So I don't know that any of us know enough about this team to do some sort of meaningful preview, but consider this more a collection of thoughts and questions that we may see answered or playing out over the next few months.
High ceiling, low floor for this group
Bunch of new faces, new coach, new systems on both sides of the ball, tough preconference schedule ... oh, and the coach is a first-time head coach replacing a legend. I feel like there's a scenario where this team is back in the tournament in March ... but also a scenario where things really go south and we're well under .500 and struggling to find wins. I mean, I don't think the latter will happen but I also haven't seen anything so far that makes me think this is a team that is back in the top 25 this season. Just feels like a lot of work to do.
It was time for JB to retire, but let's give the man his due
JB is gone and, it appears, so is the zone for the most part. That's a good thing for all parties and there's no need to look backwards. That said, as much as it annoyed people here sometimes, JB's goal was to win college basketball games. He was happy when kids developed into pros and expanded their games, but he wasn't doing that at the expense of winning. The zone, sitting on the ball with lead and 4 mins left, short rotations, telling certain kids they can't shoot, etc. Those annoyed fans through the years but they also won a bunch of games. I love the idea of playing a deeper rotation, pushing for more athleticism, and playing aggressive man-2-man ... but none of those things guarantee any success. Will be interesting to watch.
Defense will be the key
I think we've seen enough to know that shooting at least won't be the strength of this team. However, we've also seen enough to know that we should be capable of putting the ball in the basket at an OK clip. We also know we are deeper and more athletic than the past few years (not sure how people are saying this is the most athletic team we've had ... that's nuts). BUT, what we need to know is how tough will this defense be? It has to be our identity. We're not going to consistently outscore and outrun teams. We're not that good. We have to be able to defend and what we've seen so far looks to be a pretty pedestrian, straight-up man-2-man defense. We'll need to see something more sophisticated, particularly as the competition gets tougher (which it will very quickly).
Rotation thoughts
Like I said, hard to really make a prediction based on all the unknowns, but this should be an entertaining group. They should get better instead of plateau or get worse as the season moves along. I actually think all the guys I have not playing huge roles -- Carey, one of Bell/Taylor, maybe even Benny if he's struggling, Hima, etc. -- are potentially capable of contributing. So we'll have to wait and see. But, either way, fun to see a different product on the floor and here's hoping I'm pleasantly surprised come March!
High ceiling, low floor for this group
Bunch of new faces, new coach, new systems on both sides of the ball, tough preconference schedule ... oh, and the coach is a first-time head coach replacing a legend. I feel like there's a scenario where this team is back in the tournament in March ... but also a scenario where things really go south and we're well under .500 and struggling to find wins. I mean, I don't think the latter will happen but I also haven't seen anything so far that makes me think this is a team that is back in the top 25 this season. Just feels like a lot of work to do.
It was time for JB to retire, but let's give the man his due
JB is gone and, it appears, so is the zone for the most part. That's a good thing for all parties and there's no need to look backwards. That said, as much as it annoyed people here sometimes, JB's goal was to win college basketball games. He was happy when kids developed into pros and expanded their games, but he wasn't doing that at the expense of winning. The zone, sitting on the ball with lead and 4 mins left, short rotations, telling certain kids they can't shoot, etc. Those annoyed fans through the years but they also won a bunch of games. I love the idea of playing a deeper rotation, pushing for more athleticism, and playing aggressive man-2-man ... but none of those things guarantee any success. Will be interesting to watch.
Defense will be the key
I think we've seen enough to know that shooting at least won't be the strength of this team. However, we've also seen enough to know that we should be capable of putting the ball in the basket at an OK clip. We also know we are deeper and more athletic than the past few years (not sure how people are saying this is the most athletic team we've had ... that's nuts). BUT, what we need to know is how tough will this defense be? It has to be our identity. We're not going to consistently outscore and outrun teams. We're not that good. We have to be able to defend and what we've seen so far looks to be a pretty pedestrian, straight-up man-2-man defense. We'll need to see something more sophisticated, particularly as the competition gets tougher (which it will very quickly).
Rotation thoughts
- I think there's a chance this is a much smaller rotation than people think. I like the potential of Carey and Patterson, but I don't think we'll see much of either. I guess Hima has a chance but not sure he fits what we're doing. I could see one of Bell/Taylor getting squeezed. I don't know what to think about Benny. I don't know how healthy Chance will be. All that together means this could be a much shorter rotation than people think. 7/7.5 might be where we ultimately land. If it's 8+ great, but i could see it being pretty short when games really matter
- Two years in and my question on Benny is the same: What is he? I mean, the theory of Benny is great -- he uses his athleticism and shooting to be a factor on offense (maybe some decent passing as well) and flies around using his length and athleticism on defense and on the glass. The reality of Benny is, will he do any of these things? My guess is this: The days of thinking Benny will create his own offense and be a big factor with his athleticism feel like they are gone. But can he be a guy who hustles, battles, is intense and runs the floor? That's my hope. I'm less concerned with his numbers specifically and more concerned with hustle and aggressiveness. Thought he had really tough time defensively in the one scrimmage (he's late off the floor defensively all the time). Offense was interesting -- he looks real comfortable with that fade-away mid-range, but that's ultimately a low-percentage shot and his threes looked flat. He's largely a non-factor off the ball. He's nowhere near physical enough on a consistent basis. He's a key for us but I'm not feeling real optimistic.
- Cuffe and Quadir may be a bigger part of what we're doing than many people think. The best compliment I can give Cuffe is he was 1 of 6 in our second exhibition game and I still thought he contributed in a positive way. He has no doubt -- in his own mind -- that he belongs and he's intent on being a factor in all facets of the game. I love those two things even if it can lead to some bad decisions or lack of control (couple ugly turnovers in the first exhibition). Quadir has a ton of energy and length and good athleticism. Again, there are some holes here and he will be frustrating at times ... but he makes things happen on the floor. If you're ranking our guys, Judah is a clear 1, Brown is a clear 2 and then some combination of JJ, Copeland, Cuffe and maybe McLeod (maybe?) probably round out the top 6. And yes, I do think this means we may see a decent dose of effectively 4-guard lineups, maybe even with Brown at the 5.
- Taylor/Bell. These two are inextricably linked at this point and they both have the same question, so far as I'm concerned. Each has some ability and some skills that could help this team (shooting not the least among them). Taylor has the more well-rounded game -- has some strength that allows him to play a little bigger but can move his feet to allow him to hang as a guard. Can put the ball on the deck a little to create offense and can shoot coming off screens. Bell is mostly a spot-up shooter (though that hasn't translated consistently enough to be as big a weapon as we'd like) but with athleticism that could allow him to be a factor in open floor and on the defensive end. BUT, neither guy brings enough consistently for me to consider them givens as huge pieces in our rotation. They will get their opportunities but Taylor needs to be able to assert himself on the game a bit more and Bell has to continue to work hard to be something more than just a shooter (thought he worked hard on defense vs. St. Rose). My prediction is that one emerges as a key rotation piece but not both. Would love to be wrong.
- Is McLeod in M2M really going to happen? There's something here but McLeod is not a guy who can even pretend to stay in front of anyone on the perimeter. We can try to hedge and play some drop coverage in m2m with him, but I worry he'll be almost unplayable with how well most teams shoot. I'm thinking he plays a bunch but I wonder if it will mean, long-term, that we see a bit more zone (maybe not a traditional 2-3, but a zone of some sort) than people think in order to get him on the floor to take advantage of his rim protection and ability to dive to the rim.
- Brown and Judah are excellent. JJ will be a factor. Hope Brown is healthy but he and Judah are studs. JJ is weird and seems like shooting will be a struggle. That said, he's an excellent athlete who has found a way to score and be a factor thus far. I expect he'll continue to get a bunch of minutes going forward.
Like I said, hard to really make a prediction based on all the unknowns, but this should be an entertaining group. They should get better instead of plateau or get worse as the season moves along. I actually think all the guys I have not playing huge roles -- Carey, one of Bell/Taylor, maybe even Benny if he's struggling, Hima, etc. -- are potentially capable of contributing. So we'll have to wait and see. But, either way, fun to see a different product on the floor and here's hoping I'm pleasantly surprised come March!
