Shafer's history

[K Otto XLIV]

He is 8-0 vs teams that end the year outside the Top 65 in the Sagarin. The average score in those games was SU 32.5 ppg to Opp 8.25 ppg. Teams we play this year that were worse than 65th last season (yes I know year to year is not the same thing): CMU (101), Wake (125), USF (147), RI (231). If none of those teams make a big jump this year, I would expect SU to win those games rather easily. There is no excuse for losing to these teams IMO, hello 4-0.

He is 0-13 vs teams in the Top 55. The average score in those games was SU 11.6 ppg to Opp 33.1 ppg. Teams we play this year that ended in the Top 55: Clemson (13), LSU (14), FSU (16), UL (30), BC (44), NC St (48), UVA (51). Of those teams BC, NC St, and UVA could fall out of the Top 55. The other 4 teams I would expect SU to lose the games and for it not to be close. It would be a shock to beat any of those top 4 teams IMO, hello 4-4 with 3 TBD.

He is 2-2 vs teams in the 56-65 range. The average score in those games was SU 22.25 ppg to Opp 31.5 ppg. The games we won were close the games we lost were not close. Teams we play this year that ended in the 56-65 range: Pitt. They could go up or down in the rankings this year so they are a TBD so we are at 4-4 with 4 TBD.

Really the swing games IMO is UVA and Pitt. We NEED to win one of those to have a successful season. If we go into NC St with a 6 game losing streak, I think it will be too much to overcome. Same with BC if we have a 7 game losing streak. It is unrealistic to expect a win vs both UVA and Pitt but I think we can win one of them. We need to be a 5-5 going into the last 2 to realistically get into a Bowl.

Another interesting stat: when SU gives up 17 points or less in regulation we are 9-2 under Shafer. When we give up more than 17 we are 1-13. That is more of an indication of a bad O than a D problem. You cannot expect to hold teams to 17 points or less. Shafer needs to find an O asap.

 

[Macky44]

Fantastic look at history there.

 

[Pyle]

That 0-13 stat is sobering as hell. Good thing I'm brewing an extra batch this season.

 

[CuseCactus]

Wow. 0-13 vs top 55 with scores average of 11.6 to 33.1. Most sobering stats I've seen to date. Puts things in perspective.

Would be interesting to see the comp with Marrone.

 

[rosconey]

wow- and people want him to keep his job - 0-13 vs top 55 is as bad as it can get-

i hope the new ad has better judgement on football coaching hires than the bad doctor

 

[javadoc]

He is 8-0 vs teams that end the year outside the Top 65 in the Sagarin. The average score in those games was SU 32.5 ppg to Opp 8.25 ppg. Teams we play this year that were worse than 65th last season (yes I know year to year is not the same thing): CMU (101), Wake (125), USF (147), RI (231). If none of those teams make a big jump this year, I would expect SU to win those games rather easily. There is no excuse for losing to these teams IMO, hello 4-0.

He is 0-13 vs teams in the Top 55. The average score in those games was SU 11.6 ppg to Opp 33.1 ppg. Teams we play this year that ended in the Top 55: Clemson (13), LSU (14), FSU (16), UL (30), BC (44), NC St (48), UVA (51). Of those teams BC, NC St, and UVA could fall out of the Top 55. The other 4 teams I would expect SU to lose the games and for it not to be close. It would be a shock to beat any of those top 4 teams IMO, hello 4-4 with 3 TBD.

He is 2-2 vs teams in the 56-65 range. The average score in those games was SU 22.25 ppg to Opp 31.5 ppg. The games we won were close the games we lost were not close. Teams we play this year that ended in the 56-65 range: Pitt. They could go up or down in the rankings this year so they are a TBD so we are at 4-4 with 4 TBD.

Really the swing games IMO is UVA and Pitt. We NEED to win one of those to have a successful season. If we go into NC St with a 6 game losing streak, I think it will be too much to overcome. Same with BC if we have a 7 game losing streak. It is unrealistic to expect a win vs both UVA and Pitt but I think we can win one of them. We need to be a 5-5 going into the last 2 to realistically get into a Bowl.

Another interesting stat: when SU gives up 17 points or less in regulation we are 9-2 under Shafer. When we give up more than 17 we are 1-13. That is more of an indication of a bad O than a D problem. You cannot expect to hold teams to 17 points or less. Shafer needs to find an O asap.

Incredible. Any competent functioning offense will get us to a solid program baseline from which to build.

 

[Millhouse]

He is 8-0 vs teams that end the year outside the Top 65 in the Sagarin. The average score in those games was SU 32.5 ppg to Opp 8.25 ppg. Teams we play this year that were worse than 65th last season (yes I know year to year is not the same thing): CMU (101), Wake (125), USF (147), RI (231). If none of those teams make a big jump this year, I would expect SU to win those games rather easily. There is no excuse for losing to these teams IMO, hello 4-0.

He is 0-13 vs teams in the Top 55. The average score in those games was SU 11.6 ppg to Opp 33.1 ppg. Teams we play this year that ended in the Top 55: Clemson (13), LSU (14), FSU (16), UL (30), BC (44), NC St (48), UVA (51). Of those teams BC, NC St, and UVA could fall out of the Top 55. The other 4 teams I would expect SU to lose the games and for it not to be close. It would be a shock to beat any of those top 4 teams IMO, hello 4-4 with 3 TBD.

He is 2-2 vs teams in the 56-65 range. The average score in those games was SU 22.25 ppg to Opp 31.5 ppg. The games we won were close the games we lost were not close. Teams we play this year that ended in the 56-65 range: Pitt. They could go up or down in the rankings this year so they are a TBD so we are at 4-4 with 4 TBD.

Really the swing games IMO is UVA and Pitt. We NEED to win one of those to have a successful season. If we go into NC St with a 6 game losing streak, I think it will be too much to overcome. Same with BC if we have a 7 game losing streak. It is unrealistic to expect a win vs both UVA and Pitt but I think we can win one of them. We need to be a 5-5 going into the last 2 to realistically get into a Bowl.

Another interesting stat: when SU gives up 17 points or less in regulation we are 9-2 under Shafer. When we give up more than 17 we are 1-13. That is more of an indication of a bad O than a D problem. You cannot expect to hold teams to 17 points or less. Shafer needs to find an O asap.

good post, thanks

 

[Millhouse]

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...al=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=pass_td

kent state, uconn, FIU, miami (oh) and tulane are the only schools that have lost more games where their defense gives up 17 or less the last couple years

ps highly recommend this query tool, i think you'll like it http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/play-index/

 

[rosconey]

can we start making up positive stats -PLEASE
a positive lie is better than facts after 15 years imho

 

[K Otto XLIV]

Wow. 0-13 vs top 55 with scores average of 11.6 to 33.1. Most sobering stats I've seen to date. Puts things in perspective.

Would be interesting to see the comp with Marrone.

To be fair the Top 40 teams have blown us out. The 40-55 teams have generally been close games. He is 0-6 with average score of 14.5 to 25.5 so those games were mainly on the O. The Top 40 games have been a mess all around going 0-7 with a score of 9.1 to 39.6 per game.

 

[TheCusian]

can we start making up positive stats -PLEASE a positive lie is better than facts after 15 years imho

My training is failing.

No - it's fine to bring facts about how bad we've been. That's helpful. Honest.

My problem has always been ascribing past failures to future teams without making the case why. You know what I mean, right ?

 

[Millhouse]

He is 8-0 vs teams that end the year outside the Top 65 in the Sagarin. The average score in those games was SU 32.5 ppg to Opp 8.25 ppg. Teams we play this year that were worse than 65th last season (yes I know year to year is not the same thing): CMU (101), Wake (125), USF (147), RI (231). If none of those teams make a big jump this year, I would expect SU to win those games rather easily. There is no excuse for losing to these teams IMO, hello 4-0.

He is 0-13 vs teams in the Top 55. The average score in those games was SU 11.6 ppg to Opp 33.1 ppg. Teams we play this year that ended in the Top 55: Clemson (13), LSU (14), FSU (16), UL (30), BC (44), NC St (48), UVA (51). Of those teams BC, NC St, and UVA could fall out of the Top 55. The other 4 teams I would expect SU to lose the games and for it not to be close. It would be a shock to beat any of those top 4 teams IMO, hello 4-4 with 3 TBD.

He is 2-2 vs teams in the 56-65 range. The average score in those games was SU 22.25 ppg to Opp 31.5 ppg. The games we won were close the games we lost were not close. Teams we play this year that ended in the 56-65 range: Pitt. They could go up or down in the rankings this year so they are a TBD so we are at 4-4 with 4 TBD.

Really the swing games IMO is UVA and Pitt. We NEED to win one of those to have a successful season. If we go into NC St with a 6 game losing streak, I think it will be too much to overcome. Same with BC if we have a 7 game losing streak. It is unrealistic to expect a win vs both UVA and Pitt but I think we can win one of them. We need to be a 5-5 going into the last 2 to realistically get into a Bowl.

Another interesting stat: when SU gives up 17 points or less in regulation we are 9-2 under Shafer. When we give up more than 17 we are 1-13. That is more of an indication of a bad O than a D problem. You cannot expect to hold teams to 17 points or less. Shafer needs to find an O asap.

0 for anything is bad, i'm not defending him too much here but 4 games against FSU and Clemson is a really big chunk of that.

i don't know what minnesota's or BC's ranking were a couple years agowas but it probably wasn't that much worse than 55. 55 might be cherry picking (unintentionally, not accusing you of it)

he might not be as abysmal playing teams in 20 to 60 range

ps we were posting at the same time about this, i see your post about it now.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Good post just goes to show that you need to score points to win, white knuckling playing the game the way your grandfather did won't work plain and simple.

 

[K Otto XLIV]

can we start making up positive stats -PLEASE
a positive lie is better than facts after 15 years imho

The positive is that we should go 4-0 vs RI, Wake, CMU, and USF winning those games rather easily. Also we should win 1-2 from UVA, Pitt, NC St, and BC.

 

[Millhouse]

Good post just goes to show that you need to score points to win, white knuckling playing the game the way your grandfather did won't work plain and simple.

it's impressive that he's had 11 games holding opponents to 17 or less

he's tied for 32nd there. considering that the out of conference schedule has been tougher than some schools, that's not bad

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...al=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=pass_td

tied for 8th in road games holding opponents to 17 or less the last two years. 1 more than Alabama (!)

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...al=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=pass_td

 

[K Otto XLIV]

0 for anything is bad, i'm not defending him too much here but 4 games against FSU and Clemson is a really big chunk of that.

i don't know what minnesota's or BC's ranking were a couple years agowas but it probably wasn't that much worse than 55. 55 might be cherry picking (unintentionally, not accusing you of it)

he might not be as abysmal playing teams in 20 to 60 range

ps we were posting at the same time about this, i see your post about it now.

His best Ws were #58 and #64 both won at the last moments of the game.

His only losses outside the Top 50 were to #52, #55, #61, and #65. The two in the 50s were close games, while the two in the 60s were blowout losses.

Injuries had something to do with W/L and score last year. It also helped the teams we lost to achieve a higher ranking. The 4 games against mediocre competition should be winnable this year. Based on history the other 8 games shouldn't be close one way or the other.

 

[TheCusian]

it's impressive that he's had 11 games holding opponents to 17 or less he's tied for 32nd there. considering that the out of conference schedule has been tougher than some schools, that's not bad http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...al=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=pass_td tied for 8th in road games holding opponents to 17 or less the last two years. 1 more than Alabama (!) http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...al=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=pass_td

Dear Orange God of Football (a lesser deity than Orange God of Basketball) -

Can we please have this Lester guy catch lightning in a bottle? Also can you help Hunt throw accurately?

- Signed the huddled masses

 

[AccuRater]

Nice analysis.

 

[donniesyracuse]

Dear Orange God of Football (a lesser deity than Orange God of Basketball) -

Can we please have this Lester guy catch lightning in a bottle? Also can you help Hunt throw accurately?

- Signed the huddled masses

Also, please give our head coach an understanding of probabilities.

 

[TheCusian]

Also, please give our head coach an understanding of probabilities.

Not near as important - but what the heck - throw that in too.

 

[K Otto XLIV]

Using 2013's ranking to predict 2014 we should have had 4 Ws, 5 Ls, and had 3 toss ups. If we were healthy we could have won the Duke or NC St game.

 

[TheCusian]

Using 2013's ranking to predict 2014 we should have had 4 Ws, 5 Ls, and had 3 toss ups. If we were healthy we could have won the Duke or NC St game.

And that is only confirmed by what we saw on the field.

I know the numbers don't confirm this - but Maryland should have been a W. We had a burst of offense that game that should have yielded a W, IMO.

 

[Fjoinkay]

He is 8-0 vs teams that end the year outside the Top 65 in the Sagarin. The average score in those games was SU 32.5 ppg to Opp 8.25 ppg. Teams we play this year that were worse than 65th last season (yes I know year to year is not the same thing): CMU (101), Wake (125), USF (147), RI (231). If none of those teams make a big jump this year, I would expect SU to win those games rather easily. There is no excuse for losing to these teams IMO, hello 4-0.

He is 0-13 vs teams in the Top 55. The average score in those games was SU 11.6 ppg to Opp 33.1 ppg. Teams we play this year that ended in the Top 55: Clemson (13), LSU (14), FSU (16), UL (30), BC (44), NC St (48), UVA (51). Of those teams BC, NC St, and UVA could fall out of the Top 55. The other 4 teams I would expect SU to lose the games and for it not to be close. It would be a shock to beat any of those top 4 teams IMO, hello 4-4 with 3 TBD.

He is 2-2 vs teams in the 56-65 range. The average score in those games was SU 22.25 ppg to Opp 31.5 ppg. The games we won were close the games we lost were not close. Teams we play this year that ended in the 56-65 range: Pitt. They could go up or down in the rankings this year so they are a TBD so we are at 4-4 with 4 TBD.

Really the swing games IMO is UVA and Pitt. We NEED to win one of those to have a successful season. If we go into NC St with a 6 game losing streak, I think it will be too much to overcome. Same with BC if we have a 7 game losing streak. It is unrealistic to expect a win vs both UVA and Pitt but I think we can win one of them. We need to be a 5-5 going into the last 2 to realistically get into a Bowl.

Another interesting stat: when SU gives up 17 points or less in regulation we are 9-2 under Shafer. When we give up more than 17 we are 1-13. That is more of an indication of a bad O than a D problem. You cannot expect to hold teams to 17 points or less. Shafer needs to find an O asap.

This is a 2-year sample. In his two years as a head coach HCSS is 10-2 against teams Sagarin ranks 56th or lower. Top 55 teams he is 0-13. Let's hope this season SU becomes top 55, and beats a few of those teams. The third year is a charm. Go Cuse!!

 

[Ringostar57]

Nice analysis.

Yes, it's always retentive.

 

[donniesyracuse]

Not near as important - but what the heck - throw that in too.

I don't think I agree. Sustaining a drive instead of punting, scoring a touchdown instead kicking a field goal; these things can change a game dramatically.