Only Two More Wins - Are We In?

[rstone7727]

Scenario:

Lose to UNC 18-10 - 7-8
Lose to Duke 18-11 - 7-9
Win @ BC 19-11 - 8-9
Lose to Clem 19-12 - 8-10
Win one game in ACCT 20-12 - 8-10

Pretty sure we would be in...
Of course it would be nice to win more of them but trying to be realistic here..

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Scenario:

Lose to UNC 18-10 - 7-8
Lose to Duke 18-11 - 7-9
Win @ BC 19-11 - 8-9
Lose to Clem 19-12 - 8-10
Win one game in ACCT 20-12 - 8-10

Pretty sure we would be in...
Of course it would be nice to win more of them but trying to be realistic here..

We would be depending on a lot of dominoes to fall our way. We would be 20-13. Nothing sexy about that except that I did pick 19-12 and 1-1 for my Iggy picks. Besides that I wouldn't be holding my breath.

 

[pearl31]

Yes.

 

[rstone7727]

UCONN going belly up hurts the overall picture but we had an ok ooc schedule.. Hope springs eternal. ACC, imo is the toughest conference overall, could get 10 teams in.

 

[W'boro'Cuse315]

I know RPI is really the only ranking that matters come March but I wonder if any team has ever made the tourney without beating a single team that was either ranked when they played or ranked to end the season?

In the OP's scenario, we'd likely finish without a single Top 25 (polls or RPI) win all year.

 

[nycfan]

Scenario:

Lose to UNC 18-10 - 7-8
Lose to Duke 18-11 - 7-9
Win @ BC 19-11 - 8-9
Lose to Clem 19-12 - 8-10
Win one game in ACCT 20-12 - 8-10

Pretty sure we would be in...
Of course it would be nice to win more of them but trying to be realistic here..

Personally, I don't think that would get us in. Keep in mind at 8-10 we would be playing in that really early Tuesday round of the ACC Tourney. A win over Pittsburgh won't carry a lot of weight. Win Tues/Wed and we have a shot, but to be safer, let's beat Clemson (I agree on your prognosis for next week). On "senior day" (not that we have any that play) with hopefully close to 30K, is that really such a big ask?

 

[rstone7727]

I know RPI is really the only ranking that matters come March but I wonder if any team has ever made the tourney without beating a single team that was either ranked when they played or ranked to end the season?

Good point, maybe we need to swap the BC win for a UNC or Clemson win...

 

[jncuse]

I will say possibly, but certain;y less than 50%. I think we need two more quality wins to be in 51-100% range... be it regular season or post season. That first ACC game at 8-10 would not qualify as a quality win. I do consider a road win at BC as a quality win.

The bubble went 14-2 yesterday, and did relatively well Mon-Thurs, so I am getting a little more cautious right now. Who knows maybe they go 5-11 in the next segment of games.

 

[blue&orange]

Scenario:

Lose to UNC 18-10 - 7-8
Lose to Duke 18-11 - 7-9
Win @ BC 19-11 - 8-9
Lose to Clem 19-12 - 8-10
Win one game in ACCT 20-12 - 8-10

Pretty sure we would be in...
Of course it would be nice to win more of them but trying to be realistic here..

I think this outcome is very likely. ACCT win would have to be on Wednesday. So 21-13 could be enough. I’d say 60 percent chance we would get in with that. Another factor to watch is who wins small conference tournaments, do a couple of bids vanish with those?

 

[Newhouser]

We need 9-9

 

[Jasoncuse]

If we finish 8-10, I can't see us getting in unless we win 2+ in the ACCT. Remember, while at the end of the regular season we may be right there, we are most likely going to see 2-4 bid stealers, knocking borderline teams out.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

I’d say let’s just beat UNC and Duke this week and lock up a bid.

 

[SUintheVille]

If Cuse loses 3 out of last 4 and ends up 8-10 in ACC, that doesn't get it done, unless they win at least 2 (not 1) in ACCT.

Go 2-2 with 1 ACCT win - in for sure.
Go 1-3 but the 1 win is Duke or UNC, and 1 ACCT win - in.
Go 1-3 but the 1 win is Duke or UNC, and 0 ACCT wins - maybe in, but nervous.

 

[Dinkyspond]

I know this means nothing but during the ESPNU game between Pitt and FSU they had graphic of the ACC tourney if the season ended today. They had us at 10-seed and Miami at 9. How could that be if Cuse and Canes are both 7-7 and we won head to head. Is there some other tiebreaker that I don't know about or does ESPNU have it wrong? (No surprise there from the World Wide Bleeder from cord cuts)

 

[jncuse]

If we finish 8-10, I can't see us getting in unless we win 2+ in the ACCT. Remember, while at the end of the regular season we may be right there, we are most likely going to see 2-4 bid stealers, knocking borderline teams out.

Maybe 2.. not going to see 3 or 4. Not enough teams that can steal bids this year.

You have the MWC. A-10, and maybe CUSA.

 

[cusefan88]

First and foremost, MUST win at BC. Then:

Beat Clemson and Lose to UNC/Duke - First Four
Beat Clemson & UNC but Lose to Duke - IN as a 10 seed.

 

[jdubs30]

Clemson is tasty because they have great metrics and are top 10 in RPI - but without Grantham they are no where close to the same team. Beating them would inflate our metrics significantly.

I think a win @BC and Clemson - and losing in the 1st round of the ACCT puts us right there. Most likely winning 1 game in the ACCT won't do much for our overall profile because of the competition; given the choice between the 2, we take the Clemson win over an ACCT tourney win easily.

Honestly I could see us beating UNC - they aren't as good as the past and they usually kill us with their size which isn't as imposing this year. I could also see us beating Duke - we've faired well vs. them since joining the ACC and they have no depth and really only 2 jump shooters.

If we want to put it as simple as possible - if we protect homecourt we will be in the tournament.

 

[Eric15]

Scenario:

Lose to UNC 18-10 - 7-8
Lose to Duke 18-11 - 7-9
Win @ BC 19-11 - 8-9
Lose to Clem 19-12 - 8-10
Win one game in ACCT 20-12 - 8-10

Pretty sure we would be in...
Of course it would be nice to win more of them but trying to be realistic here..

We're still on the outside looking in as of today's Bracketmatrix update. I suppose it's possible that beating BC and then some middle-of-the-pack ACC team like Va Tech is enough to get us over the top, but I wouldn't be confident AT ALL on Selection Sunday.

I know we're all feeling great after yesterday, but in reality we still have a lot of work to do.

 

[pearl31]

Yes.

To clarify:
Win any combo of 2 of the next 4 and we're in. If, in some weird twist, we were to somehow win @ duke but lose the other 3 (and not get a win in NY) we could also get in, depending on the bubble

 

[Madbiker]

We need to win 1 of the remaining home games and at BC to have a decent chance to get in. Not going 9-9 in conference will be an easy elimination red flag. An ACCT win over Pitt or Wake does nothing for our chances other than provide an opportunity to get a quality win next game. But I don't like our chances playing back to back days in ACCT with no bench.

 

[Chris02M]

I know this means nothing but during the ESPNU game between Pitt and FSU they had graphic of the ACC tourney if the season ended today. They had us at 10-seed and Miami at 9. How could that be if Cuse and Canes are both 7-7 and we won head to head. Is there some other tiebreaker that I don't know about or does ESPNU have it wrong? (No surprise there from the World Wide Bleeder from cord cuts)

probably lazyness by espn as before the game us fsu and miami were all 7-7

 

[Chris02M]

i really want to avoid the 8-9 game in acct this year

 

[Cusefan0307]

I think we go 3-1 down the stretch. I’m not worried.

 

[l'orange]

9-9 and one ACC tourney win, might get us in.
Anything less and I think we are out.

 

[pearl31]

9-9 and one ACC tourney win, might get us in.
Anything less and I think we are out.

Wrong.