OT - Could the Dwight Howard soap opera be over??

[Gabjon]

I saw the story on ESPN about the basketball prospectus guys, I didn't see anything from Hollinger other than his piece on the trade where he raved about it for the Lakers.

It leaves the Lakers with a bit of a Miami in 2010-11 scenario, in which the pieces don't quite fit and they have to figure out how to make them mesh. As it was with Miami, having pieces such as these means it probably doesn't matter.
Process this: Pau Gasol is the fourth option. The Lakers are running the pick-and-roll with Nash and Howard, Gasol lifting for the midrange J, and Kobe lurking on the weak side? Good luck defending that.​

If you think Kobe is going to sit on the weak side for long periods of a game you are crazy! They will run that offense when Kobe is on the bench.

 

[NailstheCusefan12]

I think if he got out of the first round more than once this would have some more validity.

Also the East has gotten much better since the early 2000's.

They lost in the first round to the Western Conference Champion 4 of those 6 years.

 

[Knicks411]

They lost in the first round to the Western Conference Champion 4 of those 6 years.

Looking it up now...

2010 the Jazz beat them in 6
2008 the Lakers swept them
2007 lost to the Spurs in 5
2006 lost to the Clippers in 5
2005 lost to the Spurs in 5
2004 lost to the Wolves in 5

I count 3 in 6, fwiw. (Maybe you're including 2009 when they lost to the Lakers in the WCF?)

Anyway, so yes, 3 times they played the west conference champion in the first round and they went 2-12. In their 6 first round losses, they only took it to 6 games once. Doesn't exactly sound like a group that was going to contend for titles.

I think if the Nuggets were in the east Melo would have the same number of titles as they do now, and they might have one finals trip.

I may not totally get your point. Do you think Denver would have won titles if they were in the East? When Denver ran up against the teams that were legit title contenders, they were completely outclassed. If they were in the East they would likely have won more playoff series, but Melo still wouldn't have a ring.

 

[moqui]

I saw the story on ESPN about the basketball prospectus guys, I didn't see anything from Hollinger other than his piece on the trade where he raved about it for the Lakers.





Doesn't sound like a guy who has their ceiling at 53 wins.

maybe I mis-read it, but it was in that piece where he said the Lakers had a 53 win ceiling & that would be cold comfort to the other teams

Totally a fair point, though he beat Lebron James and the Cavs and the Garnett/Pierce/Allen/Rondo Celtics. 2 pretty strong teams. This isn't the 02 Nets or even (and this pains me) the 99 Knicks.

Garnett missed that entire post season, so the Celtics were a hollow team; and other than LeBron, those Cleveland teams were more Cadavers than Cavaliers, they were part of that parade of weak sisters.

 

[NailstheCusefan12]

Looking it up now...

2010 the Jazz beat them in 6
2008 the Lakers swept them
2007 lost to the Spurs in 5
2006 lost to the Clippers in 5
2005 lost to the Spurs in 5
2004 lost to the Wolves in 5

I count 3 in 6, fwiw. (Maybe you're including 2009 when they lost to the Lakers in the WCF?)

Anyway, so yes, 3 times they played the west conference champion in the first round and they went 2-12. In their 6 first round losses, they only took it to 6 games once. Doesn't exactly sound like a group that was going to contend for titles.

I think if the Nuggets were in the east Melo would have the same number of titles as they do now, and they might have one finals trip.

I'm not arguing that they were one of the elite teams in the NBA. That's exactly my point. The ownership made the terrible K-Mart contract decision, brought in Allen Iverson, and then was forced to trade Melo because of his expiring contract as the team was finally being formed in a way that allowed him to maximize his talents. (See, 2009). The loss in 2004 came a year following the Nuggets being a lottery team in 2003 and drafting Carmelo 3rd. The Spurs were dominant in 2005. The Clippers loss was awful. The Lakers in 2008 won the West. And the Jazz loss came after George Karl was diagnosed with cancer a month before the season ended and the team was then coached by an assistant during the last month and the playoffs. The West was filled with very good, very deep teams throughout his time there, and the Nuggets were not nearly as well put-together.

 

[Knicks411]

maybe I mis-read it, but it was in that piece where he said the Lakers had a 53 win ceiling & that would be cold comfort to the other teams

Mark my words: When we have our next lockout in 2016, this trade will be one of the flash points. The Lakers have a $99 million payroll, and will go over the century mark if and whenDevin Ebanks and Barnes re-sign. For the small-market owners, all they can do is count the luxury tax dollars from L.A. and golf clap over their 53-win glass ceiling. That's better than losing money, but they're still hermetically sealed off from a taste of the championship unless they're either incredibly lucky or incredibly brilliant.

Bolded the part you refer to; I believe Hollinger is referring to the small market teams here, not the Lakers. The whole paragraph is about the plight of the small market teams and how they're basically capped at 53 wins and can't compete for a title unless they get really lucky. It doesn't really make sense for him to say in one sentence this trade will be a flash point for the next lockout if he thinks the Lakers can't win more than 53 games with the team they have. Then the small market teams should be happy with the trade.


I will bet you a decent amount of money Hollinger makes the Lakers one of his 3 or 4 favorites for the title whenever he does his preview.

Garnett missed that entire post season, so the Celtics were a hollow team; and other than LeBron, those Cleveland teams were more Cadavers than Cavaliers, they were part of that parade of weak sisters.

I had totally blocked the Garnett injury out of my mind, so forget that.

The 07 Cavs were a weak Eastern Finalist, in 09 and 10 they won the most games in the league. (and then promptly underachieved in the playoffs).

I think for the most part, the East was really weak in the early part of the last decade. It improved as the Pistons got good in the middle of the decade. The 07 Cavs weren't a great finalist by any means, but the Magic in 09 beat a team that won 66 games and had one of the best players in the history of the league playing at close to his highest level; so it wasn't like they beat the 01 Sixers. I would still agree the west had better depth at that time, and I doubt seriously the 09 Magic would've made the finals out of the West, but that wasn't my point anyway.

 

[CorduroyG]

Yeah, I think Iggy is overrated. You don't stop Bron or Wade individually, it's a sound team concept. The Lakers are predicated on size. They like being big up front. What killed the Celtics? Trading size for Jeff Green. Cause Green had success guarding Kobe.

In Gasol you have a perfect fit for the pick n roll with Nash. They seem like a perfect fit. We shall see. Do people not get how good Nash was last year? He loves to pass. The lakers have never had a passer in the Kobe era.

Agreed. Thats why im not buying the age thing. Yea in 5 years this "core 4" aint winning any championships. But theyre built for the next 2-3 years, not 5 years. None of these guys has shown signs that theyre gonna turn into larry bird circa 1992 in the next couple years. Nash was great last year, 2nd in assists, tied his best fg% of his career. And thats playing with garbage. Despite kobe having a down year by his standards he still finished 2nd in scoring and 14th in efficiency, and thats playing in the shortened schedule and a stuffload of minutes. And to me the pieces just seem to fit together, nash is a great pick and roll pg, i read a stat that howard is the best pick and roll finisher in the league. Nash is a great 3 pt shooter, something that the lakers have lacked recently. You got a big in gasol who can step out and knock it down from the outside while dwight controls the middle, and is good in the pick and roll also. Artest can focus on being a lock down defender and shoot open 3s. Jamison and Hill are 2 quality bigs off the bench. I just think theyre stacked

 

[CorduroyG]

maybe I mis-read it, but it was in that piece where he said the Lakers had a 53 win ceiling & that would be cold comfort to the other teams



Garnett missed that entire post season, so the Celtics were a hollow team; and other than LeBron, those Cleveland teams were more Cadavers than Cavaliers, they were part of that parade of weak sisters.

in 2009 when the magic beat the cavs in the conference finals the cavs were coming off a 66win regular season and sweeping through the first 2 rounds of the playoffs.regardless of who the supporting cast was that team was a juggernaut all season and through the first 2 rounds. lebron was putting up insane numbers. going into that series NOBODY thought the magic had a chance. and they played the lakers tough in the finals despite losing in 5, they lost game 2 in ot and absolutely gave away game 4.

 

[Knicks411]

It's entirely possible that Nash falls off a cliff this year, but look at a guy like Stockton, he played well even up to age 40. (And incredibly, he didn't miss a game from ages 36 to 40. Incredible).

 

[moqui]

It's entirely possible that Nash falls off a cliff this year, but look at a guy like Stockton, he played well even up to age 40. (And incredibly, he didn't miss a game from ages 36 to 40. Incredible).

I don't think anyone is saying these guys are going to fall off cliffs, but age related decline is inevitable. when your goal is to win championships, it doesn't take much of a slip to make a huge difference (and with the tax bill the Lakers are footing, they are not shooting for the conference semis).

yeah, the Lakers have size, but often its not the big who eat the small, its the fast who eat the slow. The specter of 2nd halves and 4th quarters against young, fast teams in playoff atmospheres should concern Laker fans.

and, by the way, word is out that Dwight will not start the season on the active list, due to the need to continue rehabbing his back.

 

[Knicks411]

and, by the way, word is out that Dwight will not start the season on the active list, due to the need to continue rehabbing his back.

Just saw this. That's not good.

 

[The General]

Just saw this. That's not good.

He had surgery in March. The season starts in Nov. it's not an ACL. He'll be fine.

 

[Gabjon]

He had surgery in March. The season starts in Nov. it's not an ACL. He'll be fine.

Backs are worse than ACL's, very complicated body part

 

[kirbivore]

next june: kobe, nash and dwight vs lebron wade and bosh. that would be the highest rated finals ever.

now theres reports that gasol isnt involved in the trade. kobe, nash, dwight and gasol? holy canoli.

Now that Kim Jong Stern allowed the trade I can breathe easy. Still think OKC is a tough matchup for LA. Should be a great Western Finals.

 

[moqui]

advanced stats guys like Hollinger puts their ceiling at 53 wins,

I saw the story on ESPN about the basketball prospectus guys, I didn't see anything from Hollinger other than his piece on the trade where he raved about it for the Lakers.

today, Hollinger officially puts a number to it: 53 wins, 4th in the West

I apologize for the Cali bump

 

[MyMeloMyMan]

Lol he doesn't think they're winning the pacific? Id win a lot of money on the over if the official # is 53.

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Official number is 58.5...I've seen it as high at 59 at Stardust.

 

[CorduroyG]

today, Hollinger officially puts a number to it: 53 wins, 4th in the West

I apologize for the Cali bump

Lol he doesn't even have them winning the division? Ill win a lot of money on the over if the official over/under is 53

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[moqui]

Lol he doesn't even have them winning the division? Ill win a lot of money on the over if the official over/under is 53

it's regular season only . . . he thinks they are better built for the playoffs than the regular season and will be in the Western Conference Finals .

and 53 is Hollinger's number. As MyMeloMyMan noted, the over/under in Vegas is 58.5. i doubt you are going to bet a lot of money over that number

 

[CorduroyG]

it's regular season only . . . he thinks they are better built for the playoffs than the regular season and will be in the Western Conference Finals .

and 53 is Hollinger's number. As MyMeloMyMan noted, the over/under in Vegas is 58.5. i doubt you are going to bet a lot of money over that number

I think they win 60, but I ain't touching that.

53 is really low, I don't get that, they were on pace to win right around that last year

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[Knicks411]

Haha moqui, that's very funny, I was literally just thinking about this when he posted the thing. I couldn't find the thread to bump.

t's regular season only . . . he thinks they are better built for the playoffs than the regular season and will be in the Western Conference Finals .

Which makes more sense. I think you were saying they would go out in round 2? They are much better built for the playoffs than San Antonio and Denver.

I was real surprised to see him have the Spurs and Denver 1 and 2.

 

[moqui]

Which makes more sense. I think you were saying they would go out in round 2? They are much better built for the playoffs than San Antonio and Denver.

that's where I disagree with Hollinger (and you, I guess) - I think the Lakers are in the same boat as the Spurs - they will get bounced from the playoffs as soon as they run into an uptempo squad with young legs, so if they draw OKC or Denver in round two, they are finished, IMO. The difference between the Lakers & the Spurs is that the Lakers will not have as good a regular season.

I don't know why you think the Lakers, who got older & slower, are better built for the playoffs than Denver, the team that almost took them out in round two last year and who got even more athletic in the offseason

 

[MyMeloMyMan]

that's where I disagree with Hollinger (and you, I guess) - I think the Lakers are in the same boat as the Spurs - they will get bounced from the playoffs as soon as they run into an uptempo squad with young legs, so if they draw OKC or Denver in round two, they are finished, IMO. The difference between the Lakers & the Spurs is that the Lakers will not have as good a regular season.

I don't know why you think the Lakers, who got older & slower, are better built for the playoffs than Denver, the team that almost took them out in round two last year and who got even more athletic in the offseason

The Lakers better be bumped out by someone in the West, because no one out East has a team that can hang with them. The Heat are not designed to beat that team in a 7 game series, imo.

 

[Knicks411]

that's where I disagree with Hollinger (and you, I guess) - I think the Lakers are in the same boat as the Spurs - they will get bounced from the playoffs as soon as they run into an uptempo squad with young legs, so if they draw OKC or Denver in round two, they are finished, IMO. The difference between the Lakers & the Spurs is that the Lakers will not have as good a regular season.

I don't know why you think the Lakers, who got older & slower, are better built for the playoffs than Denver, the team that almost took them out in round two last year and who got even more athletic in the offseason

Because the reason the Nuggets are good is because they have a lot of depth. (Similar to the Spurs, though to a great degree because the Spurs have more star power than the Nuggets) Depth is a lot less of an issue in the playoffs. In the playoffs the Lakers are going to play Kobe/Dwight/Gasol 40 minutes a game, so the Nuggets going 10 deep isn't going to mean as much.

So I agree the Spurs are not as good in the playoffs, but maybe not for the same reasons. When you run Duncan and Ginobili out there for 32 minutes and the other team has Durant and Westbrook playing 42-44, that's pretty tough to overcome.

Same reason why I think Miami is tougher in the playoffs. They can run their big 3 at you for pretty much the whole game while they are a lot less likely to do that in the regular season.