ESPN Insider gives Cal a 1 in 10 chance to beat Syracuse
East
No. 4 Syracuse Orange versus No. 12 California Golden Bears
Upset chance: 10 percent
Surprisingly, despite the fact that this is a matchup between two power conference teams, the model rates a California upset as the least likely of the five Saturday GK matchups. It just doesn't buy Cal. The Bears entered the tourney with only a 5.7 GK rating and a base power rating that placed them just 57th in the country. So how did they get by UNLV?
Well, the Rebels' horrific shooting (32.2 percent) didn't help, and while the Bears didn't shoot many 3-pointers, they were efficient (5 of 11). Add in seven steals, and they did enough to generate extra possessions to get past UNLV.
But that's not Cal's game, normally. The Bears are one of the country's worst 3-point shooting teams, which doesn't bode well against Syracuse's zone. The Bears force steals at only an 8.7 percent rate. And unlike Colorado State against Louisville, they won't exploit the zone on the offensive boards -- Cal ranks just 141st in the country in that regard.
Meanwhile, we touted Syracuse's safety against Montana, behind a 92.1 Giant rating. That hasn't changed. The Orange get after it on the offensive glass (sixth in the country), hold opponents to just a 43.1 effective field goal rate and rank in the top 10 in steals percentage. Plus, with
James Southerland stroking it from deep, the Orange are turning things around on offense -- at least by the abysmal tourney standards we saw Thursday.
However, Cal should beat Syracuse in one out of every 10 matchups. So maybe, just maybe, that time could come on Saturday.