NFL Thread - 2020

[chugg21]

That's why we need to look at overall efficiency and non-garbage time situations. It's easy to put up garbage stats in today's game.

Hard to do when you have a defense ranked in the mid-20s or 30s and no running game, the entire game is essentially garbage time.

 

[Melancer46]

Also, kinda fun to put this trade in the context of what a Watson/Jets trade would look like. If you follow those NFL Trade Value charts that some teams swear by, the Rams would have had to offer at least 6 first round picks just to match the Jets #2 overall pick and Houston is asking for that plus more 1sts.

 

[syrBossHogg]

 

[chugg21]

Also, kinda fun to put this trade in the context of what a Watson/Jets trade would look like. If you follow those NFL Trade Value charts that some teams swear by, the Rams would have had to offer at least 6 first round picks just to match the Jets #2 overall pick and Houston is asking for that plus more 1sts.

I'm fascinated with what the Jets decide to do. Have 3 distinct options and I can't say that any of them are a great idea or bad idea. Keep Darnold and load up around him to see if he is the guy everyone had projected #1 overall. Draft Wilson/Fields and load up around him on a rookie deal for the next 5 years. Trade for Watson. Honestly think trading #2 and at least 2 more 1sts for Watson is my least favorite since they aren't likely to be good with him next year any way and the opportunity cost they lose in building up the roster with both the loss of the picks plus losing about $25m/year in cap space with him vs the other 2 is a lot to overcome. Which option would you prefer?

 

[chugg21]

Didn't realize that Goff has fumbled 29 times in the last 3 seasons. So add that to 41 picks and that's entering Jameis territory. Stafford with 26 picks and 13 fumbles over the same time period. Those are total fumbles and not lost but that's probably not insignificant in their thinking.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I don't even know what we are going back and forth about at this point lol. I'd put him in the 8-12 range, the tier where if you have a good roster then you have a shot to win it all. Guess it doesn't really matter where either of us rank him, the dudes that get paid to make these deals for a living seemed to value him quite highly even at 33.

To be clear I wasn’t arguing Stafford isn’t good. It’s just crazy to me that it took 2 first rounders. We will see if this puts them on par with GB and TB, but I am skeptical.

 

[Trueblue25]

If Miami cant have him, for the love of god don’t let the Jets have him.

The pats wont play ball at this point for Watson.

 

[Alsacs]

If Miami cant have him, for the love of god don’t let the Jets have him.

The pats wont play ball at this point for Watson.

Carolina, Jets, Dolphins or Niners.

 

[Trueblue25]

Carolina, Jets, Dolphins or Niners.

I cannot do a division where the Dolphins are competing against Allen, Watson and whatever trickery Billy Boy has in the works.

Dolphins need to make some form of another leap this offseason. If we go another draft without taking a RB in the second or third too I’ll die.

Get Robinson alongside Parker if we can’t get a better QB

 

[chugg21]

To be clear I wasn’t arguing Stafford isn’t good. It’s just crazy to me that it took 2 first rounders. We will see if this puts them on par with GB and TB, but I am skeptical.

It all comes down to how you look at the 2 1st rounders. I believe the actual trade for Stafford was a 2022 1st and a 2021 3rd. The Goff aspect needs to be looked at completely separate.

In order to get him off of their books they gave the 2023 1st to do it. The Rams couldn't cut Goff because his extension is just kicking in this year. So if they cut him, they would have gotten whacked with a $65m dead cap hit which obviously is a non-starter. They were able to reduce that down to a $22m dead cap hit by trading him because now the Lions will take on the roster bonuses that he has in the deal.

It's combined in 1 deal and at 1st glance looks like they paid 2 1sts for Stafford but it's certainly more of an NBA type trade then we are used to seeing in the NFL. It's standard in the NBA and NHL to have to attach a pick to a toxic contract to get out of it.

 

[Melancer46]

I'm fascinated with what the Jets decide to do. Have 3 distinct options and I can't say that any of them are a great idea or bad idea. Keep Darnold and load up around him to see if he is the guy everyone had projected #1 overall. Draft Wilson/Fields and load up around him on a rookie deal for the next 5 years. Trade for Watson. Honestly think trading #2 and at least 2 more 1sts for Watson is my least favorite since they aren't likely to be good with him next year any way and the opportunity cost they lose in building up the roster with both the loss of the picks plus losing about $25m/year in cap space with him vs the other 2 is a lot to overcome. Which option would you prefer?

I would stick with Darnold personally, mainly because I believe in building up the team first and adding the rookie QB at the end so you maximize your window with the rookie salary. Probably try to trade down from #2 unless they really love one of the OTs, but they already have Becton so that’s not a huge need either.

I think drafting a QB this year is my least favorite of the choices though. Just seems pointless to start the rookie salary clock over right now when they’re a year or two away from being competitive anyways.

Watson is at least worthy of his contract and the Jets could really use anything that would make them a respectable organization again.

 

[Cusefan0307]

The argument for the Jets to trade the house for Watson makes sense when you‘re the B team in your city and you would do anything to get yourself above the Giants.

 

[Alsacs]

It all comes down to how you look at the 2 1st rounders. I believe the actual trade for Stafford was a 2022 1st and a 2021 3rd. The Goff aspect needs to be looked at completely separate.

In order to get him off of their books they gave the 2023 1st to do it. The Rams couldn't cut Goff because his extension is just kicking in this year. So if they cut him, they would have gotten whacked with a $65m dead cap hit which obviously is a non-starter. They were able to reduce that down to a $22m dead cap hit by trading him because now the Lions will take on the roster bonuses that he has in the deal.

It's combined in 1 deal and at 1st glance looks like they paid 2 1sts for Stafford but it's certainly more of an NBA type trade then we are used to seeing in the NFL. It's standard in the NBA and NHL to have to attach a pick to a toxic contract to get out of it.

The top 6 salaries on the Rams roster cost 109 million.
They only have 3 picks in this draft.
They will get 2 3rd comp picks next year.

I don’t think it’s a lock the Rams are good in 2 years.
Whitworth is old.
They better win in the next 2 years.
The talent on the roster is going to age out and they will be bad.

 

[Arangeman]

Rams fan. Les Snead gave out terrible contracts and doesn’t value draft picks. Their window is the next 2-3 years. Goff sucks. He’s awful against good teams outside of the NFC west and panics under pressure. He could not return. I’m fine with taking a chance on reviving Stafford. They have a great defense and a breakout star RB. Stafford just has to be a little better than Goff.

 

[chugg21]

The top 6 salaries on the Rams roster cost 109 million.
They only have 3 picks in this draft.
They will get 2 3rd comp picks next year.

I don’t think it’s a lock the Rams are good in 2 years.
Whitworth is old.
They better win in the next 2 years.
The talent on the roster is going to age out and they will be bad.

That's why that 2023 pick is exciting. Stafford will have been 34 during that season. Whitworth for sure will be gone. Donald will be 31 and likely very good but not best player in the world. Stafford hasn't been the most durable guy of late either, he's had some pretty bad back issues the last 2 years. Doesn't take a lot of things to happen for that pick to end up in the 10-15 range instead of 20s.

 

[samspann1]

Curran: Stafford nixed New England as a trade destination

The Patriots were reportedly one of a handful of teams kicking the tires on acquiring Matthew Stafford, but as our Tom E. Curran learned in the aftermath of the Lions shipping him to L.A., Stafford had no intentions of calling Foxboro home.

www.nbcsports.com

 

[chugg21]

The top 6 salaries on the Rams roster cost 109 million.
They only have 3 picks in this draft.
They will get 2 3rd comp picks next year.

I don’t think it’s a lock the Rams are good in 2 years.
Whitworth is old.
They better win in the next 2 years.
The talent on the roster is going to age out and they will be bad.

The top 6 are $109 but you also need to add in $20m for Stafford and $22m for Goff's dead cap hit. Now you are at $151 for 7 guys on the roster and a salary cap likely coming in around $180-185.

 

[Alsacs]

The argument for the Jets to trade the house for Watson makes sense when you‘re the B team in your city and you would do anything to get yourself above the Giants.

If Watson has a good organization behind he wins 10 games a year most of the time.
Jets offer of 2, 23, 34, Darnold probably should have been enough prior to the Stafford deal.
Now the Jets probably have to give a 2022 pick as well.

The Fins can do 3, 18, 36, Tua and a 2022 pick.

 

[Alsacs]

Curran: Stafford nixed New England as a trade destination

The Patriots were reportedly one of a handful of teams kicking the tires on acquiring Matthew Stafford, but as our Tom E. Curran learned in the aftermath of the Lions shipping him to L.A., Stafford had no intentions of calling Foxboro home.

www.nbcsports.com

Curran is FOS. Belichick has iced him out of the NE sources for information.
Stafford wanted LA.
Because Curran is a Brady leaker.
The Patriots would never pay a 1 and 3 for Stafford.
He is just taking shots at Belichick because the Boston media hates the fans and Belichick is a jerk to them.

 

[Melancer46]

The top 6 salaries on the Rams roster cost 109 million.
They only have 3 picks in this draft.
They will get 2 3rd comp picks next year.

I don’t think it’s a lock the Rams are good in 2 years.
Whitworth is old.
They better win in the next 2 years.
The talent on the roster is going to age out and they will be bad.

Rams most likely have 6 picks in this years draft. They’re expected to receive 3 compensatory picks in this year’s draft: 1 for Fowler, 1 for Littleton, and 1 for the Black GM that was hired away by Detroit

 

[Alsacs]

Rams most likely have 6 picks in this years draft. They’re expected to receive 3 compensatory picks in this year’s draft: 1 for Fowler, 1 for Littleton, and 1 for the Black GM that was hired away by Detroit

Is the comp pick for the GM this draft or the next 2?

 

[samspann1]

Is the comp pick for the GM this draft or the next 2?

this year, I believe.

Teams that get 2 comp picks for minority hires have them spread out over the '21 and '22 drafts

 

[Melancer46]

Also haven’t seen it mentioned really but the Lions’ GM was just hired away from LA and he immediately took what’s considered a lesser offer to send Stafford to LA.

 

[Alsacs]

Also haven’t seen it mentioned really but the Lions’ GM was just hired away from LA and he immediately took what’s considered a lesser offer to send Stafford to LA.

The Washington offer was for this year though.
Those LA picks are lottery picks.
They could be really good or late picks.
Plus Goff gives Lynn a veteran QB.

I don’t think this was a bad trade for
Detroit unless they were offered a really good pick this year like top 15.

 

[chugg21]

this year, I believe.

Teams that get 2 comp picks for minority hires have them spread out over the '21 and '22 drafts

Yep. The 49ers actually have 2 guys that have been hired in Mayhew & Saleh. Apparently there is a rule though that you get 2 for the 1st guy and then only 1 for the 2nd guy. Either way they have 3 extra 3rds in the next 2 drafts. That's not insignificant extra ammo in going after Watson or others they may target in looking to upgrade from Jimmy G.