The Annual Bubble Discussion Thread - 2021 Version

[Briancuse]

Im curious how the committee looks at canceled games, we had three marquee games canceled fsu at home and lville twice. We win one of those games we are close to 50 pct, we win 2 of them we are a lock right now.

 

[721Comstock]

I think more like (total ACCT wins):

0 = 33%
1 = 66%
2 = 95%
3 = 99%
4 = 100%

Yeah, this is similar to what I posted.

0 ACCT wins is NOT a 0% chance.
That ignores what is going in with all of the other teams on the bubble, many of whom are falling backwards, while we remain where we are.

2 or more wins = virtual lock.
Given that at a minimum, that 2nd win would be a VERY tough ranked opponent on a neutral floor
= Quad 1.

 

[721Comstock]

Im curious how the committee looks at canceled games, we had three marquee games canceled fsu at home and lville twice. We win one of those games we are close to 50 pct, we win 2 of them we are a lock right now.

You cannot look at things that didn't happen. They didn't happen.

 

[upperdeck]

you also assume that MSU isnt gonna lose 2 more.
Yup they played well like 3-4 games all yr and good or them 2 of them were when it mattered. Mich lost to minn by 20 some how too.

its not that on a day MSU can play well, its that half the season they played like crap.

I am all for a rule if you finish under .500 over all or X games under .500 in your league you cant get an at large.. they have the rule for Lax and Hockey and other sports..

 

[STL_CuseFan]

Just read this on ESPN:

Syracuse Orange
Say hello to the season's first new member of the impressive Bubble Watch club. No, Syracuse isn't here by virtue of its most recent result (a victory at home over Boston College). The win at home over Virginia Tech is this profile's strongest bullet point, and, despite being swept by Pitt, Jim Boeheim's 12-6 team is the equal of North Carolina in the NET rankings and superior to several bubble teams in terms of strength of record. Now, the bad news for the Orange faithful: Syracuse is, as our colleague Joe Lunardi likes to say, "on the bubble of the bubble." The Orange will have to overtake competitors such as Saint Louis, Richmond and Maryland to actually earn an at-large bid. But the Cuse is in the discussion.

Jerry Palm has Cuse as the 2nd team out and I feel he's always right on them. I am from St. Louis and Jerry has them as the last team in. They are beating the hell out of UMass right now and they already beat the Bonnies pretty easily earlier in the season. I think SLU gets in. We should 100% be rooting for Dayton to beat VCU. Richmond already lost so they're out.

 

[Briancuse]

you also assume that MSU isnt gonna lose 2 more.
Yup they played well like 3-4 games all yr and good or them 2 of them were when it mattered. Mich lost to minn by 20 some how too.

its not that on a day MSU can play well, its that half the season they played like crap.

I am all for a rule if you finish under .500 over all or X games under .500 in your league you cant get an at large.. they have the rule for Lax and Hockey and other sports..

No idea who they would play in the Big Ten tourney, but they are losing Sunday to Michigan.

 

[Cusefan0307]

If Rutgers loses the next two they won't, they haven't done squat since beating Purdue in December.

They are in easily. It doesn't matter when wins happen anymore. They haven't gone by the last 10 games in at least 10 years.

 

[orangefog]

Jerry Palm has Cuse as the 2nd team out and I feel he's always right on them. I am from St. Louis and Jerry has them as the last team in. They are beating the hell out of UMass right now and they already beat the Bonnies pretty easily earlier in the season. I think SLU gets in. We should 100% be rooting for Dayton to beat VCU. Richmond already lost so they're out.

One call from Biden and we’re in.

 

[upperdeck]

No idea who they would play in the Big Ten tourney, but they are losing Sunday to Michigan.

unless Mich does them a solid after clinching last night and plays sloppy.

 

[Briancuse]

They are in easily. It doesn't matter when wins happen anymore. They haven't gone by the last 10 games in at least 10 years.

No chance, they just lost to one of the worst teams in college bball, you think they are a lock at 13-12? What have they done since December. They need another win to seal the deal.

 

[upperdeck]

They are in easily. It doesn't matter when wins happen anymore. They haven't gone by the last 10 games in at least 10 years.

they still look at that stuff just dont use it as a metric anymore for complaints. if they used it Wisc would be out too.

 

[Briancuse]

unless Mich does them a solid after clinching last night and plays sloppy.

You ever see the Mich st/Michigan rivalry show on Big Ten Network, no one does a solid in that rivalry.

 

[syrBossHogg]

I really think it's going to be SU vs Mich St in one of the First Four games

 

[Briancuse]

I really think it's going to be SU vs Mich St in one of the First Four games

Sign me up.

 

[upperdeck]

Rutgers loses to Minn and then in B10 is right there on the bubble. teams with 5 and 3 game losing streak but some good wins . ILL is the only reason a couple teams are even discussion with those loses to Rut/Mary/MSU keeping them all alive.

 

[Alsacs]

FYI Duke was a 2 seed that year and FSU was a 3 seed

Tatum was a 2 seed? I thought they were a 3 that year and lost to Mercer first round.
Must have mixed up years.

 

[syrBossHogg]

Tatum was a 2 seed? I thought they were a 3 that year and lost to Mercer first round.
Must have mixed up years.

Yep the Mercer loss was in 2014. In 2017 Duke lost to South Carolina in the 2nd round

 

[samspann1]

Ouch

 

[jdubs30]

Lol sounds like Eamon had a bone to pick

 

[Briancuse]

Rutgers loses to Minn and then in B10 is right there on the bubble. teams with 5 and 3 game losing streak but some good wins . ILL is the only reason a couple teams are even discussion with those loses to Rut/Mary/MSU keeping them all alive.

Rutgers hasn't beaten a good team in the New Year. Someone explain to me how a 13-12 team on a 3 game losing streak one of those losses be in Nebraska is a lock?

 

[Orangezoo]

Based upon the current state of the bubble and BE and A10 teams it's looking like one win would put us in prime position. Two wins and we are in no questions asked.

 

[orange79]

Rutgers hasn't beaten a good team in the New Year. Someone explain to me how a 13-12 team on a 3 game losing streak one of those losses be in Nebraska is a lock?

You know I'm not a Rutgers apologist, but to be fair, they're 13-10, with 4 Q1 wins. And 37 in the NET rankings. That's nothing to sneeze at.

They won at MD and beat #4 Illinois. And they have only lost 1 in a row (they beat Indiana last week).

I'm not on the "they're a lock" train, but they are certainly near the front of the line for a ticket.

 

[Briancuse]

You know I'm not a Rutgers apologist, but to be fair, they're 13-10, with 4 Q1 wins. And 37 in the NET rankings. That's nothing to sneeze at.

They won at MD and beat #4 Illinois. And they have only lost 1 in a row (they beat Indiana last week).

I'm not on the "they're a lock" train, but they are certainly near the front of the line for a ticket.

Not saying they won't get in if the season ended today. I'm saying they lose their next two and they are in trouble.

 

[orange79]

Not saying they won't get in if the season ended today. I'm saying they lose their next two and they are in trouble.

Ah, ok, that's what you meant by 13-12. Got it.

 

[upperdeck]

You know I'm not a Rutgers apologist, but to be fair, they're 13-10, with 4 Q1 wins. And 37 in the NET rankings. That's nothing to sneeze at.

They won at MD and beat #4 Illinois. And they have only lost 1 in a row (they beat Indiana last week).

I'm not on the "they're a lock" train, but they are certainly near the front of the line for a ticket.

again the Net has Colgate at #9.. so how do you use it for anything.. All it took was a few good wins in week 1-2 and then play a million games against itself and few on itself.. there are not enough meaningful OC games to make Net mean anything this yr.