Short bench & recruiting - Catching Up to Jimmy ??? | Syracusefan.com

Short bench & recruiting - Catching Up to Jimmy ???

newmexicuse

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Everybody knows that Jimmy will only go 7 to 8 deep.

I think almost every top 100 kid will want to get some PT as part of a rotation, and the many will want starting opportunities.

With this year's team so deep, and our lack of recruiting success todate this year, one has to asked the question as to how many kids are scared away by what they perceive will be a lack of opportunity to get on the court.
 

BlackSquirrels

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Everybody knows that Jimmy will only go 7 to 8 deep.

I think almost every top 100 kid will want to get some PT as part of a rotation, and the many will want starting opportunities.

With this year's team so deep, and our lack of recruiting success todate this year, one has to asked the question as to how many kids are scared away by what they perceive will be a lack of opportunity to get on the court.

I doubt the short bench is catching up to recruting.

SU has recruited highly touted classes the last two years despite having relatively experienced rosters. Now ask yourself which of the below scenarios is more likely.

1. After many years, recruits are just now starting to realize that Boeheim plays a seven-man rotation and selecting other schools.

2. Boeheim and his staff have narrowed their focus for the class of 2012 to a select few guys and may end up striking out with those guys for various reasons.

IMO #2 seems much more likely.
 

Victory Lap

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I doubt the short bench is catching up to recruting.

SU has recruited highly touted classes the last two years despite having relatively experienced rosters. Now ask yourself which of the below scenarios is more likely.

1. After many years, recruits are just now starting to realize that Boeheim plays a seven-man rotation and selecting other schools.

2. Boeheim and his staff have narrowed their focus for the class of 2012 to a select few guys and may end up striking out with those guys for various reasons.

IMO #2 seems much more likely.
I choose #3 - all of the above. those aren't mutually exclusive scenarios.
 

SWC75

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Everybody knows that Jimmy will only go 7 to 8 deep.

I think almost every top 100 kid will want to get some PT as part of a rotation, and the many will want starting opportunities.

With this year's team so deep, and our lack of recruiting success todate this year, one has to asked the question as to how many kids are scared away by what they perceive will be a lack of opportunity to get on the court.

Yeah, the short bench is such a recent development, it's just starting to effect recruting now. :rolleyes:

By the way, that's not a short bench. That's average.
 

newmexicuse

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No, the short bench is not a new development, but a short bench with such a deep roster is a new development, and that may be what is scaring kids off. And no, I do not buy that Jimmy's short bench is "average". Many teams with less talent then we usually have go 8 to 10 deep, at least throughout the regular season. It is only in tournaments that we really see less bench use.
 

AZOrange

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I think in the last few months Boeheim has forgotton how to recruit... :bang:
 

pfister1

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Yeah, the short bench is such a recent development, it's just starting to effect recruting now. :rolleyes:

By the way, that's not a short bench. That's average.

I also am not sure what everyone is up in arms about? In evaluating recruiting I think you all are looking at the wrong thing. It seems that everyone is looking at our recruiting class and grading it like Scout or ESPN would...how many 5 stars are signed up?? That is the wrong way to evaluate recruiting. I guess if you are trying to treat recruiting as a competition and determine a winner that is the only way to try to do it, but if you look at recruiting not as a competition but as a means to build a team in order to compete we should be evaluating it based what the programs needs are this year and whether are recruiting has addressed those needs.

To me our current needs seem to be primarily a traditional SF to take over KJ's spot in the event that Fair or Southerland don't develop the skills necessary to play there for us and that is I all I really see as a need this year. You can argue about guys for down the road, but most very high caliber players don't want to go to a situation where they are going to be the guy their Junior year. Right now we have a McDonalds All American at Center (Melo), another that will probably be our backup PF/C (Christmas) and one that will be a back up guard (MCW). We also have a guy who will be a senior and four year starter at one of the guard positions (Triche) with a kid who people thought could possibly have been a McD's AA (Waiters) and a USA Basketball Qualifier (Cooney) also at the guard position. Where are we going to recruit these kids to play?

I guess in addition to taking guys to fill needs you'll always take guys like a Drummond or some other program changing type player and you'll always take that guy regardless of the make up of your roster, but there aren't that many of those guys out there and we've probably only landed a handful in JB's entire tenure (Pearl, Coleman, Owens, Melo...maybe Wallace). Maybe this is what the staff saw when they looked at DaJuan Coleman early on, because we don't truly have a pressing need at a position he will play. Incidentally, I don't think he has developed into a program changer - - meaning a guy you look at in High School and say, If you land him, you'll build your team around him. Could he come in and be an upgrade over guys we have? Possibly. Could he just as easily sit behind the guys that are already here and will be more experienced than him? Definitely. Accordingly, while I would prefer to have him than not have him, I no longer really see him going elsewhere, if he does, as a huge blow to the program.

It is not as though we have historically pulled in McDonalds AA every single year. Our recruiting has ebbed and flowed with some really strong hauls and some leaner years. Obviously coming off of the probation there were some consecutive leaner years, but for the most part its been a year or two with decent to really good classes then a year with not much. This year is one of those years following on several highly successful years where our incoming class may be lean. Unless you're moving guys out yearly, you can't bring in lots of players every year.
 

OttoinGrotto

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No, the short bench is not a new development, but a short bench with such a deep roster is a new development, and that may be what is scaring kids off.
Well said.
 

orangefan13

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Dion, Triche, MCW Cooney and Mookie slotted to come back next year.
Rak, Keita and maybe Melo slotted to come back.
Fair and Southerland slotted to come back next year.

Thats 9 guys slotted to return all with experience, and two guys at all positions outside of Center which DC is hogging most of the recruting from.

But thing is we will most likely be down to 5 maximum returning for 2013 and I would count on 4 more likely because we are going to lose Mookie Triche, Southerland and probably atleast Melo by the end of his Jr year. Better to go with a sophmore then a freshmen for 2013. Recruits should notice that.
 

rstone7727

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Yes, I think success and having great players is finally starting to "catch up" to JB... :rolleyes:
 

BlackSquirrels

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I choose #3 - all of the above. those aren't mutually exclusive scenarios.

That's certainly true--the two scenarios aren't mutually exclusive. However, how would you weigh the two factors I listed? Boeheim's substitution philosophy has been consistent for many years. I find it hard to believe recruits are just starting to recognize that.

Additionally, recruits have been selecting schools where playing time is available for many years as well.
 

Victory Lap

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That's certainly true--the two scenarios aren't mutually exclusive. However, how would you weigh the two factors I listed? Boeheim's substitution philosophy has been consistent for many years. I find it hard to believe recruits are just starting to recognize that.

Additionally, recruits have been selecting schools where playing time is available for many years as well.

New Mexicuse has already done a good job of synthesizing the two.

The point is:
1) Most kids want to play, not sit the bench
2) Based on our depth and JB's 7.5 man rotation, most kids realize they won't play for a year or two, and that disincentivizes them from coming here.
3) Our depth means that JB is looking for something specific, not just any decent player, but a particular type of player to fill a current or future need.
4) Thus, the recruiting pool shrinks twice: (1) we lose the kids who want PT, and (2) we reject recruits that we might otherwise take but-for our depth.
5) Thus, poor recruiting class (which is really not that bad).
 

BlackSquirrels

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New Mexicuse has already done a good job of synthesizing the two.

The point is:
1) Most kids want to play, not sit the bench
2) Based on our depth and JB's 7.5 man rotation, most kids realize they won't play for a year or two, and that disincentivizes them from coming here.
3) Our depth means that JB is looking for something specific, not just any decent player, but a particular type of player to fill a current or future need.
4) Thus, the recruiting pool shrinks twice: (1) we lose the kids who want PT, and (2) we reject recruits that we might otherwise take but-for our depth.
5) Thus, poor recruiting class (which is really not that bad).

Fair enough, based on #5 I think we actually agree more than not. Not getting recruits due to a fairly deep and talented roster isn't much of a problem.

The way newmexicuse phrased the the question ("catching up to Jimmy") made me think that he was asking if SU is somehow uniquely affected by current circumstances. Basically, the question seems to be if SU is having trouble gaining commitments because paths to immediate playing time aren't obvious. To me, the answer is "of course, just like any other program in a similar situation would."
 

Victory Lap

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Fair enough, based on #5 I think we actually agree more than not. Not getting recruits due to a fairly deep and talented roster isn't much of a problem.

The way newmexicuse phrased the the question ("catching up to Jimmy") made me think that he was asking if SU is somehow uniquely affected by current circumstances. Basically, the question seems to be if SU is having trouble gaining commitments because paths to immediate playing time aren't obvious. To me, the answer is "of course, just like any other program in a similar situation would."
Agreed. No need to generalize beyond this year.
 

OttoMets

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New Mexicuse has already done a good job of synthesizing the two.

The point is:
1) Most kids want to play, not sit the bench
2) Based on our depth and JB's 7.5 man rotation, most kids realize they won't play for a year or two, and that disincentivizes them from coming here.

Maybe, but most top-end recruits are confident (or arrogant) enough to think that they're certain to find minutes for themselves. One doesn't become a very good basketball player without such faith in his abilities. I see this logically: we have three bigs who are likely to command 100% of the minutes over the next three years. A recruit sees this as a challenge: there are three guys who I'm going to beat out for minutes.

That's likely what caused problems for Dion last year; expectations did not match reality.
 

SWC75

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In the late 80's JB actually skipped a year, (1987-88), and recruited no one because he had eveyrthing he needed for a couple years and the following year's class of recruits was supposed to be better. But of course in those days, guys didn't jump to the pros like they do now.
 

fanfanclubclub

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SU has recruited highly touted classes the last two years despite having relatively experienced rosters. Now ask yourself which of the below scenarios is more likely.

That's not true.

The 2009-2010 team wasn't nearly as congested from the perspective of a recruit.

The '09-10 season started the year with:

1 returning Sr starter who was not first round material (Arinze),
1 returning SR moving from role player to starter (Andy) who was not first round material,
1 returning JR moving from role player to starter (Rick) who was not first round material,
1 JR transfer player who was 1st round material, and a bunch of role players and mildly-recruited freshman with no experience:
with a total of zero McD all-americans, zero Wooden preseason candidates, and zero five star recruits, zero Chris Paul/Durant camp stars, etc.

That sort of talent is not going to scare away anyone: and it didn't. FAB, Dion, CJ, and Keita all signed up. The '10-11 team was pretty loaded, especially up front, so RAK's commit was a bit of a surprise, but MCW is going to play so there was nothing to scare him away.

This year's club is more loaded than any SU team in recent history. Yes, we say that every year (lately), but this year it is actually true. We have two McDs up front, and a SO Keita who might be better than both. We have a Wooden candidate at the 3, who is joined by SO Fair who might be our best player. Southerland is the best player not to crack the rotation is a very long time. We will have at least one, possibly two, Wooden candidates in the backcourt, backed up by our third McD's all american. Highly recruited guards Waiters, Cooney, and Jones will fight for scrap minutes.

This year's club has much more talent, depth, and log jams than in previous years. That being said, if Grant commits next week, are we really that far behind schedule? Hopefully we get Grant and DC soon, keep our options open for a big PG, and otherwise pocket the scholie for the Noel Extravaganza.
 

Victory Lap

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Maybe, but most top-end recruits are confident (or arrogant) enough to think that they're certain to find minutes for themselves. One doesn't become a very good basketball player without such faith in his abilities. I see this logically: we have three bigs who are likely to command 100% of the minutes over the next three years. A recruit sees this as a challenge: there are three guys who I'm going to beat out for minutes.

That's likely what caused problems for Dion last year; expectations did not match reality.
Maybe. Or maybe they (read: their mommies and daddies) demand PT, and the coach says he can't promise that, so they go elsewhere.
 

OttoMets

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Maybe. Or maybe they (read: their mommies and daddies) demand PT, and the coach says he can't promise that, so they go elsewhere.
I can think of one small forward in particular who fit that description.
 

Niastri

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No, the short bench is not a new development, but a short bench with such a deep roster is a new development, and that may be what is scaring kids off. And no, I do not buy that Jimmy's short bench is "average". Many teams with less talent then we usually have go 8 to 10 deep, at least throughout the regular season. It is only in tournaments that we really see less bench use.

Duke and North Carolina and Kansas and Kentucky and perhaps a few others all have All American recruits sitting on their bench. They sometimes run off All American recruits because they have better ones coming in. Syracuse is going to hit a glass ceiling with recruits, unless it doesn't. We don't know if we are going to suddenly (and perpetually) be able to draw top 10 class after top 10 class. But we have been around the top 10 to 15 in class ranking for about 10 years (according to RSCI). We aren't far, but one hit on a top recruit in a potential down year is the difference between perennial Final Four favorite and perennial top 20 team. Our short bench isn't going to hurt us, any more than it hurts the other big boys who get top players every recruiting season. For instance, while we got top players in the last two classes, if we had gotten Demarcus Cousins instead of Riley in the 2009 class, would Syracuse have been playing in the Final Four spring of 2010? What if our wing recruit in 2007 was Kevin Durant instead of Mike Jones?

http://www.rscihoops.com/

2011 9th Christmas
2010 10th Melo
2009 20th Riley
2008 1st Greene
2007 19th Harris
2006 12th Devendorf

Going back as far as our Forth, Edelin, Pace and Warrick class, we have had good classes, even great ones from time to time. Hitting on those one or two difference maker recruits would have been huge... BUT who remembers the guy who was ranked ahead of Cousins at the same position that year? I was surprised, considering how recently that class came through.

The short bench doesn't hurt us, being just outside the top 5 programs and failing to close on the best of the best in most of our years is what hurts us.
 

orangefan13

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I don't believe for one minute jimmy only goes 7 deep this year. I see us going 10 deep.
Xmas will play as a All American unless he is Real raw. And unless MCW is as raw and slow as Mookies freshmen year(which I doubt) then we add the 10th man in the backcourt. If you play 4 plus minutes in some big east games that aren't blowouts then your part of the roation .3 .5 man or not.

Southerland most defenetly was part of the lineup last year. He helped us beat Gtown on the road and Notre Dame at home and was huge in those games.
 

albanycuse

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10 deep lol. You talking about the depth of a pool or something ?
 

orangefan13

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Of the 6 in the backline who is the odd man out then???
It won't be Southerland hes the second oldest of the 6, and will get minutes as a Jr upperclassmen because we will need him as a senior. Consensus here is Xmas is going to play but he Defenetly won't bench Keita.

The only way we go less then 9 deep is MCW, Mookie, and Cooney don't play come big east and we have a injury on top of it. I could see guys sitting out 3-4 games maybe like Southerland last year, but they are still part of the rotation.
 

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