The Annual Bubble Discussion Thread - 2021 Version

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[Marty McFly]

too bad they didn't play, drake would have been out of the ncaa's due to covid protocol (not that I want anyone to get COVID)...

 

[orange79]

again the Net has Colgate at #9.. so how do you use it for anything.. All it took was a few good wins in week 1-2 and then play a million games against itself and few on itself.. there are not enough meaningful OC games to make Net mean anything this yr.

I agree, the NET has issues.

But it's what the committee uses, so it makes sense for us to use it as a comparison when discussion the bubble.

 

[orange79]

Ah, so this has become another uni thread.

Drink!

 

[Marty McFly]

would this be the year the committee follows the computer numbers more than usual? instead of eye test, or other subjective criteria? Would make a whole lotta sense to me.

 

[upperdeck]

Imagine how this works.. there is no upside really to who wins the ACC . FSU isnt going up much winning it but they can do down losing it.. Just forfiet all the way thru for SU and get a bubble team into the tourney and net millions..

 

[Cuse69]

You just don't make the tournament when you are .500 or barely 1-2 games above it. Find a team in recent years that got an at large being 1-2 games over .500, I can't remember it. If minnesota or MSU gets in that would be ridiculous IMO

 

[Alsacs]

You just don't make the tournament when you are .500 or barely 1-2 games above it. Find a team in recent years that got an at large being 1-2 games over .500, I can't remember it. If minnesota or MSU gets in that would be ridiculous IMO

Georgia 2000-2001 made the tournament as a 9 seed with a 16-14 record.

 

[Cuse69]

Georgia 2000-2001 made the tournament as a 9 seed with a 16-14 record.

1 team in 20 years, I wouldn't be that worried about them, MN has lost a lot of games in a row. I'd figure they at a minimum need to go 3-1 in the BIG tourney, would a MSU win over UM do the trick for them... hopefully we don't have to find out

 

[orange79]

Georgia 2000-2001 made the tournament as a 9 seed with a 16-14 record.

Mid-to-late 80's, Ga Tech made the tournament with a similar record (and won a game, IIRC).

Edit: They made the tourney in 87 with a 16-13 record. Then, they made the tourney in 91 with a 17-13 (but under .500 record in the ACC) and won a game.

 

[Chris02M]

You just don't make the tournament when you are .500 or barely 1-2 games above it. Find a team in recent years that got an at large being 1-2 games over .500, I can't remember it. If minnesota or MSU gets in that would be ridiculous IMO

in a normal year there are cream puffs non conference games to inflate there records

 

[20plus]

I agree, the NET has issues.

But it's what the committee uses, so it makes sense for us to use it as a comparison when discussion the bubble.

The committee does not use the net for anything but categorizing wins and losses they don’t use it for your résumé it’s not even on the team sheet

 

[20plus]

Wester Kentucky loses they are out!

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

Colorado State loses

 

[20plus]

Colorado state loses!! Huuuugggge!!

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

Wester Kentucky loses they are out!

Not sure how this helps? Isn’t CUSA a one bid league

 

[20plus]

Umass vs St Louis-LOSS
**Northern Iowa vs Drake-No game
**Dayton vs VCU-LOSS
Georgia Tech @ **Wake Forest -Loss
Colorado State @ **Nevada-Win
**Duquesne vs St Bonaventure -Lost
**Charlotte vs Marshall-lost
**Old Dominion vs Western Kentucky -Win
**Ball State vs Toledo- Loss

• Having Colorado State lose was huge that was second most important next to St. Louis
• most others are not surprises or critical at this time based on
• those teams projections
• and who they were playing
• and what they have next

 

[20plus]

Not sure how this helps? Isn’t CUSA a one bid league

Hurts their potential at-large if they weren’t to win their league

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

Hurts their potential at-large if they weren’t to win their league

Ah right. I mistakenly thought it was a conference tournament loss

 

[jncuse]

You just don't make the tournament when you are .500 or barely 1-2 games above it. Find a team in recent years that got an at large being 1-2 games over .500, I can't remember it. If minnesota or MSU gets in that would be ridiculous IMO

Teams played less cupcake / mid tier OOC Games this year. So you can't compare games over .500 this year vs prior year.

 

[Bball44]

The committee does not use the net for anything but categorizing wins and losses they don’t use it for your résumé it’s not even on the team sheet

Doe that mean Colgate would not get an at-large if they lose in conference tournament?

 

[Cusefan0307]

We are in the last 4 out now on the Matrix.

Team we should be rooting against:

Sparty
Boise State
Drake
xavier
Wichita State
Seton Hall
Utah State
St Louis
SMU
Duke

 

[kcsu]

For SU its simple.

Win 2 games 100% in
Win 1 game need some help.
Lose and we are out.

 

[20plus]

For SU its simple.

Win 2 games 100% in
Win 1 game need some help.
Lose and we are out.

On a fundamental level this is true.

However a reminder that people thought (before we beat Wake Forest ACCT a few years ago) we had to win A minimum two if not three games!

We beat Wake and then lost to North Carolina and still made it because the bubble flat out dropped.

The whole point for me in this bubble watch is if we don’t win two what can we track, route for and have rooting interest in to still make it. Which I think is what you’re saying.

 

[20plus]

We are in the last 4 out now on the Matrix.

Team we should be rooting against:

Sparty
Boise State
Drake
xavier
Wichita State
Seton Hall
Utah State
St Louis
SMU
Duke

Rutgers @ *Minnesota
Indiana @ *Purdue
Duke @ *UNC
St Louis vs *St Bonaventure

Utah State @ *Fresno State
Xavier @ *Marquette
Seton Hall @ *St John’s
Drake vs *Missouri State

VCU vs *Davidson
*Georgetown @ Connecticut
*Virginia @ Louisville

*Charlotte vs Marshall
*Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss
*Old Dominion @ Western Kentucky