The ACC will exist for as long as UNC wants it to exist. If FSU and Clemson leave then it might speed that decision up, but who is taking FSU and Clemson? The SEC could but then it drives Miami, GA Tech, UNC, Duke, UVA, Pitt, SU, BC, and ND to the B1G. Also do they really want to go that many? The B1G could but then they risk waiting for UNC while having 2 extreme outliers who are not academic fits. Also is it worth it to go that large of a conference? Conferences might decide to cap at 16. Which would make the ACC safe.
Wake and maybe Louisville are the only schools that have to worry. The rest will find homes.
You see Alsacs as far too pessimistic, and he sees you as naively optimistic. I lean to the pessimistic side.
I know BT history, and BT history screams that the BT will do anything it takes to remain the richest and to be seen by many as the best, in football especially. The BT tried to boycott ND to keep the nasty catholic school from gaining from such august company. The BT bribed the Pac to close the Rose Bowl to end competition so the BT could claim being super unique and therefore better than everybody not able to get to the Rose. The BT even acted to destroy MAC radio networks before TV became King to have monopoly over the midwest in electric media. The BT added PSU from the northeast only because the old TV deal for CFB gave the BT the entire northeast, to the great detriment to teams in the northeast.
BT football is far behind SEC football. Football became Modern only around 1970, when everybody was integrated. Since then, how many football National Championships have BT teams won? In that same time, how many football ACC National Championships (7 - 1 by GT, 3 by Clemson, 3 by FSU)? You don't even have to use the SEC to show how far back BT football is - the ACC makes the case very well. And the BT
hates that as much as it hates the SEC having largely caught up in money.
So it is extremely naive to assume that the BT is not planning some way to secure its money that also raises its odds of getting better at football across the board and especially among its top 2 or 3. And that now that can be done only by expansion well beyond 16 members. Even if the BT had been able to add OU and Texas, it still would have lagged behind the SEC in football quality.
The BT has only 2 avenues to take. One is to get deeply into the South by taking at least 6 ACC teams. The other is to add ND and probably at least 7 Pac schools: SC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, and Washington are musts in that scenario, while UAZ, AZ St, and Colorado are viable options. So by absorbing most of the Pac, the BT could reach 24 members and 'own' all that CA talent.
Geographically, the best move for the BT would be able to take 9 ACC schools located in the South and also ND, for a 24 team league all in Eastern Time. That league would absolutely own CBB and be the full equal of SEC football very quickly and be able to keep pace with SEC baseball, as well as dominate thee nation in non-water non-revenue sports.
Yes, the BT would expand to 24 to get all that.
Yes, the SEC would add 8 ACC schools to go to 24 and stop the BT from getting planted in the South.
ACC football has only 2 schools with truly large fan bases: FSU and Clemson. If the ACC loses those two, the value of ACC football plummets. Both SEC and BT know that. So do ESPN, Fox, CBS, and NBC.