SU after Boeheim

[HakAttack]

Well put. Melo is the LARGE majority of the reason that our program is forever changed for the better. It baffles me how some people just dont get it. Melo put us on the map for the long haul (thru his play and donations)

Yup. I would completely agree. Some people don't realize how vital that 2003 NC was to the long term stability of the program.

I'd feel a lot worse if Boeheim left and we were still searching for that elusive NC, to be honest.

Once you're a program that wins one, and in the way that Melo did, as a STAR, that helps with self-sustaining immensely!

 

[OttoMets]

this isn't trying to be argumentative, but just out of curiosity what 5 teams would you have ahead of syracuse? i would think using the last 10 years to determine a programs current standing would be pretty fair.

Last ten years? Good question. It's difficult to do these things without being biased toward this year. But Kansas is an obvious one, as are North Carolina and Duke. And I think Michigan State is a clear-cut top-five program in the 2004-2013 period. Difficult to argue that Syracuse or anyone else has been better than those four (though Carolina did have a couple very subpar seasons). So who's #5?

Off the top of my head, Kentucky (though they had a rough patch), UCLA (though they're in a rough patch and tumbling quickly), Syracuse, Connecticut, Florida, and Louisville could make the argument. One blemish for us: 2003 is now outside of the ten-year window. All those teams have Final Fours (multiple Final Fours at that) in the last ten years; we have none.

 

[HakAttack]

Off the top of my head, Kentucky (though they had a rough patch), UCLA (though they're in a rough patch and tumbling quickly), Syracuse, Connecticut, Florida, and Louisville could make the argument. One blemish for us: 2003 is now outside of the ten-year window. All those teams have Final Fours (multiple Final Fours at that) in the last ten years; we have none.

That's why Boeheim's not irreplaceable. For as awesome as he's been for as long as he's been, he's only made it to 3 final fours in 30+ years.

That's not impressive. Look at a coach like Izzo, who seems to get more out of less than any coach in college basketball. He's been to SIX final fours in the last 15 years alone.

 

[anomander]

JB and the rest of Syracuse's fans wish we had the results of K, Izzo and Ol' Roy. Are you kidding me about K? He's been to more championship games than Boeheim's been to elite eights. Seven final fours in a nine year stretch? Unreal. Roy Williams may piss you off, but his teams have achieved way more than Boeheim's. Izzo has performed way more in the NCAA tournament with far less than Boeheim, too.

Boeheim is great, but certainly not irreplaceable. Unfortunately, Syracuse basketball has become completely confounded with Jim Boeheim as coach, that is it is really hard to separate the effects of Boeheim from the effects of the fans, the city, the program as a whole. I'll take Roy, Izzo, K, Self, Calipari, Donovan, (Calhoun if he was younger), Pitino any day of the week.

Unless you have a truly gifted coach like K, you are kind of stunting yourself as an elite program unless you go out and get the market's best available coach, which Syracuse has not done.

Roy Williams? Rick Pitino?

Williams has 2 national titles, and was beaten by JB in 2003 when he had the more talented team.

Pitino? Really? He has 1 in 1998, and hasn't done much since.

I can't even tell if your a Syracuse fan by the tone of a lot of your posts, but if you are you are the perfect example of the inferiority complex a lot of Syracuse fans have.

 

[OttoMets]

Izzo and Stevens are at the highest level in my opinion. If you guys had any clue the amount of thought process that Stevens puts into his system. He is a magician and the stuff he learns and does with statistics is way beyond what any of us can comprehend. And Izzo, man I'd just want to play for him, he makes kids believe.

Yeah, that's why I don't want to assess Stevens - I don't have a clue. Don't see much in the way of Butler's games. So he could be the best thing since Phog Allen. But I don't know.

I do know that Izzo is as good as (if not better than) any of the ~330 guys coaching Division I ball. He's tremendous.

 

[anomander]

That's why Boeheim's not irreplaceable. For as awesome as he's been for as long as he's been, he's only made it to 3 final fours in 30+ years.

That's not impressive. Look at a coach like Izzo, who seems to get more out of less than any coach in college basketball. He's been to SIX final fours in the last 15 years alone.

what would people say if Keith Smart never hit that shot, and JB had 2 titles? How differently would he be viewed then?

 

[anomander]

Yeah, that's why I don't want to assess Stevens - I don't have a clue. Don't see much in the way of Butler's games. So he could be the best thing since Phog Allen. But I don't know.

I do know that Izzo is as good as (if not better than) any of the ~330 guys coaching Division I ball. He's tremendous.

Stevens is an absolute genius. He would be my clear #1 choice to replace JB when Hop takes off.

 

[TinyManInside]

We have a can of worms on our hands with Boeheim and Hopkins. I don't want to bash JB at all but its far riskier keeping him around than moving onto Hopkins. I don't want to see what SU Basketball looks like with a team that has quit on JB (hasn't happened yet b/c he gets it and treats the kids like men and runs SU hoops like its an NBA team but it could with this high level of apathy we see from him publicly and having to field very very very young teams.)

Hopkins is a low risk transition (you are guaranteed recruiting at or near the current level and right now we are a national powerhouse and top 5 program and recruit like it.) Hopkins is a one time get out jail free card because he comes from the program and you get to replace a Hall of Fame coach and there isn't a drastic culture shock or change. You simply can't go wrong with Hopkins because you know he will bring in the recruits moving on to Hopkins really is the low risk move. The high risk move is JB staying with Hopkins leaving for another school and JB flat out "losing" a team. Add in some NCAA crap, decomitts, and transfers to one of the next couple years teams quitting on JB and our program could go up in flames. If that happens noone will want to commit to play for JB since they'll think he'll be retired before they get to campus.

It all comes down to recruits, we have a proven recruiter ready to be the head coach. You need an elite recruiter. Need to make the change, too risky to see what "bad" JB is like. JB has had a great last 5 years to go out on and has elevated his reputation to as high a place as it can be. Its a good time for him to move on IMO.

One thing I don't think many people realize is how instrumental Hopkins has been in keeping JB from 'losing' teams in the past. My biggest worry if Hop goes elsewhere after this season is that there is not someone here to hold things together off the court and we end up with a team that totally spirals out of control.

 

[TinyManInside]

The single most important thing is to have quality talent.

At least in the short term, I would expect Hopkins to field the same type of talent as we've had over the last decade. With good talent you have a leg up on achieving good results. Long term, to continue to attract that talent, you need results commensurate with the talent level. For the first 3-4 years, I sort of expect us to be slightly between B and C as hypothesized in the original post. Mostly on par with current results but maybe one NIT year thrown in. The real test would be the adjustment that comes after an NIT-type season...

 

[OttoMets]

That's why Boeheim's not irreplaceable. For as awesome as he's been for as long as he's been, he's only made it to 3 final fours in 30+ years.

That's not impressive. Look at a coach like Izzo, who seems to get more out of less than any coach in college basketball. He's been to SIX final fours in the last 15 years alone.

He's not irreplaceable; I just think the odds that we find the right replacement are extremely low.

Of course, I might be interested in someone who's a little less successful in the win column but gets the school past the Sweet Sixteen more frequently. If given the choice, what would we rather have, Boeheim's ~.745 and one Elite Eight every seven years, or a guy who's about .695 but gets every four-year class to a regional final?

 

[OttoMets]

Stevens is an absolute genius. He would be my clear #1 choice to replace JB when Hop takes off.

There are so many other things to consider; the coaching world had a lot of geniuses, but only a few of them are as successful as the guys we're talking about.

Can he recruit the East Coast?
Can he get his guys admitted to SU?
Will his interpersonal skills mesh with the kids he needs to win in the ACC? (I don't like SU's discipline problems, but Boeheim's kids seem to like his demeanor. Could a different personality have the same success? Sure. Would he? Dunno.)
Is he still a genius when it comes to playing up-tempo? (I don't believe anyone will succeed at SU playing games in the 60s.)

And then, does he want to be here?

 

[OttoMets]

One thing I don't think many people realize is how instrumental Hopkins has been in keeping JB from 'losing' teams in the past. My biggest worry if Hop goes elsewhere after this season is that there is not someone here to hold things together off the court and we end up with a team that totally spirals out of control.

You could not be more right.

Two teams immediately come to mind. And Hopkins was the guy who saved them.

 

[anomander]

There are so many other things to consider; the coaching world had a lot of geniuses, but only a few of them are as successful as the guys we're talking about.

Can he recruit the East Coast?
Can he get his guys admitted to SU?
Will his interpersonal skills mesh with the kids he needs to win in the ACC? (I don't like SU's discipline problems, but Boeheim's kids seem to like his demeanor. Could a different personality have the same success? Sure. Would he? Dunno.)
Is he still a genius when it comes to playing up-tempo? (I don't believe anyone will succeed at SU playing games in the 60s.)

And then, does he want to be here?

He gets top 100 guys to go to little Butler, I think he could recruit at Syracuse. It's not like we recruit regionally, we are a national recruiter in basketball. I think you can ask these questions of just about anyone. Why not go after someone with a proven track record of winning big with less talent? He has shown he can put people in the NBA, again from Butler. And who says he has to play up-tempo? Obviously whoever we bring in will have their own style of play, so i'm not sure where up-tempo factors in?

 

[HakAttack]

what would people say if Keith Smart never hit that shot, and JB had 2 titles? How differently would he be viewed then?

That's unrealistic to say though. What if any losing coach had a basket break differently in the FF? What if Hak hadn't blocked that three in 03' and we lost in OT?

 

[anomander]

That's unrealistic to say though. What if any losing coach had a basket break differently in the FF? What if Hak hadn't blocked that three in 03' and we lost in OT?

well you pretty much are discrediting JB for his 2003 title and handing it to Melo, so it goes both ways.

 

[HakAttack]

well you pretty much are discrediting JB for his 2003 title and handing it to Melo, so it goes both ways.

I never said JB wasn't important in winning the 03' title.

But I don't think anyone would say that if it wasn't for Melo, he's still chasing that title.

 

[OttoMets]

He gets top 100 guys to go to little Butler, I think he could recruit at Syracuse. It's not like we recruit regionally, we are a national recruiter in basketball. I think you can ask these questions of just about anyone. Why not go after someone with a proven track record of winning big with less talent? He has shown he can put people in the NBA, again from Butler. And who says he has to play up-tempo? Obviously whoever we bring in will have their own style of play, so i'm not sure where up-tempo factors in?

This is very true. No one's a sure thing. There'll be some uncertainty regarding those questions with every coach (some more than others). I do think East Coast roots and style of play are essential to sustaining what we have.

For recruiting, maybe he could recruit Lincoln's finest and bring in the good Philadelphia and Baltimore kids. But we don't get the sense that he has those connections.

As far as style of play, this isn't Kentucky or Indiana (or Butler). Syracuse's fans are fickle enough to begin with; if we play that slow-down style, our gate (along with regional buzz, maybe television appearances) will take a hit.

 

[anomander]

I never said JB wasn't important in winning the 03' title.

But I don't think anyone would say that if it wasn't for Melo, he's still chasing that title.

ya and if Keith Smart was a few inches to the left he would have 2. like i said goes both ways. what he doesn't get any credit for recruiting Melo? He didn't beat 3 teams in that tournament that we were under dogs in and had less talent? you are defeating your own argument.

 

[kingtidge]

One thing I don't think many people realize is how instrumental Hopkins has been in keeping JB from 'losing' teams in the past. My biggest worry if Hop goes elsewhere after this season is that there is not someone here to hold things together off the court and we end up with a team that totally spirals out of control.

Not for nothing, but we may be watching that happen in the real-time right now... of course, with b-ball yet to be played, I hope I am wrong...

 

[anomander]

This is very true. No one's a sure thing. There'll be some uncertainty regarding those questions with every coach (some more than others). I do think East Coast roots and style of play are essential to sustaining what we have.

For recruiting, maybe he could recruit Lincoln's finest and bring in the good Philadelphia and Baltimore kids. But we don't get the sense that he has those connections.

As far as style of play, this isn't Kentucky or Indiana (or Butler). Syracuse's fans are fickle enough to begin with; if we play that slow-down style, our gate (along with regional buzz, maybe television appearances) will take a hit.

careful not to say that in the football forum. we aren't the football program though our basketball program can recruit nationally. just look at all the football kids we are recruiting from the midwest. almost every single kid says they don't know much about the football program, but the 1 thing they know about Syracuse U is the basketball program. We are all over ESPN. It's not like he has to go introduce himself, HS kids know who he is. He made 2 straight FF. He isn't some obscure football coach who would need to introduce himself. And he doesn't run a grind the shot clock offense. Unlike JB he uses a lot of set plays, so it would be a huge difference , and from the sound of it here the past month a lot of people would welcome this. Finally Butler games tend to be lower scoring because they always have some of the best defensive numbers in the country. Maybe it's me, but I think he would be a perfect fit.

Who would you like to see us go after out of curiosity?

 

[newmexicuse]

I do not think the future results will fit into any of your four categories, assuming that Hop lives up to his potential as a HC or we get an above average competant replacement.

It will be impossible for the next coach to match Jimmy's consistance over the years. So that eliminates choice B. I do not think it is possible in today's world of one and dones and talent equality for any program to be a national top 5 every season (see even Kentucky this year), so that eliminates possibility A. Nor do I see a major decline so that eliminates C & D.

So what I do forsee is that the program will be more erratic, but hopefully, will have higher highs. I can envision us being more like UConn was during the Calhoun years. Will we match UConn's title gathering success ??? Maybe not, but I would forsee us having years when we make deeper March runs, and hopefully an improvement on Jimmy's once in 12 year FF appearance record. The trade off for this will some down years when we struggle and maybe do not even go dancing.

 

[OttoMets]

careful not to say that in the football forum. we aren't the football program though our basketball program can recruit nationally. just look at all the football kids we are recruiting from the midwest. almost every single kid says they don't know much about the football program, but the 1 thing they know about Syracuse U is the basketball program. We are all over ESPN. It's not like he has to go introduce himself, HS kids know who he is. He made 2 straight FF. He isn't some obscure football coach who would need to introduce himself. And he doesn't run a grind the shot clock offense. Unlike JB he uses a lot of set plays, so it would be a huge difference , and from the sound of it here the past month a lot of people would welcome this. Finally Butler games tend to be lower scoring because they always have some of the best defensive numbers in the country. Maybe it's me, but I think he would be a perfect fit.

Who would you like to see us go after out of curiosity?

In the monopoly money world I think I'd like Izzo. Maybe Tom Crean (assuming for a second that his episode on Sunday never happened and he's not in fact deranged).

In reality, Hopkins. (I do think he'd be that guy with a .690 winning percentage, a sprinkling of NITs, but more frequent Elite Eights and Final Fours than Boeheim.)

Regarding Stevens, I really don't know how recognizable he'd be to the high school set. I like that he's young, but he doesn't have the cache of a lot of more experienced coaches. (And more important, I have no idea what relationships he has with high school coaches or AAU people.) And I really do think Boeheim's freelancing reputation appeals strongly to our bread-and-butter recruits from East Coast cities. Don't know that we'd be able to win with Midwestern kids (it'd be tough to get them away from Midwestern schools, anyhow), and I don't know if our Baltimore and Philadelphia kids would be so keen on Syracuse if it became another program with strictly-regimented offensive sets and a more deliberate style. (Again, those are all "don't know"s - maybe such a change would be great. It'd be dramatic, though, and I don't think that's what we need.)

 

[anomander]

So what I do forsee is that the program will be more erratic, but hopefully, will have higher highs. I can envision us being more like UConn was during the Calhoun years. Will we match UConn's title gathering success ??? Maybe not, but I would forsee us having years when we make deeper March runs, and hopefully an improvement on Jimmy's once in 12 year FF appearance record. The trade off for this will some down years when we struggle and maybe do not even go dancing.

I think this is dead on. Just look at the examples out there now. Just look at how the best recruiting programs have performed over the past 10 years. 1 and dones, and early departures have really hurt the top programs. Case in point

Kentucky - Look at this year for example. Possibly missing the NCAA tournament after winning titles last year. Underclassmen declaring finally catches up.

Florida - Back to back titles to mediocrity for a few years, and now this year finally back

No Carolina - Has there been a more up and down program recently. Seem to go from FF contender one year to middle of ACC the next year.

Duke - Have been pretty steady, but other then title year, haven't been as dominant.

Syracuse - Early departures Melo, Eidlen, Green, Flynn, Fab, Dion. We have actually been pretty consistent since Flynn left. Bad luck got us twice, and this year we may finally be in that cyclical dip the other top teams have suffered. If you want to call suffering top 25, and a possible 5 seed. Point is I don't see how JB can be faulted, this is the life of the top cbb programs now a days.

 

[anomander]

In the monopoly money world I think I'd like Izzo. Maybe Tom Crean (assuming for a second that his episode on Sunday never happened and he's not in fact deranged).

In reality, Hopkins. (I do think he'd be that guy with a .690 winning percentage, a sprinkling of NITs, but more frequent Elite Eights and Final Fours than Boeheim.)

Regarding Stevens, I really don't know how recognizable he'd be to the high school set. I like that he's young, but he doesn't have the cache of a lot of more experienced coaches. (And more important, I have no idea what relationships he has with high school coaches or AAU people.) And I really do think Boeheim's freelancing reputation appeals strongly to our bread-and-butter recruits from East Coast cities. Don't know that we'd be able to win with Midwestern kids (it'd be tough to get them away from Midwestern schools, anyhow), and I don't know if our Baltimore and Philadelphia kids would be so keen on Syracuse if it became another program with strictly-regimented offensive sets and a more deliberate style. (Again, those are all "don't know"s - maybe such a change would be great. It'd be dramatic, though, and I don't think that's what we need.)

The problem we will have is we won't be able to pay a coach like Izzo or Crean. I don't see us getting an already established "big name", because for the most part almost all would need to take a pay cut.

And I have to disagree. If Brad Stevens walked into any gym in the country I am willing to bet almost all of the top 100 players would know who he is.

 

[HakAttack]

you are defeating your own argument.

I think you're defeating YOUR own argument when you quote people like Eidlen.

JB's not a god. Nor is he infallible. He's a guy who's spent his whole career at one school and turned their basketball program into an elite program.

Surely if we've been elite since the mid 80's, we won't stop being so just because JB decides to hit the links, right?

Have some more faith in the program that JB's built.