Yes. To land elite transfers you must offer guaranteed starting spot and probably bags of cash. It’s easier to recruit depth out of high school than the portal. That’s not reference to JP - I think he will start.
Also most recruits are transfering for a reason, such as not playing enough, which indicates they aren’t perfect. Few true studs transfer because they play a lot or are heading to the NBA. Also miss out on one-and-done types and stud freshmen who will start. Also risky to wait until Spring to fill your roster. The portal needs to be Plan B, and risk mitigation when you lose players. To your point, fewer unranked kids will be offered scholarships because programs won’t be as willing to risk an unknown given the availability of transfers.