The Annual Bubble Discussion Thread - 2021 Version

[sutomcat]

SUtomcat- what has changed your mind from where we stood this time yesterday? Understanding Georgetown and Oregon State were two bid stealers, I also believe Wichita State pretty much cancels out one of those !

Where did you think we lost 3 to 5 other slots

I thought we were somewhere in the last 3 to 5 range yesterday morning.

Conference champs cannot play in the at large PIGs. That means whenever a team comes out of nowhere to win a conference tournament, two things happen:

1) the last in at large team loses their spot to the Cinderella team
2) the last team with an at large bye moves into the at large lay in group

So when Georgetown won, all the at large byes moved down a spot. And when Oregon State won, they all moved down another spot.

Yes Wichita State lost. That may or may not have moved them below us. It may have knocked them out of the tournament period.

In most of the brackets I am looking, Syracuse is somewhere in the last 4 in. For some, we are the last team in. I think a day ago, we were on average 2 spots higher.

If Cincinnati wins, the last team in drops out of the field and every drops another slot down, because Cincy is not eligible to play in the PIG.

If we happen to be the last team in right now, we could be left out of the field.

Make sense?

 

[Briancuse]

right now the max number of brackets for any team is 100. guessing the website is only accepting brackets that have been updated in the previous 12 hours or so.

Ok ty I feel better now.

 

[jncuse]

where u got us as of right now, jn?

Even when I followed things more closely I was not particularly adept at making the final choices. And this year I have not followed things at all.

So I will answer more from an observational perspective rather than nit picking resumes.

I would have Syracuse 90%+ as of now (with no bid steals), and its just based on history of seeing how non Big 6 conferences are generally treated.

From my experiences here is what I have learned, if we compare the matrix to the final selections:
1) I was one, like many on the matrix, that would generally give "benefit of the doubt" to non P5+BE schools and those would tend to be my misses.
2) If you look at teams that were in per the matrix in prior years but were ultimately excluded, there is a significantly higher proportion of mid-majors.
3) (Group 3 Schools) Based on how it stand now, 3 of the following teams would have to be above Syracuse for Syracuse to miss -- Drake, Utah St, Wichita St, Colorado St, Ole Miss, St Louis, Boise St, Memphis.
4) Number 3 assumes that we are below all of Louisville, UCLA, Michigan St,

If we look at #3 there is not many P5+BE schools there. And those are not the type of schools the committee has been kind to.

If there are no bubble stealers today, I would say we are above 90% based on how the committee has treated those other group #3 schools historically. Even with 2 bid steals I would have us at 60%+.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Well it won’t be Washington, Lincoln Adams and Jefferson.

Or Crosby, Stills, Nash, and Young.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

If there are no bubble stealers today, I would say we are above 90% based on how the committee has treated those other group #3 schools historically. Even with 2 bid steals I would have us at 60%+.

There can only be 1 bid steal today, right?

 

[OrangeXtreme]

There can only be 1 bid steal today, right?

Just Cinci

 

[Orangezoo]

Just Cinci

Yeah VCU is pretty much guaranteed a spot imho. Also they played a couple bubble teams early beating both Utah St and Memphis. Gotta figure that is key here for all 3 of them if there is a bid steal.

 

[All4SU]

I thought we were somewhere in the last 3 to 5 range yesterday morning.

Conference champs cannot play in the at large PIGs. That means whenever a team comes out of nowhere to win a conference tournament, two things happen:

1) the last in at large team loses their spot to the Cinderella team
2) the last team with an at large bye moves into the at large lay in group

So when Georgetown won, all the at large byes moved down a spot. And when Oregon State won, they all moved down another spot.

Yes Wichita State lost. That may or may not have moved them below us. It may have knocked them out of the tournament period.

In most of the brackets I am looking, Syracuse is somewhere in the last 4 in. For some, we are the last team in. I think a day ago, we were on average 2 spots higher.

If Cincinnati wins, the last team in drops out of the field and every drops another slot down, because Cincy is not eligible to play in the PIG.

If we happen to be the last team in right now, we could be left out of the field.

Make sense?

 

[jncuse]

Setting aside the merits of whether Drake deserves a bid, I would jump for joy if SU drew them in a play in game. They lost their two best players (Penn definitely and Hemphill most likely) for the season. I've watched them play at least 3-4x since those guys went out and they're a very weak team. They scrap and hustle but extremely challenged on the offensive end. Very mediocre outside shooting and nothing special in terms of inside threats or overpowering on the glass.

Interesting point on Drake regarding the injured players. Seems like the committee is always looking for reasons to exclude these types of teams and that could be enough to exclude them.

 

[Chris02M]

also on my s curve if vcu wins they swap with st bonaventure

 

[bpo57]

Ian Eagle and Jim Spanarkel - the best duo in college hoops out there.

 

[samspann1]

didn't #0 from VCU just shove Ossunyi after Ossunyi blocked his shot out of bounds?

How is that not a tech?

 

[jncuse]

There is a challenge here though. What determines whether a league gets two bids vs 1? Drake has to lean on conference play exclusively. The MVC was essentially two teams with Mizzou St hanging in the top 100.

When you get to these smaller leagues it's just so difficult to figure this out. Look at the Horizon. Wright St is 71 in the Net and would have a similar profile to Drake if say Cleveland St was top 20 Net and they beat them. Drake is in effect in the conversation as a at large because of beating Loyola once. I am neither for or against the small conference at large argument just pointing out that Drake isn't exactly on their own here. Look at Colgate even.. pandemic has broken their numbers but as a top ten Net, sitting at 13-1 they are really a smaller sample size, loyola win from at large consideration.

The NET due to the sample does seem to be a little wacky this year.

You will never be able to compare schools like Drake to a P5 school with the traditional metrics. The traditional metrics (Q1+Q2) are really done to compare P5+BE schools against each other. They are biased, but probably not intentionally biased against smaller schools.

The only way to fairly compare Drake to P5 schools is if you have faith in that individual number be it NET / KP as a fair measure. The RPI was certainly not that number.

In discussing teams like Drake, self admittedly I am biased in terms of what I would prefer. I want these types of schools that do well across all analytics (NET / KP), to get the benefit of the doubt over a team that is .500 in a power conference that has plenty of chances to prove they are elite and loses most of those games.

But I also know my bias of what I want, does not match what the NCAA does.

 

[walsh2012]

I hope they leak the bracket like in 16 so i dont have to stress for another 4.5 hours

 

[jdubs30]

I hope they leak the bracket like in 16 so i dont have to stress for another 4.5 hours

The bracket leak was minutes befire the show tho... it wasn’t this early

 

[jncuse]

There can only be 1 bid steal today, right?

Thanks for clarifying that. Another example of not following closely enough this year!.

I think I have watched less than 5 games of college basketball all year (including Syracuse)

 

[Orangezoo]

The NET due to the sample does seem to be a little wacky this year.

You will never be able to compare schools like Drake to a P5 school with the traditional metrics. The traditional metrics (Q1+Q2) are really done to compare P5+BE schools against each other. They are biased, but probably not intentionally biased against smaller schools.

The only way to fairly compare Drake to P5 schools is if you have faith in that individual number be it NET / KP as a fair measure. The RPI was certainly not that number.

In discussing teams like Drake, self admittedly I am biased in terms of what I would prefer. I want these types of schools that do well across all analytics (NET / KP), to get the benefit of the doubt over a team that is .500 in a power conference that has plenty of chances to prove they are elite and loses most of those games.

But I also know my bias of what I want, does not match what the NCAA does.

I am not sure development of such a metric is ever feasible. There will always be a gap in the competition and thus you are stuck in trying to build something that normalizes everyone's metrics. It would be more ideal to set some non conference scheduling requirements that directly tied to eligibility for the tournament from an at large standpoint. That then has to work financially and logistically.

I know they do the bracket buster stuff in previous years and honestly I would love to see that be utilized a bit more robustly if possible and provide the opportunities for resume building.

 

[Cuse1055]

Have to assume the team is feeling good or else I don’t think they would have Tweeted this:

 

[djorange1989]

I think it helps a lot that there really aren’t any smaller conference teams with overwhelming resumes that they just have to be included in the at large field. Obviously the lack of OOC games killed them.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

Have to assume the team is feeling good or else I don’t think they would have Tweeted this:

I would infer nothing from this tweet

 

[walsh2012]

The bracket leak was minutes befire the show tho... it wasn’t this early

Fair point but i’m still hoping

 

[Briancuse]

The bracket leak was minutes befire the show tho... it wasn’t this early

One of these days it's bound to happen.

 

[jncuse]

I am not sure development of such a metric is ever feasible. There will always be a gap in the competition and thus you are stuck in trying to build something that normalizes everyone's metrics. It would be more ideal to set some non conference scheduling requirements that directly tied to eligibility for the tournament from an at large standpoint. That then has to work financially and logistically.

I know they do the bracket buster stuff in previous years and honestly I would love to see that be utilized a bit more robustly if possible and provide the opportunities for resume building.

Regarding the forced scheduling. In theory that would help.

But remember who it would probably help the most -- not the P5 schools. The P5 Schools seem to benefit from the current selection system the most so no push for change from them,

 

[Scooch]

Have to assume the team is feeling good or else I don’t think they would have Tweeted this:

They may be feeling good, but it’s just marketing.

 

[Consigliere]

I thought we were somewhere in the last 3 to 5 range yesterday morning.

Conference champs cannot play in the at large PIGs. That means whenever a team comes out of nowhere to win a conference tournament, two things happen:

1) the last in at large team loses their spot to the Cinderella team
2) the last team with an at large bye moves into the at large lay in group

So when Georgetown won, all the at large byes moved down a spot. And when Oregon State won, they all moved down another spot.

Trying to wrap my head around what happens if the bid stealer with the AQ is seeded below the AL play in games participants. Lunardi has Georgetown a 12 seed. Assume if Cincy pulls the upset they will be around the same. Did that escalate an AQ who was a 12-15 seed before up to a 10 and bounce one at large team to the PIG and another out of the tournament?