SDSU -->Should<-- Win This Game, But...

[Ceerqqq]

Just looking at the numbers, comparing the records, the overall team experience, the demonstrated talent on the rosters, any sober objective mind has to predict an SDSU victory on Friday night based on those variables alone.

As Coach Boeheim has said, they have no weaknesses. They have an array of offensive weapons that is equal to anything we've seen in the best of the teams we've lost to this year. Their defense is also as tough as any we have faced in the ACC. They are as formidable a matchup for us to face in the first round as any that could be imagined.

On paper, it looks quite bleak. What, if anything, do we know about this match up that can give us some hope? I see only one variable that makes me hopeful of a win: SDSU has never face our zone or even any zone comparable to what they'll see. From where I'm sitting, that really is the only variable that offers us a rational basis for hoping to witness a stunning victory.

We can hope to see The Boeheim Zone do it again because we've seen it before. Very good, very talented, very experienced teams facing us in the tournament, who begin to attack the zone when it is firing on all cylinders and they immediately hit a wall of frustration as their passes get picked off.

No, the zone we've seen this year isn't the best we have ever seen (we have no Etan Thomas in the middle of it), but it has continued to improve the more they've played it, as Boeheim has taught them the fine points re: how to anticipate the other teams' efforts to beat it and then exploit them.

That's it, as I see it. The only realistic basis for hope. Either The Boeheim Zone will work its magic again, or we lose. Yes, we've got some offensive ability, but as Quincy has said, our defense is what makes our offense work optimally, and we're gonna need to perform optimally on every level in order for us to pull of a victory over the Aztecs...

...and that is what I am honestly expecting to see happen...

 

[teamco]

"On paper" we may be a the dawg, but but of course that is not where the game is played. I would say our three point shooting is probably the biggest X factor in this game. SDSU has shot well from beyond the arc, but they don't shoot a heck of a lot of them. Now Syracuse is another story. We are not shy about putting up threes and if Friday is one of those magical nights we have seen with some regularity, i.e. our top guns are hot and draining trays, Katy bar the door . . . and that in turn would probably open things up underneath.

I suspect if anything gets us to the next round it will be a combination of our zone being sharp and outside shooting percentage in the roughly 40% area, or higher. Hot shooting from beyond the arc makes up for a lot of other sins, first and foremost will probably be the usual getting out rebounded.

 

[dollarbill44]

SDSU is a very solid team who probably should win based on the facts and the analytics. But to call them "as formidable a matchup" we could ever have imagined is a massive stretch.
But I do love, and share your optimism.

 

[Hoo's That]

To save everyone some time, I copied this from our board and you can feel free to use it as a template to build your own post.

After checking through the other threads, I am really concerned that (team we are facing) presents some unique issues. I am specifically concerned that we do not match up well with (other team’s player). I feel that we (will/will not) have an answer. We always have problems with (big/quick/athletic/long) (guards/forwards,/slashers/three point machines). I hope that we respond like we did against (team we did well against), but I am afraid we will play like we did against (team that beat us). I think if they look at our tape, particularly (some team that beat us badly), they will have the gameplan to make us struggle. They have the type of (offensive/defensive) scheme that gives us fits time and time again. Too bad that (recruit who went elsewhere) did not sign with us. We could really use him for this game. I read (famous SyracuseFan poster’s) posts and I think that really summed it up well. If you look at those analytics, we will (crush/be crushed/grind it out and pull away). Of course if (any of a number of refs) is there, we know that (Q/Buddy/other key player) will start the game with 2 fouls and pick up two more before the first time out. It’s like playing 5 on 8. But all things considered, if we score more points then they do, we should come out on top.

Win or lose, I (will/will not) be surprised, because I think the we are (under achieving/over achieving/on par) with my expectations for the year.

 

[Orangezoo]

To save everyone some time, I copied this from our board and you can feel free to use it as a template to build your own post.

After checking through the other threads, I am really concerned that (team we are facing) presents some unique issues. I am specifically concerned that we do not match up well with (other team’s player). I feel that we (will/will not) have an answer. We always have problems with (big/quick/athletic/long) (guards/forwards,/slashers/three point machines). I hope that we respond like we did against (team we did well against), but I am afraid we will play like we did against (team that beat us). I think if they look at our tape, particularly (some team that beat us badly), they will have the gameplan to make us struggle. They have the type of (offensive/defensive) scheme that gives us fits time and time again. Too bad that (recruit who went elsewhere) did not sign with us. We could really use him for this game. I read (famous SyracuseFan poster’s) posts and I think that really summed it up well. If you look at those analytics, we will (crush/be crushed/grind it out and pull away). Of course if (any of a number of refs) is there, we know that (Q/Buddy/other key player) will start the game with 2 fouls and pick up two more before the first time out. It’s like playing 5 on 8. But all things considered, if we score more points then they do, we should come out on top.

Win or lose, I (will/will not) be surprised, because I think the we are (under achieving/over achieving/on par) with my expectations for the year.

So essentially in a couple years we will be sending personal bots as proxies on message boards...

 

[EnviroSciGuy]

Ditch the analytics this year. Small sample size makes these comparisons more apples to oranges than usual. They appear to be UVA-lite, which will be challenging but given how our team played in their last game, I am nothing but optimistic. I'm just thrilled we're having a tourney (and in it!), to be honest.

 

[TinyManInside]

So essentially in a couple years we will be sending personal bots as proxies on message boards...

Who says that's not already happening?

 

[CorduroyG]

there will be nothing “stunning” about syracuse winning this game, come on. you think san diego st has those #s playing in the acc?

 

[Orange Barrel]

To save everyone some time, I copied this from our board and you can feel free to use it as a template to build your own post.

After checking through the other threads, I am really concerned that (team we are facing) presents some unique issues. I am specifically concerned that we do not match up well with (other team’s player). I feel that we (will/will not) have an answer. We always have problems with (big/quick/athletic/long) (guards/forwards,/slashers/three point machines). I hope that we respond like we did against (team we did well against), but I am afraid we will play like we did against (team that beat us). I think if they look at our tape, particularly (some team that beat us badly), they will have the gameplan to make us struggle. They have the type of (offensive/defensive) scheme that gives us fits time and time again. Too bad that (recruit who went elsewhere) did not sign with us. We could really use him for this game. I read (famous SyracuseFan poster’s) posts and I think that really summed it up well. If you look at those analytics, we will (crush/be crushed/grind it out and pull away). Of course if (any of a number of refs) is there, we know that (Q/Buddy/other key player) will start the game with 2 fouls and pick up two more before the first time out. It’s like playing 5 on 8. But all things considered, if we score more points then they do, we should come out on top.

Win or lose, I (will/will not) be surprised, because I think the we are (under achieving/over achieving/on par) with my expectations for the year.

I’m surprised this template was authored by a UVA fan. Apparently he was not made aware that Huff is allowed to grab the rim, put the ball in play at his leisure and climb over his opponent’s back at will. Add in the pretty boy coach factor and you never lose. Not that I’m bitter.

 

[Syracuslove]

“They are as formidable a matchup for us to face in the first round as any that could be imagined”

No? If anything it’s the best matchup we could’ve gotten given our seeding. San Diego State is the worst 6 seed. Maybe BYU is worse, though they actually looked really good in the one game I saw of them all year (the finals loss against Gonzaga). But much rather SDSU over Texas tech and USC, and it’s not even close.

 

[ORRange]

Just looking at the numbers, comparing the records, the overall team experience, the demonstrated talent on the rosters, any sober objective mind has to predict an SDSU victory on Friday night based on those variables alone.

As Coach Boeheim has said, they have no weaknesses. They have an array of offensive weapons that is equal to anything we've seen in the best of the teams we've lost to this year. Their defense is also as tough as any we have faced in the ACC. They are as formidable a matchup for us to face in the first round as any that could be imagined.

On paper, it looks quite bleak. What, if anything, do we know about this match up that can give us some hope? I see only one variable that makes me hopeful of a win: SDSU has never face our zone or even any zone comparable to what they'll see. From where I'm sitting, that really is the only variable that offers us a rational basis for hoping to witness a stunning victory.

We can hope to see The Boeheim Zone do it again because we've seen it before. Very good, very talented, very experienced teams facing us in the tournament, who begin to attack the zone when it is firing on all cylinders and they immediately hit a wall of frustration as their passes get picked off.

No, the zone we've seen this year isn't the best we have ever seen (we have no Etan Thomas in the middle of it), but it has continued to improve the more they've played it, as Boeheim has taught them the fine points re: how to anticipate the other teams' efforts to beat it and then exploit them.

That's it, as I see it. The only realistic basis for hope. Either The Boeheim Zone will work its magic again, or we lose. Yes, we've got some offensive ability, but as Quincy has said, our defense is what makes our offense work optimally, and we're gonna need to perform optimally on every level in order for us to pull of a victory over the Aztecs...

...and that is what I am honestly expecting to see happen...

Colgate has great numbers but.....The Aztecs were opened as 1.5 point favorites by people and computers that know way more than us. If they are formidable than we arent far behind.

 

[Cusefan0307]

We are 3 point underdogs. We aren’t playing Gonzaga.

 

[Orangezoo]

Who says that's not already happening?

On that note - any post that has less than 10 likes was clearly a proxy. All others - all me.

 

[dasher]

This titan lost twice to Utah State. They lost to BYU by 10 If we were playing either of those teams, JB would be saying the same stuff.

 

[teamco]

To save everyone some time, I copied this from our board and you can feel free to use it as a template to build your own post.

After checking through the other threads, I am really concerned that (team we are facing) presents some unique issues. I am specifically concerned that we do not match up well with (other team’s player). I feel that we (will/will not) have an answer. We always have problems with (big/quick/athletic/long) (guards/forwards,/slashers/three point machines). I hope that we respond like we did against (team we did well against), but I am afraid we will play like we did against (team that beat us). I think if they look at our tape, particularly (some team that beat us badly), they will have the gameplan to make us struggle. They have the type of (offensive/defensive) scheme that gives us fits time and time again. Too bad that (recruit who went elsewhere) did not sign with us. We could really use him for this game. I read (famous SyracuseFan poster’s) posts and I think that really summed it up well. If you look at those analytics, we will (crush/be crushed/grind it out and pull away). Of course if (any of a number of refs) is there, we know that (Q/Buddy/other key player) will start the game with 2 fouls and pick up two more before the first time out. It’s like playing 5 on 8. But all things considered, if we score more points then they do, we should come out on top.

Win or lose, I (will/will not) be surprised, because I think the we are (under achieving/over achieving/on par) with my expectations for the year.

I like it, a Mad Libs approach to posting (am I dating myself?). Maybe a good app/scalable business to be built out of this.

 

[Madbiker]

To save everyone some time, I copied this from our board and you can feel free to use it as a template to build your own post.

After checking through the other threads, I am really concerned that (team we are facing) presents some unique issues. I am specifically concerned that we do not match up well with (other team’s player). I feel that we (will/will not) have an answer. We always have problems with (big/quick/athletic/long) (guards/forwards,/slashers/three point machines). I hope that we respond like we did against (team we did well against), but I am afraid we will play like we did against (team that beat us). I think if they look at our tape, particularly (some team that beat us badly), they will have the gameplan to make us struggle. They have the type of (offensive/defensive) scheme that gives us fits time and time again. Too bad that (recruit who went elsewhere) did not sign with us. We could really use him for this game. I read (famous SyracuseFan poster’s) posts and I think that really summed it up well. If you look at those analytics, we will (crush/be crushed/grind it out and pull away). Of course if (any of a number of refs) is there, we know that (Q/Buddy/other key player) will start the game with 2 fouls and pick up two more before the first time out. It’s like playing 5 on 8. But all things considered, if we score more points then they do, we should come out on top.

Win or lose, I (will/will not) be surprised, because I think the we are (under achieving/over achieving/on par) with my expectations for the year.

Great post. Cracked me up. So true.

 

[Forza Azzurri]

Just looking at the numbers, comparing the records, the overall team experience, the demonstrated talent on the rosters, any sober objective mind has to predict an SDSU victory on Friday night based on those variables alone.

As Coach Boeheim has said, they have no weaknesses. They have an array of offensive weapons that is equal to anything we've seen in the best of the teams we've lost to this year. Their defense is also as tough as any we have faced in the ACC. They are as formidable a matchup for us to face in the first round as any that could be imagined.

On paper, it looks quite bleak. What, if anything, do we know about this match up that can give us some hope? I see only one variable that makes me hopeful of a win: SDSU has never face our zone or even any zone comparable to what they'll see. From where I'm sitting, that really is the only variable that offers us a rational basis for hoping to witness a stunning victory.

We can hope to see The Boeheim Zone do it again because we've seen it before. Very good, very talented, very experienced teams facing us in the tournament, who begin to attack the zone when it is firing on all cylinders and they immediately hit a wall of frustration as their passes get picked off.

No, the zone we've seen this year isn't the best we have ever seen (we have no Etan Thomas in the middle of it), but it has continued to improve the more they've played it, as Boeheim has taught them the fine points re: how to anticipate the other teams' efforts to beat it and then exploit them.

That's it, as I see it. The only realistic basis for hope. Either The Boeheim Zone will work its magic again, or we lose. Yes, we've got some offensive ability, but as Quincy has said, our defense is what makes our offense work optimally, and we're gonna need to perform optimally on every level in order for us to pull of a victory over the Aztecs...

...and that is what I am honestly expecting to see happen...

I think it is very hard to discern how good a team really is at the end of the year that does not play in a P5 conference.

They obviously have a solid squad, having beaten UCLA but they have also lost to other tournament-bound teams and it is almost impossible to tell if they have gotten better, stayed the same, or regressed compared to when they beat UCLA.

We, on the other hand, IMHO, are a much better team than earlier in the season. We are more disciplined both offensively and defensively and we are getting additional contributions from players that were not contributing earlier in the season.

We are still a flawed team. My biggest concerns at this point are injuries and shooting. Our defense is better but is not good enough to carry us and that means we have to play well offensively to win. Our first poor shooting night and we are going home.

And to really make a cinderella run, we need BB, or someone else, to become Glen Rice.

I think we can beat, or lose to, our first three opponents.

I think the Illini are simply a bridge too far unless we have a miraculous shooting night.

If we continue playing like we did in our last four games, I think we beat SDSU and give WVU all they can handle but I think WVU is both really good, really well-coached and battle-tested and I think we lose a close game.

Obviously, I sincerely hope I am wrong about the last part of that last sentence.

 

[Orangemen]

I think it is very hard to discern how good a team really is at the end of the year that does not play in a P5 conference.

They obviously have a solid squad, having beaten UCLA but they have also lost to other tournament-bound teams and it is almost impossible to tell if they have gotten better, stayed the same, or regressed compared to when they beat UCLA.

We, on the other hand, IMHO, are a much better team than earlier in the season. We are more disciplined both offensively and defensively and we are getting additional contributions from players that were not contributing earlier in the season.

We are still a flawed team. My biggest concerns at this point are injuries and shooting. Our defense is better but is not good enough to carry us and that means we have to play well offensively to win. Our first poor shooting night and we are going home.

And to really make a cinderella run, we need BB, or someone else, to become Glen Rice.

I think we can beat, or lose to, our first three opponents.

I think the Illini are simply a bridge too far unless we have a miraculous shooting night.

If we continue playing like we did in our last four games, I think we beat SDSU and give WVU all they can handle but I think WVU is both really good, really well-coached and battle-tested and I think we lose a close game.

Obviously, I sincerely hope I am wrong about the last part of that last sentence.

I agree with this.

We are not an ideal opponent for SDSU. While the resume is solidly 11 seed, the play of late is more in the 6-8 seed level. So if you’re a 6 seed, getting a first round matchup against a 6-8 seed level team is not ideal.

That being said, this team is an 11 seed for a reason. They could come out and play poorly, we’ve seen it before.

So it depends on which team shows up. If it’s the recent team, the SDSU is in for a heck of a fight, and could easily lose the game. If they come out flat and play poorly, SDSU will get a relatively smooth win.

Im optimistic and am expecting the good play to continue. I think covid messed this team up, and now they are finally in a rhythm and are getting contributions from some guys who weren’t playing much earlier in the year.

For me, it’s all gravy at this point, given how grim this season looked at times. Although, I am greedy, so I’m looking forward to getting some wins in Indy.

 

[Tony DeFranco]

Our last 10 games and the first 15 are entirely different teams - Girard jacking threes playing hero ball thinking he is playing in his 6 feet and under high school league is long long gone - I don't know much about SDST but I do know that they played nobody all season long - and while the ACC had a down year I am certain our guys matched up against numerous kids that will be playing in the NBA soon

 

[Niastri]

I think of this as a team where our starting center was injured all year... But we have Edwards back now. Playing him instead of Dolezaj at center makes us a much better team. Richmond instead of Girard also makes us a better team.

If we had those two playing their best all year, are we selected as an 11 seed? I think we would have had at least three more wins, as we don't get destroyed in the boards. Yes, I think the upgrade at center when Edwards is playing is that significant.

With the additional (hypothetical) wins, all quad 1, are we a 6 seed instead of an 11? Probably.

SDSU got screwed in their first round matchup based on the team Syracuse is today.

 

[DangerZone]

Just looking at the numbers, comparing the records, the overall team experience, the demonstrated talent on the rosters, any sober objective mind has to predict an SDSU victory on Friday night based on those variables alone.

As Coach Boeheim has said, they have no weaknesses. They have an array of offensive weapons that is equal to anything we've seen in the best of the teams we've lost to this year. Their defense is also as tough as any we have faced in the ACC. They are as formidable a matchup for us to face in the first round as any that could be imagined.

On paper, it looks quite bleak. What, if anything, do we know about this match up that can give us some hope? I see only one variable that makes me hopeful of a win: SDSU has never face our zone or even any zone comparable to what they'll see. From where I'm sitting, that really is the only variable that offers us a rational basis for hoping to witness a stunning victory.

We can hope to see The Boeheim Zone do it again because we've seen it before. Very good, very talented, very experienced teams facing us in the tournament, who begin to attack the zone when it is firing on all cylinders and they immediately hit a wall of frustration as their passes get picked off.

No, the zone we've seen this year isn't the best we have ever seen (we have no Etan Thomas in the middle of it), but it has continued to improve the more they've played it, as Boeheim has taught them the fine points re: how to anticipate the other teams' efforts to beat it and then exploit them.

That's it, as I see it. The only realistic basis for hope. Either The Boeheim Zone will work its magic again, or we lose. Yes, we've got some offensive ability, but as Quincy has said, our defense is what makes our offense work optimally, and we're gonna need to perform optimally on every level in order for us to pull of a victory over the Aztecs...

...and that is what I am honestly expecting to see happen...

For most teams, playing Syracuse in the tournament is like facing a knuckle ball pitcher in the playoffs for the first time all year.

 

[AlaskaSU]

I think it is very hard to discern how good a team really is at the end of the year that does not play in a P5 conference.

They obviously have a solid squad, having beaten UCLA but they have also lost to other tournament-bound teams and it is almost impossible to tell if they have gotten better, stayed the same, or regressed compared to when they beat UCLA.

We, on the other hand, IMHO, are a much better team than earlier in the season. We are more disciplined both offensively and defensively and we are getting additional contributions from players that were not contributing earlier in the season.

We are still a flawed team. My biggest concerns at this point are injuries and shooting. Our defense is better but is not good enough to carry us and that means we have to play well offensively to win. Our first poor shooting night and we are going home.

And to really make a cinderella run, we need BB, or someone else, to become Glen Rice.

I think we can beat, or lose to, our first three opponents.

I think the Illini are simply a bridge too far unless we have a miraculous shooting night.

If we continue playing like we did in our last four games, I think we beat SDSU and give WVU all they can handle but I think WVU is both really good, really well-coached and battle-tested and I think we lose a close game.

Obviously, I sincerely hope I am wrong about the last part of that last sentence.

Over the last several games our offensive efficiency is greater than theirs. They had trouble scoring. If we out rebound them we win. In other words, If QG and Kadary are good to go we probably win.

 

[Forza Azzurri]

I agree with this.

We are not an ideal opponent for SDSU. While the resume is solidly 11 seed, the play of late is more in the 6-8 seed level. So if you’re a 6 seed, getting a first round matchup against a 6-8 seed level team is not ideal.

That being said, this team is an 11 seed for a reason. They could come out and play poorly, we’ve seen it before.

So it depends on which team shows up. If it’s the recent team, the SDSU is in for a heck of a fight, and could easily lose the game. If they come out flat and play poorly, SDSU will get a relatively smooth win.

Im optimistic and am expecting the good play to continue. I think covid messed this team up, and now they are finally in a rhythm and are getting contributions from some guys who weren’t playing much earlier in the year.

For me, it’s all gravy at this point, given how grim this season looked at times. Although, I am greedy, so I’m looking forward to getting some wins in Indy.

Yup. You encapsulated it perfectly. We are an 11 that is playing at the level of a 6.

We are probably on par with SDSU but would have to play over our heads to beat a protected seed.

 

[Mr Aztec]

There are a lot of so called experts that say the Aztecs should win and there are a lot of so called experts picking the Orange. If the Aztecs are shooting well, they are tough to beat. I am sure the same for SU. Three keys for an Aztec win: 1) Arop needs to play, has had issues with vertigo all year. You do not hear much about him, but he is similar to a gnat you cannot get rid of. 2) either Shakel, Gomez or Seiko need to get hot from deep. 3) The Cuse may decide to deny Shakel or Mitchell the ball. If so, Pulliam needs to hit his shots. I think it is is going to be a grind it out game in the 60s. It just depends on which team executes better. I think the Aztecs will eek out a win. Have the heart paddles close by as this is going to be a good close game. I will need to pound a couple hazy IPA s before the game to calm the nerves. I might need to have one right now!

Wish the game was tonight. Tired of waiting!!

 

[shermstheman]

There are a lot of so called experts that say the Aztecs should win and there are a lot of so called experts picking the Orange. If the Aztecs are shooting well, they are tough to beat. I am sure the same for SU. Three keys for an Aztec win: 1) Arop needs to play, has had issues with vertigo all year. You do not hear much about him, but he is similar to a gnat you cannot get rid of. 2) either Shakel, Gomez or Seiko need to get hot from deep. 3) The Cuse may decide to deny Shakel or Mitchell the ball. If so, Pulliam needs to hit his shots. I think it is is going to be a grind it out game in the 60s. It just depends on which team executes better. I think the Aztecs will eek out a win. Have the heart paddles close by as this is going to be a good close game. I will need to pound a couple hazy IPA s before the game to calm the nerves. I might need to have one right now!

Wish the game was tonight. Tired of waiting!!

I’ve read so much and much is contradictory but maybe you can confirm something- the Aztecs are a good rebounding team but not so proficient at offensive rebounds. That’s been a killer for the Orange all year. If the Aztecs don’t play volleyball at the offensive end the Orange’s chances seem much better.