Our RPI is up to a healthy 43 right now

[Alsacs]

We were lagging low in the RPI but our wins have brought us up into NCAA territory.
Syracuse Orange

RPI 43 NON-CONF. W-L 9-4
vs. RPI TOP 25 0-1
NON-CONF. SOS 87
vs. RPI TOP 50 0-2
NON-CONF. RPI 94
vs. RPI TOP 100 3-3
SOS 71
vs. RPI TOP 150 5-4
OPPONENT SOS 57
NEUTRAL W-L 1-1
vs. RPI SUB 150 7-0
ROAD W-L 2-2

If we get to 19-12 we will be on the bubble, but I think 20-11 and 1 ACC win should get us into the Tournament(assuming we beat two NCAA teams which we should)

 

[senorpalmer]

The team will need to add a signature win or two to get a bid, the rating and record will likely not be enough by itself (you seem to get that). Otherwise SU will be in a similar spot that Seth Greenberg's VTech teams were in a few years back, beating crap ACC teams and little else. There's a chance Iowa or GTech could become a signature win but right now they're not all that notable. Beating Wake, Clemson, BC, Miami, VTech, Pitt over 8 games and nobody else, followed by a theoretical ACCT win over a 'meh' team would make things pretty iffy come selection Sunday. They could probably afford to lose 1 or 2 of those games if they could in turn get a win over Duke, UNC, Lville, UVA, ND or perhaps even NC St.

 

[Trueblue25]

Unc will be ours.

 

[jekelish]

Unc will be ours.

I didn't realize Buffalo was playing UNC this season.

 

[Eric15]

vs. RPI TOP 50 0-2

We desperately have to do something about this. We can rack up all these wins against the worst teams of the ACC, but bottom line we have to crank out a few quality Ws or else our resume will be torn apart.

 

[pearl31]

We desperately have to do something about this. We can rack up all these wins against the worst teams of the ACC, but bottom line we have to crank out a few quality Ws or else our resume will be torn apart.

GT was top 40 rpi before we played them - but then their losing at home to us dropped them

 

[Eric15]

GT was top 40 rpi before we played them - but then their losing at home to us dropped them

They also lost to a relatively lousy Wake Forest team this past weekend which dropped them, as well.

 

[orange2win]

So which Syracuse team won the NIT?

Good challenges could be ahead, even if we do not make it to the Big Dance.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

We desperately have to do something about this. We can rack up all these wins against the worst teams of the ACC, but bottom line we have to crank out a few quality Ws or else our resume will be torn apart.

I'm confident we'll get those good wins. I'm less confident we'll avoid bad losses.

 

[moqui]

that number will continue to climb & this team will go dancing. the thing is, Syracuse is playing pretty well right now. Active on both ends of the court, the defense is strong and the offense is beginning to flow. The loss of Chris limits our ceiling, because with him improving through the year I thought we'd make a deep run come March. In the immediate future, it hurts our depth, but we still played very well without him on Sunday night - best game of the year on both sides of the ball, IMO. Playing so well & continuing to improve such that I believe that in any game in which we avoid foul trouble or injury, we can beat almost anyone. I think (again, barring foul trouble for Roc) we can win at UNC and will beat Louisville in the Dome. I think UVA & Duke are clearly a cut above us even if CM was playing, but we are right there with everyone else in the ACC.

 

[TBCuse11]

So which Syracuse team won the NIT?

Good challenges could be ahead, even if we do not make it to the Big Dance.

All kidding aside, this is one of the few SU teams that I wouldnt be crushed if we were in this. I know its a lesser tourney, obviously, but winning the NIT would be a nice thing for us to get. We arent winning any games, maybe 1, if we get in anyways.

 

[Trueblue25]

I didn't realize Buffalo was playing UNC this season.

What?

 

[cuseguy]

This season is really all about developing the underclassmen for a run next year. It would have been ideal if CMc showed improvement but decided to return. His injury is a setback for him and the team.

 

[Cusefan0307]

that number will continue to climb & this team will go dancing. the thing is, Syracuse is playing pretty well right now. Active on both ends of the court, the defense is strong and the offense is beginning to flow. The loss of Chris limits our ceiling, because with him improving through the year I thought we'd make a deep run come March. In the immediate future, it hurts our depth, but we still played very well without him on Sunday night - best game of the year on both sides of the ball, IMO. Playing so well & continuing to improve such that I believe that in any game in which we avoid foul trouble or injury, we can beat almost anyone. I think (again, barring foul trouble for Roc) we can win at UNC and will beat Louisville in the Dome. I think UVA & Duke are clearly a cut above us even if CM was playing, but we are right there with everyone else in the ACC.

A good comparison for this current team would be 03-04 and 04-05. Those were good, not great SU squads that made the tourney lead by Hak, Gmac, and Pace. I think thats a realistic comparison to our current core of Christmas, Cooney, and Gbinje. Neither team had much else past the top 3.

 

[jncuse]

We were lagging low in the RPI but our wins have brought us up into NCAA territory.
Syracuse Orange

RPI 43 NON-CONF. W-L 9-4
vs. RPI TOP 25 0-1
NON-CONF. SOS 87
vs. RPI TOP 50 0-2
NON-CONF. RPI 94
vs. RPI TOP 100 3-3
SOS 71
vs. RPI TOP 150 5-4
OPPONENT SOS 57
NEUTRAL W-L 1-1
vs. RPI SUB 150 7-0
ROAD W-L 2-2

If we get to 19-12 we will be on the bubble, but I think 20-11 and 1 ACC win should get us into the Tournament(assuming we beat two NCAA teams which we should)

I tend to disagree with your conclusion, but there is a long season left to play out . 19-12 (and I assume 20-13 after the ACC tourney), gives us a minimal shot in my view. I have 20-11 (and 21-12) as the on the bubble number.

At 19-12 our projected RPI is 54 if we beat who we are supposed to. Substitute Duke for one of those wins and it comes in at as an RPI of 49. I used the RPI Wizard for this http://www.rpiforecast.com/cgi-bin/rpiwizard.cgi

Just compare our resume to other team's who are projected to have RPI's in the 40-55 range. Which about half tend to get in. I use the forecast to see how our 20-11 stands up. It's a crapshoot really.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

What we lack is the top 50 victories -- note the forecast are giving us a win over one of the Big 3 ACC at home to get to 20-11. Our projected top 100 record at 6-10 is sort of stinky as well.

Maybe as a group the forecast comes in high right now, so that the 40-55 positions weaken. Just as I see it now, 19-12 would just not seem to be enough.

 

[jncuse]

Alsacs, I did another post just a few minutes, and I am now closer to agreeing with you than an hour ago. I had 20-11 at 50/50, but if you look at the last 4 in last year, I think it's closer to 75-80% that we would get in. Of course that is all dependent on how things mix around the nation as the season goes on. Were not much better than those resumes, but in no way is our resume worse than any of those last 4 either.

 

[senorpalmer]

A good comparison for this current team would be 03-04 and 04-05. Those were good, not great SU squads that made the tourney lead by Hak, Gmac, and Pace. I think thats a realistic comparison to our current core of Christmas, Cooney, and Gbinje. Neither team had much else past the top 3.

Have to disagree with the comparison. Those teams were 5 and 4 seeds, respectively. This team will not end up in that range. Rak has made great improvements this year and has become a fine player, but Warrick was an all-time great at SU. And GMac was a better collegiate guard than anyone on the current roster. I think a good comparison for this team would be more along the lines of 98-99, which had its own nice trio of Thomas, Hart and Blackwell, along with some guys who were green like Allen Griffin and Damone Brown who would end up being fine players later in their careers.

 

[Cheriehoop]

They also lost to a relatively lousy Wake Forest team this past weekend which dropped them, as well.

Wake Forest isn't the Wake Forest of last year. They are competitive. They aren't top tier but also aren't a team that can or should be ignored. New coach in Manning, total shakeup in the roster and no seniors etc. They played Duke, Louisville losing by less than 10 in both and beat GT.

 

[CorduroyG]

theres no way we lose all 3 games at the dome to lville, duke and uva. we'll win at least 1 of those.

 

[Eric15]

They aren't top tier but also aren't a team that can or should be ignored.

Wake did lose at home to Delaware St., but I agree with you that we need to take every team on our schedule extremely seriously especially given the loss of CM.

 

[ImperialOrange]

The team will need to add a signature win or two to get a bid, the rating and record will likely not be enough by itself (you seem to get that). Otherwise SU will be in a similar spot that Seth Greenberg's VTech teams were in a few years back, beating crap ACC teams and little else. There's a chance Iowa or GTech could become a signature win but right now they're not all that notable. Beating Wake, Clemson, BC, Miami, VTech, Pitt over 8 games and nobody else, followed by a theoretical ACCT win over a 'meh' team would make things pretty iffy come selection Sunday. They could probably afford to lose 1 or 2 of those games if they could in turn get a win over Duke, UNC, Lville, UVA, ND or perhaps even NC St.

Except we're a brand name program with a traveling fan base. Your premise is sound but I feel like that is worth $omething to the $election committee.

 

[moqui]

Except we're a brand name program with a traveling fan base. Your premise is sound but I feel like that is worth $omething to the $election committee.

the problem with that theory is that the NCAA also owns the NIT, and sticking a brand name team with a traveling fan base in there can have a larger impact on the bottom line of the little tournament than it would on the big dance

 

[senorpalmer]

Wake Forest isn't the Wake Forest of last year. They are competitive. They aren't top tier but also aren't a team that can or should be ignored. New coach in Manning, total shakeup in the roster and no seniors etc. They played Duke, Louisville losing by less than 10 in both and beat GT.

Last year's Wake team actually beat Duke and did finish 1 game over .500 (this year's team stands at 9-8 currently).

 

[senorpalmer]

Except we're a brand name program with a traveling fan base. Your premise is sound but I feel like that is worth $omething to the $election committee.

Didn't help the team in 07 when they had a very similar tournament resume (22-10, 10-6 in conference, and not many good wins). I don't think the committee thinks about brand name to be honest. Kentucky was 21-11 just two years ago and ended up in the NIT.

 

[longislandcuse]

All kidding aside, this is one of the few SU teams that I wouldnt be crushed if we were in this. I know its a lesser tourney, obviously, but winning the NIT would be a nice thing for us to get. We arent winning any games, maybe 1, if we get in anyways.

Ew, no.