NFL Thread - 2020 | Page 311 | Syracusefan.com

NFL Thread - 2020

Lots of Andrew Luck returning chatter on Twitter the past few days. That would make the Colts instant contenders.
 
Cusefan0307 said:
Lots of Andrew Luck returning chatter on Twitter the past few days. That would make the Colts instant contenders.
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Colts old GM killed Luck’s body.
Now that they have an elite OL it would make sense if he has any passion left.
Only 31 and has 2 years left at 22.5 million per year.

I wouldn’t expect him to comeback and be sharp but it would make sense.

AFC is just loaded now.
Everyone was saying Stafford was to Indy.


Vikings are trying to see if they can offload Cousins to the 49ers and just do a full rebuild as well.
 
syrBossHogg said:
I can't see any team giving up two 1sts for Carr
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It'll probably be close. A lot of value in an average or slightly above-average NFL QB to a lot of teams. I would have killed for one in Buffalo for about 20 straight years. For a team like Washington, he may be worth giving 2 1sts. Sure #19 and a 2022 2nd would be better but having a bottom 5 starter literally makes the entire rest of the roster irrelevant. Once that picks becomes a player it's a lot easier to stomach. If I had that defense I'd rather have Carr then have Mac Jones and the 17th pick of the 2022 draft.
 
Alsacs said:
Colts old GM killed Luck’s body.
Now that they have an elite OL it would make sense if he has any passion left.
Only 31 and has 2 years left at 22.5 million per year.

I wouldn’t expect him to comeback and be sharp but it would make sense.

AFC is just loaded now.
Everyone was saying Stafford was to Indy.


Vikings are trying to see if they can offload Cousins to the 49ers and just do a full rebuild as well.
Expand...
I always thought Barry Sanders and Megatron would come back, these guys that retire early just don't come back.
 
Briancuse said:
I always thought Barry Sanders and Megatron would come back, these guys that retire early just don't come back.
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Barry Sanders would have come back in 1999 with Miami Dolphins but the Lions wouldn’t trade rights and they wanted Sanders to pay back 5.5 million dollars.
Sanders said he would if the Lions released him. Detroit wouldn’t do it so Sanders didn’t repay the money and couldn’t come out of retirement.

Megatron when he retired had to repay the Lions his signing bonus prorated. He would have agreed to come out of retirement but again the Lions owned his right.

The Lions don’t treat their legends well and the organization is cheap and garbage because of this stuff.

Andrew Luck left the Colts on better terms he didn’t repay any money and is friendly with the organization.

Legends have come out of retirement after a year off Reggie White did it with the Panthers, Gronk did it this year with Bucs.

Andrew Luck is only 31. He isn’t washed up. He left because his body got beat up and the beatings took a toil.
The ex-GM of the Colts didn’t prioritize his OL like his successor.

I don’t think it’s a lock Luck comes out of retirement but it’s not something that would surprise anybody.
 
chugg21 said:
It'll probably be close. A lot of value in an average or slightly above-average NFL QB to a lot of teams. I would have killed for one in Buffalo for about 20 straight years. For a team like Washington, he may be worth giving 2 1sts. Sure #19 and a 2022 2nd would be better but having a bottom 5 starter literally makes the entire rest of the roster irrelevant. Once that picks becomes a player it's a lot easier to stomach. If I had that defense I'd rather have Carr then have Mac Jones and the 17th pick of the 2022 draft.
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'Average' QBs used to be valuable for sure; now idk, it's not that hard anymore to find the competent baseline you're talking about. IMO this has been a big paradigm shift in the league in the last decade. I and many others overvalued Tyrod Taylor in the moment because "Hey, we have a competent QB finally!" - the previous 20 years made it seem so difficult to find one but it no longer is. Any team that wants him or Fitz or Cousins or Goff or Carr or Winston/Mariotta or Tannehill last year or pre leg exploding Alex Smith can have them. There will be maybe 4 teams that have no chance with a crappy qb going into next year but there used to be about 18 such teams...
I'd probably rather be one of the 4 teams w no shot than give up assets for Carr so I can go 8-8.
 
BuffOrange said:
'Average' QBs used to be valuable for sure; now idk, it's not that hard anymore to find the competent baseline you're talking about. IMO this has been a big paradigm shift in the league in the last decade. I and many others overvalued Tyrod Taylor in the moment because "Hey, we have a competent QB finally!" - the previous 20 years made it seem so difficult to find one but it no longer is. Any team that wants him or Fitz or Cousins or Goff or Carr or Winston/Mariotta or Tannehill last year or pre leg exploding Alex Smith can have them. There will be maybe 4 teams that have no chance with a crappy qb going into next year but there used to be about 18 such teams...
I'd probably rather be one of the 4 teams w no shot than give up assets for Carr so I can go 8-8.
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The problem with average QBs is they still cost a ton.

If tbere was an actual structure for QB pay that made sense to want them.
Paying Kirk Cousins 33 million is insane when he is just average.
It makes Mahomes 40 million a bargain.

Brady depressed the QB market for so long agents didn’t care when they negotiated and got inferior players paid a lot.
Franchise QBs deserve a lot more than Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater, Jimmy G, Kirk Cousins, Carson Wentz, Jared Goff types.
It’s all rookie deals or overpays now.

If you aren’t going to be a playoff team it’s stupid to pay a non-franchise QB on more than a 1 year deal.

If they made 15-25 million while franchise guys made 30+ million the cap would see more guys get paid better and their would be value to trading picks for them.
 
Alsacs said:
The problem with average QBs is they still cost a ton.

If tbere was an actual structure for QB pay that made sense to want them.
Paying Kirk Cousins 33 million is insane when he is just average.
It makes Mahomes 40 million a bargain.

Brady depressed the QB market for so long agents didn’t care when they negotiated and got inferior players paid a lot.
Franchise QBs deserve a lot more than Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater, Jimmy G, Kirk Cousins, Carson Wentz, Jared Goff types.
It’s all rookie deals or overpays now.

If you aren’t going to be a playoff team it’s stupid to pay a non-franchise QB on more than a 1 year deal.

If they made 15-25 million while franchise guys made 30+ million the cap would see more guys get paid better and their would be value to trading picks for them.
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Agree mostly. It's chicken/egg though. The market for Cousins doesn't get ridiculously inflated if teams realized how easy he is to replace. There should be a market correction at some point when they wise up.
I was also saying RBs don't matter & stop punting 20yrs ago so the league is usually a good 15yrs behind.
 
BuffOrange said:
'Average' QBs used to be valuable for sure; now idk, it's not that hard anymore to find the competent baseline you're talking about. IMO this has been a big paradigm shift in the league in the last decade. I and many others overvalued Tyrod Taylor in the moment because "Hey, we have a competent QB finally!" - the previous 20 years made it seem so difficult to find one but it no longer is. Any team that wants him or Fitz or Cousins or Goff or Carr or Winston/Mariotta or Tannehill last year or pre leg exploding Alex Smith can have them. There will be maybe 4 teams that have no chance with a crappy qb going into next year but there used to be about 18 such teams...
I'd probably rather be one of the 4 teams w no shot than give up assets for Carr so I can go 8-8.
Expand...
I think Carr is a lot better than those guys you are lumping him in with. He's not tier 1 by any means but he's somewhere in that 12-15 range. Stats/Metrics he was top 12 in this year, Comp%, Yards, TDs, Int%, Yds/A, AY/A, QB rating, QBR, GWD.

Stats/Metrics he was top 12 last year, Comp%, Yards, Int%, Yds/A, AY/A, QB rating, QBR, GWD

PFF has him as a top 10 QB too.

Honestly surprised by how good he rates by both regular and advanced stats. I'm far from a Carr stan and don't give a single crap about him but he may actually be way better than we think he is because the Raiders always have garbage at WR and on D.
 
chugg21 said:
I think Carr is a lot better than those guys you are lumping him in with. He's not tier 1 by any means but he's somewhere in that 12-15 range. Stats/Metrics he was top 12 in this year, Comp%, Yards, TDs, Int%, Yds/A, AY/A, QB rating, QBR, GWD.

Stats/Metrics he was top 12 last year, Comp%, Yards, Int%, Yds/A, AY/A, QB rating, QBR, GWD

PFF has him as a top 10 QB too.

Honestly surprised by how good he rates by both regular and advanced stats. I'm far from a Carr stan and don't give a single crap about him but he may actually be way better than we think he is because the Raiders always have garbage at WR and on D.
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Carr reminds me of Tony Romo.

He isn’t garbage but he will make mistakes that prevent him from being upper tier.

Again I would take him on my team for 15th pick but not much more.

I think a good coach could win with him.

I don’t think he can carry a franchise though.

I wouldn’t want pay Carr 33 million+ though. His 25 million a year deal is perfect.
It’s not an overpay and you can spend around that to help him.
 
Alsacs said:
Carr reminds me of Tony Romo.

He isn’t garbage but he will make mistakes that prevent him from being upper tier.

Again I would take him on my team for 15th pick but not much more.

I think a good coach could win with him.

I don’t think he can carry a franchise though.

I wouldn’t want pay Carr 33 million+ though. His 25 million a year deal is perfect.
It’s not an overpay and you can spend around that to help him.
Expand...
I'm honestly kind of stunned at how good the numbers are vs public opinion. The counting stats are real good, advanced stats are real good, qbr, pff, everything. Despite having tyrell williams and nelson agholor as his best wrs outside of Waller. He's top 5 at avoiding ints and was 2nd in game winning drives too. So think that kinda negates the idea that he makes mistakes to blow games too.
 
Alsacs said:
Carr reminds me of Tony Romo.

He isn’t garbage but he will make mistakes that prevent him from being upper tier.

Again I would take him on my team for 15th pick but not much more.

I think a good coach could win with him.

I don’t think he can carry a franchise though.

I wouldn’t want pay Carr 33 million+ though. His 25 million a year deal is perfect.
It’s not an overpay and you can spend around that to help him.
Expand...
Romo was much better.
 
Briancuse said:
Can't access without a subscription, what was Staubach/Bradshaw?
Expand...

Methodology​

To assess the quality of the starting quarterbacks, we converted Pro Football Reference’s Hall of Fame Monitor — a metric designed to estimate a player’s chances of making the Pro Football Hall of Fame using Doug Drinen’s approximate value, Pro Bowls, all-pros, championships and various numerical milestones — to a scale of 0 to 100. The higher the number, the better the starting quarterback. To gauge the performance of those quarterbacks in the season leading up to and including the Super Bowl we turned to Richie Wohlers’s quarterback game score, another modification to a James formula used for pitchers.
Once we had those three numbers for each of the starting Super Bowl quarterbacks, we averaged them together using the harmonic mean rather than a simple average. This method prioritizes Super Bowl matchups of two quality passers over games featuring one dominating quarterback who propped up an inferior foe. This is perhaps best illustrated by our worst-rated matchup: Peyton Manning vs. Rex Grossman in 2007. While Manning had a terrific season and was in the prime of his career, Grossman was the league’s 24th-rated passer that year and didn’t have much individual success before or after his only Super Bowl appearance.

1. Super Bowl XLIV: Drew Brees vs. Peyton Manning (2010)
2. Super Bowl LI: Tom Brady vs. Matt Ryan (2017)
3. Super Bowl LV: Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes (2021)
4. Super Bowl XIX: Dan Marino vs. Joe Montana (1985)
5. Super Bowl XLVI: Tom Brady vs. Eli Manning (2012)
6. Super Bowl XXXII: John Elway vs. Brett Favre (1998)
7. Super Bowl XLIX: Tom Brady vs. Russell Wilson (2015)
8. Super Bowl XXIV: John Elway vs. Joe Montana (1990)
9. Super Bowl XLV: Aaron Rodgers vs. Ben Roethlisberger (2011)
10. Super Bowl XXXVI: Tom Brady vs. Kurt Warner (2002)
11. Super Bowl XLVIII: Peyton Manning vs. Russell Wilson (2014)
12. Super Bowl XLII: Tom Brady vs. Eli Manning (2008)
13. Super Bowl XVI: Ken Anderson vs. Joe Montana (1982)
14. Super Bowl XXXIX: Tom Brady vs. Donovan McNabb (2005)
15. Super Bowl XIII: Terry Bradshaw vs. Roger Staubach (1979)
16. Super Bowl XLIII: Ben Roethlisberger vs. Kurt Warner (2009)
17. Super Bowl XI: Ken Stabler vs. Fran Tarkenton (1976)
18. Super Bowl 50: Peyton Manning vs. Cam Newton (2016)
19. Super Bowl X: Terry Bradshaw vs. Roger Staubach (1976)
20. Super Bowl XXIII: Boomer Esiason vs. Joe Montana (1989)
21. Super Bowl XXXI: Drew Bledsoe vs. Brett Favre (1997)
22. Super Bowl XXI: John Elway vs. Phil Simms (1987)
23. Super Bowl I: Len Dawson vs. Bart Starr (1967)
24. Super Bowl VIII: Bob Griese vs. Fran Tarkenton (1974)
25. Super Bowl IX: Terry Bradshaw vs. Fran Tarkenton (1975)
26. Super Bowl XXXIV: Steve McNair vs. Kurt Warner (2000)
27. Super Bowl VI: Bob Griese vs. Roger Staubach (1972)
28. Super Bowl XXVII: Troy Aikman vs. Jim Kelly (1993)
29. Super Bowl II: Daryle Lamonica vs. Bart Starr (1968)
30. Super Bowl XXVIII: Troy Aikman vs. Jim Kelly (1994)
31. Super Bowl XXXIII: Chris Chandler vs. John Elway (1999)
32. Super Bowl XL: Matt Hasselbeck vs. Ben Roethlisberger (2006)
33. Super Bowl XVIII: Jim Plunkett vs. Joe Theismann (1984)
34. Super Bowl V: Craig Morton vs. Johnny Unitas (1971)
35. Super Bowl III: Earl Morrall vs. Joe Namath (1969)
36. Super Bowl XXXVII: Rich Gannon vs. Brad Johnson (2003)
37. Super Bowl XXII: John Elway vs. Doug Williams (1988)
38. Super Bowl XXXVIII: Tom Brady vs. Jake Delhomme (2004)
39. Super Bowl LIV: Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Patrick Mahomes (2020)
40. Super Bowl XII: Craig Morton vs. Roger Staubach (1978)
41. Super Bowl XV: Ron Jaworski vs. Jim Plunkett (1981)
42. Super Bowl XXVI: Jim Kelly vs. Mark Rypien (1992)
43. Super Bowl LII: Tom Brady vs. Nick Foles (2018)
44. Super Bowl LIII: Tom Brady vs. Jared Goff (2019)
45. Super Bowl VII: Bob Griese vs. Billy Kilmer (1973)
46. Super Bowl XXX: Troy Aikman vs. Neil O’Donnell (1996)
47. Super Bowl XXIX: Stan Humphries vs. Steve Young (1995)
48. Super Bowl XXV: Jeff Hostetler vs. Jim Kelly (1991)
49. Super Bowl XXXV: Kerry Collins vs. Trent Dilfer (2001)
50. Super Bowl XLVII: Joe Flacco vs. Colin Kaepernick (2013)
51. Super Bowl XIV: Terry Bradshaw vs. Vince Ferragamo (1980)
52. Super Bowl XVII: Joe Theismann vs. David Woodley (1983)
53. Super Bowl XX: Tony Eason vs. Jim McMahon (1986)
54. Super Bowl IV: Len Dawson vs. Joe Kapp (1970)
55. Super Bowl XLI: Rex Grossman vs. Peyton Manning (2007)
 
chugg21 said:
I'm honestly kind of stunned at how good the numbers are vs public opinion. The counting stats are real good, advanced stats are real good, qbr, pff, everything. Despite having tyrell williams and nelson agholor as his best wrs outside of Waller. He's top 5 at avoiding ints and was 2nd in game winning drives too. So think that kinda negates the idea that he makes mistakes to blow games too.
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Pre broken leg yes. Since then he gets happy feet and throws the ball away way too much when the rushing yards are there. Don't get me started on his idiotic endzone pylon plays. His stats are empty calories. I'm praying they get rid of this jesus freak cult leader.
 
BuffOrange said:
Agree mostly. It's chicken/egg though. The market for Cousins doesn't get ridiculously inflated if teams realized how easy he is to replace. There should be a market correction at some point when they wise up.
I was also saying RBs don't matter & stop punting 20yrs ago so the league is usually a good 15yrs behind.
Expand...

Yeah a lot teams used to be so bad at developing QBs in their offenses unless the player was a generational talent. Now teams are starting to get better at supporting them, but teams are still desperate to overpay for any QB that shows a minimal amount of promise.
 
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