Syracuse Bubble/NET/ACC Rooting Guide 2/28 to 3/9

[pokercuse08]

THURSDAY 2/29
11pm San Francisco 68 vs Gonzaga 86

The Dons did not come through. Quiet night again tonight.

FRIDAY 3/1
8pm Cornell @ Penn
10:30 Fresno State at Nevada

Cornell is a 4.5 point favorite, so we're looking for a win by that margin or more. Not hugely relevant, my guess is we need them to win the conference tournament to move up enough in NET, but we don't need them blowing games like this either.

 

[Marty McFly]

the Dons had a rough first 10 minutes of the second half giving up a 24-3 run.

 

[pokercuse08]

If you don’t think UVA is safe, we have no shot at getting in

Virginia has @ Duke and GT. Assume they lose at Duke and win at home vs GT. If we win out...

Virginia 22-9, Q1 3-6, Q2 4-3, Q3/4 15-0
Syracuse 20-10, Q1 3-7, Q2 4-1, Q3/4 13-2

And if GT gets into the top 135 and NC State the top 75...

Virginia 22-9, Q1 3-7, Q2 6-2, Q3/4 13-0
Syracuse 20-10, Q1 4-7, Q2 4-2, Q3/4 12-1

Current...
RPI: Cuse 29, Virginia 42
SOS: Cuse 10, Virginia 71
NET: Cuse 82, Virginia 46

If we win a couple ACCT games and they lose their first, overall records are nearly identical, and our Q1/Q2 is better, and they have no bad losses.

In that scenario their best win is @ Clemson, then neutral vs Florida. We'd have UNC at home, @ Clemson, neutral over at least one good team in the ACCT. We'd be a team rounding into form late, they'd be the opposite.

Right now they're safely in and we're out. But there's definitely a road to moving past them, and them landing right on the bubble.

 

[upperdeck]

The Dons did not come through. Quiet night again tonight.

Cornell is a 4.5 point favorite, so we're looking for a win by that margin or more. Not hugely relevant, my guess is we need them to win the conference tournament to move up enough in NET, but we don't need them blowing games like this either.

Cornell needs to win the last 2 to avoid rematches with both Yale and Princeton. So they have the incentive after last weeks Brown flop following the Yale win.

 

[upperdeck]

Virginia has @ Duke and GT. Assume they lose at Duke and win at home vs GT. If we win out...

Virginia 22-9, Q1 3-6, Q2 4-3, Q3/4 15-0
Syracuse 20-10, Q1 3-7, Q2 4-1, Q3/4 13-2

And if GT gets into the top 135 and NC State the top 75...

Virginia 22-9, Q1 3-7, Q2 6-2, Q3/4 13-0
Syracuse 20-10, Q1 4-7, Q2 4-2, Q3/4 12-1

Current...
RPI: Cuse 29, Virginia 42
SOS: Cuse 10, Virginia 71
NET: Cuse 82, Virginia 46

If we win a couple ACCT games and they lose their first, overall records are nearly identical, and our Q1/Q2 is better, and they have no bad losses.

In that scenario their best win is @ Clemson, then neutral vs Florida. We'd have UNC at home, @ Clemson, neutral over at least one good team in the ACCT. We'd be a team rounding into form late, they'd be the opposite.

Right now they're safely in and we're out. But there's definitely a road to moving past them, and them landing right on the bubble.

BC had chances last night to win that game.

 

[pokercuse08]

FRIDAY 3/1
8pm Cornell 87 @ Penn 81
10:30 Fresno State 66 at Nevada 74

Cornell did their job and covered the spread, may get a slight bump up from 94th in the NET.

Lots of Saturday action...

SATURDAY 3/2
12pm Asteroid to hit Villanova at Providence (both on bubble)
12pm DePaul vs Butler
12pm Tulane at Florida Atlantic
12pm Georgia Tech vs Florida St
2pm Oregon @ Arizona
2pm Oklahoma State at Texas
3:30pm LSU at Vandy
4pm NC State @ North Carolina
4pm Charlotte vs South Florida
5:30 Virginia Tech vs Wake Forest
6pm VCU at Richmond
6pm Georgia vs Texas A&M
6pm Boston College vs Pitt (most likely, but we don't want Pitt to drop too far - and a BC win vs UVA may get them on the right side of the line for us already)
7pm Cornell @ Princeton
7pm Asteroid to hit Kansas State at Cincinnati (both on bubble)
8pm Boise State vs New Mexico
8pm SYRACUSE @ Louisville
10pm St. Mary's vs Gonzaga

This is a day that has the potential to see us gain a Q1 win and lose a Q3 loss. NC State at North Carolina is massive for us, that upset would be huge - I would expect it to move NC State into the top 75, which would turn that Q2 win into a Q2 and the Q3 into a Q2. So effectively after cancelling out, it's a Q3 -> Q1. Next is GT over Florida State, that could be enough to move GT above 135th and remove a bad loss.

Oregon over Arizona would be huge as well, although it probably won't take the Ducks from 65th into the top 50, it should be a 10+ spot move if they can pull off a huge road upset. It would leave them within striking distance of turning that into a Q1 win.

Va Tech over Wake would be nice, a BC win over Pitt would be good but they have a lot of work to do to get into the top 75. Big game for Cornell, a win at Princeton might move them up 8-10 spots in NET. A close loss could even see them move up - same is true of Oregon.

The other thing we haven't talked about is the butterfly effect, if you will. It's not just those quadrant changes - our opponents improving their numbers means that our efficiency numbers improve as a knock-on effect. Of course the flip side is true. Even if we win by high single digits, if some of our key opponents have a poor showing, we might find ourselves just treading water or even going backwards.

 

[Red2003]

Cornell did their job and covered the spread, may get a slight bump up from 94th in the NET.

Lots of Saturday action...


This is a day that has the potential to see us gain a Q1 win and lose a Q3 loss. NC State at North Carolina is massive for us, that upset would be huge - I would expect it to move NC State into the top 75, which would turn that Q2 win into a Q2 and the Q3 into a Q2. So effectively after cancelling out, it's a Q3 -> Q1. Next is GT over Florida State, that could be enough to move GT above 135th and remove a bad loss.

Oregon over Arizona would be huge as well, although it probably won't take the Ducks from 65th into the top 50, it should be a 10+ spot move if they can pull off a huge road upset. It would leave them within striking distance of turning that into a Q1 win.

Va Tech over Wake would be nice, a BC win over Pitt would be good but they have a lot of work to do to get into the top 75. Big game for Cornell, a win at Princeton might move them up 8-10 spots in NET. A close loss could even see them move up - same is true of Oregon.

The other thing we haven't talked about is the butterfly effect, if you will. It's not just those quadrant changes - our opponents improving their numbers means that our efficiency numbers improve as a knock-on effect. Of course the flip side is true. Even if we win by high single digits, if some of our key opponents have a poor showing, we might find ourselves just treading water or even going backwards.

Basically we want total chaos. It’s crazy to say with 2 games left we could still get a double bye in the ACCT.

 

[orangenauburn]

Cornell did their job and covered the spread, may get a slight bump up from 94th in the NET.

Lots of Saturday action...


This is a day that has the potential to see us gain a Q1 win and lose a Q3 loss. NC State at North Carolina is massive for us, that upset would be huge - I would expect it to move NC State into the top 75, which would turn that Q2 win into a Q2 and the Q3 into a Q2. So effectively after cancelling out, it's a Q3 -> Q1. Next is GT over Florida State, that could be enough to move GT above 135th and remove a bad loss.

Oregon over Arizona would be huge as well, although it probably won't take the Ducks from 65th into the top 50, it should be a 10+ spot move if they can pull off a huge road upset. It would leave them within striking distance of turning that into a Q1 win.

Va Tech over Wake would be nice, a BC win over Pitt would be good but they have a lot of work to do to get into the top 75. Big game for Cornell, a win at Princeton might move them up 8-10 spots in NET. A close loss could even see them move up - same is true of Oregon.

The other thing we haven't talked about is the butterfly effect, if you will. It's not just those quadrant changes - our opponents improving their numbers means that our efficiency numbers improve as a knock-on effect. Of course the flip side is true. Even if we win by high single digits, if some of our key opponents have a poor showing, we might find ourselves just treading water or even going backwards.

Yup. We need to handle business tonight, but lots of games today that could change our resume for the better.

 

[orangenauburn]

SATURDAY 3/2
12pm Villanova at Providence - probably pull for Providence here. Not sure how Nova has such a sweet spot in NET but a Nova loss drops them to 16-13. That's an ugly visual record that people would notice if they were to make tournament.

12pm DePaul vs Butler - DePaul is hopeless unfortunately.

12pm Tulane at Florida Atlantic - Tulane

12pm Georgia Tech vs Florida St - Georgia Tech

2pm Oregon @ Arizona - Oregon

2pm Oklahoma State at Texas - Fighting Gottliebs

3:30pm LSU at Vandy - LSU

4pm NC State @ North Carolina - NC State

4pm Charlotte vs South Florida - Charlotte

5:30 Virginia Tech vs Wake Forest - Wake? Tech win helps them a lot and would be a nice win.

6pm VCU at Richmond - another tough one. VCU

6pm Georgia vs Texas A&M - Georgia from net. Both 15-13 and should be on outside looking in

6pm Boston College vs Pitt (most likely, but we don't want Pitt to drop too far - and a BC win vs UVA may get them on the right side of the line for us already) - BC

7pm Cornell @ Princeton - Cornell

7pm Asteroid to hit Kansas State at Cincinnati (both on bubble) - similar record with huge gap in NET. Pull for Cincy

8pm Boise State vs New Mexico - probably New Mexico

8pm SYRACUSE @ Louisville - Louisville. Just kidding.

10pm St. Mary's vs Gonzaga - Phruck these teams, but, Gonzaga

 

[0.2 YNdeeR]

Thanks for the breakdown. You might want to edit bad road losses (we won at the cap center against Georgetown). We also won at home against Pitt (Q2).

 

[Red2003]

Clemson better be careful on the road at Notre Dame later today. They're 4-1 lately and not like they didn't give us a run in that one loss. Those ND guards are balling lately.

The most important game is Ga Tech getting a win at FSU,, spread is 2.5. If they win and we win tonight then we cannot finish lower than a 7 seed. After that BC over Pitt at 630.

NCstate is a lost cause down the stretch to improve with UNC/Duke and then a finale Saturday night at Pitt. They're not going anywhere unless they get good matchups in the ACCT.

 

[orangenauburn]

Clemson better be careful on the road at Notre Dame later today. They're 4-1 lately and not like they didn't give us a run in that one loss. Those ND guards are balling lately.

The most important game is Ga Tech getting a win at FSU,, spread is 2.5. If they win and we win tonight then we cannot finish lower than a 7 seed. After that BC over Pitt at 630.

NCstate is a lost cause down the stretch to improve with UNC/Duke and then a finale Saturday night at Pitt. They're not going anywhere unless they get good matchups in the ACCT.

ND / Clemson screams trap game for Clemson.

I like the Irish

 

[pokercuse08]

Thanks for the breakdown. You might want to edit bad road losses (we won at the cap center against Georgetown). We also won at home against Pitt (Q2).

GT is referring to Georgia Tech, and I didn't list all the Q1/2, just the ones that could reasonably move up or down. Pitt has been around 50th, both need to maintain top-75 to hold their quadrants, and the home win needs to be top 30 to move up. That's why those aren't listed.

 

[pokercuse08]

SATURDAY 3/2
12pm Villanova at Providence - probably pull for Providence here. Not sure how Nova has such a sweet spot in NET but a Nova loss drops them to 16-13. That's an ugly visual record that people would notice if they were to make tournament.

12pm DePaul vs Butler - DePaul is hopeless unfortunately.

12pm Tulane at Florida Atlantic - Tulane

12pm Georgia Tech vs Florida St - Georgia Tech

2pm Oregon @ Arizona - Oregon

2pm Oklahoma State at Texas - Fighting Gottliebs

3:30pm LSU at Vandy - LSU

4pm NC State @ North Carolina - NC State

4pm Charlotte vs South Florida - Charlotte

5:30 Virginia Tech vs Wake Forest - Wake? Tech win helps them a lot and would be a nice win.

6pm VCU at Richmond - another tough one. VCU

6pm Georgia vs Texas A&M - Georgia from net. Both 15-13 and should be on outside looking in

6pm Boston College vs Pitt (most likely, but we don't want Pitt to drop too far - and a BC win vs UVA may get them on the right side of the line for us already) - BC

7pm Cornell @ Princeton - Cornell

7pm Asteroid to hit Kansas State at Cincinnati (both on bubble) - similar record with huge gap in NET. Pull for Cincy

8pm Boise State vs New Mexico - probably New Mexico

8pm SYRACUSE @ Louisville - Louisville. Just kidding.

10pm St. Mary's vs Gonzaga - Phruck these teams, but, Gonzaga

Just in case it wasn't clear, with the exception of the "Asteroid" games, the first team listed is the one I think we should root for.

Some are debatable - I picked VT because they are at slight risk of moving down enough to no longer be a Q2 win at home, and because we can pass Wake in the ACC standings but need help to do so.

I haven't thought too hard about the "Asteroid" games. Do we want to knock the lower teams down or muddy the waters? We have so many teams to jump, and it's probably case by case.

My first instinct is if we only need to jump one of the two to get in, root accordingly. So I agree with you, go Friars! Cinci/K State really depends on where you look, which metrics matter, etc. I think there's a slightly better case to root for Cinci but man, it's close.

On Bracket Matrix Boise St is a 9 seed, New Mexico is an 11. We should definitely root for Boise State. We don't need to jump both, and New Mexico is closer to being knocked out of the field.

 

[wiseman3]

SATURDAY 3/2
12pm Villanova at Providence - probably pull for Providence here. Not sure how Nova has such a sweet spot in NET but a Nova loss drops them to 16-13. That's an ugly visual record that people would notice if they were to make tournament.

12pm DePaul vs Butler - DePaul is hopeless unfortunately.

12pm Tulane at Florida Atlantic - Tulane

12pm Georgia Tech vs Florida St - Georgia Tech

2pm Oregon @ Arizona - Oregon

2pm Oklahoma State at Texas - Fighting Gottliebs

3:30pm LSU at Vandy - LSU

4pm NC State @ North Carolina - NC State

4pm Charlotte vs South Florida - Charlotte

5:30 Virginia Tech vs Wake Forest - Wake? Tech win helps them a lot and would be a nice win.

6pm VCU at Richmond - another tough one. VCU

6pm Georgia vs Texas A&M - Georgia from net. Both 15-13 and should be on outside looking in

6pm Boston College vs Pitt (most likely, but we don't want Pitt to drop too far - and a BC win vs UVA may get them on the right side of the line for us already) - BC

7pm Cornell @ Princeton - Cornell

7pm Asteroid to hit Kansas State at Cincinnati (both on bubble) - similar record with huge gap in NET. Pull for Cincy

8pm Boise State vs New Mexico - probably New Mexico

8pm SYRACUSE @ Louisville - Louisville. Just kidding.

10pm St. Mary's vs Gonzaga - Phruck these teams, but, Gonzaga

Why would we want Gonzaga? St Marys is a lock already to make the tourney. We want St Marys to win here

 

[orangenauburn]

Why would we want Gonzaga? St Marys is a lock already to make the tourney. We want St Marys to win here

Gonzaga is 19 NET and 50 RPI and are 4-6 Q1/2

They are most likely already in, especially with a win.

We played them - their success should help us.

The WCC should only be a two team conference.

San Fran should not get in

 

[blust2i3d4]

ND / Clemson screams trap game for Clemson.

I like the Irish

Irish and GA Tech are much better teams after mid February. Sometimes when to play a team can decide your fate regarding NCAA tournament chance.

 

[orangenauburn]

Irish and GA Tech are much better teams after mid February. Sometimes when to play a team can decide your fate regarding NCAA tournament chance.

Yup. And looking at Louisville they aren't in that scenario

We need to win by a dozen tonight

 

[wiseman3]

Gonzaga is 19 NET and 50 RPI and are 4-6 Q1/2

They are most likely already in, especially with a win.

We played them - their success should help us.

The WCC should only be a two team conference.

San Fran should not get in

I didn't realize Gonzaga was kind of off the bubble AND this is their last game. Yeah, they're safe

 

[CorduroyG]

Georgia Tech blowing out FSU. I think this is good for us, i wanna finish as high as possible in acc.

 

[Cuse181]

Georgia Tech blowing out FSU. I think this is good for us, i wanna finish as high as possible in acc.

Huge win, should push them to Q2 road loss and knock Florida state (essentially) out of contention for the 4/5 seed.

 

[Red2003]

Georgia Tech blowing out FSU. I think this is good for us, i wanna finish as high as possible in acc.

Yea this is huge for us. A win tonight and we’re guaranteed a bye in the ACCT

 

[PauliePeppas]

Providence sucks

 

[jncuse]

If you don’t think UVA is safe, we have no shot at getting in

Yes and No.

They are not a lock -- I don't think Virginia can afford to go 0-3 to close the season, especially with one bad loss in there. Just take care of business against GTech at home and they should be fine.

But I also see your point that if the committee gives no respect to Virginia, an ACC team, they won't be giving much respect to us either.

 

[jncuse]

Yea this is huge for us. A win tonight and we’re guaranteed a bye in the ACCT

Also takes our loss to them outside of "bad" territory.

A bye is nice as well. Nothing worse than a "nuisance" game in the ACC tourney, where you get no real value from winning, but get punished for losing.