RPI up to #11, BPI up to #7

[bpo57]

More holistic view means

1) Less emphasis on a single number like RPI
2) No over emphasis on conference tourney games. A result in November means as much as a result in March.

Essentially te entire body of work.

So basically its the exact opposite of what you and others are doing ,

Not debating that the Committee doesn't do it that way but the notion that a win in November should count as much as a win in March is beyond goofy.

 

[jncuse]

How do you put Louisville over us if we're fortunate to beat them 2 out if 3?

Because each team played 30 other games.

 

[bpo57]

How do you put Louisville over us if we're fortunate to beat them 2 out if 3?

They finished well ahead of us in the BE.

 

[SoBeCuse]

If I had to guess we are a 3 seed out west if we lose and a 3 seed in the east if we win, with an outside shot at a 2.

Agreed.

 

[ImperialOrange]

5 of those 6 have the chance to win their conference tournaments. Believe it or not there are other tournaments going on.

4 of those 6. MSU and OSU subtract at least 1 since they can't both win.

 

[HarrisonJBounel]

I will happily take a 3. We came to NYC and made significant progress as a team and with the seeding/numbers.

What's nice about being a #3 or #2 instead of a #4 or #5 is that you put off a theoretical matchup with a #1 for one more round if the seedings hold. But yes, more importantly, the wheels are back on the truck, and we are legitimately back in the hunt.

FWIW, we are now #10 in Sagarin, and Louisville is #1. A win tonight would likely put us in the top 8, equivalent to a #2 seed.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm

 

[jordoo]

A win locks up being in the East IMO and thats the most important thing. I don't care if its a 2 or 3 seed as long as its in the east.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

More holistic view means

1) Less emphasis on a single number like RPI
2) No over emphasis on conference tourney games. A result in November means as much as a result in March.

Essentially te entire body of work.

So basically its the exact opposite of what you and others are doing ,

But part of the earlier talk of SU being a 5 was based on poor down the stretch play. So as we erase that stench a more objective view is easier to take..

Secondly conference tourney games mean more than November games in two key ways. They are against much better competition and they are at a neutral site, as apposed to home.

Third, these games are showcasing how valuable Dirty can be to us. A record setting performance in NYC is great pub. Now, the committee probably should view the losses without him in a different light. The boost from Dirty being back should now be larger - kind of highlighted by the BPI over RPI discrepancy. You know they are giving a big boost to Duke for this very reason.

 

[SU2NASA]

Stop trying to make BPI happen ESPN it is never going to happen.

a Mean Girls reference on SyracuseFan. This board is officially closed.

 

[TexanMark]

Rpi 11 + neutral court victory over Ville + BET title = 2 seed.

Science'd.

I just giggled reading that...seems so wrong to call it that.

 

[Madbiker]

As someone pointed out, there is a big difference between being a 5 seed and a 4. I'm not sure there is much difference however between a 3 and a two. At that point, where you play is probably more important than who you play. Just guessing, of course.

From Bracket Science:
1st rd. win %
2 seed - 95%
3 seed - 83%
4 seed - 80%
5 seed - 67%

2nd rd win %
2 seed vs 7 - 71%
3 seed vs 6 - 56%
4 seed vs 5 - 51%

So it's significantly better to be a 4 rather than a 5, a 3 is better than a 4, and a 2 is way better.

 

[Cusefan95]

Not much difference between a 3 and a 2, no. As long as we get up to the 3 seed line, we're fine. Of course, playing well and not getting sent out West as a 3 seed would be nice.

I would be thrilled with a three seed out west with Gonzaga as the one.

 

[All4SU]

From Bracket Science:
1st rd. win %
2 seed - 95%
3 seed - 83%
4 seed - 80%
5 seed - 67%

2nd rd win %
2 seed vs 7 - 71%
3 seed vs 6 - 56%
4 seed vs 5 - 51%

So it's significantly better to be a 4 rather than a 5, a 3 is better than a 4, and a 2 is way better.

Good stuff. Shows what I know.

 

[Alsacs]

To the people who think we are 3 seed without winning tonight which of these teams are we above
1. Indiana
2. Gonzaga
3. Duke
4. Louisville
5. Kansas
6. Georgetown
7. Miami
8. Ohio State
9. Michigan State
10. Florida
11. New Mexico
12. Michigan

We are a 4 seed right now who can move up to a 3 seed with a win tonight.
13. Kansas State playing KU tonight
14. Syracuse playing UL tonight
15. Marquette
16. UCLA playing Oregon tonight

17. Wisconsin playing IU today
18. St. Louis playing Butler today.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Wisconsin is interesting. If they beat IU I could see them getting a 3 seed. Maybe a 2. I think they are a 4 now.

Our resume looks really similar to OSU's.

Wisconsin- 4-5 vs RPI Top 25. 7-7 vs RPI Top 50. 12-9 vs RPI Top 100. Road W/L 5-6. SOS 25.

Ohio State- 3-5 vs RPI Top 25. 6-7 vs RPI Top 50. 11-7 vs RPI Top 100. Road W/L 5-5. SOS 24.

Syracuse- 2-4 vs RPI Top 25. 6-7 vs RPI Top 50. 12-8 vs RPI Top 100. Road W/L 5-5. SOS 6.

 

[ImperialOrange]

To the people who think we are 3 seed without winning tonight which of these teams are we above
1. Indiana
2. Gonzaga
3. Duke
4. Louisville
5. Kansas
6. Georgetown
7. Miami
8. Ohio State
9. Michigan State
10. Florida
11. New Mexico
12. Michigan

We are a 4 seed right now who can move up to a 3 seed with a win tonight.
13. Kansas State playing KU tonight
14. Syracuse playing UL tonight
15. Marquette
16. UCLA playing Oregon tonight

17. Wisconsin playing IU today
18. St. Louis playing Butler today.

IF we win it'll be interesting. Also will need to see how sparty v osu, UF v Bama, and New Mexico v UNLV play out. Too much left to see yet but 6-14 on your list here aren't seperated by much.

 

[jncuse]

But part of the earlier talk of SU being a 5 was based on poor down the stretch play. So as we erase that stench a more objective view is easier to take..

Secondly conference tourney games mean more than November games in two key ways. They are against much better competition and they are at a neutral site, as apposed to home.

Third, these games are showcasing how valuable Dirty can be to us. A record setting performance in NYC is great pub. Now, the committee probably should view the losses without him in a different light. The boost from Dirty being back should now be larger - kind of highlighted by the BPI over RPI discrepancy. You know they are giving a big boost to Duke for this very reason.

1. Syracuse was a 5 seed because of its 4-7 record vs top 50... and when people speculated what it would be if we lost to Pitt it would be 4-8. 5 seed was due to top 50, and had noting to do with streak. In fact if focus on end of scedule the seed would ave been worst.

2. I am consiedering level of competition and site -- just saying timing is irrelevant. I am saying that Michiagn beatin Kansas St and Pitt on a neutral floor in November, is basically equal to Syracuse beating georgetown and Pitt in the BET. They are all sinle results no matter when they are played. Putting BET campions beside your name does not add to your resume in itself. Absolutely, I agree that the BET allows you to gain some big wins quickly.

3.
a) Committee very rarely considers injury. It does not like to play god. Its a consideration that is rarely used, and not for non all stars.
b) Syracuse lost many games with Souterland in lineup at end of year. It also beat Louisville without him. You cant just expect commitee to pick and choose certain games at end of year because he is now hot. Totally goes aainst body of work concept.
c) Where is the big boost for Duke? They are #1 seed if you look at all results, and simply ignore Kelly injury.

EDIT - sorry for two missin keys and need to paste. Need to brin my work keyboard ome.

 

[bpo57]

4 of those 6. MSU and OSU subtract at least 1 since they can't both win.

That's still plenty and I don't think they're likely to punish the loser of that game.

 

[ImperialOrange]

That's still plenty and I don't think they're likely to punish the loser of that game.

Perhaps not but end of the day one of those teams will be 24-8 and if we beat Lville we'll be 27-8. We're already ahead of OSU in RPI and if both SU and OSU win today likely both will pass sparty but OSU wouldn't pass us.

 

[Toga]

More holistic view means

1) Less emphasis on a single number like RPI
2) No over emphasis on conference tourney games. A result in November means as much as a result in March.

Essentially te entire body of work.

So basically its the exact opposite of what you and others are doing ,

Winning the conference tournament of a major conference, on average adds .43 to one's seeding.

 

[bpo57]

Perhaps not but end of the day one of those teams will be 24-8 and if we beat Lville we'll be 27-8. We're already ahead of OSU in RPI and if both SU and OSU win today likely both will pass sparty but OSU wouldn't pass us.

Those two play in the toughest conference in the country. I would imagine the Committee would be inclined to take that into account.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

a) Committee very rarely considers injury. It does not like to play god. Its a consideration that is rarely used, and not for non all stars.
b) Syracuse lost many games with Souterland in lineup at end of year. It also beat Louisville without him. You cant just expect commitee to pick and choose certain games at end of year because he is now hot. Totally goes aainst body of work concept.
c) Where is the big boost for Duke? They are #1 seed if you look at all results, and simply ignore Kelly injury.

EDIT - sorry for two missin keys and need to paste. Need to brin my work keyboard ome.

The Committee has considered injuries before. We hear about it mostly in the negative, when a key player goes down how it can result in a line drop. It is widely considered a possible reason AO's injury report may not have been on the level. SU wanted the one seed and calling him out early may have affected that.

The committe does not need to play god. It just needs to realize a key player was not on the court for two of the losses. One of our top players. Potentially, the BET MVP and record setting 3 pt shooter was missing. That starts to make normal people realize a big part of the team was missing. That is something the committee can factor in. It is part of the reasoning for the BPI and that index now has us at 8.

 

[Garbs]

I think we are a 3 seed and if we win tonight we bump Gtown for a 2 seed

 

[pearl31]

I've quite enjoyed the way bpo and jncuse have become the self-appointed seeding experts on here, and have made sure all of us are aware of it. As if they've been sitting in with the committee and know exactly what is going on. Yeoman's work, I tell you.

 

[jncuse]

The committe does not need to play god. It just needs to realize a key player was not on the court for two of the losses. One of our top players. Potentially, the BET MVP and record setting 3 pt shooter was missing. That starts to make normal people realize a big part of the team was missing. That is something the committee can factor in. It is part of the reasoning for the BPI and that index now has us at 8.

So you really expect the committee to turn a 4-2 record without him to 6-0 or 4-0... despite the fact the team is 8-5 since his return?