Sports Gambling Thread
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jncuse
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Using my rationales for the groups above that worked quite well yesterday (7-4-1, and 26-12 overall) and 8-0 (23-10 overall)
Memphis at Wichita St (+5)
Liberty at Louisiana Tech (-2.5)
I don't expect these trends to last much longer as teams get adapted to road, and KP's tend to reach equilibriums for non P6 teams. I'll ride it into this week.
Memphis at Wichita St (+5)
Liberty at Louisiana Tech (-2.5)
I don't expect these trends to last much longer as teams get adapted to road, and KP's tend to reach equilibriums for non P6 teams. I'll ride it into this week.
jncuse
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So how does it work in NY. Can you not bet on any teams based in that state - or is it just college teams? Could you get a Secure VPN and use one of the international betting sites? Not even sure if that is easily feasible, since I think you would need to find a betting site that doesn't operate in NY either.
I know in Ontario, which has provincially regulated betting as well, we can do pro teams and minor league hockey teams based in Ontario, but I know that junior hockey which is popular enough here can't be bet on (or I don't see any lines for it). Nobody cares enough about college sports here to have betting markets on them.
kirbivore
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NY rules state you can't bet on NY college teams in the licensed sports betting operators. I think your phone is geotagged so the only way I've been able to bet SU games is to make a run to the PA border (about 1 hr. for me), which I did when SU got pasted by FSU in football this past season. To make the trip worth it I bet 1K on FSU. Years ago I did offshore and I'd rather not do that now. I work with folks from Utica so one of them I'm sure has a bookie connection from that mobbed up city.
jncuse
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Do bookies still do -110 as the standard, or do they take a bit more?
BuffOrange
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Find another one if so. Like 90ft being too much to beat out a ground ball, so is 11:10. Only two things that haven't changed in 100 years.
When I had a bookie, which was years ago there was no -110 it was all evens. But this was around 2000 last time i used one. things have changed.
Now even some bigger books are going -115 on some bets..
Speaking of odds. Say you like GB to win the NFC you can get around 10-1
But if you bet them at +375 vs 49rs as 10 pts dogs and then roll that at even +3 +135 dogs vs anyone you can get make 18-1.. and they might be even more than +3.
Futures are easier but you lose a ton of value..
Now even some bigger books are going -115 on some bets..
Speaking of odds. Say you like GB to win the NFC you can get around 10-1
But if you bet them at +375 vs 49rs as 10 pts dogs and then roll that at even +3 +135 dogs vs anyone you can get make 18-1.. and they might be even more than +3.
Futures are easier but you lose a ton of value..
jncuse
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If it was even ( -100) instead of -110, how did the books make any money?
I must be missing something here.
Bar customers?
Interest charges on those who were in the hole?
they won because people are bad bettors.
I mean the best of bettors only get it right 55%ish .
I would think the avg local bookie isnt getting hit with everyone over 50%
Being a bookie you need to win more than 50% of the time to make up for being stiffed and of course all the time you spend being the book.
as I said this was 20+ yrs ago when I was using the local Book.. But there was no Vig.
I’m sure you were, but it’s difficult to understand why anyone would want run an operation like that.
yeah.. made me happy cause it was easy to track bets..
kirbivore
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Lucky win today. Last night I put in a bet for the total on today's matinee Magic/Knicks game. I thought I selected OVER 222. I look this morning and see I pressed the button for UNDER 222. I say "phluck it" that it must be fate and I don't cash out and reverse. Magic 98 Knicks 94. For tonight's NFL game Tampa team total over 21.5.
jncuse
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So I went 1-1 in the above games on Sunday, and then 2-0 for qualifying games on Monday -- Merrimack at CCSU and Southern at Bethune Cookman.
See post #1394 for the why's and who behind this . I'm not sure if this lucky streak will remain but will keep riding it until I get a negative period of days. I expect top teams to struggle in their first few road conference tests of the year, and it worked last year - then some sort of equilibrium will occur.
So games for tonight (Pick the home team)
Group 1 (23-11 since I started Jan 6th): 6 Games (you can check for yourself the 6 Top 25 playing on the road tonight against unranked opponents)
Group 2, which is top non P6 conference teams on the road, either in top 25 or leading their conference in KP (29-13)
Utah St at New Mexico (-5.5)
Samford at Western Carolina (-1.5)
Note there is some overlap in the groups for non P6 teams in the top 25 (like Utah St tonight).
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jncuse
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Great for those making bets.
Still very confused how the bookie made money, since a basic heads or tails strategy will be 50%.
kirbivore
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I'll roll with you on the top 25 games tonight (FanDuel odds as of 2:41 PM EST)
Indiana +9.5 (-110) vs. #2 Purdue
Cincinnati -2.5 (-112) vs. #19 TCU (old school system play)
Kansas St. -1.5 (-105) vs. #9 Baylor (old school system play)
Oklahoma St. +6.5 (-102) vs. #3 Kansas
Penn St. +5.5 (-105) vs. #11 Wisconsin
New Mexico +5.5 (-120) vs. #16 Utah St.
not going nuts so 1/2 unit on each
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jncuse
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I had the opposite bad luck in the Sunday Night game.
Didn’t cost me much money ( $25, plus a wasted free bet) but I’m pretty sure my site screwed me… the principle of what happened irks me.
I had a free bet, and decided to use it Sunday Night. Bet on Detroit -3.5 … then they said odds changed so the bet could not be processed. Very common as the game was just about to start. As the game was about to start I quickly decided to use free bet (so I thought) on the Rams winning outright.
But it turns out my initial bet did process, so they actually charged me $25 for the second bet.
Here’s the problem — if I knew my first bet had processed there is zero chance I make the second bet.
Here were the 2 bets which would be idiotic to make:
Detroit -3.5
Los Angeles wins outright
Of course you know what happened. They both lose.
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jncuse
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Half units is pretty wise .. in theory I would think teams are now getting used to road games after playing a few, the crowd impact may be less the farther we get into conference season.
Also like we are seeing with our game Tonight, it seems like betters might be hammering home teams right now so the lines are adjusting.
jncuse
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It was a slow start, especially since I also took Samford (which did not work out), but in top 25 games we are now 3-2. Thankfully Cincy covered the -3 in OT.
I'll go back and check what my record is between "old school auto plays" and home dogs later this week.
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jncuse
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Group 1 Tonight: 4-2 (27-13)
Group 2 Tonight: 1-1 (30-14)
(Note Utah St was an overlap game, so I was 4-3 in actual games bet on)
So I continue tonight until the trend stops. I do expect it to stop shortly based on my premise of teams adapting to the road and KP's reaching equilibriums.
Group 1: (2 games) bet against Ole Miss and Auburn.
Group 2:
Colgate at Army (+9)
High Point at Presbyterian (+8.5)
Group 2 Tonight: 1-1 (30-14)
(Note Utah St was an overlap game, so I was 4-3 in actual games bet on)
So I continue tonight until the trend stops. I do expect it to stop shortly based on my premise of teams adapting to the road and KP's reaching equilibriums.
Group 1: (2 games) bet against Ole Miss and Auburn.
Group 2:
Colgate at Army (+9)
High Point at Presbyterian (+8.5)
UpstateSM
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Yupp. And both of my locals still juice 6 point NFL teasers -110. Legals are pricing them up to like -127 some places.
My bookies can both piss me off but there is still value in using them over the legal options. And there always will be as long as legal operators stay evil.
kirbivore
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Apparently I'm locked out of the Mike Hopkins thread so I'll ask here. Washington is +2.5 at awful Cal tonight. For those more familiar with Pac-12 hoops does Washington getting points here look like a trap?
jncuse
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3-1 last night (Group 1: 28-14, Group 2: 32-14)
Plays for Tonight
Illinois at Michigan (+3)
Vermont at Binghamton (+7)
Seattle at Stone Cold Steve Austin (-6)
St Thomas at South Dakota (+6)
Gonzaga at Pepperdine (+12.5)
Regarding the top 25, the "Old-School" auto bet (Top 25 at home favourites) is about 10-2 recently based on my quick scan... and most of the recent losses ATS are the home dogs against top 25. The beginning of my plays it was a bit of the opposite. But this could be the last night I play "home dogs against top 25" - let's see how Michigan does. That being said home dogs continue to do very strongly against the top teams from non power conferences (Group 2 Matchups) so keep riding that.
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