Most common projections this week are
1. Orange Bowl
2. Cheez It
3. Sun Bowl
USA Today has an accurate projection imo. They said
Clemson Playoff
Wake Orange
Syracuse Gator
UNC Cheez It
NCST Mayo
UNC/Syracuse could probably be used interchangeably for Gator/Cheez It.
If I was projecting right now, I would have Clemson in the playoff, Wake in the Orange, us in the Gator and UNC in the Cheez It.
We really need Clemson to hold serve, finish undefeated and get in the playoff and find a way to finish at least 9-3.
If you look at SU's schedule objectively, I think you have to pencil in losses on the road to Clemson and Wake. We will be double digit underdogs for both of those games.
I like our chances against ND and FSU at home. I like our chances at BC. Pitt on the road will be tough. That seems like a 50-50 game to me.
If we only lose one of those games and end up 9-3, I think we did well.
UNC is 6-1 and has the following games left:
Pitt
at UVa
at Wake
GT
NC State
I think they will lose at Wake. Pitt and NC State are coin flip type games to me. I think they split those. They might lose another one but probably not. I have them finishing 9-3.
Wake is 5-1 and has the following games left:
BC
at UL
at NC State
UNC
Syracuse
at Duke
I think we have the best shot at beating them. Already said I think they will win against us. They have a realistic chance to finish 11-1.
If they do and we finish 9-3, they get the Orange and we or UNC gets the Gator. Given UNC always seems to get the best treatment in these kinds of things, I would expect them to get the Gator if we both finish 9-3 and we get the Cheez It.
Pitt is 4-2 and has the following games left:
at UL
at UNC
Syracuse
at UVa
Duke
at UM
There are a bunch of 50-50 type games left for them. Really not sure how this will end up. My gut feeling is that they will lose on the road to UNC and UM and lose at home to us to finish 7-5. But this is a weak schedule; the only ranked team they have left is us. For now, I am not including them or NC State in consideration for the good Florida bowls.
If we get down to an 8-4 record, that could change.
I think we need to get at least 9 wins in the regular season to ensure we get a bowl in Florida. And even then, I am not sure how things work. I think the Holiday Bowl pays more than the Cheez It Bowl. Does that mean they can choose before the Cheez It, and override the desires of the school they are picking?