Sports Gambling Thread

[bpo57]

I lost two teasers today as I had Philly + 7.5. Normally you want that 7 plus the hook but now u have to factor in the analytics crowd. Dougie P is all about the analytics so he goes for 2 with 20 seconds left down 17-9 and there goes the teaser.

Setting aside my misfortune, the problem with the analytics crowd is that context is lost on them. Philly didn't move the ball all day - had no short yardage RB (Howard out), was missing two pro bowlers along the OL and their three best wide receivers, and their QB was having a bad game. Their probability of converting a two pointer was MUCH less than your typical NFL team. Didn't have an impact on the outcome but it was a really dumb decision given the context. .

 

[STEVEHOLT]

I lost two teasers today as I had Philly + 7.5. Normally you want that 7 plus the hook but now u have to factor in the analytics crowd. Dougie P is all about the analytics so he goes for 2 with 20 seconds left down 17-9 and there goes the teaser.

Setting aside my misfortune, the problem with the analytics crowd is that context is lost on them. Philly didn't move the ball all day - had no short yardage RB (Howard out), was missing two pro bowlers along the OL and their three best wide receivers, and their QB was having a bad game. Their probability of converting a two pointer was MUCH less than your typical NFL team. Didn't have an impact on the outcome but it was a really dumb decision given the context. .

analytics in the wrong hands is dangerous

 

[STEVEHOLT]

Denver ruined my 4 team 7 pt teaser .. Nola tried REAL HARD.. but they covered by 0.5..

Denver’s Allen looked like today was his first day playing QB .. not in the NFL .. I mean ever

I had browns , Nola, Seahawks ... which was my original three teamer but I got greedy and added the 4th for nearly +200

 

[STEVEHOLT]

All cowboys fans pissed at Garrett kicking the Fg down 7.. all those who bet on Dallas -6 are rejoicing

 

[bpo57]

All cowboys fans pissed at Garrett kicking the Fg down 7.. all those who bet on Dallas -6 are rejoicing

Count me among the latter. But it's an NFL game so I'm just waiting for the brutal loss. I'm up over 70% in the colleges for November but the NFL is a torture chamber.

 

[Alsacs]

Had an amazing Sunday for once.

Bucs, 49ers and Jets made me nice wins. Typically this year I have been killing it on Saturday and sucking on Sunday.

 

[BuffOrange]

So much for fading the Seattle square action; didn't realize what a mash unit the Eagles were.
The Jets spread & $line sprinkle was nice though. Every week I'm on them it seems like.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

So much for fading the Seattle square action; didn't realize what a mash unit the Eagles were.
The Jets spread & $line sprinkle was nice though. Every week I'm on them it seems like.

seattle +1 and ravens -3 or -3.5..two lines that made no sense to me at all...supposed smart money coming hard on eagles and rams...and yet it never made any sense ..sometimes joe q public is right

 

[STEVEHOLT]

That line swung like four points this morning

which also made no sense because most of the key injuries were know for days

 

[STEVEHOLT]

Lmao at the following analysis of the ravens / rams game which i heard from several "sharp" sources. jackson would be limited against the Rams because Rams get pressure from the inside lineman (donald) and thus Jackson won't be able to run up the middle...LOOLLLLLLL

lest you think i using hindsight glasses, i had Ravens -3 as one of my favorite picks this week... if you scoll back you'll see.

 

[bpo57]

seattle +1 and ravens -3 or -3.5..two lines that made no sense to me at all...supposed smart money coming hard on eagles and rams...and yet it never made any sense ..sometimes joe q public is right

The notion of the "sharps" is one of the most overrated aspects of sports gambling. I'll listen to bookmakers on VSIN talking about where the sharps are putting their money and invariably they're wrong.

 

[BuffOrange]

seattle +1 and ravens -3 or -3.5..two lines that made no sense to me at all...supposed smart money coming hard on eagles and rams...and yet it never made any sense ..sometimes joe q public is right

The notion of the "sharps" is one of the most overrated aspects of sports gambling. I'll listen to bookmakers on VSIN talking about where the sharps are putting their money and invariably they're wrong.

They all loved Denver too. Ya I mean NFL lines are so efficient that the squares are going to win on sides just as often. The sharps' edge is largely on in-game stuff and shopping the best lines thru the week.

 

[bpo57]

They all loved Denver too. Ya I mean NFL lines are so efficient that the squares are going to win on sides just as often. The sharps' edge is largely on in-game stuff and shopping the best lines thru the week.

I like to check the college lines immediately on Sunday evening. Quite often they will post lines that will eventually move 3-4 points. After a while these get kind of easy to spot at the outset. Makes for some nice value plays as well as the chance to middle a few outcomes. Far more of these opportunities in college than in the NFL.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

They all loved Denver too. Ya I mean NFL lines are so efficient that the squares are going to win on sides just as often. The sharps' edge is largely on in-game stuff and shopping the best lines thru the week.

When all is said and done...the difference between sharp and square is really a couple percentage points ..

I love the “motivation” handicaps where these Jack asses think they can determine what team is going to try harder. sometimes it’s obvious .. but for example last night a recurring theme was “must win for rams so they’ll be more motivated”

well it’s not like it was a bad spot for Baltimore .. they’re trying to get the 1 seed and in general have a chip on their shoulder ... so now they’re trying to say the Rams will win or cover just because they’ll try harder ? Seriously ? Why didn’t they try harder before if That was all that was required ?

 

[Alsacs]

College football betting is all about finding the teams with talent advantage.
Spreads are covered pretty easily by the good teams.
I rode Ohio State for 8 straight weeks before finally losing a point spread with them.

In pro football betting I sucked early because I bet favorites. I have adjusted the last month and taken underdogs and done well in pro betting.

Taking the points is smart in the NFL as teams aren’t consistent week to week and in the college games find favorites you like and ride them. College teams cover a lot easier than pro teams.
Just my 2 cents.

I am taking Lions +2, Bills + 7 and Saints -7 on Thursday.

 

[Alsacs]

I can’t believe I am doing this but I think the Bears -3.5 might be a good bet.
Something called David Blough is starting at QB for Detroit.

 

[orange79]

I can’t believe I am doing this but I think the Bears -3.5 might be a good bet.
Something called David Blough is starting at QB for Detroit.

By the skin of your teeth. Happy Thanksgiving.

 

[Alsacs]

By the skin of your teeth. Happy Thanksgiving.

When it was 17-7 I was so pissed at myself.
I am rolling over my winnings from this game New Orleans -7.

 

[rrlbees]

I can’t believe I am doing this but I think the Bears -3.5 might be a good bet.
Something called David Blough is starting at QB for Detroit.

-3.5? that line ended at -7 today.

 

[Alsacs]

-3.5? that line ended at -7 today.

I got it at 3.5.

 

[rrlbees]

I got it at 3.5.

It was even Detroit -1 at first.

 

[Alsacs]

I barely won my night bet.
Saints special teams wanted to make Saints better sweat.
2-0 on the day.

I got VPI -3 and Washington -7 tomorrow.

 

[orangenauburn]

I got it at 3.5.

I got it at -4.5 (sad face)

 

[bpo57]

I had Ole Miss on the ML (they were two point dogs btw) last night against MSU in the Egg Bowl. Ole Miss scores on a TD pass with 0:04 left in the game to make the score 21-20 MSU. After scoring the TD the Ole Miss receiver imitates OBJ with the dog urinating on the fire hydrant routine and gets flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct. That pushes the PAT back 15 yards and consequently the kick is missed and MSU wins 21-20. I lost my money line bet and didn't really mind because it was justice in a way. That play perfectly encapsulated the current era athlete in beautiful fashion - a) look at me and b) let's disrespect the opponent. What an @ss-clown - well at least he's on all of the highlight reels this morning. lol

 

[STEVEHOLT]

I had Ole Miss on the ML (they were two point dogs btw) last night against MSU in the Egg Bowl. Ole Miss scores on a TD pass with 0:04 left in the game to make the score 21-20 MSU. After scoring the TD the Ole Miss receiver imitates OBJ with the dog urinating on the fire hydrant routine and gets flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct. That pushes the PAT back 15 yards and consequently the kick is missed and MSU wins 21-20. I lost my money line bet and didn't really mind because it was justice in a way. That play perfectly encapsulated the current era athlete in beautiful fashion - a) look at me and b) let's disrespect the opponent. What an @ss-clown - well at least he's on all of the highlight reels this morning. lol

that was insane .. on ESPN they showed a highlight of another ole miss guy doing the SAME celebration from a couple years ago..

Some of these athletes are certifiable cretins