Syracuse opens up as 7.5 favs

[PauliePeppas]

Have at it

 

[upperdeck]

My wife who barely follows this stuff, first thing the car this morning asks how we are favored by this much?

 

[oli44]

Looks like it's down to 6.5 in most places.

 

[Townie72]

I can't imagine anyone wanting to bet this game given SU's erratic offensive performance.

Especially giving 7.5 or 6.5. That kind of win suggest Battle shoots well, Frank limits his TO's and we get some help from the rest. All of which could happen or maybe not.

 

[Cusefan0307]

BC has won one road game all year and that was against Hartford. KenPom has this as a 6 point spread so it’s reasonable. We should win this game 7 or 8 out of 10 times.

 

[upperdeck]

BC also has a team that was 18 down to UL and in under 4 min was 2 down.. thats 30 min of offense for our team.. BC could play awful but still make 15 3's and that might be enough.

 

[BuffOrange]

BC has won one road game all year and that was against Hartford. KenPom has this as a 6 point spread so it’s reasonable. We should win this game 7 or 8 out of 10 times.

I wish I could bet on the consensus liking the road team in every game in both sports in these threads. Could retire.

 

[orangeinnyc]

line has moved down to 6.5 on my site

 

[STEVEHOLT]

we have had a week off to rest and fix things in practice. that has to be a couple points factored in right there

 

[Cusefan0307]

I can't imagine anyone wanting to bet this game given SU's erratic offensive performance.

Especially giving 7.5 or 6.5. That kind of win suggest Battle shoots well, Frank limits his TO's and we get some help from the rest. All of which could happen or maybe not.

Easy Money. Thanks.

 

[jncuse]

I can't imagine anyone wanting to bet this game given SU's erratic offensive performance.

Especially giving 7.5 or 6.5. That kind of win suggest Battle shoots well, Frank limits his TO's and we get some help from the rest. All of which could happen or maybe not.

If something was highly certain to happen the line wouldn't be 7.5. The whole point of setting a line is to create uncertainty. Using your philosophy above no one should ever gamble at all because there will never be a line that is highly certain.

 

[Townie72]

If something was highly certain to happen the line wouldn't be 7.5. The whole point of setting a line is to create uncertainty. Using your philosophy above no one should ever gamble at all because there will never be a line that is highly certain.

The whole point of the line is to have equal betting on each side of it (and as much betting as possible). The House wants to make it's money on the vig)

The guys that I know that make money betting --- and I have known two of these guys through the years --- understand this and they win more than they lose. The most effective guy had this theory about over-valuing of teams by the masses of bettors. He used to say that teams that lose big on a weekend are never really that bad and teams that win big are never really that good.

So the only time there are certain lines are when the majority of bettors have it wrong.

But the average person really shouldn't bet or play the lottery or the slots or any of that. The odds are stacked against you and in the long run you will lose money. They didn't build those palaces in Las Vegas because people go there and win a lot.

 

[Forloveoforange]

Should anyone gamble at all? Well I guess Townie answered my question.

 

[UnknownOrange]

They were -3 at half too. Easy money

 

[Townie72]

Should anyone gamble at all? Well I guess Townie answered my question.

Do it if it's fun.

Do it if you need to have a bet on a game to have fun watching it (because the game is between two teams that you don't care about).

But you should expect to lose money over the longer term because the odds are always stacked against you. It's Statistics 101.

 

[RandygoCuse]

Do it if it's fun.

Do it if you need to have a bet on a game to have fun watching it (because the game is between two teams that you don't care about).

But you should expect to lose money over the longer term because the odds are always stacked against you. It's Statistics 101.

You're absolutely right but I feel you have a better chance of spottting inefficiencies when betting on sports than you do at cable or card games.

 

[Townie72]

You're absolutely right but I feel you have a better chance of spottting inefficiencies when betting on sports than you do at cable or card games.

I guess if you have to bet, sports is the way to go.

And I have actually seen your point in action.

A number of year's ago when we were in the Big East and I watched a lot of Big East games, I was in Las Vegas for a business meeting.

I strolled through the Sports Bet area and saw the lines for the three Big East games that were to be played that night. I was semi-stunned. I thought, "Those lines are not only wrong, they are way wrong."

I can remember thinking, "They have Providence as a 5 pt. dog against ??? and it's at Providence. There's no way they lose let alone not cover."

So I bet a three game parlay and won.

But the next several days, the line was flawlessly correct. I didn't find a game I'd touch.

In one of the first times I ever went to a horse race, I was in line waiting to place a bet on a horse I had selected based on it's name or where it was from. Behind me in line were two guys talking who seemed to have an encyclopedic knowledge of horse racing and evaluated each of the horses in the race in amazing depth.

They agreed that they were going to bet on the #5 horse or whatever. I thought, "I'd better bet on that horse too."

But then I looked down at the worn shoes of the two experts. These were not the shoes of guys who were making money at the track or anywhere else for that matter.

For the great majority, the more you gamble the more certain it is you are going to lose.

 

[jncuse]

I can remember thinking, "They have Providence as a 5 pt. dog against ??? and it's at Providence. There's no way they lose let alone not cover."

So I bet a three game parlay and won.

But the next several days, the line was flawlessly correct. I didn't find a game I'd touch.

So basically you are an expert.

 

[dasher]

The whole point of the line is to have equal betting on each side of it (and as much betting as possible). The House wants to make it's money on the vig)

The guys that I know that make money betting --- and I have known two of these guys through the years --- understand this and they win more than they lose. The most effective guy had this theory about over-valuing of teams by the masses of bettors. He used to say that teams that lose big on a weekend are never really that bad and teams that win big are never really that good.

So the only time there are certain lines are when the majority of bettors have it wrong.

But the average person really shouldn't bet or play the lottery or the slots or any of that. The odds are stacked against you and in the long run you will lose money. They didn't build those palaces in Las Vegas because people go there and win a lot.

there is a big difference between playing the slots, the lottery or any casino table game and betting on a game. No one should even play a casino table game. The odds are always against you. betting on games is a different matter. Depending on your knowledge and the sport.

 

[Townie72]

there is a big difference between playing the slots, the lottery or any casino table game and betting on a game. No one should even play a casino table game. The odds are always against you. betting on games is a different matter. Depending on your knowledge and the sport.

The vigorish stacks the odds against you. It's like rolling a first pass 2 and 3 in craps and the 00 in roulette. You play long enough or bet long enough and you are going to lose.

 

[Cusefan0307]

If you have a lot of knowledge about a particular sport and your willing to put in the time you can make a lot of money being a professional bettor. See Haralabos Voulgaris, Marco D’Angelo, and Billy Walters.

 

[dasher]

The vigorish stacks the odds against you. It's like rolling a first pass 2 and 3 in craps and the 00 in roulette. You play long enough or bet long enough and you are going to lose.

for the majority, yes. Not for everyone.

 

[690West]

there is a big difference between playing the slots, the lottery or any casino table game and betting on a game. No one should even play a casino table game. The odds are always against you. betting on games is a different matter. Depending on your knowledge and the sport.

Perfect basic strategy in BJ can get house edge down to .66%. Still guaranteed loss over time. Sports betting vig is 4.54% house edge. Yuck. That’s almost as bad as playing the field in craps.

 

[690West]

If you have a lot of knowledge about a particular sport and your willing to put in the time you can make a lot of money being a professional bettor. See Haralabos Voulgaris, Marco D’Angelo, and Billy Walters.

I understand what you’re saying, but that is like saying “you can make a lot of money playing football. See Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Aaron Rodgers”

There are 10 million people that gamble each year and a handful that are profitable Post vig. Think about that. People pretend that there are THOUSANDS of profitable net vig sports bettors out there and it’s laughably false. Frankly Blackjack, baccarat, and pass line with odds bets are waaaay better gambles although still not beatable

 

[Cusefan0307]

I understand what you’re saying, but that is like saying “you can make a lot of money playing football. See Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Aaron Rodgers”

There are 10 million people that gamble each year and a handful that are profitable Post vig. Think about that. People pretend that there are THOUSANDS of profitable net vig sports bettors out there and it’s laughably false. Frankly Blackjack, baccarat, and pass line with odds bets are waaaay better gambles although still not beatable

My point to was to townie comparing sports betting to slot machines. Slot machines are the worst form of gambling there is. I agree with you otherwise.