The Annual Bubble Discussion Thread - 2021 Version

[bballbeadle]

Someone agrees with Alsacs that Syracuse will get a bye. Sweet. That would be nice.

6 pm can’t come fast enough.

Lucky for us, it is coming an hour faster!

 

[bpo57]

Man Bill Walton is brutal to listen to

especially if u care about the game that he is doing. The game is a sideshow to him. Walton, Dicky V and Dakich are mute only for me. They strangle a game with non-stop chatter. Less can be more.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[20plus]

This year it makes sense things could be a little off the rails. Palm as a comp sci guy is usually numbers driven and thus does better with us where Joe is some numbers some his own formula whatever that is.

This year from a pure numbers standpoint, we sit really well positioned across all the different metrics and ratings. The two single negatives are road record and quad 1 record. Everything else is strong.So if Jerry is the right one on us then it's crystal clear that quad 1 and road/neutral record is the key.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[20plus]

 

[Owens guy]

Wow. I just looked at Drake’s team sheet. If they’re in the field, this process is insane and the committee has lost its mind. Their whole resume is based on one 1-point victory at home over Loyola Chicago in mid-Feb when they played them in back to back days, and Loyola beat them in the first game by almost 30 points. Their 3 next best wins are all against Missouri State, which is 97 in the NET. basically all their other victories are sub 100. They may have a gaudy record but their strength of schedule should disqualify them. They should NOT be in. Has anyone seen them play? Do they pass the eye test? I guess it doesn’t even mean much when they’re playing weak competition.

I’ve seen Drake play several times this season because my wife went there. Drake has a 6 10” Seton Hall transfer at center Brodie that is pretty good but doesn’t dominate like he should in this league (7.7 points). Two of Drake’s best players were injured late in the season but the highest scorer Hemphill (14.1 points) is expected back for tourney. Drake is more athletic/faster than Syracuse but they aren’t a great 3 point shooting team. Drake passes the eye test of being a NCAA team. I can provide a better analysis if Syracuse plays Drake.

 

[bballbeadle]

Exactly.

People forget that many were writing off the season a month ago, questioning whethere we would even make the NIT.

When the season began, I was indifferent. When we started playing like crap, I changed from indifferent to traumatized. Couldn’t bear to watch a game (but did). When we started playing better, it piqued my interest. Then I began to feel excited. Then I began to hope!

Now I’m a nervous wreck. I’m back to normal!

 

[NineOneSeven]

Davis took a quick pot shot in closing saying they were all 6 ft. and above.

Had to get it in. Jack@$$.

That’s funny. Far more jack@$$ is the comment that led to him making that sort of joke!

 

[20plus]

SUtomcat- what has changed your mind from where we stood this time yesterday? Understanding Georgetown and Oregon State were two bid stealers, I also believe Wichita State pretty much cancels out one of those !

Where did you think we lost 3 to 5 other slots

 

[jncuse]

Wow. I just looked at Drake’s team sheet. If they’re in the field, this process is insane and the committee has lost its mind. Their whole resume is based on one 1-point victory at home over Loyola Chicago in mid-Feb when they played them in back to back days, and Loyola beat them in the first game by almost 30 points. Their 3 next best wins are all against Missouri State, which is 97 in the NET. basically all their other victories are sub 100. They may have a gaudy record but their strength of schedule should disqualify them. They should NOT be in. Has anyone seen them play? Do they pass the eye test? I guess it doesn’t even mean much when they’re playing weak competition.

So basically you are just going to pick teams based on their biggest win. Sort of silly when some teams have 3 times as many opportunities for those types of win as others. If you are going to base selections of the "biggest win" when those teams have opportunities that others do not why even bother even considering at larges from outside the top 7 or so conferences.

Drake is 6-2 in Q1+Q2 games. They have a NET of 46, a KP of 53, which justifies at least getting consideration and possibly the benefit of the doubt over a P5 team that goes 1-6 or 2-7 or 2-6 in Q1 games.

Drake will be an interesting one. One of the reasons for the change to the "NET" was to give a better number to analyze these mid-major schools because the RPI was totally unreliable in that regard. Some mid-majors were getting RPI's in the 40s that made no sense.

I'm not even saying Drake should be in over Syracuse. But they deserve careful consideration. If they miss, they miss -- they are a tough case that could go either way.

 

[Orangezoo]

View attachment 197983

We will see if they follow their own guidance or not. I've seen this then you look in 2019 and all I can say is the formula is still not exactly clear. If they do follow this, then we would be in good shape too given outside of road/neutral we are equal or better.

 

[jncuse]

I’ve seen Drake play several times this season because my wife went there. Drake has a 6 10” Seton Hall transfer at center Brodie that is pretty good but doesn’t dominate like he should in this league (7.7 points). Two of Drake’s best players were injured late in the season but the highest scorer Hemphill (14.1 points) is expected back for tourney. Drake is more athletic/faster than Syracuse but they aren’t a great 3 point shooting team. Drake passes the eye test of being a NCAA team. I can provide a better analysis if Syracuse plays Drake.

Some have mentioned they only have one Q1 win. For the benefit of Syracuse we better hope the Committee doesn't use that as a baseline for dismissal!!!

 

[pearl31]

So basically you are just going to pick teams based on their biggest win. Sort of silly when some teams have 3 times as many opportunities for those types of win as others. If you are going to base selections of the "biggest win" when those teams have opportunities that others do not why even bother even considering at larges from outside the top 7 conferences.

Drake is 6-2 in Q1+Q2 games. They have a NET of 46, a KP of 53, which justifies at least getting consideration and possibly the benefit of the doubt over a P5 team that goes 1-6 or 2-7 or 2-6 in Q1 games.

where u got us as of right now, jn?

 

[Briancuse]

Can someone explain to me why we keep dropping on the bracket matrix? What

 

[jdubs30]

So basically you are just going to pick teams based on their biggest win. Sort of silly when some teams have 3 times as many opportunities for those types of win as others. If you are going to base selections of the "biggest win" when those teams have opportunities that others do not why even bother even considering at larges from outside the top 7 or so conferences.

Drake is 6-2 in Q1+Q2 games. They have a NET of 46, a KP of 53, which justifies at least getting consideration and possibly the benefit of the doubt over a P5 team that goes 1-6 or 2-7 or 2-6 in Q1 games.

Drake will be an interesting one. One of the reasons for the change to the "NET" was to give a better number to analyze these mid-major schools because the RPI was totally unreliable in that regard. Some mid-majors were getting RPI's in the 40s that made no sense.

But what’s our Q1+Q2 record?

 

[walsh2012]

Can someone explain to me why we keep dropping on the bracket matrix? What

we've actually gone up a spot since last night

 

[jncuse]

Can someone explain to me why we keep dropping on the bracket matrix? What

Georgetown and Oregon St taking away two spots, will move everyone down two spots, and bubble teams will lose some "votes".

 

[bpo57]

Setting aside the merits of whether Drake deserves a bid, I would jump for joy if SU drew them in a play in game. They lost their two best players (Penn definitely and Hemphill most likely) for the season. I've watched them play at least 3-4x since those guys went out and they're a very weak team. They scrap and hustle but extremely challenged on the offensive end. Very mediocre outside shooting and nothing special in terms of inside threats or overpowering on the glass.

 

[Briancuse]

we've actually gone up a spot since last night

I mean on number of brackets we were on 121 now down to 83.

 

[Orangemen]

I mean on number of brackets we were on 121 now down to 83.

For whatever reason the max number of brackets right now is 100.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

I mean on number of brackets we were on 121 now down to 83.

right now the max number of brackets for any team is 100. guessing the website is only accepting brackets that have been updated in the previous 12 hours or so.

 

[walsh2012]

I mean on number of brackets we were on 121 now down to 83.

ah ok

 

[Orangezoo]

So basically you are just going to pick teams based on their biggest win. Sort of silly when some teams have 3 times as many opportunities for those types of win as others. If you are going to base selections of the "biggest win" when those teams have opportunities that others do not why even bother even considering at larges from outside the top 7 or so conferences.

Drake is 6-2 in Q1+Q2 games. They have a NET of 46, a KP of 53, which justifies at least getting consideration and possibly the benefit of the doubt over a P5 team that goes 1-6 or 2-7 or 2-6 in Q1 games.

Drake will be an interesting one. One of the reasons for the change to the "NET" was to give a better number to analyze these mid-major schools because the RPI was totally unreliable in that regard. Some mid-majors were getting RPI's in the 40s that made no sense.

There is a challenge here though. What determines whether a league gets two bids vs 1? Drake has to lean on conference play exclusively. The MVC was essentially two teams with Mizzou St hanging in the top 100.

When you get to these smaller leagues it's just so difficult to figure this out. Look at the Horizon. Wright St is 71 in the Net and would have a similar profile to Drake if say Cleveland St was top 20 Net and they beat them. Drake is in effect in the conversation as a at large because of beating Loyola once. I am neither for or against the small conference at large argument just pointing out that Drake isn't exactly on their own here. Look at Colgate even.. pandemic has broken their numbers but as a top ten Net, sitting at 13-1 they are really a smaller sample size, loyola win from at large consideration.

 

[All4SU]

Pfizer
Moderna
Johnson & Johnson
Astra Zeneca

Well it won’t be Washington, Lincoln Adams and Jefferson.