NET rankings coming Dec 1

[Sbucketball]

In the past, Rutgers got in at #77 and Virginia got in at #54. To do that though we need to not slip up against these weak teams and have a respectable Q1 slate including another marquee win or two.

 

[CardiacCuse]

currently 9 teams with more losses than the Cuse with a higher kenpom ranking than the orange (#58)
oklahoma, cincinnati, creighton, TCU, washington, VCU, texas, auburn, kentucky

currently 17 (!) 5 loss teams with a higher kenpom than SU (SU currently at 12-5 record)
VA Tech, Santa clara, LSU, UCLA, Wisconsin, Baylor, Indiana, NC state, Iowa, Lousiville, St johns, alabama, kansas, tennessee, florida, kansas, ohio state

i think SU is suffering here bc they dont know how to win by maximum margin and often turn games they could win by 20+ into single digit wins.

but it also shows that if they can string together a couple more wins they will probaby jump considerably in the metric bc there are roughly 26 teams above them with worse or comparable W-L records

personally I think kenpom significantly undervalues W-L record

also, this isnt about the hofstra loss either - hofstra is 13-5 with a higher kenpom than marquette, gtown, fsu, penn state, maryland, ga tech, rutgers, etc - that loss will only get better as the season goes on, imo

on top of all that, not having donnie will undoubtedly help them when it comes to selection sunday

as long as they can continue to play well from here on out

 

[SUalldway]

currently 9 teams with more losses than the Cuse with a higher kenpom ranking than the orange (#58)
oklahoma, cincinnati, creighton, TCU, washington, VCU, texas, auburn, kentucky

currently 17 (!) 5 loss teams with a higher kenpom than SU (SU currently at 12-5 record)
VA Tech, Santa clara, LSU, UCLA, Wisconsin, Baylor, Indiana, NC state, Iowa, Lousiville, St johns, alabama, kansas, tennessee, florida, kansas, ohio state

i think SU is suffering here bc they dont know how to win by maximum margin and often turn games they could win by 20+ into single digit wins.

but it also shows that if they can string together a couple more wins they will probaby jump considerably in the metric bc there are roughly 26 teams above them with worse or comparable W-L records

personally I think kenpom significantly undervalues W-L record

also, this isnt about the hofstra loss either - hofstra is 13-5 with a higher kenpom than marquette, gtown, fsu, penn state, maryland, ga tech, rutgers, etc - that loss will only get better as the season goes on, imo

on top of all that, not having donnie will undoubtedly help them when it comes to selection sunday

as long as they can continue to play well from here on out

Shows the importance of getting wins in the fast upcoming VA Tech & NC state games

 

[Fly Rodder]

Right now, I think 22 wins should get a team into the tourney - maybe on the bubble. For Syracuse, that means winning all of their remaining games at home, one conference tourney game, and at least one of the tougher away games. Getting to 22 will undoubtedly improve the NET rankings. 22 wins combined with a signature road win against a team with a higher seed potential (Duke, Louisville, UVA, NC State, etc.) should put SU in as a solid 8-10 seed. Which is what the floor should be for Syracuse to "be back".

 

[jncuse]

In the past, Rutgers got in at #77 and Virginia got in at #54. To do that though we need to not slip up against these weak teams and have a respectable Q1 slate including another marquee win or two.

They have got in because individual NET is essentially a non factor in tournament selection. It’s based on resume of wins, losses and quality of such. Of course there tends to be a strong correlation between the two because a strong resume usually leads to having a strong NET. But its not 100% correlation either. A better resume of wins and losses will always beat out a better NET.


Feels this board at times gets a little too drawn into individual NET as a basis for selection.

Now what is really important is Conferenxe NET, because that drives and maximizes/mininizes the impact of your wins and losses. The Average ACC net has risen from 69 to 63 since Dec 27, despite just playing each other. THe ACC did well enough in OOC play that they get a positive multiplier factor where NET will grow as a conference. Unlike last few years where there was a negative multiplier factor which drove things down once conference play started.

 

[RedtheGOB]

They have got in because individual NET is essentially a non factor in tournament selection. It’s based on resume of wins, losses and quality of such. Of course there tends to be a strong correlation between the two because a strong resume usually leads to having a strong NET. But its not 100% correlation either. A better resume of wins and losses will always beat out a better NET.


Feels this board at times gets a little too drawn into individual NET as a basis for selection.

Now what is really important is Conferenxe NET, because that drives and maximizes/mininizes the impact of your wins and losses. The Average ACC net has risen from 69 to 63 since Dec 27, despite just playing each other. THe ACC did well enough in OOC play that they get a positive multiplier factor where NET will grow as a conference. Unlike last few years where there was a negative multiplier factor which drove things down once conference play started.

Im starting to feel like not as many wins will be needed in the ACC for a bid not just for us but the rest of the ACC bubble. I just think no one wants to leave it up to chance so ppl are like 22.

22 wins is a lot when there could be another P5 team making the tourney with 20 wins maybe even as low as 19. I also think this isn’t one of those years where some league gets like 12-13 teams in. I wouldn’t be surprised really if the main P4s all gets 8-9 and then the Big East gets shorted with 4 and the midmajors barely have a multi bid league.

Good for us I guess but no one wants to see Autry just squeak through with how much talent on this roster.

 

[Niastri]

We're at 60 as of right now, before games are played tonight.

Increased by 5 not playing any games

It's hard to believe this late in the season the NET is still so swingy that we have 5 place moves on our off days.

I wonder how late in the season the end ranking is mostly cooked? Us having 15 point swings after every game has to settle down at some point? Anybody have a sense of that? With us being so bad the last few years, I have gotten all my NET knowledge this season, and a lot of that from jncuse

 

[Niastri]

currently 9 teams with more losses than the Cuse with a higher kenpom ranking than the orange (#58)
oklahoma, cincinnati, creighton, TCU, washington, VCU, texas, auburn, kentucky

currently 17 (!) 5 loss teams with a higher kenpom than SU (SU currently at 12-5 record)
VA Tech, Santa clara, LSU, UCLA, Wisconsin, Baylor, Indiana, NC state, Iowa, Lousiville, St johns, alabama, kansas, tennessee, florida, kansas, ohio state

i think SU is suffering here bc they dont know how to win by maximum margin and often turn games they could win by 20+ into single digit wins.

but it also shows that if they can string together a couple more wins they will probaby jump considerably in the metric bc there are roughly 26 teams above them with worse or comparable W-L records

personally I think kenpom significantly undervalues W-L record

also, this isnt about the hofstra loss either - hofstra is 13-5 with a higher kenpom than marquette, gtown, fsu, penn state, maryland, ga tech, rutgers, etc - that loss will only get better as the season goes on, imo

on top of all that, not having donnie will undoubtedly help them when it comes to selection sunday

as long as they can continue to play well from here on out

If we are on the bubble and Freeman is still playing like an All America, we'll be in. He will make a lackluster bubble team into a game people will want to watch, which means ratings. The selection committee has that as an unstated criteria.

 

[Orangezoo]

They have got in because individual NET is essentially a non factor in tournament selection. It’s based on resume of wins, losses and quality of such. Of course there tends to be a strong correlation between the two because a strong resume usually leads to having a strong NET. But its not 100% correlation either. A better resume of wins and losses will always beat out a better NET.


Feels this board at times gets a little too drawn into individual NET as a basis for selection.

Now what is really important is Conferenxe NET, because that drives and maximizes/mininizes the impact of your wins and losses. The Average ACC net has risen from 69 to 63 since Dec 27, despite just playing each other. THe ACC did well enough in OOC play that they get a positive multiplier factor where NET will grow as a conference. Unlike last few years where there was a negative multiplier factor which drove things down once conference play started.

Good stuff as always. One interesting resume to watch is Stanford. They sit one spot above us( we are now 64 vs 60, I presume in some part due to Hofstra losing to Stony Brook) and are also 4-1 in quad 1 games while they also have both a quad 3 and a quad 4 loss.

 

[JaySU22]

I think it’s fascinating we could have the “judge us with Donnie” resume case when Wildhack is the head of the committee. We have been a lightning rod on Selection Sunday a few times before but this would be another level. Still, a lot of work ahead of us to even get on the bubble, so we shall see.

 

[grepal]

SU is an exciting watch. I think SU could bring a lot of eyeballs to screens. Mid major at larges for the most part, are very boring.

 

[Fly Rodder]

JThom Analytics has a projected final record of 17.9-14.7. So, 18 and 14, including a game in the conference tourney. IMO, they would need to stretch to 22 wins to be firmly in. But I think with recent history, no great wins and OT losses to BC and Hofstra, 23 wins is more like it. That seems to be ... unlikely since it includes winning out at home and taking 3 on the road.

Over at Torvik, SU is ranked 60th and projected for 18 wins. Per their metrics, no team with a similar resume as SU has made the tourney and only one team with a similar profile (D and O rankings) has previously made the tourney as an at large (GW in 2014).

 

[Cstate]

Down 11 spots to 75