberts. They couldn't even win their league! they were tied for second, and Kentucky was down because of the sanctions. They lost in the second round to the Ga Tech team with Anderson/Scott/Oliver, which i guess is at least somewhat acceptable, but I don't know how you lead those 3 players to a 5 seed. I also remember looking at Shaq's stats a few months ago, as a soph dude went for 28-15-5(blocks) per game and came back to school for another year!! Madness. LSU never won the SEC regular season once with Shaq, and this was in a period where like I said, UK was generally down a little.

To me, Duncan is a little more understandable. Duncan wasn't really Duncan until later in his Soph year, they did have Randolph Childress who was a senior that year, and they tied for the conference title that year. The ACC was generally loaded in that period, even with Duke down a little (UNC and Maryland were pretty stacked, plus Marbury was at Ga Tech for a year, UVA was pretty good, etc) They were an elite team for Duncan's final 3 years (1, 2, and 3 seed) but the tournament is single elimination and anything can happen.

I'm rambling here, but the Wake Forest supporting cast after Childress graduated was brutal. Tony Rutland, Ricky Peral, Rusty Larue???

Didn't they have Loren Woods for a year with Duncan before he went to Arizona I think? That's some serious size & skill in the middle.

 

[Briancuse]

Whoever Tim Duncan's college coach is has to be the most underachieving college coach of alltime.

How you had one of the top 10 NBA players of all time for 4 years and couldn't even reach 1 Final Four is just terrible.

It is just unfathomable to me to not be able to construct a college roster to fill in behind Duncan when you had him 4 years.

I mean Ewing went to 3 Final Fours, Akeem went to 2 Final Fours.
Shaq was in college for 3 years so maybe his college coach is 2nd behind Duncan's.

Dave Odom, ya they did, he had some good players along with Duncan, and I don't believe they even went to a regional final, I think the sweet 16 was the best they did.

 

[Knicks411]

Re: Duncan--actually, it was the logo himself, Jerry West, who was the Lakers' GM at the time, who caused a buzz Duncan's freshman year when he declared that he was the top prospect in college basketball and that he'd take him #1.

Duncan stayed in college all four years, but obviously West has an eye for talent.

There you go, like I said, a little before my time as a hardcore fan. That was the year Glenn Robinson, Kidd, and Grant Hill went 1-2-3. Hell of a top 3 really. Robinson was a good player for a while, Kidd an all timer, and Hill probably would have been the best of all of them if his body cooperated.