SU opens -10 over Uconn...

[690West]

I expect that to go up a point pretty quickly.

 

[cusetown1]

I really am feeling a blow out tomorrow.

 

[JoeSU]

Wasn't Georgetown -11.5?

 

[jdubs30]

Wasn't Georgetown -11.5?

Yep.

But now early money will be on Syracuse, the line will get bumped to 11 or 11.5, then people might start jumping on UConn.

This shows me that Vegas can't really pinpoint this game and is gonna cover it's ass by trying to get 50/50 money on both teams.

 

[690West]

Wasn't Georgetown -11.5?

Gtown opened -11.5 but immediately got slammed down to -9 and you could even get -8.5 some places

 

[MyMeloMyMan]

I loved Pitt.. I loved Gtown...but I love SU tomorrow. We win by 17

 

[690West]

I expect that to go up a point pretty quickly.

Lol. Or not, down to -9.5

 

[JohnCuse44]

Lol. Or not, down to -9.5

After last game I would not take SU at -10. I know UConn has been struggleing but they will come out to play us hard.

 

[690West]

I expect that to go up a point pretty quickly.

Booyah. -11

 

[twinight]

This shows me that Vegas can't really pinpoint this game and is gonna cover it's ass by trying to get 50/50 money on both teams.

That's not "covering their ass" that's how sports betting works. Vegas always wants as close to a 50/50 split as possible.

 

[CorduroyG]

How often do we blow out uconn? Not too often, even in their down years. I expect another rock fight. Take the points!

(hope im wrong)

 

[Marsh01]

Wow...i thought it would be about 8-9. I do think it will be an easier line to cover as opposed to georgetown who keeps the game in the 60's.

Sent from my DROID BIONIC using Tapatalk

 

[jdubs30]

That's not "covering their ass" that's how sports betting works. Vegas always wants as close to a 50/50 split as possible.

Not neccesarily. Sometimes you'll see games with 65% of the money on 1 team and Vegas will still move the line in favor of that team, and at tipoff that team might have 75% of the public on them.

 

[twinight]

Not neccesarily. Sometimes you'll see games with 65% of the money on 1 team and Vegas will still move the line in favor of that team, and at tipoff that team might have 75% of the public on them.

Yes, necessarily.

And any oddsmaker who did what you suggested would not be working for long. Their whole objective is to get a 50/50 betting split.

 

[jdubs30]

Yes, necessarily.

And any oddsmaker who did what you suggested would not be working for long. Their whole objective is to get a 50/50 betting split.

How would they make money if its 50/5o on both teams?

http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

Look at that site tomorrow. You'll find some games will have a heavy lean for the public and the line will move in favor of them despite that. Vegas knows a hell of a lot more than we do and it shows.

Hell, my betting strategy all year has been using that site and doing the following:
1. Look for any game that has a 60%+ lean on one side or the other
2. Compare the opening line to the current line
3. If the team that is 60%+ lean has the line move in their favor by at least 1 point, bet on the other team.

I've won a lot of money doing this.

EDIT: Example from tonight: Wisc Green-Bay vs. Wright State

66% of the public is on Wright State
The line opened at -3 Wright State.
The line is now -2 Wright State.
The goal is to get the public to Wright State.

Any questions?

 

[MyMeloMyMan]

Not neccesarily. Sometimes you'll see games with 65% of the money on 1 team and Vegas will still move the line in favor of that team, and at tipoff that team might have 75% of the public on them.

You may indeed see games where 65% of the money ends up on one side..that happens often. But the bookmakers in Vegas aim to get a 50/50 split on both sides so the casino's take all the vig. They automatically make money. Vegas is not employing a bookmaker to "fool the public and take a side" on a game. The casinos want to make money... they aren't trying to get cute and choose sides.

 

[jdubs30]

You may indeed see games where 65% of the money ends up on one side..that happens often. But the bookmakers in Vegas aim to get a 50/50 split on both sides so the casino's take all the vig. They automatically make money. Vegas is not employing a bookmaker to "fool the public and take a side" on a game. The casinos want to make money... they aren't trying to get cute and choose sides.

If you looked at the breakdowns of most games you'd be surprised, there aren't as many 50/50 (or 52/48, etc) games as you'd think.

 

[MyMeloMyMan]

If you looked at the breakdowns of most games you'd be surprised, there aren't as many 50/50 (or 52/48, etc) games as you'd think.

Each casino makes its own lines. When I go out to Vegas in March, you can see sometimes 1 point or even a 1.5 difference in lines at different casinos. We have spoken to many guys out there and the story is always the same. They want $500,000 on SU and 500,000 on UCONN... and the house takes the vig. They are not in the business of trying to take baths on games. As soon as you pick a side, you have created more risk for the casino. Thats a four letter word in more than one sense for a bookmaker.

Some of those old wild west casino's went out of business on the old strip in Vegas because of crazy bookmakers. You dont really hear about that stuff anymore.

 

[rrlbees]

Yes, necessarily.

And any oddsmaker who did what you suggested would not be working for long. Their whole objective is to get a 50/50 betting split.

Yep. It doesn't always happen but their goal is always 50/50 so that they would be guaranteed the 10% vig.

Sent from my DROIDX

 

[twinight]

How would they make money if its 50/5o on both teams?

http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

Look at that site tomorrow. You'll find some games will have a heavy lean for the public and the line will move in favor of them despite that. Vegas knows a hell of a lot more than we do and it shows.

Hell, my betting strategy all year has been using that site and doing the following:
1. Look for any game that has a 60%+ lean on one side or the other
2. Compare the opening line to the current line
3. If the team that is 60%+ lean has the line move in their favor by at least 1 point, bet on the other team.

I've won a lot of money doing this.

EDIT: Example from tonight: Wisc Green-Bay vs. Wright State

66% of the public is on Wright State
The line opened at -3 Wright State.
The line is now -2 Wright State.
The goal is to get the public to Wright State.

Any questions?

No, I don't have questions. And if I did, I wouldn't direct them at you because you don't understand how sports betting works. I don't mean that as an insult, that's probably a good thing about you.

You understand that any legitimate casino or is not betting on the game itself, yes? When you bet on sports you're not betting against the house, you're betting against all other bettors. And the house just takes its cut. This is a fundamental concept in sports betting. And the only way that works in the long run is by casinos striving to have the money split as close to 50/50 as possible.

All your Wright State example shows is that you're basing your bets on a site that isn't looking at the full spectrum of bets being placed.

That's not to say that there aren't times when the majority of the bets still fall to one team, but that happens despite the bookmaker's efforts, not because of them.

 

[SkanSU]

SU -11. No offense but at this point I would take UConn and the 11. Big rivalry ala GTown. These teams are going to come in playing out of their heads ... we are the team other teams are playing forward to. Rebounding ... ack. UConn is a good team who can't seem to put it together. SU by 5

 

[JohnCuse44]

After last game I would not take SU at -10. I know UConn has been struggleing but they will come out to play us hard.

And this is why I don't bet.