The alliance scheduling agreement already looks dead in football

[HRE Otto IV]

Duke is not part of a package. When the ACC implosion seemed imminent, all the talk was just UNC and UVa moving as a pair. No one ever mentioned Duke. WoadBlue can correct me if I'm wrong. Duke is basketball and lacrosse. K has retired and Danowski will retire in a couple of years. There will be fall-offs. How many NWerns does the B1G want/need? How many Vandys does the SEC want/need?

Duke academically is a big asset for the B1G. They also have a great BBall brand. That won't change. Even with a few down years. If we are talking a 24+ team league, having Northwestern and Duke isn't an issue. It is not like the B1G would be a 12 team league by adding Duke.

I do not think the SEC wants anything to do with Duke. Nor does Duke want anything to do with the SEC.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Your take is that ESPN is so pissy about the playoffs that they'll let the ACC die?

IMO the ACC dying is inevitable. The only chance of survival is FSU, Clemson, and Miami all being Top 15 teams at the same time, AND Notre Dame football deciding to join the ACC. Otherwise the money won't be there to close the gap with the B1G/SEC.

 

[Bayside44]

I am a UNC grad. And clearly you understand very little about what I am trying to tell you and others. A basketball-first fan position makes it very hard for people to fully grasp what is going on and why, and being a northeasterner also hurts, because the last time that the region as a region truly mattered to Major College football was right after WW2.

Once again I'll try to help you understand key dynamics that matter to UNC. About a decade ago, the Ram's Club did a survey of what its members thought of other Major Conferences, including in terms of possible UNC membership. Among those who identified as football-first fans, it ran about 9-1 for the SEC over the BT.

That was before UNC people saw how duplicitous the BT is with its signed secrecy contract with Maryland and its advice for Maryland to hire people to go online as Maryland fans blaming the ACC for Maryland's many failures. That alone changed a number of UNC admin and faculty views about BT sports.

Even at UNC, football is simply bigger and brings in more money. The UNC football boosters are not going to want to be in the BT, ever. And because they understand the endless appeal of SEC football, they are never going to rest while NCSU is in the SEC and they are not. Quite simply, if NCSU is SEC, its football will overlap UNC/BT football rather quickly.

UNC's athletics department can withstand ESPN grossly underpaying the ACC for another decade, but neither Clemson nor FSU will be able to without losing fairly significant ground. GT will fall even farther behind UGA. ACC football must have both Clemson and FSU (the only SEC-sized and SEC-style football fan bases we have) or else its loses much of its appeal to national TV viewers.

And the SEC, with ESPN backing, will offer both in order to keep the BT out of the South.

I'm married into a Ram's Club family and completely agree with this.

Otherwise this thread is making expansion more complicated than WW2.

 

[Chip]

I'm married into a Ram's Club family and completely agree with this.

Otherwise this thread is making expansion more complicated than WW2.

Yeah, I was going to post a Seinfeld/Risk gif, but not really the time.

 

[baggerbob]

Your take is that ESPN is so pissy about the playoffs that they'll let the ACC die?

By getting the SEC to take Texas, and Oklahoma ESPN has pretty much deserted the ACC.
They will continue to get ACC on the cheap until the contract runs out, or the ACC dissolves.

 

[Chris02M]

It’s not just SEC vs B1G.
It’s Fox vs. ESPN.

ESPN is going to get what it wants.
I am just trying to explain.
The ACC basically created a time bomb if they pissed ESPN off. And yes it I guarantee the ACC has pissed ESPN off by how it has voted and who it has aligned with over the company that owns it.
The ACC needed to align with ESPN and done everything it could to cyber rattle Notre Dame. They didn’t and now its a timebomb.

I see it for what it is. We aren’t going to get 24 team conferences.
ESPN will squeeze what it wants and the SEC will do it.

Big Ten may add scraps or whatever is leftover will be on the market and basically become another Big XII from tbe ACC schools.

seriously doubt espn really cares since they got texas and oklahoma and the bigten and pac 12 were against expansion so it wasnt going to go through right now. and stop with the we pissed espn off bs

 

[Chris02M]

They already have the content cheap through 2036, why would they pay more?
There is nothing the ACC can do now.

i will give you a real world situation that would be similar. Why would your boss pay you more when your doing the same amount of work as when hired?

 

[Alsacs]

seriously doubt espn really cares since they got texas and oklahoma and the bigten and pac 12 were against expansion so it wasnt going to go through right now. and stop with the we pissed espn off bs

You can seriously doubt whatever you want.
Be optimistic. I will actually believe how big business behaves.

ESPN won’t forget this. They will continue to take advantage of a favorable deal then when time comes won’t forget.

 

[Chris02M]

You can seriously doubt whatever you want.
Be optimistic. I will actually believe how big business behaves.

ESPN won’t forget this. They will continue to take advantage of a favorable deal then when time comes won’t forget.

Im not necessarily optimistic, im more common sense in that we are way down the line of things espn really cares about and by the time we actually came up for discussion things could be completely different, what if espn loses bigten and pac 12 rights they have now

 

[TheCusian]

IMO the ACC dying is inevitable. The only chance of survival is FSU, Clemson, and Miami all being Top 15 teams at the same time, AND Notre Dame football deciding to join the ACC. Otherwise the money won't be there to close the gap with the B1G/SEC.

That ain’t death. I’m pretty certain it’s just a different tier and that is just codifying what’s already true

 

[TheCusian]

By getting the SEC to take Texas, and Oklahoma ESPN has pretty much deserted the ACC.
They will continue to get ACC on the cheap until the contract runs out, or the ACC dissolves.

They are just chasing eyeballs. It’s all good. The ACC is what it is - 3rd or 4th best league. There’s always money for our games. If the rest of CFB wants to cut out the coasts, it will be to their disadvantage.

The SEC and B1G should be looking for ways to solidify the sport nationally not cut out huge swaths of fans. Greed will cause them to cut their noses of to despite their face. They already have the talent and eyeballs. It’s just greed to push further.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

That ain’t death. I’m pretty certain it’s just a different tier and that is just codifying what’s already true

It is death if the $ gap is too big because FSU and Clemson will leave. That will set off a domino effect. Worst case for SU those 2 schools go to the SEC and the B1G doesn't add to the Northeast. Meaning we are stuck behind in the 5th best conference that looks more like the New Big East than the ACC. Best case those 2 schools go to the B1G along with most of the ACC including SU.



Edit

Worst case

P12 expands East taking Houston, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, UNLV
B12 fills with Memphis, USF, Colorado State
FSU, Clemson, UNC, UVA to the SEC
Notre Dame and Kansas to the B1G
B12 fills with Louisville
Temple, UConn, and Liberty to the ACC

New ACC
UConn, Temple, Liberty, SU, BC, Pitt, VA Tech, NC State, Duke, Wake, GA Tech, Miami

That is barely better than the AAC.

 

[kcsu]

By the time the deal expires there will be a slew of new players with Amazon and other streaming giants leading the way. Don't think for a minute that cord cutting isn't going to be a major issue. The ACC will be fine it will either receive a significant increase from the Mouse or it will find a new home. Also, by that time i expect that NIL and the other wild west issues facing college athletics will have been addressed. The ACC isn't going away and isn't going to become irrelevant.

 

[TheCusian]

It is death if the $ gap is too big because FSU and Clemson will leave. That will set off a domino effect. Worst case for SU those 2 schools go to the SEC and the B1G doesn't add to the Northeast. Meaning we are stuck behind in the 5th best conference that looks more like the New Big East than the ACC. Best case those 2 schools go to the B1G along with most of the ACC including SU.



Edit

Worst case

P12 expands East taking Houston, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, UNLV
B12 fills with Memphis, USF, Colorado State
FSU, Clemson, UNC, UVA to the SEC
Notre Dame and Kansas to the B1G
B12 fills with SMU
Temple and UConn to the ACC

New ACC
UConn, Temple, SU, BC, Pitt, Louisville, VA Tech, NC State, Duke, Wake, GA Tech, Miami

These things always suppose that our place in the hierarchy is that changed. There’s money and talent enough for 4-5 conferences, everything else is moving stuff around to make the sport more boring and/or more corrupt.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

These things always suppose that our place in the hierarchy is that changed. There’s money and talent enough for 4-5 conferences, everything else is moving stuff around to make the sport more boring and/or more corrupt.

No one is going to pay major money for a conference without brands. If the ACC loses its football brands it will become another AAC. No one is paying for that.

 

[HtownOrange]

Before you figure out everything over the next 50!years, please remember that power shifts over time. The SEC has not always been king. ACc hoops has not always been king. ESPN was a podunk Connecticut local sports show on cable access. Fox sports did not exist when the Big East ruled hoops. Lol ve streaming was not a thing 20 years ago and only recently has been good enough for the masses to consider switching.

Also remember that ESPN is and has been underpaying all conferences. You could not get the massive increases unless the money was already there.

At one time the world economy went as GM went. Now, GM is a blip on the economy radar, not much more. IBM ruled business machines, while still a major player, there are far more options.

Further, the conference deals are small potatoes in the big picture of running a major university. Rutgers lost $73mm, which was roughly 2% of the operating budget for the NJ State University system. About 4%-5% of the Rutgers U. Budget, and they don't care. All P5 schools operate in a different stratosphere than we fans operate in. The losses are merely advertising costs to keep the name out there. And several schools make money! Conference realignment will only happen if it makes sense on many fronts.

UT and OU leaving the Big12 shows there are no substantive ties with other schools and the money was a factor because they were the only programs worth supporting. That becomes an easy decision. UNC, UVA, GATech, et al all have significant ties with each other than the Big12 had. Likewise, SEC, B1G and PAC schools have tighter relations with each other. Busting up the conferences will not be as easy as it seems on paper.

Those pretending to know with absolute certainty what the conferences will do or be in 10, 20, 30, 59 years are not as well informed as can be.

Best of luck in your prognostications. Remember, we were told by several posters on here that OU was married to OSU, UT would not go anywhere without TTU, Baylor and TCU. Guess what, they were wrong.

Now we are told that the B1G and SEC will be the only yeo conferences standing, that the PAC and the ACC will be decimated and half the U.S. population will be ignored by CFB. People watch CFB for their team(s), not just for Alabama and Clemson.

Speculation is fun. However, some go to far and make it dogma. I speculate that the universities and conferences will merge into one deal like the pros, but I will not get dogmatic about it. I don't attack other posters for disagreeing. Anyway, have at it, but keep it fun. Don't make it personal.

Just one opinion from one poster.

 

[Bayside44]

Before you figure out everything over the next 50!years, please remember that power shifts over time. The SEC has not always been king. ACc hoops has not always been king. ESPN was a podunk Connecticut local sports show on cable access. Fox sports did not exist when the Big East ruled hoops. Lol ve streaming was not a thing 20 years ago and only recently has been good enough for the masses to consider switching.

Also remember that ESPN is and has been underpaying all conferences. You could not get the massive increases unless the money was already there.

At one time the world economy went as GM went. Now, GM is a blip on the economy radar, not much more. IBM ruled business machines, while still a major player, there are far more options.

Further, the conference deals are small potatoes in the big picture of running a major university. Rutgers lost $73mm, which was roughly 2% of the operating budget for the NJ State University system. About 4%-5% of the Rutgers U. Budget, and they don't care. All P5 schools operate in a different stratosphere than we fans operate in. The losses are merely advertising costs to keep the name out there. And several schools make money! Conference realignment will only happen if it makes sense on many fronts.

UT and OU leaving the Big12 shows there are no substantive ties with other schools and the money was a factor because they were the only programs worth supporting. That becomes an easy decision. UNC, UVA, GATech, et al all have significant ties with each other than the Big12 had. Likewise, SEC, B1G and PAC schools have tighter relations with each other. Busting up the conferences will not be as easy as it seems on paper.

Those pretending to know with absolute certainty what the conferences will do or be in 10, 20, 30, 59 years are not as well informed as can be.

Best of luck in your prognostications. Remember, we were told by several posters on here that OU was married to OSU, UT would not go anywhere without TTU, Baylor and TCU. Guess what, they were wrong.

Now we are told that the B1G and SEC will be the only yeo conferences standing, that the PAC and the ACC will be decimated and half the U.S. population will be ignored by CFB. People watch CFB for their team(s), not just for Alabama and Clemson.

Speculation is fun. However, some go to far and make it dogma. I speculate that the universities and conferences will merge into one deal like the pros, but I will not get dogmatic about it. I don't attack other posters for disagreeing. Anyway, have at it, but keep it fun. Don't make it personal.

Just one opinion from one poster.

Great post!

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Before you figure out everything over the next 50!years, please remember that power shifts over time. The SEC has not always been king. ACc hoops has not always been king. ESPN was a podunk Connecticut local sports show on cable access. Fox sports did not exist when the Big East ruled hoops. Lol ve streaming was not a thing 20 years ago and only recently has been good enough for the masses to consider switching.

Also remember that ESPN is and has been underpaying all conferences. You could not get the massive increases unless the money was already there.

At one time the world economy went as GM went. Now, GM is a blip on the economy radar, not much more. IBM ruled business machines, while still a major player, there are far more options.

Further, the conference deals are small potatoes in the big picture of running a major university. Rutgers lost $73mm, which was roughly 2% of the operating budget for the NJ State University system. About 4%-5% of the Rutgers U. Budget, and they don't care. All P5 schools operate in a different stratosphere than we fans operate in. The losses are merely advertising costs to keep the name out there. And several schools make money! Conference realignment will only happen if it makes sense on many fronts.

UT and OU leaving the Big12 shows there are no substantive ties with other schools and the money was a factor because they were the only programs worth supporting. That becomes an easy decision. UNC, UVA, GATech, et al all have significant ties with each other than the Big12 had. Likewise, SEC, B1G and PAC schools have tighter relations with each other. Busting up the conferences will not be as easy as it seems on paper.

Those pretending to know with absolute certainty what the conferences will do or be in 10, 20, 30, 59 years are not as well informed as can be.

Best of luck in your prognostications. Remember, we were told by several posters on here that OU was married to OSU, UT would not go anywhere without TTU, Baylor and TCU. Guess what, they were wrong.

Now we are told that the B1G and SEC will be the only yeo conferences standing, that the PAC and the ACC will be decimated and half the U.S. population will be ignored by CFB. People watch CFB for their team(s), not just for Alabama and Clemson.

Speculation is fun. However, some go to far and make it dogma. I speculate that the universities and conferences will merge into one deal like the pros, but I will not get dogmatic about it. I don't attack other posters for disagreeing. Anyway, have at it, but keep it fun. Don't make it personal.

Just one opinion from one poster.

That is totally ignoring the influence $ has had the last 20 years and totally ignores the size of fanbases. SU isn't ever going to need a 100k stadium and isn't ever going to have the war chest that other schools do. Same can be said for 75% of the ACC, B12, P12.

Very few of the non B1G/SEC schools have a chance to grow into a power. There isn't the support. It is naive to ignore that.

 

[orangecuse]

Before you figure out everything over the next 50!years, please remember that power shifts over time. The SEC has not always been king. ACc hoops has not always been king. ESPN was a podunk Connecticut local sports show on cable access. Fox sports did not exist when the Big East ruled hoops. Lol ve streaming was not a thing 20 years ago and only recently has been good enough for the masses to consider switching.

Also remember that ESPN is and has been underpaying all conferences. You could not get the massive increases unless the money was already there.

At one time the world economy went as GM went. Now, GM is a blip on the economy radar, not much more. IBM ruled business machines, while still a major player, there are far more options.

Further, the conference deals are small potatoes in the big picture of running a major university. Rutgers lost $73mm, which was roughly 2% of the operating budget for the NJ State University system. About 4%-5% of the Rutgers U. Budget, and they don't care. All P5 schools operate in a different stratosphere than we fans operate in. The losses are merely advertising costs to keep the name out there. And several schools make money! Conference realignment will only happen if it makes sense on many fronts.

UT and OU leaving the Big12 shows there are no substantive ties with other schools and the money was a factor because they were the only programs worth supporting. That becomes an easy decision. UNC, UVA, GATech, et al all have significant ties with each other than the Big12 had. Likewise, SEC, B1G and PAC schools have tighter relations with each other. Busting up the conferences will not be as easy as it seems on paper.

Those pretending to know with absolute certainty what the conferences will do or be in 10, 20, 30, 59 years are not as well informed as can be.

Best of luck in your prognostications. Remember, we were told by several posters on here that OU was married to OSU, UT would not go anywhere without TTU, Baylor and TCU. Guess what, they were wrong.

Now we are told that the B1G and SEC will be the only yeo conferences standing, that the PAC and the ACC will be decimated and half the U.S. population will be ignored by CFB. People watch CFB for their team(s), not just for Alabama and Clemson.

Speculation is fun. However, some go to far and make it dogma. I speculate that the universities and conferences will merge into one deal like the pros, but I will not get dogmatic about it. I don't attack other posters for disagreeing. Anyway, have at it, but keep it fun. Don't make it personal.

Just one opinion from one poster.

Solid post.

My dad, who is still around at aged 92, worked for GM for some 40 years or so. When things started going south, I remember him saying how GM at one time had nearly 60% of the market share. Crazy.

Nowadays, he hardly has any good things to say about them, although, I think it still pains him deep down.

 

[HtownOrange]

That is totally ignoring the influence $ has had the last 20 years and totally ignores the size of fanbases. SU isn't ever going to need a 100k stadium and isn't ever going to have the war chest that other schools do. Same can be said for 75% of the ACC, B12, P12.

Very few of the non B1G/SEC schools have a chance to grow into a power. There isn't the support. It is naive to ignore that.

You missed my points about GM, a shadow of it's former self, ESPN a fledgling local cable channel, Fox Sports not existing, but nevermind. You missed the fact that Rutgers can take a $73MM loss annually as mere advertising expense. O.k.

The money aspect you are speaking of is minimal. P5 universities are multi BILLION dollar entities. You are over emphasizing a line item to these schools. P.S. Rutgers is no research giant. Most B1G schools and the old line ACC schools could suffer a $73MM loss with far less impact than Rutgers and they are all more financially sound in their respective AD operations with most making money or near break even.

Anyway, have fun.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

You missed my points about GM, a shadow of it's former self, ESPN a fledgling local cable channel, Fox Sports not existing, but nevermind. You missed the fact that Rutgers can take a $73MM loss annually as mere advertising expense. O.k.

The money aspect you are speaking of is minimal. P5 universities are multi BILLION dollar entities. You are over emphasizing a line item to these schools. P.S. Rutgers is no research giant. Most B1G schools and the old line ACC schools could suffer a $73MM loss with far less impact than Rutgers and they are all more financially sound in their respective AD operations with most making money or near break even.

Anyway, have fun.

Schools have budgets they aren’t going to use non athletic funds to keep up. Your other points are really bad analogies.

 

[longtimefan]

Schools have budgets they aren’t going to use non athletic funds to keep up. Your other points are really bad analogies.

I believe Rutgers is using non-athletic funds to prop up their Dept. of Athletics.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I believe Rutgers is using non-athletic funds to prop up their Dept. of Athletics.

Based on what? Scholarships and facility taxes are not real cash. A kid on a football scholarship isn’t taking money out of the general fund. It is forgoing income from a regular student. Funds are not coming in. That is a huge difference from taking money from the general fund to improve the football facility or to increase coaches pay.

If a team in the ACC is making $25M less than a team in the B1G it is actual money. Name me a school willing to take $25M out of their general fund to spend it on football?

 

[All4SU]

It is death if the $ gap is too big because FSU and Clemson will leave. That will set off a domino effect. Worst case for SU those 2 schools go to the SEC and the B1G doesn't add to the Northeast. Meaning we are stuck behind in the 5th best conference that looks more like the New Big East than the ACC. Best case those 2 schools go to the B1G along with most of the ACC including SU.



Edit

Worst case

P12 expands East taking Houston, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, UNLV
B12 fills with Memphis, USF, Colorado State
FSU, Clemson, UNC, UVA to the SEC
Notre Dame and Kansas to the B1G
B12 fills with Louisville
Temple, UConn, and Liberty to the ACC

New ACC
UConn, Temple, Liberty, SU, BC, Pitt, VA Tech, NC State, Duke, Wake, GA Tech, Miami

That is barely better than the AAC.

I don’t see a world where Memphis, Temple, Houston, USF, Colorado State, UNLV and Louisville are playing big time CFB, but Pitt, BC, SU, Miami, GTech, VTech, NC St, and Miami are not

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I don’t see a world where Memphis, Temple, Houston, USF, Colorado State, UNLV and Louisville are playing big time CFB, but Pitt, BC, SU, Miami, GTech, VTech, NC St, and Miami are not

The B12 wouldn’t be big time football. So most of that list isn’t in that world.