SU Depth = Mirage

[Nicknack]

I have a couple of friends who keep talking about how we are the best team in the country and are the favorite to win it all. Funny thing is that one is a Kansas alumn and the other a Duke alumn. One of the things that they say to back up their opinion is what they hear on TV and that is how deep we are and how that will be a problem for anyone who faces us in the tourney.

Unfortunately, game by game the confidence that I have in this team is dwindling, much like Southerland's 3-point percentage. There are so many trends that are very concerning. It is also hard to believe that I'm saying that this team seems worse than they were a month or so ago. Seems to me the point that the downward trends started was when Melo went out. We just haven't been the same since, regardless of the record we have.

Our depth has become a mirage. Think about it... MCW rarely plays, X-mas starts for 90 seconds and then doesn't really contribute, and Southerland is in a big slump. We are basically down to 7 guys who Coach can count on right now. Actually, that's not true... Triche has been slumping right along with Southerland although I do believe he will find a way out of it, but for now, he is just way too inconsistent when very soon we will need him game in and game out.

Dion has never been the same since Melo was out; I think that's due to him thinking that he needed to step it up during Fab's absence. Pre-Melo absence, I loved Dion's unselfish play. Now days, he just seems to be looking more for his own. A deep team... I'm hoping we will return to that in reality, but for now, we're looking fairly thin in terms of what players are actually doing and who plays meaningful minutes.

Other concerns/gripes:

1. Scoop's free throw %
2. Dion complains way too much and as a result is often caught with his pants down at the end of the court while the other team is driving
3. MCW not getting a chance - I would rather lose a game right now at the expense of at least giving the guy a chance to contribute. If he is not used now, then how the heck can we expect to have him play in the BE and NCAA tourney's?
4. Our half-court offense - 'nuff said
5. Triche needs either a hug or a big kick in the pants - what's up with him? Seriously... I wonder if we have a sports psychologist working with him. Sure seems like it could help.

Things I like:

1. Dion's passion - I do believe he will return to old form by the time it really counts but time is ticking and I miss what he was doing CONSISTENTLY earlier on in the season.
2. Scoop - he's playing really well and acting as a true leader of the team. I love him out there!
3. kJo - his stats may not back me on this but I just get the sense that he is slowly starting to be more of the go to guy (and I emphasize slowly... he isn't over doing it or pressing).
4. CJ - just WOW. Take his box score from last night (13 Pts, 6 Reb, 3 Ast, 5 Stl) - just another day in the life of CJ. Without him, we would be in a world of hurt.
5. Coach hasn't given up on Southerland - in past years, he probably would have by now. I just wish he would give MCW more of an opportunity because he seemed like he was getting better. In any event, Coach certainly knows more than me so I'm sure he has his reasons.
6. Fab's Free Throw Shooting - it's great to actually see him knock down two at the line when it counts. I've actually come to expect him to hit them now.
7. The teams' resilience and experience - even with all of the concerns and downward trends, this team will be a tough out because they won't give up and truly believe in themselves (although I'm not sure about Triche sometimes).

 

[Marsh01]

3. MCW not getting a chance - I would rather lose a game right now at the expense of at least giving the guy a chance to contribute. If he is not used now, then how the heck can we expect to have him play in the BE and NCAA tourney's?

Good lord why do people keep saying this??? He is probably not going to be playing much down the stretch. Is that such a bad thing? I love this kid and think he wil be an all time great but how is losing a couple of games helping this team by giving the 4th guard more PT?

 

[cusetown1]

3. MCW not getting a chance - I would rather lose a game right now at the expense of at least giving the guy a chance to contribute. If he is not used now, then how the heck can we expect to have him play in the BE and NCAA tourney's?

Good lord why do people keep saying this??? He is probably not going to be playing much down the stretch. Is that such a bad thing? I love this kid and think he wil be an all time great but how is losing a couple of games helping this team by giving the 4th guard more PT?

He know's his time will come. That kid was up cheering the hardest of anyone. He is behind 3 other guards.

 

[NKR1978]

3. MCW not getting a chance - I would rather lose a game right now at the expense of at least giving the guy a chance to contribute. If he is not used now, then how the heck can we expect to have him play in the BE and NCAA tourney's?

Good lord why do people keep saying this??? He is probably not going to be playing much down the stretch. Is that such a bad thing? I love this kid and think he wil be an all time great but how is losing a couple of games helping this team by giving the 4th guard more PT?

The MCW obsession is insane. We have 3 guards who have all proven themselves and are all serviceable to great on any given day (in spite of what some people here think, they have all been great at points within the last five games). If anything happens to any of them, MCW will play. And this is certainly a better position to be in than in 2010 when we were stuck with Riley trying to give us minutes for AO.

Rak and MCW are 9 and 10. They have both gotten very good minutes throughout the year and have each had some great moments. We have the luxury of experience where every single one of our top 8 guys has been through battles, and we want to throw that away for the sake of getting minutes to the 9th and 10th guys.

 

[Oakland]

Our rotation is now 7 + 0.2 + 0.1 + 0.03

 

[Knicks411]

The depth is a mirage, but it doesn't really bother me. It isn't like there is a great correlation between depth and winning the title.

 

[AZOrange]

Good lord why do people keep saying this??? ?

Marsh do you really need to ask why?

 

[heresjohnny88]

Depth is always a mirage in college basketball. Bottom line is, in the tournament, you rely on your horses. I look at depth as a "bonus" in March...AKA it helps us if someone gets hurt in the middle of a game, or we run into some foul trouble.

 

[cuseincincy]

First of all, how will we ever win another game. Secondly, I'd argue the depth is still there. We're just not using it as much. Depth to me means, if needed will our bench be able to keep up with other teams starters? I'd say yes. I agree that 6 players have elevated themselves above the other 4 and those 6 will get all the pt they can handle down the stretch.

 

[Knicks411]

First of all, how will we ever win another game. Secondly, I'd argue the depth is still there. We're just not using it as much. Depth to me means, if needed will our bench be able to keep up with other teams starters? I'd say yes.

Who? Rak? James?

Sure Dion can, and I guess BMK can giv you s ome minutes at th e 5.

 

[Marsh01]

Marsh do you really need to ask why?

No but one can always hope by asking the question

Sent from my DROID BIONIC using Tapatalk

 

[DoctorBombay]

 

[IthacaMatt]

The depth is a mirage, but it doesn't really bother me. It isn't like there is a great correlation between depth and winning the title.

Take a look at this metric. This guy rates the top 200 players in the country in terms of how many points they score for their team, and how many points they take away from the other team. The metric is more complicated than that, but that's the gist of it.

Bottom line in this guy's analysis - we have SEVEN of the top 200 players in the country. Kentucky has four. Even James Southerland makes the list, despite his prolonged shooting slump. Although our guys are not all clicking right now, we do have a lot of very talented players.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/02/best-200-basketball-players-18-days.html

 

[Knicks411]

The numbers are interesting, I'll avoid diving in-depth into how the stats are derived, because I probably can't follow it. (Damn, Davis seems like he is miles ahead of everyone else).

I think we have 6 really talented players. I have trouble taking James seriously, it might be unfair, but he has to do it against good teams. (Well right now, he has to do it against ANY teams, but I think you follow me).

 

[bevosu]

Nicknack...In my opinion..a fair and reasonable post.

 

[texascpa]

Take a look at this metric. This guy rates the top 200 players in the country in terms of how many points they score for their team, and how many points they take away from the other team. The metric is more complicated than that, but that's the gist of it.

Bottom line in this guy's analysis - we have SEVEN of the top 200 players in the country. Kentucky has four. Even James Southerland makes the list, despite his prolonged shooting slump. Although our guys are not all clicking right now, we do have a lot of very talented players.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/02/best-200-basketball-players-18-days.html

How dare you pull out facts. Only gut feelings and hyperbole are allowed on this forum.

 

[tbonezone]

i guess my problem is that i keeping hearing how 6 players have now "elevated" themselves but yet the team as a whole seems to be playing worse.do you really think we're playing better now than we were early this season ?

 

[pfister1]

The depth is a mirage, but it doesn't really bother me. It isn't like there is a great correlation between depth and winning the title.

Right, it's great fodder for the talking heads, but doesn't necessarily correlate with winning or losing. I think depth is becoming less and less important for this team. First, we have 7 or 8 guys that don't typically get into a lot of foul trouble, therefore the depth isn't typically needed because of fouls. Our most foul prone starter - Melo - has a clear backup (Keita) that gets regular minutes. Second, no one seems to want to let us run, games are being played at a much slower tempo, so for that reason fatigue shouldn't be a big issue either. If we need to press for an extended period and cause faitgue because guys are exerting a lot of energy in the press, JB has an extra guard and extra forward he can work in to give guys a blow.

 

[pfister1]

i guess my problem is that i keeping hearing how 6 players have now "elevated" themselves but yet the team as a whole seems to be playing worse.do you really think we're playing better now than we were early this season ?

It is really hard to know. The level of competition has changed significantly. The offense doesn't seem to be playing as well, but we are playing tougher defensive teams. The defense may be playing better than it was early in the season. We held USF scoreless for a 10+ minute stretch last night...that is really quite incredible.

I think this is a defensive team. Our offense looked better than it was earlier in the year, in part because we were playing teams that (i) were weak, (ii) hadn't figured out our weaknesses and were willing to get into uptempo games with us and (iii) we were shooting better. On the defensive side we have played consistently well all season and may even be playing better now than earlier in the year. Syracuse has historically been a team built on offense and scoring...we are having a hard time appreciating a team that is offensively challenged, and good as a result of its defense rather than its offense.

 

[Knicks411]

It's funny because our offense still ranks higher nationally than the D, though I think some of that is because of the easy points the defense gets.

One thing I will say on the D; the poor rebounding makes it worse than you'd think based on turnovers and field goal%.

 

[jncuse]

We are back to a seven man rotation + few spot minutes from others which I think is the ideal size. We have some bodies who can come in and not be useless if there are injuries or foul trouble (remember Dash Riley).

You don't need great depth in the NCAA tournament - but you need a good sixth and seventh man. Let's remember why the depth argument started -- it was so that analysts could explain why we were as good as Kentucky and UNC despite not having the same level of NBA talent. But a solid NCAA player can be better then a young or stupid NBA talent (like UNC's John Moron)

 

[Nicknack]

Depth is always a mirage in college basketball. Bottom line is, in the tournament, you rely on your horses. I look at depth as a "bonus" in March...AKA it helps us if someone gets hurt in the middle of a game, or we run into some foul trouble.

I disagree completely. Our depth earlier in the year was NOT a mirage, but it clearly is now. Yes, xmas is still the same, but look back at Dion who played like a man possessed (and coming off the bench), James having his nights but at least contributing and MCW playing solid minutes even though they were limited. We truly had 10 guys CONTRIBUTING. Now, we have Scoop, CJ, a 50-60% Dion compared to earlier in the year, Triche ??, and Melo.

I agree in that most teams do not need depth to win a NC; however, I believe we do this year at least to some extent. The teams that don't need the depth are ones that have much more consistent contribution from everyone who is playing. If we were getting the same type of play from Dion as what we saw earlier in the year and Triche would be more consistent, I wouldn't be too concerned. However, with more depth, when those guys (or anyone else for that matter) has an off night, they can be replaced. Lack of depth takes that ability away for the most part and we have to play simply with what we have. That is what concerns me... but don't get me wrong, I still think we are very good.

Our team of two years ago (you know, the year AO got hurt) was one in which we didn't need much depth because each part of the puzzle played consistently well. That was a team that was truly built for a championship. I still think about that team and how in my opinion, it was our best team with the best chance of winning a NC in the past 20 years. I'd even put that team up against our good ole' 2003 squad.

 

[44cuse]

i guess my problem is that i keeping hearing how 6 players have now "elevated" themselves but yet the team as a whole seems to be playing worse.do you really think we're playing better now than we were early this season ?

No. I don't.

There. On the record.

Are we winning? Yes. Is that good? Yes. Do we seem to be playing as well as we were earlier in the season? No.

44cuse

 

[moqui]

We are basically down to 7 guys who Coach can count on right now. .

It is a true 7.5 man rotation. Dirty is in a terrible slump (as is Dion) offensively, but he has proven that JB can, in fact, count on him when the chips were down. He has been very good on defense, and SU does not beat Louisville without the solid play he put up in the 12 1/2 minutes that Joseph had to sit with foul trouble.

You are correct to point out that there are currently only 4 offensive threats among those 7.5 guys, and I will go further and note that only 2 of them (Joseph and Jardine) can create their own offense.

I do take heart in the fact that the 2003 champions also cratered a bit offensively in conference play, especially their outside shooting, but regained their touch as soon as they got out of the conference grind. Here's hoping the current group finds the same relief once the Dance music starts.

2003 Three point percentages by schedule stage:

 

[AZOrange]

No. I don't.

There. On the record.

Are we winning? Yes. Is that good? Yes. Do we seem to be playing as well as we were earlier in the season? No.

44cuse

I guess it depends on what games you look at. And I have no idea how you compare them accurately. How about Yukon game? Was that better than Stanford?